Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a 12-month target price of 33.4 CNY [5][8]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 20.46% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total revenue of 859 million CNY and a net profit of 123 million CNY, down 52.21% year-on-year [1]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 28.05%, a decrease of 7.78 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 14.36%, down 9.55 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is in a capacity ramp-up phase for its subsidiaries, which has led to temporary fluctuations in profitability due to high operational costs and the time required for revenue recognition [2][4]. - Significant growth in prepaid expenses indicates increased procurement of raw materials, with prepaid expenses rising to 43.76 million CNY, up 2079.75% from the beginning of the period [3]. - The company is deepening its layout in the aerospace industry chain, with the small and medium-sized components business expected to contribute positively to future performance as capacity ramps up [4]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of -12.5%, +47.3%, and +41.5% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of -28.7%, +83.6%, and +52.1% for the same years [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.48 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 58.1 [6][13]. - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 2.28 billion CNY in 2025 to 3.04 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a positive long-term outlook [13].

Summary of Tunan Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Tunan Co., Ltd. is a rare profitable company in the military industry with a gross margin exceeding 45%, providing a solid value foundation and significant advantages within the sector [2][4][10]. Key Developments - The company is focusing on the development of its new machining business at the Shenyang branch, utilizing a "small core, large collaboration" model to partner with industry chain collaborators, thereby unlocking growth potential and complementing its Jiangsu headquarters [2][5]. - As of the first half of 2025, Tunan's total orders reached 1.75 billion yuan, showing substantial year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth, with significant contributions from the new Shenyang business expected to enhance revenue [2][6]. Industry Dynamics - The aerospace engine supply chain is gradually recovering, with expectations that Tunan will benefit from the industry's improving conditions in 2026, alongside the new business growth in Shenyang and steady recovery in Jiangsu [2][7]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates a net profit of approximately 300 million yuan for 2025, increasing to 430 million yuan in 2026, which corresponds to a valuation of about 26 times for 2026, indicating significant growth potential and a relatively safe valuation margin [2][8]. Shenyang Branch Business Outlook - The new business at the Shenyang branch is projected to generate revenues of 550 million yuan in 2025, 530 million yuan in 2026, and nearly 700 million yuan in 2027, contributing significantly to the company's income in the coming years [2][9]. - Although the profitability of the machining business may be slightly lower than that of the Jiangsu headquarters, it is expected to provide considerable profits due to better turnover rates [3][9]. Overall Assessment - Tunan Co., Ltd. demonstrates clear incremental changes and possesses a relatively safe valuation margin. The optimistic outlook for the new business at the Shenyang branch, along with strong performance in terms of revenue and profitability, supports a positive view on the company's future development [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 shows a significant improvement in financial metrics on a quarter-over-quarter basis, despite a year-over-year decline in revenue and net profit [1]. - The substantial increase in the company's order backlog, which reached 1.75 billion yuan, suggests strong support for future revenue growth [2]. - The profitability of the company has been under pressure due to significant investments in subsidiaries, but there are expectations for gradual recovery as operations mature and orders are released [3]. - The company's vertical integration in the aerospace materials sector is expected to enhance its growth trajectory, particularly in the small component business [4]. - Adjustments to profit forecasts have been made, with expected net profits of 304 million yuan and 397 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, reflecting changes in the supply chain dynamics [5]. Financial Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 599 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 18.16%, but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 9.49% in Q2 [1]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 27.92%, down 10.42 percentage points year-over-year, while the net profit margin was 15.53%, up 10.63 percentage points from the previous year [3]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 indicate a recovery trend, with expected revenues of 1.47 billion yuan in 2025, 1.83 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.26 billion yuan in 2027 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.77 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.26 yuan by 2027 [6].