新华财经北京11月18日电投资者准备评估因政府停摆结束后补发推迟的就业数据，美债收益率周二（18日）盘前全线下跌。 其它市场方面，英债周二小幅波动，收益率涨多跌少，其中2年期英债收益率跌0.8BP至3.796%，10年期英债收益率跌0.2BP至4.537%， 30年期英债收益率涨0.5BP至5.355%。 亚太市场方面，长期日债连续第二日遭投资者抛售。周二盘中及盘后交易，中短债日债收益率下行，长期日债收益率上行，截至发稿 时，2年期日债收益率跌1BP至0.925%，10年期日债收益率涨2.1BPs至1.75%，20年期日债收益率涨4.6BPs至2.791%，30年期日债收益率 涨5.6BPs至3.315%。 美联储12月进一步降息的预期最近有所减弱，因为史上持续时间最长的政府停摆导致的数据中断给整体经济前景蒙上了阴影。随着美联 储对未来货币政策路径的分歧越来越大，投资者现在正密切关注几个关键的经济指标，这些指标将在未来几天公布，以帮助应对不确定 性。 这一系列数据包括定于周三公布的8月份贸易平衡数据，以及周四公布的美国劳工统计局 9月份非农就业报告。在这些数据公布之前， ADP就业变化周报将于周二公布美国私营 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK bond market has seen an increase in gains, with the yield on 10-year government bonds decreasing by 5 basis points to 4.69% [1] Group 1 - The UK bond market is experiencing a notable expansion in its gains [1] - The yield on 10-year government bonds has decreased by 5 basis points [1] - The current yield stands at 4.69% [1]

Group 1 - The 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by 3 basis points to 3.914% and 4.43% respectively, while the 30-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.96% [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were reported at 217,000, lower than the previous week by 4,000 and below the expected 227,000 [2] - New home sales in June grew by only 0.6% to 627,000 units, falling short of the expected 645,000 units [2] Group 2 - President Trump visited the Federal Reserve, marking the first formal visit by a U.S. president in nearly 20 years, during which he expressed a desire for lower interest rates [3][4] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates, leading to a significant sell-off in European bonds, with 10-year German bond yields rising by 10.7 basis points to 2.705% [4] - The UK PMI index for July decreased from 52.0 to 51.0, indicating only slight growth in business activity, while UK bond yields saw minor increases [4] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 2-year yield reaching 0.844% and the 10-year yield at 1.603% [5] - The U.S. Treasury has no bond issuance scheduled for the upcoming Friday, but plans to issue a total of $448 billion in bonds on July 28 and 29 [5][6] - The actual net financing needs of the U.S. Treasury for the second quarter reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion [7]

Core Viewpoint - The UK bond market experienced a decline in yields across various maturities, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets amid economic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Yield Movements - The yield on the UK 10-year government bond fell by 1.3 basis points to 4.622%, with an intraday trading range of 4.665% to 4.614% [1] - The 2-year UK bond yield decreased by 2.0 basis points to 3.862% [1] - The 30-year UK bond yield dropped by 2.2 basis points, while the 50-year bond yield fell by 2.6 basis points [1] Group 2: Yield Spread - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year UK bonds increased by 0.731 basis points, reaching +75.846 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the increase in UK government bond yields following trade agreement announcements between the US and Japan, as well as reports of the EU and US nearing a tariff agreement [1] - The 10-year UK government bond yield rose by 6.6 basis points to 4.635% [1] - The 2-year UK government bond yield increased by 4.0 basis points to 3.881% [1] - The 30-year UK government bond yield saw an increase of 8.3 basis points, reaching 5.482% [1] - The 50-year UK government bond yield rose by 8.7 basis points to 4.864% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year UK government bonds increased by 2.558 basis points to +75.115 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of investors is on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with cautious market behavior observed as yields on U.S. Treasury bonds decline [1][4] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points to 3.833%, the 10-year yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.342%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 4 basis points to 4.911% [1] - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields narrowed to 52 basis points, indicating changing investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that Fed Chairman Powell does not need to resign, emphasizing the need for a review of the Federal Reserve's performance [3] - Following Mnuchin's comments, bond prices rebounded, reflecting investor relief that Powell will remain in his position [3] - Economic data releases, including June existing home sales and initial jobless claims, are anticipated to influence market sentiment [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current target interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% with over 95% probability according to futures traders [4] - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue $78 billion in bonds, including $65 billion in 17-week short-term debt and $13 billion in 20-year bonds [5] - The European Union is preparing to implement measures against U.S. tariffs, which may affect U.S. suppliers' access to the EU market [5] Group 4 - In the Asia-Pacific region, investors are focused on the upcoming Australian CPI data, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decisions [6] - Australian bond yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 2.2 basis points to 3.319% and the 10-year yield down 3.8 basis points to 4.304% [6] - Japan's bond yields fluctuated following expectations of increased fiscal spending and tax cuts, with the 2-year yield closing at 0.756% [6] Group 5 - A significant trade agreement framework was announced between the U.S. and Indonesia, which will eliminate most tariffs on U.S. imports [5] - President Trump announced a "massive" trade agreement with Japan, involving a 15% tariff and a $550 billion investment from Japan [8]

