根据国际航协的预测，2026年行业总收入预计为1.054万亿美元，同比增长4.5%（2025年预计为 1.008万亿美元），2026年的旅客运输量预计达到52亿人次（较2025年增长4.4%），但每位旅客平 均净利润为7.90美元，低于2023年的历史高点8.50美元，与2025年持平。 2025.12. 10 本文字数：1341，阅读时长大约2分钟 "航空业为全球经济贡献了近4%的GDP，支撑了8700万个就业岗位，但行业利润率却薄如蝉翼，"国 际航协理事长威利·沃尔什（Willie Walsh）指出，"苹果公司卖一个iPhone手机壳赚的钱，比航空公 司运送一位旅客赚的7.90美元还多。在整个航空运输价值链中，航空公司利润率与发动机、航电制 造商以及许多服务供应商相比严重失衡。如果能重新平衡价值链利润分配、减轻监管和税收负担、改 善基础设施效率，航空公司将为经济创造更大价值。" 成本方面，2026年的燃油成本预计小幅下降至2520亿美元，较2025年的2530亿美元下降0.3%。市 场普遍预测布伦特原油价格将跌至每桶62美元，较2025年每桶70美元下降11.0%。非燃油成本预计 将达到7290亿美元，比 ...

当地时间12月9日，国际航空运输协会（下称"国际航协"）发布全球航空业最新财务展望，尽管航空供 应链瓶颈持续存在，但行业盈利已趋于稳健。2026年全球航空公司预计实现总净利润410亿美元（2025 年为395亿美元），创历史新高。 根据国际航协的预测，2026年行业总收入预计为1.054万亿美元，同比增长4.5%（2025年预计为1.008万 亿美元），2026年的旅客运输量预计达到52亿人次（较2025年增长4.4%），但每位旅客平均净利润为 7.90美元，低于2023年的历史高点8.50美元，与2025年持平。 "航空业为全球经济贡献了近4%的GDP，支撑了8,700万个就业岗位，但行业利润率却薄如蝉翼，"国际 航协理事长威利·沃尔什（Willie Walsh）指出，"苹果公司卖一个iPhone手机壳赚的钱，比航空公司运送 一位旅客赚的7.90美元还多。在整个航空运输价值链中，航空公司利润率与发动机、航电制造商以及许 多服务供应商相比严重失衡。如果能重新平衡价值链利润分配、减轻监管和税收负担、改善基础设施效 率，航空公司将为经济创造更大价值。" 分地区来看，亚太地区2026年的净利润估算66亿美元，其中中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has adjusted its financial outlook for airlines in 2025, projecting improved profitability compared to 2024, despite a complex global economic and political environment [1][2]. Financial Projections - The airline industry is expected to achieve a net profit of $36 billion in 2025, up from $32.4 billion in 2024, with a net profit margin increasing to 3.7% from 3.4% [1][2]. - Operating profit is projected to reach $66 billion, exceeding the $61.9 billion forecast for 2024, while total revenue is anticipated to hit a record high of $979 billion, with passenger numbers reaching 4.99 billion [1][3]. - The return on invested capital is expected to rise to 6.7% from 6.6% in 2024 [1]. Revenue Drivers - Global airline revenue is projected to grow by 1.3% in 2025, reaching $979 billion, with passenger revenue expected to rise to $693 billion, a 1.6% increase [3]. - Ancillary revenue is forecasted to grow by 6.7% to $144 billion, while cargo revenue is expected to decline by 4.7% to $142 billion due to slowing GDP growth and trade protectionism [3]. Cost Structure - Total industry expenditure is expected to increase to $913 billion in 2025, a 1.0% rise, with fuel costs significantly reduced due to lower oil prices [4]. - The average fuel price is projected to be $86 per barrel, down from $99 in 2024, although sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) costs are expected to be 4.2 times higher than jet fuel [4]. - The industry faces challenges with a backlog of over 17,000 aircraft and supply chain issues, leading to increased leasing costs and an aging fleet [4]. Regional Performance - North America is projected to achieve the highest industry profit, with a net profit of $12.7 billion in 2025, despite economic slowdowns [5]. - European airlines are expected to benefit from increased passenger demand, with a projected net profit of $11.3 billion [6]. - The Asia-Pacific region, led by China, is anticipated to see a net profit of $4.9 billion, driven by strong travel demand despite economic challenges [7]. - Latin America is the only region expected to see a decline in profitability, with a projected net profit of $1.1 billion [8]. - Middle Eastern airlines are forecasted to achieve a net profit of $6.2 billion, supported by strong demand [9]. - African airlines are expected to maintain a net profit of $200 million, facing high operational costs and supply shortages [10][11].