Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in international crude oil prices, leading to a sharp increase in domestic chemical raw material prices, causing over 200 chemical and energy-related companies to suspend product quotations due to market volatility and supply chain uncertainties [3][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - International crude oil prices have risen sharply, with WTI reaching $103 per barrel and Brent surpassing $108 per barrel, prompting a corresponding increase in domestic chemical raw material prices [3]. - Over 200 chemical and energy companies have announced suspensions of various chemical products, including oil products and new energy raw materials, due to factors such as low inventory and maintenance [3][4]. - The suspension of quotations is widespread across major chemical production regions in China, including Shandong, Hebei, and Sichuan, affecting a wide range of products across the entire supply chain [3][4]. Group 2: Specific Product Impact - Various chemical products, including MTBE, butanes, and aromatics, have seen significant suspensions in quotations due to maintenance and low inventory levels [4][5]. - The supply of olefins remains tight, with several companies halting quotations for ethylene and propylene due to ongoing maintenance and reduced production capacity [4][5]. - The market for fine chemicals and new materials is also experiencing concentrated suspensions, with many companies halting quotations for epoxy resins and hydrogen peroxide [5][6]. Group 3: Price Trends - The domestic chemical raw material market has seen over 100 products experiencing price increases, with some, like ferrous sulfate, rising by 42% week-on-week and 112% year-on-year [6][10]. - Other notable price increases include propylene glycol and hydrochloric acid, both exceeding 30% week-on-week, with hydrochloric acid's year-on-year increase surpassing 109% [10]. - The price of lithium carbonate for battery-grade applications has also seen a significant rise, reflecting broader trends in the chemical market [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current wave of suspensions is attributed to the seasonal maintenance of production facilities and increased uncertainty in raw material prices, leading companies to adopt a cautious approach [10]. - As maintenance concludes and raw material prices stabilize, some companies are expected to resume quotations, potentially leading to a clearer market price trend [10].

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report: Strong Supply and Demand, High-level Fluctuations [1] - Release Date: March 30, 2026 - Report Issuer: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The international urea market is generally in a tight situation, while the domestic supply is relatively abundant after the release of daily production and national reserve supplies. The downstream demand mainly relies on high-nitrogen compound fertilizers from compound fertilizer factories. The future agricultural demand is expected to be concentrated around May and June. Currently, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has gradually increased to a high level, and the finished product inventory in the factories has been transferred to the end-users. However, as the spring fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate may stabilize. Recently, the prices of raw materials have increased to varying degrees. After the increase in compound fertilizer prices, the follow-up of new orders has slowed down, and most of them are based on the execution of previous orders. The inventory in urea factories has significantly decreased, and the de-stocking pattern is expected to continue in the short term. Overall, the international urea price has risen sharply, while the domestic market has only been affected by sentiment and has not seen a synchronous sharp increase. The sufficient backlog of orders supports the spot price, and the market will mainly fluctuate at a high level under the situation of strong supply and demand. If the situation in the Middle East eases, the market sentiment may decline, but currently, it will mainly fluctuate narrowly at a high level during the peak season [2] Summary by Directory Spot Market Dynamics - The urea spot market remained stable over the weekend, with acceptable trading activity. Factories still had pending orders and no pressure to reduce prices to attract orders. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan remained stable at 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [5] Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price was affected by Trump's threatening remarks on Monday and followed the energy and chemical sector up. It opened lower and closed lower on Tuesday, opened lower and closed higher but still ended down on Wednesday, opened higher and closed higher on Thursday and Friday. As of March 30, the main May contract of urea closed at 1,882 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the settlement price of 1,884 yuan/ton on March 23. The weekly trading volume last week was 20.00668 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.49162 million tons; the open interest was 8.4714 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 257,200 tons. Since the conflict in the Middle East, urea has continued to fluctuate at a high level and fluctuated within a range with the change of sentiment. Last week, the decline of urea futures was greater than that of the spot price, and the basis weakened. As of March 30, the basis of the 05 contract was -22 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 7 yuan/ton. As of March 30, the 5 - 9 spread was -46 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 89 yuan/ton. On March 30, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,707, a week-on-week decrease of 5 [8][9][11] Urea Supply Side - Last week, the weekly output of urea decreased. From March 19 to March 25, the weekly output of urea was 1.4756 million tons, a decrease of 43,800 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 2.88%, and the average daily output was 210,800 tons. Among them, the weekly output of coal-based urea was 1.2282 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.41%; the weekly output of gas-based urea was 247,400 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.14%; the weekly output of small-granule urea was 116,970 