两年期日债收益率升至0.875%，为3月28日以来最高。 ...

日本央行周四或维持利率不变。美日贸易不确定性改善背景下，市场加息预期升温，10月成为下次加息热门时点。 彭博调查显示，受访的56位经济学家一致预期，日本央行将在本周的货币政策会议上，维持利率0.5%不变。经济学家们预计，央行季度经济展望报告中可 能会上调本财年的通胀预测。 本次会议的主要焦点是日本央行何时再次加息。知情人士此前表示，日本央行官员认为，在美日贸易协议消除了关键的不确定性因素后，可以考虑再次加 息。 市场定价显示，目前交易员目前预计，年底前加息的可能性约为80%，10月作为下次加息的潜在时间点正变得越来越受欢迎。 美日贸易协议不确定性显著降低 美日贸易协议是本次央行会议的关键变量。 据央视新闻，美日此前就关税问题达成一致。根据协议，美国将对包括汽车在内的日本商品统一征收15%的关税，低于此前适用于全球汽车进口的25%税 率。作为交换，日本承诺设立一个规模高达5500亿美元的基金，用于对美直接投资。 协议将对日大部分关税设定为15%，特别是汽车关税从特朗普4月份征收的25%降至15%，这为日本经济核心部门提供了重要缓解。 美日关税协定达成后，市场对日本央行加息的预期大幅反弹。 野村统计显示，截至7月 ...

Group 1 - The 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by 3 basis points to 3.914% and 4.43% respectively, while the 30-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.96% [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were reported at 217,000, lower than the previous week by 4,000 and below the expected 227,000 [2] - New home sales in June grew by only 0.6% to 627,000 units, falling short of the expected 645,000 units [2] Group 2 - President Trump visited the Federal Reserve, marking the first formal visit by a U.S. president in nearly 20 years, during which he expressed a desire for lower interest rates [3][4] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates, leading to a significant sell-off in European bonds, with 10-year German bond yields rising by 10.7 basis points to 2.705% [4] - The UK PMI index for July decreased from 52.0 to 51.0, indicating only slight growth in business activity, while UK bond yields saw minor increases [4] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 2-year yield reaching 0.844% and the 10-year yield at 1.603% [5] - The U.S. Treasury has no bond issuance scheduled for the upcoming Friday, but plans to issue a total of $448 billion in bonds on July 28 and 29 [5][6] - The actual net financing needs of the U.S. Treasury for the second quarter reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion [7]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京7月23日电 距离美联储下周的利率决定还有几天，投资者谨慎入场操作，1年期以上美债收益率周二（22日）走低。 据美国财政部数据（下图），截至当天收盘时，2年期美债收益率下跌2BPs至3.833%，10年期美债收益率下跌3BPs至4.342%，30年期美 债收益率下跌4BPs至4.911%。2年期美债与10年期美债收益率继续收窄至52BPs。 "我们需要做的是检查整个美联储机构，看看他们是否成功，"贝森特周一在接受当地媒体采访时说。"美联储是否成功完成了它的使 命？" 经济数据方面，投资者将密切关注周三公布的6月成屋销售数据，以及周四公布的6月初请失业金人数和新屋销售数据，他们还将等待周 五公布的上月耐用商品订单数据。 美联储将于7月29日至30日召开会议，届时将决定是否降息。根据芝交所美联储观察工具，联邦基金期货交易员预计，美联储将维持目 前4.25%-4.5%的目标利率区间不变的可能性超过95%。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普几个月来一直在呼吁美联储主席下台，这场冲突仍是投资者关注的焦点。 美国财政部长贝森特周二表示，鲍威尔不需要辞职。不过，贝森特重申了本周早些时候的言论，即美联储作 ...

Group 1 - The latest US PPI data indicates a cooling in wholesale price index for June, with expectations of a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a 2.5% year-on-year increase [1] - Following the PPI release, US Treasury yields declined across all maturities except for the 4-month short-term debt, with the 2-year yield down by 2.3 basis points to 3.936%, the 10-year yield down by 2.6 basis points to 4.463%, and the 30-year yield also down by 2.6 basis points to 4.992% [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with a notable drop in service prices offsetting the rise in gasoline prices [3] Group 2 - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy components, remained flat compared to May, with the annual rate slowing from 3.2% to 2.6% [3] - The UK inflation rate for June reached 3.6%, exceeding expectations, with the core inflation rate rising to 3.7% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific market, long-term Japanese government bonds saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year yield down by 1.7 basis points to 1.573% [4] Group 3 - The US Treasury issued a $65 billion 17-week short-term debt on Wednesday and plans to issue $170 billion in two bond offerings on Thursday, including $90 billion and $80 billion in 4-week and 8-week short-term debts respectively [6]

Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The U.S. Labor Department reported a surprising drop in initial jobless claims to 227,000, below the Dow Jones estimate of 235,000, indicating resilience in the job market [3] - The four-week average of initial claims decreased from 241,500 to 235,500, further supporting the positive employment outlook [3] Treasury Yields - As of the latest close, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat at 3.86%, while the 10-year yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.35%, and the 30-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.865% [1] - In the European market, the 10-year German bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points to 2.654%, while the 10-year Italian bond yield rose by 1.1 basis points to 3.593% [5] Trade and Tariff Implications - The Yale Budget Lab estimated that tariffs proposed by Trump could lead to an additional $2,400 in expenses for the average American household this year [3] - There is optimism regarding a potential tariff agreement between the EU and the U.S. to avoid additional import taxes [5] Federal Reserve and Political Dynamics - Criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has intensified, with officials suggesting that the administration may be preparing to dismiss him [4] - Analysts warn that Powell's potential dismissal could negatively impact financial markets, as it may signal a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve [4] International Market Trends - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.4 basis points to 0.762% [6] - The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in August, reducing the rate from 4.25% to 4.0% [5]

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected resilience in the U.S. job market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its decision to cut interest rates in July [1][3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 110,000 and slightly above the revised figure of 144,000 for May [3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February, while the broader unemployment rate decreased to 7.7% [3] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating steady wage growth [3] - The average workweek slightly declined to 34.2 hours, reflecting changes in labor demand [3] - In contrast, the ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, raising concerns about the labor market's strength [4] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury yields rose following the employment report, with the 2-year yield increasing over 10 basis points to 3.894%, and the 10-year yield rising over 6 basis points to 4.356% [1] - In Europe, bond yields fell as investors bought European government bonds, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 3.512% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 30-year yield increasing by 8.6 basis points to 2.971% [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. Treasury yields have shown a slight increase, reflecting unexpected inflation rise as indicated by the Federal Reserve's preferred metrics [1][3] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 4.5 basis points to 3.76%, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 3.2 basis points to 4.285% [1] - The core inflation rate for May reached 2.7%, exceeding expectations, with economists predicting an overall inflation rate of 2.3% [3] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring President Trump's renewed threats against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [4] - Powell reiterated the Fed's wait-and-see approach regarding interest rates until the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes clearer [5] - In the European market, most government bonds saw a slight increase in yields, with the 10-year German bond yield rising by 1.8 basis points to 2.583% [5] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields increased across the board, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.4 basis points to 1.452% [7] - The U.S. Treasury Department had no bond issuance scheduled for Friday [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 1.5 basis points to 3.846%, the 10-year yield rising by 3.3 basis points to 4.355%, and the 30-year yield up by 4.3 basis points to 4.902% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to present the monetary policy report to Congress, facing pressure from the Trump administration and some Fed officials advocating for interest rate cuts [3][4] - The Federal Open Market Committee has revised its forecast for the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate for Q4 2025 from 2.8% to 3.1%, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [4] Group 2 - In the European market, German bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.1 basis points to 2.557%, while Italian and French bond yields also saw upward movements [4] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 2.8 basis points to 1.437% [7] - The U.S. Treasury issued a total of $124 billion in two bond offerings, including $55 billion in 6-week bills and $69 billion in 2-year notes [7]

Group 1 - Investors are assessing the US economic conditions under moderate inflation and recent trade agreements, leading to a slight increase in US Treasury prices and a decline in yields [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.6 basis points to 4.011%, the 10-year yield fell by 2.4 basis points to 4.475%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 2.5 basis points to 4.918% [1] - Mortgage demand in the US has risen for the second consecutive week, indicating that potential buyers are attracted by the increased supply of homes for sale [3] Group 2 - The average contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased from 6.84% to 6.86%, which is 22 basis points higher than the same period last year [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose by 2.3% year-on-year, which is below economists' expectations of 2.4% and reflects the lowest level since February 2021 [3] - Housing costs were the main driver of inflation in April, despite a decrease in gasoline prices [3] Group 3 - Economists are looking for early signs of tariffs affecting US households, as tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices [4] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation data is still not fully reflected and may become apparent by June [4] - The UK central bank's chief economist expressed concerns that inflation in the UK may be stronger than expected, potentially requiring higher interest rates than investors anticipate [5] Group 4 - The US Treasury is set to issue a $60 billion 17-week short-term debt on May 14, with additional bonds totaling $160 billion to be issued on May 15 [7]