马斯克认同台积电对芯片产能过剩的担忧。他指出，AI发展的核心瓶颈正在从芯片制造转向"芯片启动"能力，即电力、变压器与冷却系统的部署进度。目前，这些基础设施的线性扩 张速度，已严重落后于芯片产能的指数级增长。 作者 | 李 佳 近日马斯克表示，台积电对芯片产能过剩的担忧"是对的"。他预测，AI行业的限制因素将从芯片制造转向"把芯片开启运行"，这一转变的 核心瓶颈在于电力供 应、变压器配置和冷却系统部署。 1月6日，马斯克与奇点大学执行主席彼得·迪亚曼迪斯（Peter Diamandis）和Link Ventures创始人戴维·布伦丁 (David Blundin)开展了一场关于AI未来的深度对 话。他指出，当前芯片产能正呈指数级增长，而支撑其运行的能源基础设施却只能线性扩张。当两条曲线交叉时， 大量高性能AI芯片将因缺乏配套的电力转换设 备和冷却系统而无法投入使用。 这一判断直指当前AI基础设施建设被严重低估的问题。对于投资者而言，这意味着AI算力竞赛的焦点正在从芯片采购转向能源基础设施建设能力。 01 电力成为AI部署的"速率限制" 在对话中，马斯克进一步揭示了AI基础设施中电力瓶颈的具体形态。他强调， 部署 ...

Core Insights - STMicroelectronics reported a revenue of $3.19 billion for Q3 2025, a 2% decline year-over-year, with earnings per share of $0.29 exceeding expectations, but facing significant pressure on gross margins [1] - The company anticipates Q4 revenue of $3.28 billion, a modest increase of 2.9% from the previous quarter, falling short of analyst expectations of $3.4 billion [1] - The automotive sector, which constitutes a significant portion of STMicroelectronics' business, is experiencing weak demand, compounded by high energy costs and low factory efficiency in Europe [1][3] Company Performance - STMicroelectronics' CEO indicated that Q1 revenue was only $2.52 billion, with a bleak outlook for annual net income [3] - The company has reduced its capital expenditure by 20% for 2025, focusing on more efficient areas, but recovery is slow [3] - The automotive chip customer base has reduced orders, and demand for industrial microcontrollers has dropped by 30% [3][7] Industry Trends - European semiconductor companies, including STMicroelectronics, are facing similar challenges, with a second-quarter order-to-delivery ratio of 0.97, indicating more shipments than orders [3] - The European semiconductor market is struggling with structural issues, including a talent shortage and geopolitical tensions, leading to a loss of market share to Asian competitors [3][8] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 15% in 2025, but Europe is expected to lose market share, with Chinese suppliers exerting downward pressure on pricing [3][5] Chinese Semiconductor Landscape - In contrast, China's semiconductor industry is experiencing growth, with a projected market size of $455 billion in 2025, despite a 9.8% investment decline in the first half of 2025 [5] - China's semiconductor production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, with a self-sufficiency rate approaching 30% [5][7] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Chinese companies covering the entire semiconductor supply chain and increasing their market share, particularly in mature nodes [5][8]