Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: November 17, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall production heat has declined, with decreases in the capacity utilization rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire capacity utilization rates remained relatively stable [2][31]. - The demand side shows a decline in commercial housing transaction area, an increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio, a decrease in land supply area, and a decline in the residential land transaction premium rate. Movie box office, automobile retail, and wholesale volumes have also decreased. However, the BDI index has risen slightly [2][3]. - Prices have improved marginally compared to the previous week. Crude oil and copper prices have rebounded, while coking coal prices have dropped significantly. Agricultural product prices continue their seasonal upward trend [2][4]. - In terms of shipping prices, the SCFI has declined for two consecutive weeks, while the BDI has increased slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [2][31]. Section Summaries Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.74 pct, blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.32 pct, and rebar production decreased by 8.54 tons [2][10]. - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 0.7 pct [2][10]. - Chemicals: The PX operating rate remained flat, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.77 pct [2][10]. - Automobile Tires: The all-steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.96 pct, and the semi-steel tire operating rate increased by 0.01 pct [2][11]. Demand - Real Estate: Commercial housing transaction area decreased, inventory-to-sales ratio increased, land supply area decreased, and residential land transaction premium rate declined [3][14]. - Movie Box Office: Decreased by 3 million yuan compared to the previous week [3][14]. - Automobile: Daily retail sales decreased by 109,000 vehicles, and daily wholesale sales decreased by 158,000 vehicles [3][16]. - Shipping Freight: The SCFI index decreased by 2.92%, the CCFI index increased by 3.39%, and the BDI index increased by 1% [3][19]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price increased by 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel, while coking coal futures price decreased by 6.06% to 1,201 yuan per ton [4][21]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.41%, -0.12%, and -1.70% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.36% [4][22]. - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to rise, with the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index increasing by 0.20%. Pork, egg, vegetable, and fruit prices changed by -0.93%, +2.31%, -1.04%, and +0.85% respectively compared to the previous week [4][24]. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased slightly, while Shanghai's increased slightly [27]. - Flight Operations: Domestic flight operations increased, while international flight operations continued to decrease [29]. - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities declined at an accelerating rate [29]. Summary - The production heat continued to decline, with decreases in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire operating rates remained relatively stable [31]. - The commercial housing transaction area declined, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. Land supply area decreased marginally, with a expected peak in land supply at the end of the month [31]. - Prices improved marginally compared to the previous week, with crude oil and copper prices rebounding, coking coal prices dropping significantly, and agricultural product prices continuing their seasonal upward trend [31]. - Shipping prices saw the SCFI decline for two consecutive weeks and the BDI increase slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Contract 12 fluctuates with a bullish bias - Arbitrage: None [7] Core View of the Report - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, with expectations and reality intertwined. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. The valuation of the 12 - month contract may have a top around 2100 - 2200 points, and its valuation bottom is rising. The February 2026 contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [4][5] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Futures Prices - As of November 5, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 75,038 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 54,169 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1652.00, 1199.60, 1426.10, 1497.10, 1142.80, and 1946.00 respectively [6] 2. Spot Prices - On October 31, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1344 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2647 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3438 dollars/FEU. On November 3, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1208.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1267.15 points [6] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November, the average weekly capacity from China to European base ports was 286,000 TEU, and in December, it was 322,900 TEU. In November, there were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN; in December, there were 6 TBNs. As of October 31, 2025, 218 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.784 million TEU [3][6] 4. Supply Chain - The Suez Canal Authority held a meeting with 20 major shipping companies and agency representatives to discuss the development of the Red Sea situation and invited shipping companies to conduct trial voyages [2] 5. Demand and European Economy - The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. The US will also suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. This is conducive to the recovery of Sino - US trade, which will drive the recovery of demand on the US route and support the prices of European routes to some extent [3]