因为海南封关不封关都不可能另设账本，这是海南与香港本质上的不同。香港是一国两制，而海南只能是一国一制；香港与内地是两个账本，海南与内地只 能是一个账本。 感觉全中国的专家都在做名词解释 —— 什么是一线放开，什么是二线管住，什么是岛内自由。如果专家只会做这种名词解释，十年内这伙子专家全部会让 AI 干掉，是经济学中"多余人"，AI比专家解释的好，因为AI是所有专家的合成体。 既然海南与内地是同一个账本，就不可能打开金融长城、实行自由兑换。所谓一线放开，二线管住，岛内自由，主要对应的是税，其它方面可以说是能不放 开的都没放开，比如互联网、媒体、稳定币，基础电信，更不要说自由兑换了。这决定了海南不可能成为第二个香港。 为什么不能打开外汇管制、允许岛内自由兑换？ 因为海南进出不需要通行证，关税上有一线、二线的边界，对人的进出没有一线、二线的边界，封货不封人。海南放开自由兑换，全国的金融堤坝就彻底打 开了，全中国的富人都会冲入海南，将人民币兑换成美元，没有悬念（当然，不会按卢麒元的 3：1 兑换）。 这里有一个疑问：国际机构一致认为人民币会升值，2026 年汇率将达到 6.8：1，怎么会得出富人把人民币换成美元的结论 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government aims to strengthen ties with traditional markets while exploring new emerging markets to achieve better development [1][2] - In 2022, Hong Kong's foreign direct investment inflow reached $126 billion, ranking third globally [1] - The number of Hong Kong companies with parent companies from overseas and mainland China reached nearly 10,000, a historical high, with about 1,400 companies from the US, marking a 9% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong government emphasizes its status as a free port under "One Country, Two Systems," maintaining a simple low tax regime and open, stable, and predictable trade policies [2] - Hong Kong continues to welcome foreign investment and business development, highlighting its advantages in internationalization and talent attraction [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's former Asia chairman Stephen Roach has revised his previous stance on Hong Kong, stating that the U.S.-China conflict may present more opportunities than threats for the region, indicating a potential revival for Hong Kong [1] - Despite external uncertainties, Hong Kong's economy remains robust, with a GDP growth of 3.1% year-on-year in Q1, marking the highest growth in five quarters [1] - The number of registered companies in Hong Kong reached 1.46 million by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 29,000 [2] Group 2 - Hong Kong's attractiveness as an international trade center is reflected in its export and import growth, with exports rising by 11.9% and imports by 11.4% in the first four months of the year [2] - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant inflows, with the Hang Seng Index rising approximately 16% this year, outperforming major global markets [2] - The banking system in Hong Kong has shown a substantial increase in reserves, rising to HKD 173.4 billion, significantly higher than the previous year's HKD 44.8 billion [3] Group 3 - Hong Kong maintains its position as the third global financial center, with a narrowing gap with London, as reported by the Z/Yen Group [3] - The Hong Kong government is actively promoting the establishment of multinational supply chain management centers and financial hubs to enhance its international influence [6] - The Central Government's support for Hong Kong's financial sector has been significant, with measures introduced to stimulate the market [5] Group 4 - The Hong Kong government plans to leverage national development opportunities to enhance its economic growth, emphasizing the importance of integrating into the national development framework [7] - The introduction of the "New Capital Investor Visa" has led to 1,257 applications, expected to generate over HKD 37 billion in investment [2] - The anticipated influx of over 44 million visitors to Hong Kong in 2024 indicates a strong recovery in tourism, with a year-on-year increase of over 30% [2]

Group 1: Economic Resilience of Hong Kong - Hong Kong's comprehensive competitiveness is rising against the backdrop of global economic challenges, showcasing its unique dual role as a "free port" and "super connector" [1] - Despite the trade war initiated by the US, Hong Kong's import and export performance remains robust, with April exports valued at HKD 434.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, and imports at HKD 450.5 billion, up 15.8% [2] - In the first four months of the year, overall export value increased by 11.9% and import value by 11.4%, with a trade deficit of HKD 96.9 billion, representing 5.7% of import value [2] Group 2: Trade Partnerships and Market Dynamics - Hong Kong's exports to ASEAN countries have surpassed those to the US, with the latter's share in Hong Kong's total exports decreasing from 8.6% in 2018 to an estimated 6.5% in 2024 [3] - The Hong Kong government has maintained a zero-tariff policy on all imports, including those from the US, to uphold its "free port" image and mitigate the negative impacts of the trade war [3] - Hong Kong has signed nine free trade agreements with 21 economies and 24 investment agreements with 33 economies, enhancing its global trade network [3] Group 3: Capital Market Developments - The recent IPO of Ningde Times in Hong Kong marked the largest IPO globally this year and the largest in four years for the city, reflecting investor confidence [5][6] - The total amount raised from new stock offerings in Hong Kong has exceeded HKD 76 billion this year, a more than sevenfold increase compared to the same period last year [6] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has seen a resurgence in its capital market value, supported by the listing of major mainland companies [7] Group 4: Talent Attraction and Educational Initiatives - Hong Kong universities are increasing their non-local student admission quotas from 20% to 40% starting from the 2024/2025 academic year, in response to rising application numbers [9] - The Hong Kong government is actively promoting the "Study in Hong Kong" initiative to attract international students, particularly in light of recent US immigration policies [10] - The total number of visitors to Hong Kong is projected to reach approximately 298 million in 2024, a 41% increase from 2023, indicating a recovery in tourism [11]

Core Insights - Hong Kong has successfully attracted 18 global enterprises, including Baidu, Li Auto, and Ant Group, with an expected investment of approximately HKD 50 billion, creating over 20,000 jobs [1] - The region's advantages include its free port status, research capabilities, and professional services, which are crucial in the current global economic climate characterized by unilateralism and protectionism [1] - The Hong Kong Investment Management Company, established in 2022, has invested in over 100 projects, focusing on hard technology, life sciences, and green technology, with a total fund size of HKD 62 billion [2] Investment Attraction Strategies - The Hong Kong government aims to position the region as a multinational supply chain management center, enhancing its appeal to mainland enterprises for offshore trade management [3] - The establishment of recognized warehouses by the London Metal Exchange in Hong Kong will facilitate safer and more cost-effective metal trading, further attracting related businesses [3] - The Investment Promotion Department is actively organizing events focused on multinational supply chains to encourage more enterprises to establish operations in Hong Kong [3]