2025 年 08 月 25 日 硝酸、硫酸等涨幅居前，建议关注进口替代、纯 内需、高股息等方向 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：高铭谦 S1050124080006 gaomq@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) 6.3 18.0 48.0 沪深 300 6.1 12.8 31.6 市场表现 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《基础化工行业周报：工业级碳 酸锂、硫酸等涨幅居前，建议关注 进口替代、纯内需、高股息等方 向》2025-08-18 2、《基础化工行业周报：(磷酸)五 氧化二磷、尿素等涨幅居前，建议 关注进口替代、纯内需、高股息等 方向》2025-08-11 3、《基础化工行业周报：环氧氯丙 烷、(磷酸)五氧化二磷等涨幅居 前，建议关注进口替代、纯内需、 高股息等方向》2025-08-07 ▌硝酸、硫酸等涨幅居前，合成氨、丁酮等跌幅较大 本周涨幅较大的产品：液氯（华东地区，866.67 ...

【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日 尿素周报：盘面回归基本面 摘要：上周尿素盘面冲高回落，周一开盘低开高走，小幅收涨。周末以 来，上游工厂降价吸单，市场活跃度不高。周末以来，尿素价格呈现震 荡下行波动趋势，需求依旧弱势，今日山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗 粒尿素出厂成交价格范围多在 1650-1680 元/吨，较上周五普遍下滑 60- 70 元/吨。基本面来看，尿素工厂本周计划停车企业多，预计产量继续 下行为主，目前日产维持在 19 万吨左右波动，河南心连心，山西潞安 等本周有检修计划。需求端，近期复合肥工厂开工已至历史同期高位， 后续攀升高度有限，近期受阅兵环保限产的影响，复合肥工厂出现限产 减产情况，开工负荷略有下调，后续将复产，但整体增量有限，需求呈 现韧性，厂内成品库存近两个月位于五年同期高位水平，工厂无出货压 力，集中备肥概率低；其他工业需求也多受环保限产问题而减产停车。 内需不足，产量又增加，库存表现为累库，且目前位于近五年高位，大 量库存压制行情上涨空间。整体来说，本次出口利多情绪基本兑现消化， 而内需不足拖累盘面下滑走弱，九月印标情况或还将对市场有影响。目 前供需呈现双弱，盘 ...

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱利润端持续恶化 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2601 价格在1289-1413 元/吨之间运行， 价格震荡整理。 截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2601 下跌 69 元/吨，周度涨跌-4.95%，报收 1326 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率双增，截止到 2025 年 8 月 21 日， 国内纯碱产量 77.14 万吨，环比增加 1.01 万吨。纯碱综合产能利 用率 88.48%，前一周 87.32%，环比增加 1.15%。 尽管纯碱利润端持续恶化，但行业尚未出现大规模、深度亏 损。相关政策（如 2016 年的供给侧改革）通常需要在大面积亏损 导致企业现金流断裂时，才倒逼强力去产能。目前可能还未到那 个阶段。同时，短期终端需 ...

中信证券股份有限公司 关于 保荐机构（联席主承销商） 广东省深圳市福田区中心三路 8 号卓越时代广场（二期）北座 二〇二五年八月 湖北双环科技股份有限公司 2023 年度向特定对象发行 A 股股票之上市保荐书 声 明 中信证券股份有限公司接受湖北双环科技股份有限公司的委托，担任湖北双 环科技股份有限公司向特定对象发行 A 股股票的保荐机构，为本次发行出具上 市保荐书。 保荐机构及指定的保荐代表人根据《中华人民共和国公司法》 湖北双环科技股份有限公司 （以下简称"《公 之 上市保荐书 司法》"）、《中华人民共和国证券法》（以下简称"《证券法》"）、《上市 公司证券发行注册管理办法》（以下简称"《注册管理办法》"）等有关法律、 法规和中国证券监督管理委员会（以下简称"中国证监会"）、深圳证券交易所 （以下简称"深交所"）的有关规定，诚实守信，勤勉尽责，严格按照依法制订 的业务规则、行业执业规范和道德准则出具上市保荐书，并保证所出具文件的真 实性、准确性和完整性。 湖北双环科技股份有限公司 2023 年度 向特定对象发行 A 股股票之上市保荐书 目 录 一、中信证券或其控股股东、实际控制人、重要关联方持有或者通过参 ...

