以下文章来源于油市小蓝莓 ，作者汤剑林 油市小蓝莓 . 紫金天风期货能化团队 文 | 汤剑林 来源 | 油市小蓝莓 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 甲醇作为基础的化工原料之一，甲醇价格的波动直接反应了甲醇真实的供需状况。通过对甲醇过去14年牛熊转折复盘，我们发现甲 醇价格在大周期上与能源价格波动基本一致，同时甲醇价格也受到自身产能周期和需求周期的影响。复盘总结以下几点： （1）甲醇价格是宏观和供需共同作用结果，宏观驱动和供需驱动同向，价格更容易出现趋势行情。宏观决定供需，供需也体现宏 观。 （2）甲醇供应端季节性因素相对明显，导致甲醇价格在四季度到一季度初出现反弹的概率较大。但近两年，甲醇季节性逻辑在逐渐 转弱，主要由于甲醇传统需求旺季季节性逻辑转弱叠加进口增量冲击。 （3）进口量对价格影响的比重在逐渐增大。近年来国内甲醇市场供应增量有限，但由于下游产能的持续释放，内地市场成为紧平衡 的市场，供需缺口需要进口来补充，近三年甲醇进口相对以前明显增加，这直接体现到港口库存上，对价格的影响比重增加。 （4）未来两年甲醇市场的逻辑可能在于国产和进口的博弈。 十四年行情回顾 01 甲醇期货于2011年10月28 ...

Summary of Industry Research on Coal Chemical Industry Industry Overview - The coal chemical industry in China dominates globally, accounting for over 90% of the installations and capacity due to China's coal-based energy structure aimed at replacing part of oil and gas demand for energy self-sufficiency [1][4] - The coal chemical industry chain includes three pathways: coking (coke and by-products), gasification (synthetic ammonia, methanol, etc.), and liquefaction, with liquefied products directly competing with oil products, heavily relying on the oil market for pricing and profitability [1][9] Key Points and Arguments - **Policy Impact**: The industry is influenced by policies affecting the raw material end (industrial electricity), production end (energy consumption regulation, new capacity restrictions, environmental protection), industry structure (upgrading backward capacity), and product end (supply guarantee and price stability) [1][6] - **Capacity Expansion**: Since 2021, capacity expansion in the coal chemical industry has been driven by the realization of existing indicators and the application of new technologies, although energy consumption dual control policies have lowered expectations for new capacity, benefiting the profits of leading enterprises [1][12] - **Coking Industry**: The coking sector is affected by steel demand, with weak pricing power for by-products, high price volatility, and significant cost differences between companies due to high industry fragmentation [1][13] - **Gasification Sector**: The gasification industry focuses on synthetic ammonia, methanol, and urea, experiencing process upgrades and scale expansion, leading to increased cost differences among companies, while overall profitability is pressured by supply and demand [1][14] - **Liquefaction Challenges**: The liquefaction sector faces challenges such as reliance on industrial electricity, high energy consumption regulations, and the need for upgrading backward capacity, which affects supply [6][9] Additional Important Insights - **Pricing Mechanisms**: Synthetic ammonia pricing is primarily driven by domestic supply and demand, while methanol pricing is influenced by oil prices, exhibiting a "coal-oil linkage" characteristic [2][15] - **Future Challenges and Opportunities**: The coal chemical industry will face challenges such as tightened policies limiting new project approvals, which may alleviate existing overcapacity while raising overall profit margins and reducing cyclical volatility, benefiting leading enterprises [16][17] - **Technological Upgrades**: Adoption of advanced processes to replace outdated equipment can lower unit costs and enhance competitiveness, although smaller enterprises may struggle due to resource constraints [17] - **Market Dynamics**: Changes in downstream demand will directly impact the development of various segments, with synthetic ammonia dependent on stable agricultural demand and methanol needing to monitor international oil market dynamics [17]