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.15%; the weekly output of large-granule urea was 305,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.83%. In the next cycle, 3 enterprises are expected to resume production, and 3 enterprises are expected to stop production. According to Feiyitong data, on March 30, 2026, the national daily output of urea was 219,900 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 87.67%. The international coal price increase and the general rise of the energy and chemical sector caused by the tight balance of overseas energy have driven up the coal price. However, as it is currently the off-peak season for electricity demand, the domestic inventory has increased, and there is no strong driving force for the price to rise in the off-peak season, but it is expected to perform well in the summer peak season. As of March 30, the quoted price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal Q5500 was 761 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 18 yuan/ton; the market price of anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng was 950 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic liquefied natural gas price increased. As of March 30, the domestic benchmark price of liquefied natural gas was 4,494 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 304 yuan/ton compared with 4,190 yuan/ton on March 23. Last week, the price of synthetic ammonia increased. As of March 27, the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,425 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of urea increased; the spread between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong was 525 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 20 yuan/ton. Last week, the spot price of methanol increased. As of March 27, the quoted price of methanol was 2,850 yuan/ton, and the spread between methanol and urea was 950 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 105 yuan/ton [15][17][19] Urea Demand Side - As of March 27, the quoted price of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer was 3,380 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has gradually increased to a high level, and the finished product inventory in the factories has been transferred to the end-users. However, as the spring fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate may stabilize. Recently, the prices of raw materials have increased to varying degrees. After the increase in compound fertilizer prices, the follow-up of new orders has slowed down, and most of them are based on the execution of previous orders. As of March 27, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 51.24%, a week-on-week increase of 1.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%. From March 21 to March 27, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 51.24%, an increase of 6.67 percentage points from the previous period and 10.05 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The increase in urea price and international energy price has been transmitted to melamine, and under the sentiment of buying on rising and not buying on falling of downstream customers, the peak season is obvious, and the operating rate of factories has significantly increased this week. In terms of inventory data, as of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of urea enterprises in China was 700,500 tons, a decrease of 108,400 tons from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 13.4%, and 167,300 tons lower than the same period last year. During the peak season of spring plowing, the downstream sales were smooth, and the downstream factories actively purchased and stocked up. The resonance of the peak season of spring plowing and the increase in international urea prices stimulated more active trading activity, and the inventory in urea factories significantly decreased. It is expected that the de-stocking pattern will not change in the short term, and the de-stocking will continue next week. The sample inventory at ports was 169,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week [22][23] International Market - Australia has a large rigid demand gap, and global supplies are concentrated in Australia. In addition, the supply and shipment in the Middle East are affected by the geopolitical conflict, and the prices of energy such as natural gas and oil have skyrocketed, accelerating the price increase of global nitrogen fertilizers. Next, attention should be paid to India's new round of tendering. As of March 27, the FOB price of small-granule urea in China was reported at $752.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $40/ton; the FOB price in the Baltic Sea was $622.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $27.5/ton; the price in the Arabian Gulf was $742.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $27.5/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was $772.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $27.5/ton. As of March 27, the FOB price of large-granule urea in China was reported at $795/ton, a week-on-week increase of $72.5/ton; the FOB price of large-granule urea in Egypt was $767.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $42.5/ton; the FOB price of large-granule urea in the Arabian Gulf was $727/ton, a week-on-week increase of $47.5/ton; the FOB price of large-granule urea in the Baltic Sea was $686.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $21.5/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was $775/ton, a week-on-week increase of $25/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was $685/ton, a week-on-week increase of $26/ton [25][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the main contract of soda ash futures first rose and then fell, with an overall weekly decline. The market is caught in a tug - of - war between supply contraction and weak demand. - The supply side shows positive changes with a significant week - on - week decline in weekly output and operating rate, which eases supply pressure and provides bottom support for prices. However, the demand side remains weak, with downstream purchases mainly for low - price and just - in - time needs. The overall shipment rate has dropped to a recent low, and the de - stocking process is hindered. - Rising raw material costs are squeezing industry profit margins. The profit of the combined - soda process has declined from its peak, and the ammonia - soda process continues to be slightly in the red. - The latest real - estate data shows a continued year - on - year decline in new construction and completion areas, suppressing long - term demand expectations. - In the short term, supply contraction provides support, but weak demand and high inventory pressure remain unresolved, limiting the upside potential of futures prices. The market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,700 tons or 5.22%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 368,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,100 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 407,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,600 tons [9]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.87%, down 4.51 percentage points from the previous week. