Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the near - end TA partial devices have short - stops, the start - up rate decreases slightly, the polyester load drops, the inventory continues to decline, the basis is stable, and the spot processing fee recovers significantly. However, after the PX price strengthens, the downstream filament profit decreases sharply, and the probability of accelerated production reduction increases. The short - term upward space of PX may be limited, and it is necessary to wait for the downstream to pass on the price [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic devices increase the load, the start - up rate rises month - on - month, the overseas maintenance plan increases, the port inventory accumulates at the beginning of next week, and the basis is weak. The overall pattern is expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate increases slightly, the production and sales improve month - on - month, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The demand side shows a decline in the start - up rate of polyester yarn, and the raw material inventory and finished product inventory are both reduced month - on - month. Although the domestic demand side is gradually entering the off - season, the further weakening space is limited due to the low absolute inventory, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable, the Thai stage price is stable, and the strategy is to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device increases the load, and Dushan's 2.5 million - ton device restarts. The near - end TA partial devices have short - stops [1]. - **Market Situation**: The polyester load drops, the inventory continues to decline, the basis is stable, and the spot processing fee recovers significantly. The domestic start - up rate of PX remains stable, the overseas load rises, the PXN strengthens significantly, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits both increase to a relatively high level, while the US - Asia aromatics spread shrinks [1]. - **Outlook**: After the PX price strengthens, the downstream filament profit decreases sharply, and the probability of accelerated production reduction increases. The short - term upward space of PX may be limited, and it is necessary to wait for the downstream to pass on the price [1]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Zheng Dakai's 600,000 - ton device restarts, and Zhongkun's 600,000 - ton device increases the load [1]. - **Market Situation**: The near - end domestic devices increase the load, the start - up rate rises month - on - month, the overseas maintenance plan increases, the port inventory accumulates at the beginning of next week, the basis is weak, and the coal - based profit fluctuates at a low level [1]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply is stable with a slight increase, the overseas maintenance increases month - on - month, the overall inventory accumulation continues, and the absolute inventory is not low. The pattern is expected to remain weak under the continuous new production, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: Sanfangxiang increases the load, and the start - up rate slightly increases to 96.2% [1]. - **Market Situation**: The production and sales improve month - on - month, and the inventory accumulates slightly. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn drops, the raw material inventory and finished product inventory are both reduced month - on - month, and the profit decreases month - on - month [1]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic demand side is gradually entering the off - season, the further weakening space is limited due to the low absolute inventory, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: There are daily and weekly changes in the prices of various types of natural rubber, such as Shanghai full - cream rubber, Shanghai 3L rubber, etc. Some indicators like the basis and spread also change [1]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remains stable, and the Thai stage price is stable [1]. - **Strategy**: The strategy is to wait and see [1]. Styrene - related Products - **Price and Profit Changes**: There are daily changes in the prices of styrene, pure benzene, and related products. The domestic profits of PS, ABS, etc., also change [1]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS show different trends [1].

