新华财经北京1月6日电美债收益率周二（6日）多数走高，因市场消化了南美地缘政治局势升温和美国经济数据走软的影响，投资者将 注意力转向周五的12月就业报告。 蒙特利尔银行资本市场固定收益策略团队美国利率策略主管伊恩·林根表示，"就业数据最终将决定市场的下一波走势，是看涨还是看 跌。" 周二盘前，美债收益率几乎全线上扬，截至新华财经发稿时，2年期美债收益率微升0.6BP至3.461%，10年期美债收益率上升1.4BP至 4.177%，30年期美债收益上升1.6BP至4.87%。 欧洲方面，欧债收益率全线下行，其中10年期德债收益率跌2.3BPs至2.85%，10年期意债收益率跌2.9BPs至3.503%，10年期法债收益率跌 1.7BP至3.561%。 德意志银行周二在一份日报中写道，全球股市和债市"从容应对地缘政治发展"。衡量全球股市表现的摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数 （MSCI All Country World Index）小幅上涨不到1%。 美国供应管理协会（ISM) 最新发布的调查显示，12月制造业指数降至47.9，为2024年10月以来最低，且连续第10个月低于50，新订单进 一步萎缩，投入成本持续攀升 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board on November 18, with the 2-year yield down 3.7 basis points to 3.573%, the 10-year yield down 3.1 basis points to 4.104%, and the 30-year yield down 2.1 basis points to 4.717% [1] - The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in December have weakened due to the prolonged government shutdown affecting economic data, leading to increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [3] - The European Union has downgraded its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2026 to 1.2%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [3] Group 2 - In the Eurozone, Germany's growth forecast has been raised to 1.2% due to increased public spending, while France's forecast has been lowered to 0.9% and Italy's to 0.8% [3] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue a $95 billion 6-week short-term debt on November 18, followed by a $160 billion 20-year long bond and an unspecified amount of 17-week short-term debt on November 19 [5] - As of November 14, the total U.S. federal debt exceeded $38.15 trillion, remaining above the $38 trillion mark for three consecutive weeks [6]

Core Viewpoint - The 5-year Japanese government bond yield has risen by 2 basis points to 1.265%, marking the highest level since July 2008 [1] Group 1 - The increase in the 5-year Japanese government bond yield indicates a significant shift in the bond market [1] - The current yield level reflects broader economic conditions and investor sentiment [1]

Core Points - The two-year Japanese government bond yield has risen to 0.875%, marking the highest level since March 28 [1] Group 1 - The increase in the two-year bond yield indicates a shift in market expectations regarding interest rates and economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0.5% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with a potential increase in inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year due to improved US-Japan trade uncertainties [1][13]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Expectations - Economists anticipate that the Bank of Japan will keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.5% during the upcoming meeting, with a consensus among 56 surveyed economists [1]. - Market pricing indicates an approximately 80% chance of an interest rate hike by the end of the year, with October emerging as a favored time for the next increase [1][8]. - Following the US-Japan trade agreement, expectations for a rate hike have significantly rebounded, with a 65% probability for the October meeting and 80% for December [4]. Group 2: US-Japan Trade Agreement - The US-Japan trade agreement has notably reduced uncertainties, with the US agreeing to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, including automobiles, down from a previous 25% [2][3]. - Japan has committed to establishing a fund of up to $550 billion for direct investment in the US as part of the trade agreement [2]. Group 3: Inflation Outlook - The Bank of Japan is likely to revise its short-term inflation forecast upward, driven by rising food prices, particularly for staple items like rice [13][14]. - The core CPI forecast for the fiscal year 2025 is expected to be adjusted from 2.2% to approximately 2.5% [14]. - Despite short-term adjustments, the medium-term inflation trajectory is anticipated to remain unchanged, with expectations of inflation rates falling below 2% in fiscal year 2026 [15]. Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - Political uncertainties in Japan are currently pushing up long-term yields, but these uncertainties are expected to gradually ease, leading to a reduction in the political risk premium [16][17]. - The 10-year Japanese government bonds remain attractive, with current holding yields around 11 basis points and rolling yields at approximately 10 basis points, even with anticipated interest rate hikes [17].