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.45%, unchanged from the previous week; the combined - production capacity utilization rate was 76.17%, down 3.81 percentage points from the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 84.47%, down 3.70 percentage points from the previous week [11]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8519 million tons, an increase of 40,300 tons or 2.22% from Monday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 946,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 905,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,500 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 1,900 tons or 0.10%. The inventory of light soda ash decreased by 16,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash increased by 14,600 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 221,900 tons or 13.61% [15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 820,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.56%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 100.23%, a decrease of 9.39 percentage points from the previous week [17]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the theoretical profit (per double - ton) of the combined - soda process for Chinese soda ash was 215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.49%. During the week, the price of raw - material mine salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased significantly, strengthening the cost side. The prices of soda ash and its by - product ammonium chloride were relatively stable. Therefore, with the increase in costs, the double - ton profit of the combined - soda process decreased slightly [20]. - As of March 26, 2026, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for Chinese soda ash was - 26.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw - material sea salt remained stable, and the price of anthracite coal fluctuated and adjusted downward, with a slight increase in the cost side. The soda ash market remained stable with no significant price fluctuations. Therefore, the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated downward [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 26, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 144,900 tons, a decrease of 0.62% compared with the 19th. The weekly output of national float glass from March 20 - 26, 2026 was 1.0145 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47% [26]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 814,000 weight boxes or 1.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The inventory days were 33.6 days, a decrease of 0.1 day from the previous period [30]. 3. Market Price Analysis - The price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased from 731 yuan/ton to 756 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.42%. The price of well - mine salt in East China remained stable at 260 yuan/ton. - The prices of light and heavy soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. The price of float glass in China increased from 1163 yuan/ton to 1169 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. The price of 2.0 - mm photovoltaic glass in China remained stable at 10 yuan/square. The price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu increased from 860 yuan/ton to 900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.65%. The price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan remained stable at 660 yuan/ton. The price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased from 2490 yuan/ton to 2477 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52% [35]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The short - term supply contraction provides support, but weak demand and high inventory pressure remain unresolved, limiting the upside potential of futures prices. The market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate. - Operation suggestions: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading. Since supply contraction provides support but weak demand restricts the upside, one can sell high and buy low between key support and resistance levels. For arbitrage, there are no specific suggestions. For options, one can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums and increase returns in a volatile market [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the chemical industry Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have led to significant disruptions in the chemical supply chain, affecting various sectors including fertilizers and semiconductors [1][2] - The chemical market is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply chain vulnerabilities, with specific products like helium and fertilizers facing acute shortages [1][2] - The AI industry is facing challenges due to increased demand for computing power, leading to a surge in CPU prices and extended delivery times [1] - Major companies are actively expanding production capacities to meet rising demand, with significant investments in AI infrastructure [1] Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude oil settled at an average of 105.45 USD/barrel, down 0.87% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil averaged 92.98 USD/barrel, down 3.22% [9] - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index with a 2.31% increase, while the petrochemical sector saw a slight decline of 0.10% [10] Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry is stabilizing with a slight increase in production rates, while raw material prices are on the rise [23] - The dye market remains stable, with