证券研究报告 基础化工周报：受出口端影响，尿素价格波动运行 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年8月24日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业均价为17950/15580/15489元/吨，环比分别+10/-210/-515元/吨， 纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业毛利分别为4577/3241/4619元/吨，环比分别+5/-238/+121元/吨。 ◼ 【油煤气烯烃板块】①本周乙烷/丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1118/4076/495/4123元/吨，环比分别 +16/+111/+0/+62元/吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为7811元/吨，环比+34元/吨，乙烷裂解/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚乙烯理 论利润分别为1349/1932/58元/吨，环比分别+4/+19/-43元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为6990元/吨，环比-10元/吨 ...

答：尊敬的投资者，您好！公司合成氨制气节能环保 升级改造项目已于 2025 年上半年顺利验收并投产达效。 该项目优化了公司产能结构，提升了公司节能环保水平， 长期将为降本增效奠定坚实基础。由于项目已转固金额 11.65 亿元，项目的机器设备采用双倍余额递减法进行加 速折旧，短期内较大的折旧金额对利润形成阶段性影响， 随着折旧金额逐年减少，项目效益将逐年释放。谢谢关注！ 3、行业"反内卷"政策和海外产能退出对公司细分 领域竞争格局有何影响？公司如何利用区位优势扩大市 场份额？ 证券代码：001217 证券简称：华尔泰 答：尊敬的投资者，您好！行业"反内卷"政策和海 外产能退出对公司细分领域竞争格局的影响主要表现在 两方面：一是行业结构性优化进程加速，优质企业竞争环 境将持续改善；二是国内市场供给冲击有望减弱，有利于 提升公司在细分领域的竞争地位。面对这样的市场环境， 公司正从多维度发力以提升核心竞争力，包括优化采购策 略与供应链管理以降低成本，强化生产装置运行管理与工 艺改进以提升生产效率和产品质量，以及依托海关 AEO 高 级认证优势拓展海外市场及进出口业务。公司生产基地地 处长三角经济带，能够迅速响应市场需 ...

