Economic Performance - The UK economy grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, surpassing market expectations of 0.1%, continuing the robust growth trend of 0.7% in Q1 [1] - Notably, the economy expanded by 0.4% in June, significantly exceeding the expected 0.1%, demonstrating strong recovery resilience after a contraction in May [1] - Monthly increases in manufacturing and industrial production were recorded at 0.5% and 0.7% respectively, both outperforming expectations, indicating active performance in the industrial sector [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The strong economic data suggests that the UK economy may be more solid than previously estimated, providing the Bank of England (BoE) with more policy space and reducing the urgency for further interest rate cuts [1] - Market optimism towards the British pound is bolstered by these economic indicators, contributing to a sustained strengthening of its exchange rate [1] Technical Analysis - The mid-term support level for GBP/USD is identified at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.3386, followed by the August low of 1.3141 and the May 12 low of 1.3139 [1] - If the latter support level is breached, market focus will shift to the psychological level of 1.3000 [1]

Group 1 - The UK Prime Minister Starmer acknowledged that the welfare bill was not handled correctly [1] - Difficult decisions were made in the 2024 budget to turn around the UK economy [1] - The Prime Minister expressed full trust in the Chancellor of the Exchequer and stated that they are in sync [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor emphasizes that policies should serve the UK economy [1] Group 1 - The Chancellor's statement reflects a commitment to aligning government policies with economic growth objectives [1] - There is an indication that future fiscal measures will be designed to support economic stability and development [1]

Core Insights - The upcoming week will focus on U.S. inflation data and its impact on the market, following the digestion of the May non-farm payroll report [1] - Key economic data releases include U.S. inflation, U.K. employment, and GDP, which will provide important market signals for investors [1] Group 1: U.S. Economic Data - On Monday, the market will continue to digest the May non-farm payroll report while paying attention to U.S. wholesale sales for April and the May New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations, which may reflect tariff impacts [3] - On Wednesday, the U.S. is set to release the May Consumer Price Index (CPI), with expectations of a monthly increase of 0.2% and a core CPI annual rate potentially rising to 2.9% from 2.8% [6] - On Thursday, the U.S. will announce the May Producer Price Index (PPI), with attention on whether the annual rate will stop declining for the fourth consecutive month and reflect rising inflation pressures [8] Group 2: U.K. Economic Data - On Tuesday, the U.K. employment report will be released, showing the unemployment rate at its highest level in nearly four years, with wage growth also slowing [4] - On Thursday, the U.K. will publish April GDP, manufacturing, and industrial output reports, with economists skeptical about the sustainability of the economic rebound due to the negative impacts of tariffs [8] - The Bank of England's cautious stance on interest rate cuts is influenced by global trade policy uncertainties and the need for strong economic data to boost confidence [8] Group 3: European Economic Data - On Friday, attention will be on Germany's May CPI final value, which is expected to remain at 2.1%, the lowest level since October 2024, supporting the European Central Bank's recent rate cut decision [10] - The focus will also be on the preliminary June consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan, which has seen a decline for five consecutive months, reaching its lowest level since June 2022 [10]

Core Viewpoint - Upcoming UK employment and GDP data may pose a significant test for the British pound, despite recent signs of economic strength [1] Economic Indicators - The UK's May composite PMI rose from 49.4 to 50.3, boosting confidence in the UK economy and the pound [1] - The GDP data set to be released next Thursday may indicate the beginning of an economic slowdown in Q2 due to rising labor costs affecting corporate profits [1] Market Outlook - Ebury anticipates that the UK will remain in a favorable position to withstand the impact of US tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The core issue highlighted by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, is whether the UK economy remains on its predetermined track [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England is closely monitoring the economic trajectory of the UK to ensure it aligns with expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, anticipates that the impact of tariffs on the UK economy will be minimal [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Impact - The expected influence of tariffs on the UK economy is projected to be small, indicating resilience in the economic structure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The improvement in UK house price data is expected to support the UK economy, contributing to the relative strength of the British pound, particularly against the US dollar [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - According to Nationwide data, house prices increased by 3.5% compared to the previous year [1]. - The British pound (GBP) reached an intraday high of 1.3557 against the US dollar (GBP/USD), approaching the three-year high of 1.3593 from the previous week [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Chris Turner, a currency analyst at ING, noted that the decline in interest rates is a contributing factor to the positive outlook for house prices and the economy [1].

Core Insights - The economic growth data released today demonstrates the resilience and potential of the UK economy [1] Group 1 - The UK economy shows signs of resilience despite challenges [1] - The data indicates a positive outlook for future economic performance [1]

Core Insights - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Huw Pill, stated that there has been no significant change in the UK economy following the tariff announcements [1] Group 1 - The UK economy remains stable despite recent tariff announcements [1]