Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Since October, continuous rainy weather in major apple - producing areas has led to concerns about the quality and yield of early - maturing Fuji apples, causing a unilateral increase in apple futures prices, with the main contract breaking through the 9000 yuan/ton mark [1]. - The estimated output of new - season apples has been reduced to 34.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.34%, and market concerns about the quality of stored apples are rising [1]. - Considering the general domestic consumption performance, the 01 contract is expected to face pressure above 9000 yuan/ton, and later attention should be paid to changes in purchase prices and warehousing conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Production and Market Situation** - The current period is the critical verification period for apples to be harvested and stored. The estimated output of new - season apples has been reduced to 34.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.34% [1]. - **Regional Market Conditions** - In the western production areas, the transactions are nearly finished, and the warehousing market is generally stable. In the Gansu production area, the market is running smoothly with farmers storing apples in an orderly manner. In the Shaanxi production area, the transactions of high - quality and general - grade apples are basically over, with prices showing a strong trend, but the remaining inferior fruits have a large quantity and chaotic prices [1]. - In Shandong, the trading volume has increased, with high enthusiasm from purchasers and warehousing merchants, but the overall quality is slightly poor, and it is difficult to purchase high - quality apples, and prices remain stable with a slightly strong trend [1]. - Specific price information: In the Luochuan area of Shaanxi, the price of semi - commercial late - Fuji apples above 70 is 3.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin, the price of general - grade apples above 70 is 3.4 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and the mainstream order price is 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin. In the Jingning area of Gansu, the price of commercial apples above 70 is 5 - 6 yuan/jin, the mainstream price is 5 - 5.5 yuan/jin, the price of general - grade apples above 70 is about 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of damaged apples is 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin. In the Qixia area of Shandong, the price of second - grade flaky - red bagged late - Fuji apples above 80 is about 3.50 yuan/jin, the price of second - grade striped apples above 80 is about 4.00 yuan/jin, the price of general - grade apples above 80 is about 2.80 yuan/jin, and the price of third - grade apples above 80 is about 2.00 yuan/jin [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of apple production reduction, the futures market is running strongly. The overall supply of late - maturing Fuji apples is low, with common quality problems. The purchase price of high - quality apples is higher than that of the previous season, and there has been a scramble for good - quality goods. The apple market is about to enter the full - scale acquisition stage. The market may realize the previous production reduction expectations, and the later driving logic will shift to the demand side. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [1][2][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the main apple futures contract AP2601 continued to run strongly, breaking through the 8,800 yuan/ton mark and maintaining high - level fluctuations. Affected by rainfall in the producing areas, the listing time of new - season apples has been postponed. Due to production decline and quality issues, the quantity of high - quality apples is scarce, and most of the good apple orchards in Shaanxi have been pre - ordered. The market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji, driving the futures market to run strongly [6]. 3.2 Apple Fundamental Analysis - **Cold Storage Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 147,900 tons, lower than the same period last year by 107,500 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history. Shandong's cold - storage inventory was about 109,600 tons, Shaanxi's was about 36,900 tons, and non - main producing areas had about 1,400 tons [10]. - **New - Season Apple Sales**: New - season apples are gradually being listed. Customers have good purchasing enthusiasm, especially for high - quality goods. The transaction price of apples in the producing areas is stable. In Shandong, the price of high - quality apples is high, with general supply and few transactions. In the northwest, most of the high - quality orchards' goods have been ordered. The arrival volume in the sales market is not large, and the overall price remains stable [16]. - **Apple Import**: In September 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 108,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.49%. It is expected that the import volume in the fourth quarter may decline, and the import scale will remain at the current level [21]. - **Apple Export**: In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32%. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the peak export seasons. It is expected that the export volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 will increase month - on - month, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand [25]. - **Seasonal Fruit Impact**: In October, fruit prices increased slightly month - on - month but were lower than the same period last year. Seasonal fruits are gradually leaving the market, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. Citrus, a major winter fruit, has a large supply and low price, competing with apples around the Spring Festival [28][31]. - **Merchant Acquisition**: In Shandong Yantai Qixia, new - season apples have started to be acquired at prices based on quality. The storage profit of 80 and above first - and second - grade apples in Qixia is 0.29 yuan/jin. Currently, low - price acquisitions have a larger profit margin [36]. - **Apple Consumption Seasonality**: Based on five - year historical price statistics, the months with a high probability of price increases are September, November, and December, while the months with a high probability of price decreases are April, August, and October [38][39]. - **New - Season Apple Quality**: Affected by rainfall, the listing time of new - season apples has been postponed. There are quality problems such as water cracks, fruit rust, small fruit size, and slow coloring in Shandong and Shaanxi. The overall supply of high - quality apples is low [42]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Supply: Late - maturing Fuji apples are in the bag - removing stage, with a generally postponed listing time. There are various quality problems in different producing areas. - Demand: Customers have high enthusiasm for purchasing new - season apples, especially high - quality ones. The transaction price in the producing areas is stable. The full - scale acquisition stage is approaching. The market may realize the previous production reduction expectations, and the later driving logic will shift to the demand side. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [44].

Core Viewpoint - Apple futures have seen a significant increase of over 20% this year, closely tied to the current apple harvest season in China, particularly in Shaanxi province [1] Group 1: Harvest Conditions - In Shaanxi's Baishui County, the apple harvest is currently underway, with the maturity period delayed by 10 to 15 days compared to previous years, and the apples are generally smaller in size [3] - Farmers are working long hours to harvest the apples, with recent rainy weather slowing down the picking process [5] Group 2: Production and Pricing - Due to adverse weather conditions such as cold waves and strong winds during the flowering period, both the yield per acre and the quality of apples have declined this year [9] - The average yield for the "Ruixianghong" variety is approximately 5,000 pounds per acre, despite an increase in orchard area [9] - The decrease in apple production has led to a rise in market prices, with an increase of around 10% in the purchase price of apples from major production areas like Shaanxi, Gansu, and Shandong [11]