苹果周报：临近春节备货 苹果出库加快 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 第一部分 逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 ◼ 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 基 础 色 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 需求分析 苹果现货分析 221/221/221 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12-18 12-31 栖霞一、二级纸袋80# 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 栖霞一二级纸袋80#（元/斤） 洛 ...

Report Title and Information - Report Title: Apple Weekly: Approaching Spring Festival Stockpiling, Apple Outbound Speeds Up [1] - Research Institution: Galaxy Futures Co., Ltd. - Researcher: Liu Qiannan - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 - Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014425 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core View - This season's apple warehouse receipts have high costs due to a low premium fruit rate, strongly supporting apple futures prices. Although the latest cold - storage apple outbound volume on January 2 was lower year - on - year, the peak sales season is postponed because the 2026 Spring Festival is three weeks later than in 2025. With low cold - storage apple inventory, if normal outbound volume is maintained, future apple supply will be tight. It is recommended to focus on cold - storage apple outbound. If apple demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, late Fuji apple producing areas started Spring Festival stockpiling with a weak atmosphere. Traders mainly packed their own inventory, and farmers' fruit transactions were concentrated in low - priced goods. In the sales area, transit warehouses were congested, with few customers and slow overall sales. - In Shandong, overall outbound slightly accelerated but remained weak. In some areas, there was some demand for low - grade fruit, and high - grade fruit had few transactions. In Shaanxi, de - stocking accelerated slightly, with more in - query customers in Yan'an and a weak market in Weinan and Xianyang [6]. 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - As of January 15, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 49.78%, 3.55 percentage points lower than the same period last year. This week, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.35 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 10.90%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 51.37%, down 1.17 percentage points this week. In Shaanxi, it was 47.69%, down 1.49 percentage points. In Gansu, it was 49.85%, down 2.02 percentage points in two weeks. Other regions also had their own sales situations. As of January 14, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 704.66 tons, a decrease of 16.25 tons from last week, with an accelerated but still lower - than - last - year de - stocking speed [9]. 3.1.3 Demand Analysis - At the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles increased slightly. The market consumption was average, with downstream purchasing enthusiasm decreasing, transit warehouse congestion increasing, and mainly high - quality Gansu apples selling well. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on December 18 was 7.66 yuan/kg, slightly up from last Friday and at a high level in recent years. The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2025 - 2026 production season is suspended from statistics [12]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: High - cost warehouse receipts support futures prices. Although the current outbound volume is lower year - on - year, the peak sales season is postponed. With low inventory, normal outbound volume may lead to supply shortages later. - Unilateral: Go long on the May contract on dips and short the October contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: Go long on the May contract and short the October contract. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [14]. 3.2 Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Apple Supply - Demand Situation No specific text analysis provided, only data charts including apple export, planting area, consumption, and production [18]. 3.2.2 Inventory and Outbound (Mysteel) No specific text analysis provided, only data charts showing national and regional cold - storage inventory, outbound volume trends [21]. 3.2.3 Spread and Basis No specific text analysis provided, only data charts of basis and spreads between different contracts [26].

Report Title - Apple Weekly Report: Slight Increase in Demand, Faster Apple Outbound [1] Core Viewpoint - This season's apple warehouse receipt cost is high due to low premium fruit rate, strongly supporting the apple futures price. Although the current cold - storage apple outbound volume is lower than the same period last year, the Spring Festival is postponed this year, so the peak sales season is also delayed, and the current demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the outbound volume remains normal, the later apple supply will be tight. If the apple demand maintains a normal state, the price of the May contract is likely to rise [14]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Spot Analysis - **Market Situation**: This week, the number of inquiring merchants in late - Fuji apple production areas slightly increased, with different trading atmospheres in each area. The outbound of fruit farmers' goods was concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning. Most merchants packed their self - stored goods, and the trading of fruit farmers' goods focused on low - priced products. The overall shipment volume was small, and the price was stable or slightly weak. In the sales areas, the transaction was still sluggish, with reduced arrivals and increased pressure on sales and inventory in transit warehouses [6]. - **Main Production Area Prices**: In Shandong, the cold - storage trading was cold, with limited overall transfer volume. In Shaanxi, the inventory reduction speed was slightly faster than last week but still lower than the same period last year. The prices in different regions varied, such as in Penglai, 65 - 70 general goods were 2.0 - 2.2 yuan/jin, and in Luochuan, 70 above semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods were 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin [6]. 2. Supply Analysis - **Inventory Monitoring**: As of January 8, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.13%, 4.92 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In two weeks (December 25, 2025 - January 8, 2026), the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.18 percentage points, and the inventory reduction rate was 8.48%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 52.54%, with a 1.53 - percentage - point decrease in two weeks. In Shaanxi, it was 49.18%, with a 2.56 - percentage - point decrease. In Gansu, it was 51.87%, with a 3.88 - percentage - point decrease [9]. - **Steel Union Data**: As of January 7, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main national production areas was 720.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.66 million tons from last week, and the inventory reduction speed was slightly faster than last week but still lower than the same period last year [9]. 