Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of apple production reduction, the futures market is running strongly. The overall supply of late - maturing Fuji apples is low, with common quality problems. The purchase price of high - quality apples is higher than that of the previous season, and there has been a scramble for good - quality goods. The apple market is about to enter the full - scale acquisition stage. The market may realize the previous production reduction expectations, and the later driving logic will shift to the demand side. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [1][2][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the main apple futures contract AP2601 continued to run strongly, breaking through the 8,800 yuan/ton mark and maintaining high - level fluctuations. Affected by rainfall in the producing areas, the listing time of new - season apples has been postponed. Due to production decline and quality issues, the quantity of high - quality apples is scarce, and most of the good apple orchards in Shaanxi have been pre - ordered. The market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji, driving the futures market to run strongly [6]. 3.2 Apple Fundamental Analysis - **Cold Storage Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 147,900 tons, lower than the same period last year by 107,500 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history. Shandong's cold - storage inventory was about 109,600 tons, Shaanxi's was about 36,900 tons, and non - main producing areas had about 1,400 tons [10]. - **New - Season Apple Sales**: New - season apples are gradually being listed. Customers have good purchasing enthusiasm, especially for high - quality goods. The transaction price of apples in the producing areas is stable. In Shandong, the price of high - quality apples is high, with general supply and few transactions. In the northwest, most of the high - quality orchards' goods have been ordered. The arrival volume in the sales market is not large, and the overall price remains stable [16]. - **Apple Import**: In September 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 108,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.49%. It is expected that the import volume in the fourth quarter may decline, and the import scale will remain at the current level [21]. - **Apple Export**: In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32%. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the peak export seasons. It is expected that the export volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 will increase month - on - month, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand [25]. - **Seasonal Fruit Impact**: In October, fruit prices increased slightly month - on - month but were lower than the same period last year. Seasonal fruits are gradually leaving the market, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. Citrus, a major winter fruit, has a large supply and low price, competing with apples around the Spring Festival [28][31]. - **Merchant Acquisition**: In Shandong Yantai Qixia, new - season apples have started to be acquired at prices based on quality. The storage profit of 80 and above first - and second - grade apples in Qixia is 0.29 yuan/jin. Currently, low - price acquisitions have a larger profit margin [36]. - **Apple Consumption Seasonality**: Based on five - year historical price statistics, the months with a high probability of price increases are September, November, and December, while the months with a high probability of price decreases are April, August, and October [38][39]. - **New - Season Apple Quality**: Affected by rainfall, the listing time of new - season apples has been postponed. There are quality problems such as water cracks, fruit rust, small fruit size, and slow coloring in Shandong and Shaanxi. The overall supply of high - quality apples is low [42]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Supply: Late - maturing Fuji apples are in the bag - removing stage, with a generally postponed listing time. There are various quality problems in different producing areas. - Demand: Customers have high enthusiasm for purchasing new - season apples, especially high - quality ones. The transaction price in the producing areas is stable. The full - scale acquisition stage is approaching. The market may realize the previous production reduction expectations, and the later driving logic will shift to the demand side. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current time is at the end of the old - season apple inventory clearance and the stage of waiting for the new - season late - maturing Red Fuji to be listed. The cold - storage remaining volume is low, and the supply is concentrated in Shandong. The cold - storage merchants are eager to sell. The recent rainfall in the northwest may affect the quality of early - maturing apples, leading to increased purchases of cold - storage apples and a slight price increase. Some specifications may still see a price increase of 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/jin. The market generally believes that the new - season apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the purchase price of early - maturing apples in the northwest is higher than last year. The opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji is likely to be higher than the previous season. The market may reflect the previous production - reduction expectation, and the later driving logic will shift to the demand side. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [37] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of apple futures completed the roll - over. AP2601 fluctuated at a high level, first falling and then rising [8] 2. Supply - side Situation - The inventory is lower than the same period last year. As of September 11, 2025, the total remaining volume of apples in national cold - storage is 255,800 tons, the lowest in the past five years. The remaining volume in Shandong's cold - storage is 182,500 tons, and that in Shaanxi is 58,400 tons [12][13] 3. Demand - side Situation - **Inventory Clearance**: As of September 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 1.94%, with a weekly decrease of 0.38 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98 percentage points. The inventory clearance rate is 96.96%. At the end of the inventory clearance period, there are differences in the shipment situation among different cold - storages, and the data error has slightly increased [18] - **Export Volume**: In July 2025, the export volume of fresh apples is about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.39%. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the peak export seasons, and the export volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to rebound [21] - **Spot Price**: As of September 12, the mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong is stable. For 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods, the price of slice - red apples is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan/jin, and that of striped apples is 3.0 - 4.2 yuan/jin. For merchant's goods, the price of slice - red apples is 3.8 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and that of striped apples is 3.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin. The price of third - grade fruit is 2.5 - 2.6 yuan/jin, and the price of bulk goods is 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin. The price of Red General is stable, with the price of 80 and above first - and second - grade red fruit at 3.5 - 3.6 yuan/jin, and the mainstream price of first - and second - grade semi - red fruit at 2.8 - 3.1 yuan/jin [33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Ruida Futures indicates that the apple market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations [1] - According to Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, the apple price is anticipated to show a pattern of rising initially and then declining, with a focus on the new crop's performance [2] Group 2 - The new season's apple production in Shaanxi is projected to have a reduction of 5%-10% compared to last year, with the current cold storage inventory at 1.1649 million tons, down by 109,700 tons from the previous week [1] - The inventory levels in Shandong and Shaanxi are reported at 16.43% and 8.9% respectively, indicating a slower pace of sales compared to the previous week [1] - The market is currently facing increased competition from other fruits, leading to a slowdown in apple sales and putting pressure on prices, although low inventory levels provide some support [1] Group 3 - The market consensus acknowledges a reduction in the new season's apple production, which provides a bottom support for prices, while the extent of the reduction and changes in consumer demand may create upward pressure on prices [2] - The expected trading range for the apple futures contracts is estimated between 7,400-8,200 for the October contract and 7,300-8,200 for the January contract [2] - The lack of strong consumer demand and the impact of early-ripening apples and citrus fruits are noted as factors that could influence price fluctuations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of June 4, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 1382000 tons, a decrease of 137700 tons from the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi decreased, and the de - stocking speed slowed down. The apple price is under pressure due to weak demand, slow de - stocking, and a smaller - than - expected production reduction, but the low inventory provides some support, so the price will fluctuate in the short term. The market should continue to monitor the bagging situation [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract was 7551 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1780 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1801 lots. The closing price of the October contract was 7551 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) was 4.1 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) was 2.8 yuan/jin, in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) was 4.5 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70) was 4.2 yuan/jin, all with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area was 1955770 hectares, the national apple output was 49601700 tons, the average wholesale price of apples was 9.47 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.47 yuan/kg. The national apple cold storage inventory was 1382000 tons, a decrease of 137600 tons from the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.17, a decrease of 0.01 from the previous week, and in Shaanxi was 0.1, a decrease of 0.01 from the previous week. The monthly apple export volume was 70000 tons, a decrease of 30000 tons from the previous month [2] Industry Situation - The monthly apple export value was 77054000 US dollars, a decrease of 19956000 US dollars from the previous month, and the monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts was 1136680000 US dollars, an increase of 268476000 US dollars from the previous month. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants was 0.9 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines was 8.04 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of pears was 6.7 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of bananas was 6.76 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of watermelons was 4.24 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily number of arriving trucks in Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets decreased [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 16.42%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.21% [2] Industry News - On June 11, 2025, the inventory apple trading was a bit sluggish, with few inquiring and inspecting merchants in cold storage. Some eager - to - sell clearing - inventory goods were sold at discounted prices, while the price of better - quality goods was relatively stable. For the new - season apples, as the bagging work progresses, the production situation becomes clearer, and the expected production reduction in some areas has weakened. The production reduction in Shaanxi this year is expected to be 5% - 10% [2]