芳烃橡胶早报 | 苯 乙 烯 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 乙烯(CFR东北 | 纯苯（CFR中 | 纯苯（华东） | 加氢苯（山 | 苯乙烯（CFR | | 苯乙烯（江 | 苯乙烯（华 | EPS(华东普通 | | | 亚） | 国） | | 东） | 中国） | | 苏） | 南） | 料） | | 2025/12/11 | 745 | 666 | 5325 | 5260 | 820 | | 6685 | 6820 | 7550 | | 2025/12/12 | 745 | 663 | 5305 | 5220 | 810 | | 6645 | 6765 | 7550 | | 2025/12/15 | 745 | 665 | 5305 | 5240 | 815 | | 6660 | 6790 | 7550 | | 2025/12/16 | 745 | 664 | 5310 | 5220 | 815 | | 6615 | 6765 | 7550 | | 2025/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For PTA, the near - end TA partial device maintenance leads to a decline in the start - up rate, polyester load remains stable, inventory accumulates, and the basis is weak. The PX domestic start - up rate rises. In the future, as the low processing fee of TA lasts long and terminal data improves, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based operation is stable, coal - based has maintenance and load reduction, the load declines, overseas devices operate stably, port inventory accumulates, and the basis weakens. In the short - term, inventory accumulation may continue, but the supply may be reduced due to low efficiency, and in the long - term, the pattern may weaken [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate rises, sales decline, inventory remains stable, demand from the polyester yarn end is stable, and the overall inventory pressure is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees and the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, the Thai cup - rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 4 to 10, 2025, the PTA spot price increased by 30, the polyester staple fiber price decreased by 5, the naphtha cracking spread decreased by 3.15, the PX processing spread remained unchanged, the PTA processing spread remained unchanged, the polyester gross profit decreased by 27, the PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged, the warehouse receipts + valid forecasts increased by 2134, the TA basis increased by 1, and the sales - to - production ratio decreased by 0.20 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million - ton device is under maintenance [2]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 4 to 10, 2025, the MEG outer - disk price decreased by 3, the MEG inner - disk price decreased by 10, the MEG East - China price decreased by 10, the MEG far - month price decreased by 13, the MEG coal - based profit decreased by 10, the MEG inner - disk cash flow (ethylene) remained unchanged, the MEG total load, coal - based MEG load, and non - coal - based load remained unchanged, and the MEG port inventory remained unchanged [2]. - **Device Changes**: Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device and Sinochem's 300,000 - ton device are under maintenance [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 4 to 10, 2025, the prices of 1.4D cotton - type, low - melting - point staple fiber, etc. remained unchanged, the native staple fiber load, recycled cotton - type load, and polyester yarn start - up rate remained unchanged, the short - fiber profit and pure - polyester yarn profit remained unchanged, the cotton - polyester staple fiber price difference decreased by 25, and the viscose - polyester staple fiber price difference remained unchanged [2]. - **Device Changes**: There is no device maintenance information this week, and Fujian Shanli restarts, with the start - up rate increasing to 96.8% [2]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: From November 4 to 10, 2025, the US - dollar Thai standard increased by 15, the US - dollar Thai mixed increased by 5, the RMB mixed rubber increased by 30, the Shanghai whole - milk increased by 15, the Shanghai 3L increased by 50, the Thai glue remained unchanged, the Thai cup - rubber decreased by 1, the Yunnan glue remained unchanged, the Hainan glue decreased by 150, the cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged, the RU main contract increased by 15, and the NR main contract decreased by 35 [5]. - **Related Index Changes**: The difference between the mixed rubber and the RU main contract, the difference between the US - dollar Thai standard and the NR main contract, etc. have corresponding changes, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange RU warehouse receipts decreased by 2310 [5]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From November 4 to 10, 2025, the ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, the pure benzene (East China) decreased by 40, the hydrogenated benzene (Shandong) remained unchanged, the styrene (CFR China) increased by 2, the styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 20, the styrene (South China) decreased by 10, and the EPS (East China ordinary material) remained unchanged [8]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene increased by 10, the domestic profit of EPS increased by 10, and the domestic profit of PS and ABS had corresponding changes [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, near - term partial device maintenance leads to a decline in开工, polyester load remains stable, inventory accumulates, and basis is weak. PX domestic开工 rebounds. In the future, as TA has had low processing fees for a long time and terminal data improves, the processing fee center may gradually recover [1] - For MEG, near - term domestic coal - based devices are under maintenance and some have reduced loads, while oil - based devices run stably. Short - term inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the supply may decrease due to low efficiency. In the long term, the overall pattern may weaken [8] - For polyester staple fiber, near - term开工 increases, production and sales weaken, and inventory remains stable. In the future, considering the overall situation of polyester yarn and short - fiber exports, there are opportunities to expand processing fees at low prices [8] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [11] - For styrene, no future outlook is provided in the report Summary by Product PTA - Price data shows changes from November 3 - 7: crude oil up 0.2, PTA inner - disk spot up 35, etc [1] - Device changes: Xin Fengming Dushan's 2.5 million - ton device and Ineos' 1.1 million - ton device are under maintenance [1] MEG - Price data shows changes from November 3 - 7: MEG inner - disk price up 41, MEG coal - based profit down 17.08, etc [8] - Device changes: Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device and Zhonghuaxue's 300,000 - ton device are under maintenance [8] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price data shows changes from November 3 - 7: 1.4D cotton - type up 35, short - fiber profit down 9, etc [8] - Device information: Fujian Shanli restarts, and开工 rises to 96.8% [8] Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Price data shows daily and weekly changes from November 3 - 7: e.g.,美金泰标 down 10 daily and 15 weekly [11] - Price difference and other data also show daily and weekly changes [11] Styrene - Price data shows changes from November 3 - 7: e.g., ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remains unchanged, pure benzene (CFR China) down in the early stage and then stable [15] - Profit data shows changes: e.g., styrene domestic profit down 20 on November 7 compared to the previous day [15]