3. Demand Analysis - **Market Conditions in Guangdong**: In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of morning arrival vehicles decreased compared with last week. The market consumption was average, with reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and there was pressure on daily digestion of arrival vehicles. The inventory in transit warehouses increased, and high - quality Gansu goods were the main ones sold [12]. - **Substitute Prices**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on December 18, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.66 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, at a high level in recent years [12]. - **Profit Situation**: During the acquisition stage of the 2025 - 2026 production season, the profit statistics of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia were suspended [12]. 4. Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: High apple warehouse receipt costs support the futures price. Although the current cold - storage apple outbound volume is lower than last year, considering the postponed Spring Festival, the demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the normal outbound volume is maintained, the later supply will be tight. Pay attention to the cold - storage apple outbound situation. If the demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [14]. - **Specific Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Hold long positions in the May contract and short the October contract on rallies [14]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the May contract and short the October contract [14]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [14]. 5. Weekly Data Tracking - **Apple Supply and Demand**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided text, only relevant data charts of apple export, planting area, and consumption are presented [17][18] - **Inventory and Outbound**: Data on national and regional cold - storage inventory and outbound volume are presented in charts, showing the trends over different weeks [20][21] - **Price Difference and Basis**: Charts show the trends of 1 - 5, 5 - 10, 10 - 1 price differences and 1 - month, 5 - month, 10 - month basis over different time periods [25][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the ex - warehouse speed of late Fuji apples in production areas was slow, and the trading atmosphere was light. The arrival volume in the sales area decreased, and the sales were affected by substitutes. The inventory was at a low level compared to the same period last year, and the demand was average. It is expected that the apple price will fluctuate at a high level. The apple fundamentals are relatively strong due to the decline in production, poor high - quality fruit rate, and low cold - storage inventory [7][12][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Apple Spot Analysis - This week, the ex - warehouse speed of late Fuji apples in production areas was slow. The price in Gansu and Liaoning decreased, and other production areas were stable. The sales area's arrival volume decreased, and the sales were affected by citrus fruits [7]. - In Shandong, the ex - warehouse atmosphere was not strong, with sporadic transactions. In Shaanxi, the shipment was relatively cold, and the low - price goods were sold well [7]. - Main production area prices: In Penglai, 65 - 70 general goods were 2.2 - 2.3 yuan/jin, and 75 first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods were 3.4 - 3.6 yuan/jin. In Qixia, 80 above cream Fuji was 1.8 - 2.2 yuan/jin, and late Fuji 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods were 3.7 - 4.5 yuan/jin. In Luochuan, 70 above semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods were 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and high - grade inferior goods were 2.2 yuan/jin [7]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of December 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 54.65%, 7.22 percentage points lower than the same period last year. This week, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.35 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 2.17%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 55.09%, and it decreased by 0.24 percentage points. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi was 53.12%, and it decreased by 0.36 percentage points [12]. - As of December 10, 2025, the national main production area apple cold - storage inventory was 758.55 million tons, a decrease of 4.97 million tons from last week [12]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrivals decreased. The market was generally light, and the enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers to purchase was not high [15]. - On December 11, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.51 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, at a high level in recent years [15]. - During the 2025 - 2026 production season's purchase stage, the profit statistics of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants were suspended [15]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The apple production decreased this year, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, the preservation was difficult, and the cold - storage inventory data was low. The cold - storage apple inventory peak was at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality was relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong [16]. - Unilateral: The new apple quality is relatively poor, which supports the price, but the recent demand is average. It is expected that the apple trend will mainly fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Apple Weekly Report: Low Cold Storage Fruit Volume Supports Fruit Prices [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [1] - Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014425 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis Spot Analysis - This week, the overall transaction of late Fuji apples remained light. In the producing areas, orders from merchants were limited. In the western producing areas, small - quantity shipments of polar fruits from fruit farmers were the main source, and some merchants supplied the market with their self - stored goods. In Shandong, the foreign trade channel purchasing slowed down, and the transaction of small fruits decreased. In the sales areas, the number of incoming trucks increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere was still light, and there was a slight backlog in the transfer warehouses. Citrus fruits affected the sales of apples [7]. - In Shandong, the overall transaction was slow, and the price of fruit farmers' goods remained stable. The foreign trade channel continued to look for goods but at a slower pace, mainly for 65 - 75 small fruits. The ex - warehouse price of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods in Qixia was 3.7 - 4.5 yuan/jin, with few transactions; the ex - warehouse price of 65 and 70 small fruits in Penglai was 2 - 2.2 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi, fruit farmers' willingness to ship was still low. In Luochuan, merchants mainly packed their own