Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans rose due to a weaker dollar, while soybean meal fell and soybean oil increased [2][10] - Brazil's soybean export forecast for January is 3.23 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 3.79 million tons [2][10] - Domestic protein meal shows strong fluctuations, supported by pre-holiday stocking demand, but limited by arbitrage funds [2][10] Group 2: Oils - BMD palm oil increased, following the upward trend in surrounding markets, supported by good export data and declining production [3][11] - January palm oil exports increased by 7.97%-9.97% month-on-month, while production decreased by 14.81% [3][11] - Domestic oil prices rose, with palm oil leading the increase, while soybean and rapeseed oil followed [3][11] Group 3: Live Pigs - Live pig futures showed weak fluctuations, with the main contract down 1.57% to 11,285 yuan/ton [5][12] - The average price of live pigs in China was 12.7 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg week-on-week [5][12] - Increased supply and general demand led to a decline in pig prices, with a recommendation for short-term trading [5][12] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures showed weak fluctuations, with the main contract down 0.72% to 3,047 yuan/500 kg [6][13] - The national average egg price was 3.94 yuan/lb, up 0.08 yuan/lb week-on-week [6][13] - Short-term pre-holiday stocking supports current prices, but long-term supply pressures may arise due to increased breeding intentions [6][13] Group 5: Corn - Corn futures decreased as funds shifted to the May contract, with near-term contracts leading the decline [7][14] - High purchase prices in the northern ports and strong processing prices support market prices [7][14] - The overall pace of grain sales is slower compared to last year, with stable prices in the sales regions [7][14]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a strong rebound driven by macroeconomic policies, monetary environment, and industrial logic, with significant support from supply constraints and demand resilience ahead of the Chinese New Year [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The global macroeconomic landscape is characterized by a "loose East and weak West" pattern, with the People's Bank of China signaling clear easing through MLF excess renewals, and domestic manufacturing PMI data showing signs of demand resilience [1]. - The weakening US dollar index has reached a new low, enhancing the global purchasing power and financial attractiveness of non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply is constrained by environmental regulations, maintenance, and raw material shortages, providing rigid support for prices [2]. - Demand is bolstered by policies such as the extension of the vehicle purchase tax and trade-in incentives, along with pre-holiday stocking needs, demonstrating core resilience [2]. Group 3: Market Predictions - The lead market is expected to maintain a strong oscillation within the range of 17,000 to 17,500 yuan per ton, supported by macroeconomic easing signals, rigid supply constraints, and pre-holiday demand [3]. - The current trading behavior is primarily driven by downstream purchasing needs, while the acceptance of high prices by downstream enterprises may limit upward price movement [3].

Price Trends - The domestic PC market showed weak performance at the end of December, with most spot prices at low levels. As of December 31, the benchmark price for PC was approximately 13,233.33 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year price change of -5.15% [3]. Supply Analysis - At the end of December, the overall operating rate of domestic PC polymer enterprises showed slight increases. Although some production lines in Zhejiang Petrochemical were undergoing maintenance, one production unit resumed operations, and the average industry operating rate recovered to nearly 78%, with weekly output exceeding 65,000 tons. Despite efforts from polymer plants to support prices, the large supply base for basic grades led to renewed sales pressure in the market. Overall, the supply side provided limited support for PC prices [4]. Raw Material Insights - The domestic Bisphenol A market shifted from a prolonged low period to an upward trend in December, driven by supply contraction, marginal demand improvement, and strengthened cost support. Prices steadily increased from early in the month, with traders showing strong price support sentiment and a significantly improved trading atmosphere, which positively impacted the cost support for PC [6]. Demand Factors - The profitability of end-user enterprises has weakened, leading to suboptimal operating rates for downstream PC factories. Inventory strategies remained cautious, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach and reducing total order volumes before the holiday. The response from e-commerce and overseas markets for finished products was average, and end-user production schedules were conservative. Overall, the demand side provided insufficient support for PC spot prices [6]. Market Outlook - By the end of December, the domestic PC market was in a low-level consolidation phase. Although the upstream Bisphenol A market turned positive throughout the month, the cost support for PC remained limited. The operating rates of domestic PC polymer plants showed minor fluctuations, with limited maintenance news expected in the future. The trading atmosphere in the market was subdued, and short-term downward pressure on PC prices is anticipated [7].