证券代码：600096 证券简称：云天化 公告编号：临 2025-063 备注：以上主要产品数据为公司自产产品数据，未包含本期商贸收入及其他 业务收入和其他零星产品收入。 二、主要产品和原材料的价格变动情况 （一）主要产品价格波动情况（不含税销售均价） 单位：元/吨 | 主要产品 | 本期价格 | 上年同期价格 | | --- | --- | --- | | 磷肥 | 3,152 | 3,378 | | 复合（混）肥 | 3,179 | 2,985 | | 尿素 | 1,754 | 2,176 | | 聚甲醛 | 10,650 | 11,577 | | 黄磷 | 20,627 | 20,460 | | 饲料级磷酸氢钙 | 4,096 | 3,381 | （二）主要原材料波动情况（不含税采购均价） | | | 云南云天化股份有限公司 2025 年半年度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信 息披露》相关规定，将公司 2025 年半年度主要经营 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, the urea futures market showed a trend of first decline and then rise, with an overall increase. The spot market had a slow start in the first half - week, and the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders. In the second half - week, the factory orders were sufficient, and the prices stabilized. The overall market trading sentiment was lukewarm. - The supply of urea increased last week, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to rise next week. The high inventory level in recent five years restricts the upward space of urea prices. - The domestic demand is in a slack period, but the industrial demand has resilience, and the export to India and the Indian tender price provide support. The urea price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term with no obvious boost [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half - week, the domestic demand in the urea spot market was weak, and the upstream factories lowered their quotes. The situation of attracting orders at low prices was acceptable. In the second half - week, the factories had sufficient pending orders, and the quotes were stable. The market trading sentiment was lukewarm. Since the weekend, the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, but the market activity was low [3]. b) Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume last week was 1,025.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 479.45 million tons; the open interest was 614.14 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.92 million tons. Currently, the futures price fluctuates between 1,700 - 1,790 yuan/ton. - Last week, the increase of urea futures was stronger than that of the spot, and the basis weakened. As of August 18, the basis of the 01 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. - On August 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,573, a week - on - week decrease of 50 [6][8]. c) Urea Supply - side - Last week, the weekly output of urea increased. From August 7 - 13, the weekly output of urea was 1.3486 million tons, an increase of 20,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The average daily output was 192,700 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons week - on - week. Among them, the coal - based weekly output was 1.059 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22%; the gas - based weekly output was 289,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99%. The output of small and medium - sized particles increased by 4.00% week - on - week, and the output of large - sized particles decreased by 8.50% week - on - week. - Next week, it is expected that 1 - 2 enterprises plan to stop production, and 3 - 5 enterprises will resume production. As of August 18, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 194,200 tons, and the operating rate was 82.69%. - In the raw material market, the coal supply was tight, which boosted the coal price. As of August 18, the quotation of Qinhuangdao steam - coal Q5500 was 697 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the price of anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng market remained flat at 900 yuan/ton. The price of domestic liquefied natural gas decreased last week. As of August 18, the benchmark price was 4,040 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. - Last week, the price of synthetic ammonia decreased. As of August 15, the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,180 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of urea decreased last week. The price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong was 480 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol increased. As of August 15, the quotation of methanol was 2,390 yuan/ton, and the price difference between methanol and urea was 690 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 55 yuan/ton [12][14][15]. d) Urea Demand - side - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat. As of August 15, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating load has continued to rise to the high level of the same period in history. The finished product inventory in the factory has been at a high level for several months. During the initial stage of autumn compound fertilizer production, there is no pressure for compound fertilizer factories to purchase raw materials. From August 8 - 14, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 43.48%, an increase of 1.98 percentage points from the previous week, and 3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. - From August 8 - 14, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points from the previous period, and 17.82 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, summer maintenance started, and there are still maintenance plans in the future. The terminal panel furniture market is sluggish, affected by the real estate industry. - As of August 15, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 7.86%, and 520,200 tons higher than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous week [17][19]. e) International Market - After China started urea exports, the tight supply situation in the international urea market began to ease. Currently, the inventory in India is still low, and it is expected to start another import tender around September. The tender demand from India provides support for the global urea market. It is expected that China's exports will end in October, and Brazil's imports are expected to resume in September. - India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, targeting to purchase 2 million tons (1 million tons each for the east and west coasts). The bid closing date is September 2, the bid validity period is September 10, and the shipping date is October 31. - As of August 15, the FOB price of small - sized Chinese urea was 450 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - sized Chinese urea was 460 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.5 US dollars/ton. The prices of other regions also showed different degrees of decline [20][21][23].