Group 1 - The 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by 3 basis points to 3.914% and 4.43% respectively, while the 30-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.96% [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were reported at 217,000, lower than the previous week by 4,000 and below the expected 227,000 [2] - New home sales in June grew by only 0.6% to 627,000 units, falling short of the expected 645,000 units [2] Group 2 - President Trump visited the Federal Reserve, marking the first formal visit by a U.S. president in nearly 20 years, during which he expressed a desire for lower interest rates [3][4] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates, leading to a significant sell-off in European bonds, with 10-year German bond yields rising by 10.7 basis points to 2.705% [4] - The UK PMI index for July decreased from 52.0 to 51.0, indicating only slight growth in business activity, while UK bond yields saw minor increases [4] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 2-year yield reaching 0.844% and the 10-year yield at 1.603% [5] - The U.S. Treasury has no bond issuance scheduled for the upcoming Friday, but plans to issue a total of $448 billion in bonds on July 28 and 29 [5][6] - The actual net financing needs of the U.S. Treasury for the second quarter reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion [7]

Group 1 - The core focus of investors is on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with cautious market behavior observed as yields on U.S. Treasury bonds decline [1][4] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points to 3.833%, the 10-year yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.342%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 4 basis points to 4.911% [1] - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields narrowed to 52 basis points, indicating changing investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that Fed Chairman Powell does not need to resign, emphasizing the need for a review of the Federal Reserve's performance [3] - Following Mnuchin's comments, bond prices rebounded, reflecting investor relief that Powell will remain in his position [3] - Economic data releases, including June existing home sales and initial jobless claims, are anticipated to influence market sentiment [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current target interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% with over 95% probability according to futures traders [4] - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue $78 billion in bonds, including $65 billion in 17-week short-term debt and $13 billion in 20-year bonds [5] - The European Union is preparing to implement measures against U.S. tariffs, which may affect U.S. suppliers' access to the EU market [5] Group 4 - In the Asia-Pacific region, investors are focused on the upcoming Australian CPI data, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decisions [6] - Australian bond yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 2.2 basis points to 3.319% and the 10-year yield down 3.8 basis points to 4.304% [6] - Japan's bond yields fluctuated following expectations of increased fiscal spending and tax cuts, with the 2-year yield closing at 0.756% [6] Group 5 - A significant trade agreement framework was announced between the U.S. and Indonesia, which will eliminate most tariffs on U.S. imports [5] - President Trump announced a "massive" trade agreement with Japan, involving a 15% tariff and a $550 billion investment from Japan [8]

Group 1 - The latest US PPI data indicates a cooling in wholesale price index for June, with expectations of a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a 2.5% year-on-year increase [1] - Following the PPI release, US Treasury yields declined across all maturities except for the 4-month short-term debt, with the 2-year yield down by 2.3 basis points to 3.936%, the 10-year yield down by 2.6 basis points to 4.463%, and the 30-year yield also down by 2.6 basis points to 4.992% [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with a notable drop in service prices offsetting the rise in gasoline prices [3] Group 2 - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy components, remained flat compared to May, with the annual rate slowing from 3.2% to 2.6% [3] - The UK inflation rate for June reached 3.6%, exceeding expectations, with the core inflation rate rising to 3.7% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific market, long-term Japanese government bonds saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year yield down by 1.7 basis points to 1.573% [4] Group 3 - The US Treasury issued a $65 billion 17-week short-term debt on Wednesday and plans to issue $170 billion in two bond offerings on Thursday, including $90 billion and $80 billion in 4-week and 8-week short-term debts respectively [6]

Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The U.S. Labor Department reported a surprising drop in initial jobless claims to 227,000, below the Dow Jones estimate of 235,000, indicating resilience in the job market [3] - The four-week average of initial claims decreased from 241,500 to 235,500, further supporting the positive employment outlook [3] Treasury Yields - As of the latest close, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat at 3.86%, while the 10-year yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.35%, and the 30-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.865% [1] - In the European market, the 10-year German bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points to 2.654%, while the 10-year Italian bond yield rose by 1.1 basis points to 3.593% [5] Trade and Tariff Implications - The Yale Budget Lab estimated that tariffs proposed by Trump could lead to an additional $2,400 in expenses for the average American household this year [3] - There is optimism regarding a potential tariff agreement between the EU and the U.S. to avoid additional import taxes [5] Federal Reserve and Political Dynamics - Criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has intensified, with officials suggesting that the administration may be preparing to dismiss him [4] - Analysts warn that Powell's potential dismissal could negatively impact financial markets, as it may signal a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve [4] International Market Trends - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.4 basis points to 0.762% [6] - The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in August, reducing the rate from 4.25% to 4.0% [5]

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected resilience in the U.S. job market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its decision to cut interest rates in July [1][3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 110,000 and slightly above the revised figure of 144,000 for May [3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February, while the broader unemployment rate decreased to 7.7% [3] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating steady wage growth [3] - The average workweek slightly declined to 34.2 hours, reflecting changes in labor demand [3] - In contrast, the ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, raising concerns about the labor market's strength [4] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury yields rose following the employment report, with the 2-year yield increasing over 10 basis points to 3.894%, and the 10-year yield rising over 6 basis points to 4.356% [1] - In Europe, bond yields fell as investors bought European government bonds, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 3.512% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 30-year yield increasing by 8.6 basis points to 2.971% [5]