Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Since October, continuous rainy weather in major apple - producing areas has led to concerns about the quality and yield of early - ripe Fuji apples, causing a unilateral upward trend in apple futures prices, with the main contract breaking through the 9,000 yuan/ton mark [1]. - New - season apple production is estimated to be 34.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.34%, and market concerns about the quality of stored apples are rising [1]. - Considering the general domestic consumption performance, the 01 contract is expected to face pressure above 9,000 yuan/ton, and later attention should be paid to changes in purchase prices and storage conditions [1]. Summary by Relevant Content Market Situation - Apple futures prices have been rising unilaterally due to bad weather in major producing areas, and the main contract has broken through 9,000 yuan/ton [1]. Production - New - season apple production is estimated to be 34.23 million tons, an 8.34% year - on - year decrease [1]. Regional Market Conditions - In the western产区, the transaction is nearly over, and the storage market is stable. In the Gansu产区, it operates smoothly, and fruit farmers are storing apples in an orderly manner. In the Shaanxi产区, the trading of high - quality and general - grade apples is basically over, with prices showing a strong trend, but the price of inferior fruits is chaotic [1]. - In Shandong, trading volume has increased, with high enthusiasm from buyers and storage operators, but the overall quality is slightly poor, and it is difficult to acquire high - quality goods, with prices remaining stable and slightly strong [1]. Price Details - In the Luochuan, Shaanxi产区, the price of semi - commercial late - Fuji apples over 70 is 3.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin, general - grade apples over 70 are 3.4 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and the mainstream order price is 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin [1]. - In the Jingning, Gansu产区, the price of commercial apples over 70 is 5 - 6 yuan/jin, the mainstream price is 5 - 5.5 yuan/jin, general - grade apples over 70 are about 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of damaged apples is 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin [1]. - In the Qixia, Shandong产区, the price of second - grade strip - red late - Fuji apples over 80 is about 3.50 yuan/jin, second - grade striped apples over 80 are about 4.00 yuan/jin, general - grade apples over 80 are about 2.80 yuan/jin, and third - grade apples over 80 are about 2.00 yuan/jin [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Since October, continuous rainy weather in major apple - producing areas has led to concerns about the quality and yield of early - maturing Fuji apples, causing a unilateral increase in apple futures prices, with the main contract breaking through the 9000 yuan/ton mark [1]. - The estimated output of new - season apples has been reduced to 34.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.34%, and market concerns about the quality of stored apples are rising [1]. - Considering the general domestic consumption performance, the 01 contract is expected to face pressure above 9000 yuan/ton, and later attention should be paid to changes in purchase prices and warehousing conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Production and Market Situation** - The current period is the critical verification period for apples to be harvested and stored. The estimated output of new - season apples has been reduced to 34.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.34% [1]. - **Regional Market Conditions** - In the western production areas, the transactions are nearly finished, and the warehousing market is generally stable. In the Gansu production area, the market is running smoothly with farmers storing apples in an orderly manner. In the Shaanxi production area, the transactions of high - quality and general - grade apples are basically over, with prices showing a strong trend, but the remaining inferior fruits have a large quantity and chaotic prices [1]. - In Shandong, the trading volume has increased, with high enthusiasm from purchasers and warehousing merchants, but the overall quality is slightly poor, and it is difficult to purchase high - quality apples, and prices remain stable with a slightly strong trend [1]. - Specific price information: In the Luochuan area of Shaanxi, the price of semi - commercial late - Fuji apples above 70 is 3.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin, the price of general - grade apples above 70 is 3.4 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and the mainstream order price is 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin. In the Jingning area of Gansu, the price of commercial apples above 70 is 5 - 6 yuan/jin, the mainstream price is 5 - 5.5 yuan/jin, the price of general - grade apples above 70 is about 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of damaged apples is 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin. In the Qixia area of Shandong, the price of second - grade flaky - red bagged late - Fuji apples above 80 is about 3.50 yuan/jin, the price of second - grade striped apples above 80 is about 4.00 yuan/jin, the price of general - grade apples above 80 is about 2.80 yuan/jin, and the price of third - grade apples above 80 is about 2.00 yuan/jin [1].

Core Viewpoint - Apple futures have seen a significant increase of over 20% this year, closely tied to the current apple harvest season in China, particularly in Shaanxi province [1] Group 1: Harvest Conditions - In Shaanxi's Baishui County, the apple harvest is currently underway, with the maturity period delayed by 10 to 15 days compared to previous years, and the apples are generally smaller in size [3] - Farmers are working long hours to harvest the apples, with recent rainy weather slowing down the picking process [5] Group 2: Production and Pricing - Due to adverse weather conditions such as cold waves and strong winds during the flowering period, both the yield per acre and the quality of apples have declined this year [9] - The average yield for the "Ruixianghong" variety is approximately 5,000 pounds per acre, despite an increase in orchard area [9] - The decrease in apple production has led to a rise in market prices, with an increase of around 10% in the purchase price of apples from major production areas like Shaanxi, Gansu, and Shandong [11]

Core Viewpoint - Apple futures prices have significantly increased this week, with the main contract rising from 8141 yuan/ton to 8388 yuan/ton, an increase of 247 yuan/ton, driven by poor quality of early-ripening apples and low inventory levels [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The opening price of early-ripening apples, such as Chen Yang, Qin Yang, and Gala, is generally higher than the same period last year, with paper-bag Gala prices increasing by 0.3 to 1 yuan/pound year-on-year [1] - Current old apple inventory is at a historical low, creating a tight supply-demand balance that supports apple prices [1] - As of August 28, the national cold storage inventory of apples is 353,500 tons, a decrease of 50,700 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 299,600 tons [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding new season apple production, with estimates ranging from a decrease of 759,300 tons to an increase of 859,300 tons year-on-year [2] - The current apple market fundamentals are relatively stable, with no significant weather-related issues expected to affect fruit size [2] - The apple futures market is primarily focused on new season production and quality expectations, with short-term attention on early-ripening apples and weather impacts on late-ripening Fuji apples [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a possibility of price correction as the actual harvest approaches, depending on weather conditions affecting apple quality [3] - If the weather is favorable during the harvest period, apple quality may improve; however, adverse weather could lead to further price increases [3] - While apple futures prices are expected to remain strong before the new crop is widely available, medium to long-term pressures may arise if late-ripening apples grow well [3]