prices for disperse dyes holding steady and active dyes experiencing an upward trend due to strong cost support [25] - The carbon dioxide market is seeing limited price increases due to insufficient demand support [27] Key Events - Iran's response to the US ceasefire proposal has introduced new conditions, impacting market stability [2] - Australia's largest ammonia plant has been offline for two months, exacerbating global fertilizer shortages during the planting season [2] - A significant reduction in helium supply from Qatar due to Iranian attacks poses a threat to the semiconductor industry [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the chemical industry Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have led to significant disruptions in the chemical supply chain, affecting various sectors including fertilizers and semiconductors [1][2] - The chemical market is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply chain vulnerabilities, with specific products like helium and fertilizers facing acute shortages [1][2] - The AI industry is facing challenges due to increased demand for computing power, leading to a surge in CPU prices and extended delivery times [1] - Major companies are actively expanding production capacities to meet rising demand, with significant investments in AI infrastructure [1] Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude oil averaged $105.45 per barrel, down 0.87% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil averaged $92.98 per barrel, down 3.22% [9] - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index with a 2.31% increase, while the petrochemical sector saw a slight decline of 0.10% [10] Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry is stabilizing with a slight increase in operating rates, while raw material prices are on the rise [23] - The dye market remains stable, with prices for disperse dyes holding steady and active dyes experiencing an increase due to strong cost support [25][27] - The carbon dioxide market is seeing limited price increases due to insufficient demand support [28] Key Events - Iran's response to the US ceasefire proposal has created uncertainty in the market, impacting supply chains [2] - The shutdown of major ammonia plants in Australia and India has exacerbated the fertilizer supply crisis [2] - A significant reduction in helium supply due to attacks on Qatari facilities poses a threat to the semiconductor industry [2] Price Movements - The price of titanium dioxide has increased by 5.1% due to rising costs and supply constraints [29] - The market for vitamin A and E has seen price fluctuations, with both experiencing upward trends followed by stabilization [30] Production and Supply Chain Insights - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the supply chain, with many companies facing production delays and increased costs due to geopolitical tensions [1][2][23] - The report notes that companies are adjusting their pricing strategies in response to rising raw material costs and supply chain disruptions [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the chemical industry, highlighting its resilience and potential for recovery in demand and pricing [4][8]. Core Insights - BASF's Zhanjiang integrated base has commenced full production, marking a significant milestone as China's first wholly foreign-owned project in the heavy chemical sector, with a focus on high-end materials and special chemicals [3]. - Titanium dioxide prices have seen three consecutive increases within a month, indicating strong market dynamics and potential profitability for producers [3]. - The domestic tire industry is showing strong competitive advantages, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, with key players identified in the display materials supply chain [4]. - The phosphate chemical sector is tightening due to environmental regulations and increasing demand from the new energy sector, with recommended stocks including Yuntianhua, Chuanheng, Xingfa Group, and Batian [5]. - The fluorochemical sector is poised for recovery, with high-end fluoropolymers and fine chemicals experiencing rapid growth, suggesting investment opportunities in leading companies [5]. Summary by Sections Chemical Sector Market Review - The overall performance of the chemical sector saw the CSI 300 index decline by 1.41%, while the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rose by 3.31% [14]. - The top-performing sub-industries included potassium fertilizer (up 11.58%) and other chemical raw materials (up 6.4%) [17]. Key Industry Dynamics - BASF's Zhanjiang base is designed to meet the growing market demand in China and the Asia-Pacific region, utilizing a fully renewable energy supply and advanced digital control systems [3]. - The price adjustments in titanium dioxide reflect a collective price increase trend among major producers, indicating strong market demand [3]. Investment Themes - The tire sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with domestic companies showing strong competitive positions [4]. - The consumer electronics recovery is expected to benefit upstream material suppliers, with specific companies recommended for investment [4]. - The phosphate and fluorochemical sectors are identified as having strong fundamentals, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their market positions and growth potential [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of urea is expected to remain firm in the short term, with the market showing high volatility. The current market is affected by international geopolitics, and its own supply - demand logic has weakened marginally. It is necessary to focus on the opportunity to return to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades [2]. - The inventory of urea is expected to continue to decline next week, and attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of high prices [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - Most regions' quotes remained stable over the weekend, with some factories lowering prices. After the futures rose today, the trading sentiment improved, and the spot price is expected to be firm in the short term. