摘要 全球海运贸易量预计将保持增长，2025-2029 年增速约为 2.4%，受益 于全球经济增长和海运的成本优势。IMO 的碳减排目标推动航运业绿色 转型，要求到 2030 年温室气体排放量减少至少 20%，到 2050 年实现 净零排放。 IMO 通过燃料生命周期温室气体强度（GFA）指标监管船舶碳排放，未 达标船舶需购买碳排放权，技术措施要求逐步下降 GFA，例如到 2035 年需比 2008 年基线水平下降 43%。 船舶需满足能效设计指数（EEDI）和能效现状指数（EEXI），不达标的 存量船舶将无法获得航行资质，运营中的碳强度指标（CII）评级将影响 船舶运营，促使老旧船舶更新换代。 全球船队面临高龄化问题，平均船龄达 17.4 年，为近 40 年来最高水平， 预计 2028-2032 年将迎来新一轮造船需求高峰，以替换 2006-2012 年交付的高峰期船舶。 船舶租赁渗透率显著提升，集装箱轮租赁渗透率截至 2024 年底约为 47.7%，中国租赁商在全球市场份额增加，节能型舰队占比达 66%，高 于全球平均水平 11%。 Q&A 中国船舶租赁行业目前的市场需求情况如何？ 中国船舶租赁行业目前市 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Views - The company is a leading global ship leasing firm with five core advantages: strong backing from China Shipbuilding Group, an excellent business model combining fixed and flexible income, early green transformation with 89% of its fleet being energy-efficient vessels, good qualifications leading to low financing costs (3.56% in 2024), and a high dividend yield exceeding 7% [4][14]. Industry Overview - The ship leasing industry is expected to see strong demand supported by several factors: steady global economic growth driving trade volume, increasingly stringent environmental regulations necessitating the replacement of older vessels, and a high average age of the global fleet at 17.4 years, indicating a peak period for replacing aging ships [11][23][40]. - The penetration rate of ship leasing is anticipated to increase due to the advantages of leasing, such as lower capital requirements and flexible payment options, with the current leasing penetration for container ships at 55.37% by number and 47.69% by TEU [52][57]. Company Analysis - The company benefits from a robust industry background and resources, allowing it to identify and capitalize on industry cycles effectively [11][14]. - Its business model enhances growth potential through a mix of fixed and flexible income, allowing the company to better capture the benefits of market upturns [12][14]. - The fleet's average age is only 4.03 years, significantly younger than the global average, which reduces environmental compliance pressures [12][14]. - The company maintains a low financing cost of 3.56% in 2024, with expectations for further improvement due to global interest rate trends [12][14]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 43.81, 46.22, and 49.68 billion HKD from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding growth rates of -1.35%, +5.51%, and +7.47% [16]. - Net profits for the same period are expected to be 22.79, 24.41, and 26.61 billion HKD, with growth rates of +8.22%, +7.10%, and +9.03% [16].