尿素周报2025/8/15 作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式：kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 秋季肥需求偏弱 观点小结 | 尿素 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 供应方面，夏季检修开始恢复，产量开始企稳，较历史同期偏高；出口利润较高，印标价格虽高，但中国 未能参与；复合肥开工率略有下降，秋季肥推进偏慢，工业需求不温不火。综合来看，短期国内供需偏弱， | | | | 仍需关注出口政策变化。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 当前月差偏低，可逢低关注月差走强机会 | | 政策 | 中性 | 暂无进一步放开出口的消息。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 供给企稳，需求依旧偏弱，贸易商观望态度明显，现货成交偏弱，价格下滑，但近期低价收单情况已有所 好转。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 企业库存小幅累库，港口库存小幅降低，部分企业收单价格承压而降。 | | | 偏空 | | | 出口 | 中性 | 国际价格依旧偏高，出口潜在利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Urea Futures Main Contract Trend**: From August 11th to 14th, the main contract UR2601 of urea futures oscillated downward, with an interval decline of 0.80% and an interval amplitude of 2.72% [7]. - **Urea Futures Basis Situation**: On August 13th, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton compared to last Wednesday, and it was at a low level compared to the past five years [11]. 3.2 Urea Fundamental Analysis Supply - side - **Urea Production Enterprise Operating Rate**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years [16]. - **Urea Plant Weekly Maintenance Loss**: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea plants was 19.19 tons, a 4.48% decrease compared to the previous period and a 21.83% decrease year - on - year [18]. - **Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea**: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 1.1 million tons, a 2.8% increase compared to the previous period; the weekly output of urea produced from pipeline fertilizer - using gas is 290,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period. The supply pattern remains loose [20]. Demand - side - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Operating Rate**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024 [23]. - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - plant Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 826,500 tons, a 3.26% increase compared to the previous period and a 12.68% increase compared to 2024 [25]. - **Melamine Operating Rate**: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [29]. Inventory - side - **Urea Enterprise Inventory and Port Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period [32]. Cost - side - **Synthetic Ammonia Price**: On August 14th, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,150 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton increase compared to August 7th [38]. - **Coal Market Operation**: With the restorative rebound of the low - end price of anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea plants has strengthened. Currently, the aggregated price of Yangquan anthracite fine coal is 770 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period; the aggregated price of Jincheng anthracite washed small coal is 900 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged compared to the previous period [40]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Date | Beginning Inventory (kt) | Production (kt) | Total Supply (kt) | Consumption (kt) | Export (kt) | Total Demand (kt) | Ending Inventory (kt) | Supply - Demand Ratio (%) | Price (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 10E | 1437 | 6200 | 7638 | 5200 | 500 | 5700 | 603 | 134 | 1800 | | 2025 - 09E | 1037 | 6300 | 7338 | 4900 | 1000 | 5900 | 1437 | 124.37 | 1750 | | 2025 - 08E | 757 | 6270 | 7028 | 4570 | 1100 | 5670 | 1037 | 123.95 | 1830 | | 2025 July | 931 | 6093 | 7025 | 5890 | 700 | 6590 | 1757 | 106.6 | 1817.22 | | 2025 June | 840 | 6146 | 6986.03 | 6159 | 66.24 | 6225.24 | 931 | 112.22 | 1838.8 | | 2025 May | 865 | 6366 | 7231.22 | 6391.2 | 2.44 | 6393.64 | 840 | 113.1 | 1912.94 | | 2025 April | 805 | 6004 | 6809.42 | 5944.4 | 2.25 | 5946.65 | 865 | 114.51 | 1894.95 | | 2025 March | 1266 | 6219 | 7485.04 | 6680 | 2.3 | 6682.3 | 805 | 112.01 | 1867.78 | | 2025 February | 1499 | 5551 | 7050.34 | 5784.3 | 1.36 | 5785.66 | 1266 | 121.86 | 1776.73 | | 2025 January | 1378 | 5719 | 7097.25 | 5598.2 | 2.65 | 5600.85 | 1499 | 126.72 | 1695.43 | | 2024 December | 1191 | 5463 | 6654.24 | 5275.7 | 2.27 | 5277.97 | 1378 | 126.08 | 1819.64 | | 2024 November | 1135 | 5421 | 6556.1 | 5365 | 2.22 | 5367.22 | 1191 | 122.15 | 1868.4 | | 2024 October | 903 | 5841 | 6744.08 | 5600 | 3.5 | 5612.5 | 1135 | 120.16 | 1900.26 | [44] 3.3 Future Outlook - **Supply - side**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years. Driven by the continuous efforts of the supply - guarantee policy and the release of the efficiency of previous technological improvements, it has become normal for production enterprises to operate at high loads, and the overall supply of urea will continue the loose pattern. In the short term, the high - supply situation is unlikely to change significantly [49]. - **Demand - side**: Currently, it is the traditional off - season for demand. The downstream market generally has a wait - and - see attitude, mainly following up with rigid demand, and has no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024; the panel industry is still in the traditional off - season, and the average operating load rate of melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [49]. - **Inventory - side**: The overall inventory pressure still exists. Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; with the orderly collection of goods at the port, the current port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period. As the preparation and production of autumn fertilizers gradually start, it is expected that the enterprise inventory will first increase and then decrease [49]. - **Cost - side**: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with the increase or decrease of demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In general, the current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49].