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1800 - 1840 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market generally declined. By March 23, the main May contract of urea closed at 1884 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on March 16. The weekly trading volume was 2349.83 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1590.28 million tons; the position was 849.71 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.15 million tons. On March 23, the urea warehouse receipt increased by 657 to 8715 [7][9]. - Last week, the increase of urea futures was less than that of the spot, and the basis weakened. As of March 23, the basis of the 05 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 59 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Urea Supply Side - Last week, the weekly output of urea decreased. From March 12 to March 18, the weekly output of urea was 1.5194 billion tons, a decrease of 182 million tons compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%. The average daily output was 217,100 tons. Next cycle, 3 enterprises have复产 plans and 3 have shutdown plans. On March 23, the national daily output of urea was 216,500 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.31% [14]. - The price of coal and liquefied natural gas increased last week, while the price of synthetic ammonia decreased. The price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong strengthened by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price difference between methanol and urea in Shandong increased by 170 yuan/ton week - on - week [15][18]. 3.4 Urea Demand Side - As of March 20, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. Compound fertilizer factories maintained a high - start - up and de - stocking trend, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase next week. As of March 20, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 49.97%, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06% [21]. - From March 14 to March 20, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 59.31, an increase of 5.96 percentage points compared to the previous period and 2.53 percentage points higher than the same period last year [22]. - As of March 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 808,900 tons, a decrease of 148,700 tons compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 15.53%, and 229,100 tons lower than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 167,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared to the previous week [23]. 3.5 International Market - The situation in Iran has not cooled down. Geopolitical conflicts have led to the shutdown of energy facilities, causing raw material suppliers and factories to shut down. International urea prices have increased significantly. India said it will not tender in the near term but is expected to take action at the end of March. Most urea - importing countries in the world are facing shortages [25]. - As of March 20, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China was 712.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 67.5 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - particle urea in China was 722.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 35 US dollars/ton [25][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market is under pressure due to the game between macro - expectations and fundamentals. The supply is abundant with a slight weekly increase in production and high industry operating rates. The demand is stable, with downstream enterprises mainly replenishing stocks based on rigid needs and showing increasing resistance to high prices. The latest real - estate data from January - February suppress the long - term demand expectations for soda ash. Although short - term inventory reduction provides bottom support, the upward space for futures prices is limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate [8][37] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation 3.1.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 818,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,900 tons or 1.11%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 384,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 434,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,700 tons [9] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous value of 87%. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.45%, remaining flat month - on - month; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 79.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual capacity of 1 million tons or more was 88.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points [11] 3.1.2 Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8538 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons or 2.61% from Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 963,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 890,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,900 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 77,900 tons or 4.03%. The inventory was 166,000 tons or 9.84% higher than the same period last year [14] 3.1.3 Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 887,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.85%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 109.63%, a month - on - month increase of 7.71 percentage points [16] 3.1.4 Profit Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the theoretical profit (dual - ton) of the Chinese co - production method for soda ash was 227.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 37.50%. The price of raw material rock salt was stable during the week, the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, the cost continued to decline, the soda ash price remained stable, and the price of by - product ammonium chloride increased, so the dual - ton profit of the co - production method continued to strengthen [19] - As of March 19, 2026, the theoretical profit of the Chinese ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 25.30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 yuan/ton. The price of raw material sea salt remained stable during the week, the price of anthracite continued to decline, the cost fluctuated downward, and the market price of soda ash was stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process only adjusted slightly [23] 3.2 Downstream Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 19, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 145,800 tons, a decrease of 0.75% compared with the 12th. The output of national float glass from March 13 - 19, 2026 was 1.0223 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [26][30] 3.2.