Group 1 - US Treasury yields mostly declined on July 21, with the 2-year yield down 3 basis points to 3.85%, the 10-year yield down 6 basis points to 4.38%, and the 30-year yield down over 6 basis points to 4.94% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes narrowed to 53 basis points [1] Group 2 - The Conference Board reported a 0.3% decline in the Leading Economic Index for June, falling to 98.8, which exceeded the Dow Jones forecast of a 0.2% decrease [3] - The Conference Board does not predict a recession but expects significant economic growth slowdown in 2025 compared to 2024, with a projected 1.6% growth in real GDP for this year [3] - Investors are closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech scheduled for Tuesday, as other Fed officials remain silent ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting [3] Group 3 - The US Treasury issued $155 billion in two bond offerings on July 21, including $82 billion in 13-week bills and $73 billion in 26-week bills, with an additional $80 billion in 6-week bills scheduled for issuance on Tuesday [5]

Group 1 - The latest US PPI data indicates a cooling in wholesale price index for June, with expectations of a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a 2.5% year-on-year increase [1] - Following the PPI release, US Treasury yields declined across all maturities except for the 4-month short-term debt, with the 2-year yield down by 2.3 basis points to 3.936%, the 10-year yield down by 2.6 basis points to 4.463%, and the 30-year yield also down by 2.6 basis points to 4.992% [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with a notable drop in service prices offsetting the rise in gasoline prices [3] Group 2 - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy components, remained flat compared to May, with the annual rate slowing from 3.2% to 2.6% [3] - The UK inflation rate for June reached 3.6%, exceeding expectations, with the core inflation rate rising to 3.7% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific market, long-term Japanese government bonds saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year yield down by 1.7 basis points to 1.573% [4] Group 3 - The US Treasury issued a $65 billion 17-week short-term debt on Wednesday and plans to issue $170 billion in two bond offerings on Thursday, including $90 billion and $80 billion in 4-week and 8-week short-term debts respectively [6]

Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The U.S. Labor Department reported a surprising drop in initial jobless claims to 227,000, below the Dow Jones estimate of 235,000, indicating resilience in the job market [3] - The four-week average of initial claims decreased from 241,500 to 235,500, further supporting the positive employment outlook [3] Treasury Yields - As of the latest close, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat at 3.86%, while the 10-year yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.35%, and the 30-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.865% [1] - In the European market, the 10-year German bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points to 2.654%, while the 10-year Italian bond yield rose by 1.1 basis points to 3.593% [5] Trade and Tariff Implications - The Yale Budget Lab estimated that tariffs proposed by Trump could lead to an additional $2,400 in expenses for the average American household this year [3] - There is optimism regarding a potential tariff agreement between the EU and the U.S. to avoid additional import taxes [5] Federal Reserve and Political Dynamics - Criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has intensified, with officials suggesting that the administration may be preparing to dismiss him [4] - Analysts warn that Powell's potential dismissal could negatively impact financial markets, as it may signal a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve [4] International Market Trends - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.4 basis points to 0.762% [6] - The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in August, reducing the rate from 4.25% to 4.0% [5]

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected resilience in the U.S. job market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its decision to cut interest rates in July [1][3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 110,000 and slightly above the revised figure of 144,000 for May [3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February, while the broader unemployment rate decreased to 7.7% [3] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating steady wage growth [3] - The average workweek slightly declined to 34.2 hours, reflecting changes in labor demand [3] - In contrast, the ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, raising concerns about the labor market's strength [4] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury yields rose following the employment report, with the 2-year yield increasing over 10 basis points to 3.894%, and the 10-year yield rising over 6 basis points to 4.356% [1] - In Europe, bond yields fell as investors bought European government bonds, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 3.512% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 30-year yield increasing by 8.6 basis points to 2.971% [5]