宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 内需与政策将重新主导 PMI 9 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 08 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 迈向"十五五"：迎接新政策风格 | 2025-09-28 | | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - Since late April, the gold market has regained upward momentum, with COMEX gold prices surpassing $3640 per ounce and London gold nearing $3580 per ounce, marking historical highs and a year-to-date increase of over 30% [1] - Several gold stocks, including Western Gold, have seen significant price increases, with Western Gold's stock closing at a limit-up price of 26.51 yuan per share, marking three consecutive days of limit-up trading [1] - Western Gold reported a revenue of 5.03 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 69.01%, and a net profit of 154 million yuan, up 131.94% year-on-year, driven by increased sales prices and volumes of gold products [1] Group 2 - A total of 10 listed gold companies in A-shares reported growth in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with Zhaojin Gold showing the largest increase, achieving a revenue of 196 million yuan and a net profit of 44.69 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 98.27% and 181.36% respectively [2] - Factors contributing to the rise in gold prices include concerns over U.S. monetary policy independence, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties, and a decline in confidence in the U.S. dollar and bonds, leading to increased demand for gold [2][3] - The domestic gold ETF market has seen a significant increase in holdings, with a net inflow of 84.771 tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 173.73%, and total assets exceeding 140 billion yuan, up over 92% since the beginning of the year [4]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index (HSSCPB) rose by 1.13% as of September 2, 2025, with notable increases in stocks such as 3SBio (01530) up 4.34% and BeiGene (06160) up 3.65% [3] - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug Select ETF (520690) increased by 1.90%, marking its third consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.07 yuan [3] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index (HSHCI) saw a 0.77% increase, with stocks like 1Life Healthcare (02522) rising by 5.13% [6] - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF (513060) also rose by 0.96%, achieving a three-day consecutive increase, with a latest price of 0.74 yuan [6] Policy and Regulatory Developments - During the "National Drug Safety Publicity Week" in 2025, it was announced that 210 innovative drugs and 269 innovative medical devices were approved during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, indicating accelerated growth [7] - The approval of 28 innovative traditional Chinese medicine drugs has also been noted, with significant increases in clinical and market applications [7] Company Developments - On September 1, 2025, Hengrui Medicine's innovative drug "Zemiglo" was approved for market, becoming the first domestically developed EZH2 inhibitor for treating relapsed or refractory peripheral T-cell lymphoma [7] - Junshi Biosciences received FDA approval for its self-developed biosimilar HLX14, covering eight indications, marking a significant step in its international expansion [7] Institutional Insights - The approval of innovative drugs and devices, along with the advancements in traditional Chinese medicine, is expected to enhance the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector [8] - Hengrui's approval of the first domestic EZH2 inhibitor fills a treatment gap in relapsed/refractory peripheral T-cell lymphoma, adding a new commercial example for innovative drugs [8] - Junshi's FDA approval for multiple indications validates the pathway of "product internationalization leading to revenue and valuation enhancement" [8] ETF Performance and Metrics - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug Select ETF (520690) saw a significant scale increase of 54.91 million yuan over the past week, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [9] - The ETF experienced a net outflow of 5.19 million yuan recently, but had three days of net inflow totaling 41.35 million yuan over the past five trading days [9] - The ETF's highest monthly return since inception was 1.42%, with a maximum drawdown of 7.61% [10] Valuation Metrics - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF's latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) is 30.84, indicating it is at a historical low compared to the past three years [12] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng Healthcare Index account for 62.89% of the index, with companies like BeiGene (06160) and Innovent Biologics (01801) among the leaders [12]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of the urea market in Asia, highlighting the complexities of price, supply and demand, and policy influences, particularly focusing on the impact of India's tendering process on the market dynamics [1] Price Analysis - Urea prices are experiencing fluctuations due to various factors, including supply chain disruptions and changes in demand from key markets [1] - The article notes that recent price trends indicate a mixed outlook, with some regions seeing price increases while others face declines [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of urea is being affected by both domestic production levels and international trade policies, leading to a competitive environment [1] - Demand from agricultural sectors remains strong, but is subject to seasonal variations and external economic conditions [1] Policy Influences - Government policies in major producing and consuming countries are playing a significant role in shaping the urea market, with India’s procurement strategies being particularly influential [1] - The article suggests that upcoming policy changes could further impact market stability and pricing strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly stated that both policy and the economy are in a good state, indicating a positive outlook for economic conditions and monetary policy effectiveness [1] Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by stability and growth, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's strategies are yielding favorable results [1] - Daly emphasized the importance of maintaining a balanced approach to monetary policy to support ongoing economic recovery [1] - The remarks reflect confidence in the resilience of the economy amidst potential challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - The importance of an independent central bank for effective policy implementation is emphasized by U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra [1] Group 1 - An independent central bank is crucial for maintaining effective monetary policy [1]