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on aromatics and rubber, issued by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on October 10, 2025 [2] PTA Section Data Summary - From September 25 to October 9, 2025, the price of crude oil remained at 65.2, the price of PTA spot decreased by 35 to 4500, and the price of POY 150D/48F decreased by 55 to 6595. The PTA processing difference remained at 112, and the polyester gross profit decreased by 8 to 182. The PTA balance load increased by 0.6 to 80.7, and the PTA load remained at 77.1. The number of warehouse receipts + valid forecasts increased by 3006 to 33522, and the TA basis decreased by 7 to -60. The sales volume increased by 0.2 to 0.50 [2] Device Changes - Hengli Dalian's 2.2 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance, and Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device reduced its load [2] Weekly View - Near - term PX has some maintenance delays and an increase in the load of existing production capacity, gradually passing the fastest destocking stage. With short - term stable supply of the two oils, the short - process efficiency of TA may be under pressure. TA's low processing fees have led to more maintenance and production reduction discussions, but the polyester load has also declined. The inventory remains low, the processing fees have slightly recovered, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the far - term. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to shrink the PX - MX spread when the price is high and the opportunity to expand the far - month TA processing fees when the price is low [2] MEG Section Data Summary - From September 25 to October 9, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 805, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 8 to 494, and the MEG inner - market price decreased by 51 to 4224. The MEG coal - making profit decreased by 51 to 77, and the MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) remained at - 699. The total MEG load, coal - made MEG load, and non - coal - made load remained unchanged, and the MEG port inventory remained at 40.9 [2] Device Changes - Shanxi Meijin's 300,000 - ton MEG device was under maintenance [2] Weekly View - Near - term EG has the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, so the supply remains at a relatively high level, and the arrival at the port has increased month - on - month. The port may gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage, but the current situation is still good, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - made MEG and the opportunity to sell put options close to the coal - made cost [2] Polyester Staple Fiber Section Data Summary - From September 25 to October 9, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type polyester staple fiber decreased by 40 to 6460, and the price of low - melting - point staple fiber remained at 7350. The profit of pure - polyester yarn increased by 65 to - 60, and the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber decreased by 40 to 8040 [2][3] Weekly View - Near - term devices are operating stably, with an operating rate of 95.4%. The sales volume has improved month - on - month, and the inventory has significantly decreased. On the demand side, the operating rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, raw material inventory has increased, and the finished - product inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the efficiency is weak. In the future, the speed of increasing the load of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished - product inventory. The operating rate of staple fiber remains high due to good spot efficiency, and the inventory pressure is limited. The processing fees are expected to fluctuate [2][3] Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber Section Data Summary - From September 25 to October 9, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 35 to 1835, and the price of US - dollar Thai mixed rubber increased by 20 to 1800. The price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased by 385 to 14215, and the price of Shanghai 3L rubber increased by 100 to 15200. The price of Thai glue decreased by 1 to 53.9, and the price of Thai cup glue remained at 50.7 [5] Daily and Weekly Changes - The daily change shows an increase in most prices, while the weekly change shows a decline in some prices. For example, the weekly change of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased by 15, and the weekly change of Shanghai full - latex rubber decreased by 205 [5] Today's View - The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup glue remains stable, with rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [5] Styrene Section Data Summary - From September 25 to October 9, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 805, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained at 710, and the price of styrene (CFR China) remained at 835. The price of styrene in Jiangsu decreased by 10 to 6790, and the price of styrene in South China decreased by 35 to 6935. The price of EPS (East China ordinary material) decreased by 100 to 7750 [8] Daily Changes - The daily change shows a decrease in most prices, such as the price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 110, and the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) decreased by 50 [8]

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