市场快讯 -- 苹果连续上涨突破9000元/吨整数位 进入10月以来,苹果主产地持续遭遇阴雨天气。引发市场对晓熟富士苹果质量与产量的深度担忧。受此影响, 苹果期货价格呈现单边上涨行情,截至今日,主力合约已强势突破9000元/吨整数关口。 当前正值苹果产业下树入库的关键验证期,卓创资讯最新数据显示,新季苹果产量预估下调至3423万吨,同比 降幅达8.34%,市场对后期存储苹果质量的担忧持续升温,多重利多因素集中发酵。主产地方面,西部产区交易已接 近尾声,入库行情整体保持稳定:甘肃产区平稳运行,果农有序开展入库,陕西产区好货及统投资发易基本结束,价 格呈现偏强态势,但次果刺余量较大,价格较为混乱。具体未看,陕西洛川产区晚富士70#以上半商品价格3.8~4.5 元/斤,70#以上统货3.4-3.8元/斤,订单价格主流3.5-3.8元/斤,多以质论价;甘肃静宁产区70#以上商品价格5-6 元/斤,主流价格在55.5元/斤,70#以上统货4.5元/斤左右,沁窗伤货源3.5-4.5元/斤。山东方面交易量增加,采购 商及入库商拿货积极性较高，但整体质量稍差,好货收购难度较大,价格维持稳中偏强态势。栖霞产区纸袋晚富于 80+ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Since October, continuous rainy weather in major apple - producing areas has led to concerns about the quality and yield of early - maturing Fuji apples, causing a unilateral increase in apple futures prices, with the main contract breaking through the 9000 yuan/ton mark [1]. - The estimated output of new - season apples has been reduced to 34.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.34%, and market concerns about the quality of stored apples are rising [1]. - Considering the general domestic consumption performance, the 01 contract is expected to face pressure above 9000 yuan/ton, and later attention should be paid to changes in purchase prices and warehousing conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Production and Market Situation** - The current period is the critical verification period for apples to be harvested and stored. The estimated output of new - season apples has been reduced to 34.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.34% [1]. - **Regional Market Conditions** - In the western production areas, the transactions are nearly finished, and the warehousing market is generally stable. In the Gansu production area, the market is running smoothly with farmers storing apples in an orderly manner. In the Shaanxi production area, the transactions of high - quality and general - grade apples are basically over, with prices showing a strong trend, but the remaining inferior fruits have a large quantity and chaotic prices [1]. - In Shandong, the trading volume has increased, with high enthusiasm from purchasers and warehousing merchants, but the overall quality is slightly poor, and it is difficult to purchase high - quality apples, and prices remain stable with a slightly strong trend [1]. - Specific price information: In the Luochuan area of Shaanxi, the price of semi - commercial late - Fuji apples above 70 is 3.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin, the price of general - grade apples above 70 is 3.4 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and the mainstream order price is 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin. In the Jingning area of Gansu, the price of commercial apples above 70 is 5 - 6 yuan/jin, the mainstream price is 5 - 5.5 yuan/jin, the price of general - grade apples above 70 is about 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of damaged apples is 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin. In the Qixia area of Shandong, the price of second - grade flaky - red bagged late - Fuji apples above 80 is about 3.50 yuan/jin, the price of second - grade striped apples above 80 is about 4.00 yuan/jin, the price of general - grade apples above 80 is about 2.80 yuan/jin, and the price of third - grade apples above 80 is about 2.00 yuan/jin [1].

（央视财经《第一时间》）今年以来，苹果主力期货合约一路震荡上行，年内累计涨幅超20%。期货价格往往与现货市场紧 密相关，近期也是全国各地苹果集中上市的时节。记者走访了我国苹果重要产地之一——陕西白水县，了解今年苹果的采收 情况。 总台央视记者 王砚楠：在陕西白水县的一处苹果种植园内，今年的苹果目前已经进入了成熟的季节。负责人表示，今年苹果 整体的成熟期较往年晚10到15天，而且整体相较于往年偏小。 记者走访当地多家果农了解到，今年受寒潮和花期大风等气候因素影响，苹果的亩产量和优果率均出现下降。苹果种植园负 责人刘军田表示，今年他果园面积扩大了，但总产量有所下降。主要种植的"瑞香红"品种的苹果，今年的亩产量仅为5000斤 左右。 苹果的产量减少，也带动苹果的市场收购价格水涨船高。一家苹果加工企业负责人表示，今年从陕西、甘肃、山东等苹果主 产区收来的苹果，价格普遍每斤要上涨10%左右。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：王一帆 早上7点，果农高存科带着采摘工人来到果园里，抓紧采摘刚成熟的苹果，分拣装箱后运往市场。高存科表示，这段时间苹 果集中上市，他每天要带着采摘工人工作到晚上6点左右。同时近期阴雨天气多，采摘进度慢。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple futures prices have significantly increased this week, with the main contract rising from 8141 yuan/ton to 8388 yuan/ton, an increase of 247 yuan/ton, driven by poor quality of early-ripening apples and low inventory levels [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The opening price of early-ripening apples, such as Chen Yang, Qin Yang, and Gala, is generally higher than the same period last year, with paper-bag Gala prices increasing by 0.3 to 1 yuan/pound year-on-year [1] - Current old apple inventory is at a historical low, creating a tight supply-demand balance that supports apple prices [1] - As of August 28, the national cold storage inventory of apples is 353,500 tons, a decrease of 50,700 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 299,600 tons [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding new season apple production, with estimates ranging from a decrease of 759,300 tons to an increase of 859,300 tons year-on-year [2] - The current apple market fundamentals are relatively stable, with no significant weather-related issues expected to affect fruit size [2] - The apple futures market is primarily focused on new season production and quality expectations, with short-term attention on early-ripening apples and weather impacts on late-ripening Fuji apples [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a possibility of price correction as the actual harvest approaches, depending on weather conditions affecting apple quality [3] - If the weather is favorable during the harvest period, apple quality may improve; however, adverse weather could lead to further price increases [3] - While apple futures prices are expected to remain strong before the new crop is widely available, medium to long-term pressures may arise if late-ripening apples grow well [3]