1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, the methanol market will maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with the price center likely to continue moving downward. Although downstream new capacity is still being put into operation at a relatively high rate and methanol demand shows some resilience, the real - estate sector will still be in an adjustment phase, dragging down methanol demand. Meanwhile, domestic planned new methanol capacity is large, imports will remain at a relatively high level, and coal prices will stabilize at a low level. Methanol supply pressure is high, and the overall demand is under pressure [11]. - For trading strategies, short - selling on rallies is recommended, with a pressure level of 2250. For options, selling call options is advised [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Annual View and Strategy - **Macro and Coal Prices**: The global economic growth rate is slowing down, and the domestic real - estate industry is still in a slump. Coal supply may be restricted under safety supervision policies, thermal coal demand is flat, chemical coal demand increases, and coal prices will mainly remain stable [11]. - **View on Methanol Market**: In 2026, the methanol market will face high supply pressure and weak demand. The price center is likely to continue to decline. The recommended trading strategy is to go short on rallies, with a pressure level of 2250, and sell call options [11]. 3.2 Market Review and Technical Analysis - **Market Review**: In 2025, the methanol price showed a volatile downward trend. From January to June, new domestic methanol capacity was put into operation intensively, and high port inventory and a weak macro - environment led to a downward trend. From June to July, the price rebounded due to low port inventory and external events, and then fell back. From August to the present, a large increase in imports and high port inventory led to a continuous decline [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The technical trend of methanol is weak, with a pressure level of 2250 and a support level of 1950 [30]. 3.3 Macro and Coal Prices - **Macro**: The global economic growth rate is expected to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. China's economy shows strong resilience, with an expected growth rate of 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. China's foreign trade has maintained year - on - year growth for 10 consecutive months as of November [40]. - **Coal**: The raw coal production rate is low, and production is restricted. In the first half of 2025, raw coal production increased, but in the second half, it decreased year - on - year. Coal and lignite imports decreased by 10.9% year - on - year. Thermal coal demand decreased, while chemical coal demand increased. Coal prices may remain stable, with a downward trend in the first half of 2025 and a rebound in the second half [46][56]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price and Basis**: The Taicang methanol spot price has fallen to a five - year low, and the basis has fluctuated [62]. - **Domestic Spread and Freight**: Coastal methanol spot prices are weaker than inland prices due to high port inventory [65]. - **International Methanol and Natural Gas Prices**: International methanol prices mainly declined in 2025 [71]. - **Inter - contract Spread**: Recently, due to slow unloading, port inventory has decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread has rebounded from a low level [79]. - **Related Product Ratios**: The ratio of methanol to urea has remained at a relatively high level, and the ratio of methanol to liquefied petroleum gas decreased to a relatively low level in the fourth quarter [83]. 3.5 Industrial Chain Profits - **Import Profit and Trade Margin**: Import profit and the trade margin from Inner Mongolia to East China have fluctuated [88][90]. - **Coal - to - Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol production profit is at a five - year high [99]. - **Natural Gas and Coke Oven Gas - to - Methanol Production Profit**: Natural gas and coke oven gas - to - methanol production profit is at a five - year low [104]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Profit**: Methanol - to - olefin profit still shows a large - scale loss [112]. - **Traditional Downstream Profit**: Traditional downstream profits are poor and at a five - year low [116][121]. 3.6 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: From January to November 2025, China's methanol production was 9.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.1%, a 2% increase compared to the same period last year [130]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: From August to October 2025, methanol imports increased by 30% year - on - year [136]. - **New Capacity in 2025 and 2026**: In 2025, China's new methanol capacity was about 7.43 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3%. In 2026, the planned new capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with an increase of about 7.3% [139][140]. 3.7 Demand Side - **Apparent Consumption of Methanol**: From January to October 2025, methanol apparent consumption was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.67% [146]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Production**: The MTO operating rate is 90.2%, at a high level [150]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rate**: The traditional downstream operating rate is low [154][158]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: Downstream new capacity is being put into operation at a relatively high rate, and the corresponding methanol consumption is 10.52 million tons, indicating some resilience in methanol demand [173]. 3.8 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of December 10, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,800 tons, at a relatively low level and showing narrow fluctuations [179]. - **Port Inventory**: As of December 10, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1.2344 million tons, remaining at a high level [182].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and methanol continues to be weak. Coal mine production has recovered, with the coal price at the mine mouth continuing to decline due to weakening demand. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant, with high and stable methanol production rates. The import volume is expected to increase in September, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, while the MTO device operation rate has rebounded. Although there are some factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the strong rebound of domestic commodities, the rebound height of methanol is limited due to the increase in supply and the record - high port inventory [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: The coal price has rebounded during the coal demand peak season, but the domestic methanol supply is still abundant. The MTO operation rate is stable, and the port demand is stable. The Middle - East situation is unclear, and the impact of various factors on methanol futures is significant, but the rebound height is limited [4] - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, short at high levels and do not chase short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of September 18, the overall domestic methanol device operation rate was 72.66%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from last week and 0.61 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operation rate was 65.48%, a decrease of 1.06 percentage points from last week [5] - **Supply - International**: The international (ex - China) methanol production was 991,409 tons, a decrease of 61,600 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 67.96%, a decrease of 4.22% from last week. Multiple overseas devices had issues such as parking and load reduction [5] - **Supply - Import**: As of September 17, 2025, 14:00, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 35.44 tons during the period [5] - **Demand - MTO**: As of September 18, 2025, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 83.24%, an increase of 18.55 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operation rate was 84.89% [5] - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 6.29%, a month - on - month increase of 29.42%; the acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 82.41%, with a slight decrease in capacity utilization rate this week; the formaldehyde operation rate was 42.92% [5] - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 4.59 tons, a decrease of 4.39 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month decrease of 48.89% [5] - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The production enterprise inventory was 34.05 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60%; the sample enterprise order backlog was 23.38 tons, a decrease of 1.69 tons from the previous period [5] - **Inventory - Ports**: As of September 17, 2025, the total Chinese methanol port inventory was 155.78 tons, an increase of 0.75 tons from the previous period [5] - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi was around 660 yuan/ton. The port - north line price difference was 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis weakened [5] - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang was 2280 (+30), and the price in the north line was 2100 (+60) [8]

Core Viewpoint - Methanol prices reflect the real supply and demand situation, influenced by macroeconomic factors and seasonal supply dynamics, with increasing importance of imports in recent years [5][6][38]. Group 1: Historical Review of Methanol Market - Methanol futures were listed on October 28, 2011, and have experienced various cycles of price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [7]. - From 2011 to 2012, the market showed narrow fluctuations, with a gradual recovery in participation [8]. - In 2013, methanol prices initially fell due to weak market sentiment but rebounded later in the year due to seasonal demand and reduced overseas supply [8]. - The years 2014 to 2017 saw a significant impact from macroeconomic factors, with domestic GDP growth slowing from 9.5% in 2011 to 6.9% in 2015, affecting demand [15]. - The period from 2018 to 2019 was characterized by strong demand driven by the real estate sector, despite limited supply growth due to supply-side reforms [21][23]. - The years 2020 to 2023 were marked by significant price volatility driven by cost factors, particularly coal prices, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply and demand [27][30]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Since Q4 2023, methanol prices have entered a narrow fluctuation range, influenced by global trade dynamics and geopolitical factors [33]. - The domestic methanol market is experiencing limited supply growth, while downstream demand continues to expand, leading to a tight balance in the market [33]. - The next two years may see a competitive dynamic between domestic production and imports, with the potential for domestic prices to be supported by local market conditions while facing pressure from imported supplies [39].