Core Insights - Copper prices have experienced a slight pullback, influenced by policy, trade dynamics, and supply-demand factors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The fluctuations in copper prices are attributed to ongoing negotiations and adjustments in trade policies [1] - Supply and demand factors are playing a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of copper prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The market is closely monitoring how these various factors will influence copper prices moving forward [1]

Group 1: Market Overview and Valuation - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) indicates that the current valuation of listed companies in China is relatively low compared to international markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 15 times, while the S&P 500 is at 27 times and the Nasdaq at 41 times, highlighting the investment value in Chinese companies [1] - SSE's Vice President Wang Bo emphasizes that the capital market is transitioning towards high-quality development, supported by comprehensive reforms that provide institutional guarantees for the revaluation of listed companies [1][2] - The "three narratives" of policy, technology, and reform are driving the market's revaluation, with policy acting as a guiding force for market expectations [2] Group 2: Policy and Reform Initiatives - The introduction of a package of incremental policies by the Central Committee in September 2022 has significantly improved market expectations and confidence [2] - The SSE plans to implement the "1+6" reform measures under the guidance of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), focusing on enhancing institutional attractiveness and competitiveness [2] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) is actively planning reforms for the ChiNext board to better support high-quality innovative enterprises and improve financing flexibility [3][4] Group 3: Support for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) aims to introduce new measures to assist SMEs in advancing to a "new stage," focusing on maintaining high-quality enterprise supply and optimizing evaluation criteria for innovative SMEs [5][6] - BSE emphasizes strict monitoring and management to enhance company quality and combat various violations, while also supporting mergers and acquisitions as a tool for growth [5][6] - The BSE is promoting the participation of institutional investors in its market, encouraging long-term capital inflow and enhancing support for SMEs [6]

Group 1: Core Views - The 2025 Listed Companies Forum held in Wenzhou focused on capital market services for technological innovation and new productivity development, signaling multi-dimensional reform initiatives [1][3] - The "1+6" reform measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aim to enhance institutional attractiveness and competitiveness, promoting deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [2][3][5] Group 2: Policy Narrative - The Chinese government has emphasized improving expectation management to maximize policy effects, with over 170 billion yuan of net purchases in the Shanghai stock market from long-term funds since September 2022 [6] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for companies in the Shanghai market vary significantly based on R&D investment, indicating a positive cycle for tech innovation firms [6] Group 3: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 26% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by over 50% since the "9.26" policy announcement, demonstrating market resilience [5][6] - The overall P/E ratio of the Shanghai market increased from 10.9 times to 13.1 times, reflecting an optimization in investment style [7] Group 4: Entrepreneurial Board Developments - The ChiNext board has become a hub for high-growth, quality enterprises, with 1,380 listed companies and a total market value of 12.7 trillion yuan as of May 2023 [11] - The introduction of a third set of listing standards aims to support high-quality, unprofitable innovative companies, enhancing the board's role in serving new productivity [12][11] Group 5: North Exchange Initiatives - The North Exchange is focused on supporting innovative small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with tailored listing standards and financing systems [14][15] - The exchange aims to enhance the quality of listed companies through strict regulatory measures and support for mergers and acquisitions [18][17] Group 6: Hong Kong Market Trends - The "A+H" listing trend is expected to become a key theme in 2025, with over 30 A-share companies applying for H-share listings [19][20] - Hong Kong's IPO market has been active, with over 440 billion USD raised in 2025, ranking first globally in terms of financing [20]

Market Performance - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise over 1%, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, reaching a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index rising 3.11% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 191.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Reasons for the Rise - Market hotspots were concentrated in finance, military industry, and computer sectors, with more stocks rising than falling. The strong performance of the ChiNext 50 Index was attributed to geopolitical factors, policy support, liquidity recovery, and industry events [5] - Geopolitical developments, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, reduced market risk aversion and led to a capital influx into high-risk assets, benefiting the technology sector and the ChiNext [6] - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicated a potential for monetary easing, which may boost market risk appetite and attract foreign capital into emerging markets, particularly benefiting growth sectors like the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board [7] Policy and Market Support - Recent guidance from the central bank and six departments emphasized financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, aiming to stabilize economic fundamentals and enhance the flow of medium- to long-term capital into the market [8] - The implementation of monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and reduce financing costs is expected to promote stable development in the capital market [8] Industry Performance - The brokerage and fintech sectors showed significant performance, with news about stablecoins and regulatory approvals potentially driving valuations higher for leading brokerages [9] - Companies like CATL are benefiting from the accelerated industrialization of solid-state batteries, which are expected to become mainstream in the high-end market by 2030, presenting valuation opportunities for related firms [9] Market Outlook - Short-term focus should be on event catalysts and mid-year earnings reports, with potential for continued strength in the ChiNext if earnings exceed expectations and geopolitical stability is maintained [9] - From a mid- to long-term perspective, sectors like AI, new energy, and pharmaceuticals show clear growth logic, with the ChiNext 50 Index currently trading at a PE-TTM of approximately 31 times, below its historical average, indicating potential for valuation recovery [10]