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 7.4436 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.86% [31] 3.3 Price Analysis - The price of thermal coal (5500 kcal) decreased by 1.75% month - on - month; the prices of well - mine salt in different regions remained unchanged; the prices of light and heavy soda ash in various regions remained stable; the price of float glass increased by 0.52% month - on - month; the price of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged; the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu increased by 4.88% month - on - month; the price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan increased by 13.79% month - on - month; the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 14.22% month - on - month [36] 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the soda ash futures price fluctuated downward with a significant weekly decline. The market is under pressure due to the game between macro - expectations and fundamentals. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is decreasing, which supports the market sentiment. However, the macro - level concerns remain, and the real - estate data suppress the long - term demand expectations. The profit of the co - production method continues to strengthen, and the loss of the ammonia - soda process narrows. The upward space for futures prices is limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate [37] 3.5 Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Wait and see or try to short on rebounds - Arbitrage: None - Options: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums [38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [71]. Core Insights - The report highlights that high oil prices are supporting the rise in chemical product prices, with solid methionine prices exceeding 40 yuan per kilogram [1]. - The polyurethane sector shows varied price movements, with pure MDI and polymer MDI prices increasing, while TDI prices decreased [2]. - The oil, coal, and gas olefin sector experienced mixed price changes, with ethane and propane prices fluctuating significantly [2]. - The coal chemical sector reported increases in average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid, with corresponding changes in profit margins [2]. - The animal nutrition sector saw price increases for VA, VE, solid egg amino acids, and liquid egg amino acids [2]. Summary by Sections Polyurethane Sector - Average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 22,000, 16,943, and 17,771 yuan per ton, with respective changes of +1,543, +443, and -225 yuan per ton [2]. - Gross margins for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 6,780, 2,723, and 4,264 yuan per ton, with changes of +1,605, +505, and -49 yuan per ton [2]. Oil, Coal, and Gas Olefin Sector - Average prices for ethane, propane, thermal coal, and naphtha are 1,228, 7,335, 520, and 7,177 yuan per ton, with changes of -21, +959, +0, and +628 yuan per ton [2]. - Average price for polyethylene is 8,810 yuan per ton, with a decrease of -55 yuan per ton [2]. - Average price for polypropylene is 8,794 yuan per ton, with a decrease of -116 yuan per ton [2]. Coal Chemical Sector - Average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,311, 1,854, 5,386, and 2,928 yuan per ton, with changes of +224, +15, +271, and +161 yuan per ton [2]. - Gross margins for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 320, 181, 1,388, and 427 yuan per ton, with changes of +232, -1, -55, and +19 yuan per ton [2]. Animal Nutrition Sector - Average prices for VA, VE, solid egg amino acids, and liquid egg amino acids are 87.2, 82.8, 34.9, and 21.9 yuan per kilogram, with changes of +18.7, +8.3, +3.0, and +2.4 yuan per kilogram [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The chemical sector has experienced significant volatility, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index dropping by 9.49% and the Shenwan Chemical Index falling by 10.53% this week [2][13] - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iranian attack on Qatar, which has affected 17% of Qatar's liquefied natural gas export capacity, leading to an estimated annual revenue loss of approximately $20 billion [3] - The commencement of the first phase of Hengyi's coal-to-chemical fiber project, with an investment of 25.7 billion yuan, is noted as a significant development in the industry [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.38%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.26% [2][13] - The top five sub-industries in terms of performance were polyester (-4.83%), paint and ink (-5.56%), rubber products (-5.88%), tires (-6.29%), and other plastic products (-6.52%) [2][16] - The bottom five sub-industries included phosphate and phosphorus chemicals (-16.22%), chlor-alkali (-12.89%), pesticides (-12.08%), soda ash (-11.43%), and potassium fertilizer (-11.39%) [2][16] Major Industry Developments - The Iranian attack on Qatar has led to a significant disruption in LNG production, with two out of 14 production lines damaged, resulting in a production interruption of 12.8 million tons annually for 3 to 5 years [3] - Hengyi Group's coal-to-chemical fiber project in Turpan, Xinjiang, is set to invest 150 billion yuan over 5 to 8 years, aiming to create a vertically integrated industrial cluster [3] Investment Themes - The tire sector is highlighted as having strong domestic competitiveness, with recommended companies including Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Tire, and Linglong Tire [3] - The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with a focus on upstream material companies benefiting from the recovery in the panel industry [4] - The report suggests attention to resilient cyclical industries and those that have completed inventory destocking, which may outperform the broader market in the coming year [4] Sub-Industry Insights - In the polyurethane sector, pure MDI prices remained stable at 22,300 yuan/ton, with operating rates at 73.5% [27] - The tire industry shows a slight increase in operating rates for both all-steel and semi-steel tires, indicating a stable demand environment [51] - The agricultural chemicals sector is experiencing price increases for glyphosate and other pesticides, driven by supply constraints and rising raw material costs [53][56]