goods and sent them through their own channels, with a small amount of purchasing from fruit farmers' polar fruits. In Weinan, sporadic shipments occurred, and the sales of high - grade inferior fruits were okay, but the purchase of good fruits from fruit farmers by merchants was limited. The current price of semi - commercial fruits from fruit farmers above 70 in Luochuan was around 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and high - grade inferior fruits were around 2.2 yuan/jin. In Baishui, the mainstream ex - warehouse price of fruit farmers' general goods was about 3.2 - 3.4 yuan/jin [7]. Supply Analysis - As of December 4, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 55.00%, 7.68 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From November 27 to December 3, 2025, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.38 percentage points, the single - week ex - warehouse volume increased by 0.07 percentage points compared with last week, and the inventory removal rate was 1.55%. The shipment in Shaanxi and Gansu slowed down, but the inventory in surrounding areas such as Shanxi changed from increasing to decreasing, so the national cold storage inventory shipment increased slightly compared with last week. The cold storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 55.33%, and it decreased by 0.28 percentage points this week. The ex - warehouse in Shandong was mainly for export and the sales of other varieties, and the market shipment was small. The cold storage transaction volume was average, the transaction volume of small and medium - sized fruits decreased, and the packaging also decreased slightly. The ex - warehouse in Shaanxi was 53.48%, and it decreased by 0.41 percentage points this week. The cold storage transaction and shipment volume decreased compared with last week due to the off - season and the impact of citrus [12]. - As of December 3, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the national main producing areas was 7.6351 million tons, a decrease of 32,400 tons compared with last week [12]. Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of incoming trucks in the morning increased compared with last week, with an average of about 26.80 trucks per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late Fuji in baskets was 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes was 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan late Fuji in baskets starting from 70 was 4.0 - 5.5 yuan/jin, and that of Jingning late Fuji in boxes starting from 70 was 5.8 - 7.5 yuan/jin. Recently, the number of incoming trucks in the market increased slightly, but the sales slowed down compared with the previous period. The goods from Gansu sold well, while the sales of other goods were average. The purchasing enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers was not high, and there was pressure on daily digestion, with an increase in the backlog in transfer warehouses [15]. - According to the data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on December 4, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.31 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, and it was at a high level in the same period in recent years [15]. - In the 2025 - 2026 production season, during the acquisition stage, the profit statistics of 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia were suspended [15]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: This year, the apple production decreased, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and the preservation difficulty increased. The market expected that the cold storage inventory data was likely to be low. The peak cold storage apple inventory this year was at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality was relatively poor, so the effective inventory was expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals were strong [16]. - Unilateral: The relatively poor quality of new apples supports the fruit price, and the demand is average. It is expected that the apple trend will be mainly high - level oscillation [16]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Group 4: Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - The chart shows the consumption, deep - processing volume, production, export, and planting area of apples from 2018 to 2023 [20]. Inventory and Shipment - The chart shows the cold storage inventory trends of apples in the whole country, Shandong, and Shaanxi from 2017/18 to 2025/26, as well as the national apple cold storage ex - warehouse trend from 2016/17 to 2024/25 [23][24][25]. Spread and Basis - The chart shows the 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, 10 - 1 spread, and the basis of January, May, and October from 2019 to 2025 [28].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the report's industry is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The current season's apple market is affected by the storage structure, leading to a significant price polarization. In the short - to - medium - term, with the upcoming Christmas and New Year's Day stocking, the price is expected to be stable and slightly strong due to the shortage of high - quality apples and peak - season demand. However, the market is currently in a slow - moving off - season, with weak consumer demand and competition from citrus fruits [1][2][4]. - Red dates: The market is in a "new - old season transition" period. There is a strong expectation of a new - season production reduction, but the extent is undetermined, and the quality this year is better than last year. The market has a pessimistic outlook due to large inventory pressure and unsolved supply - demand contradictions. The futures price trend depends on the terminal market's acceptance of new - season high - price spot goods [8][9]. Group 3: Apple Market Summary Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2605 contract was 9,605 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton or 1.10% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, also unchanged. The spot basis AP05 - 1405 and AP05 - 1205 increased by 107 compared to the previous day [1]. Recent Market Information - Inventory trading of late Fuji is slow. In the western production areas, there is sporadic sourcing by merchants, mainly for two - grade fruit farmer's supply, with limited transactions. In Shandong, there is sporadic warehousing out, and the export of small fruits has slowed. Terminal market consumption is slow, and the low - price competition from citrus fruits has an impact. The inventory trading is light, the warehousing - out speed is slow, and the merchants' sourcing enthusiasm is not high. It is expected that today's transactions will remain light and prices will be mainly stable [2]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price fluctuated and declined yesterday. The inventory of late Fuji in western and Shandong production areas is mainly warehoused out on a sporadic and as - needed basis. Merchants' sourcing enthusiasm is generally low, and they mainly replenish in small quantities or supply the market with their self - stored goods. The warehousing - out progress in the production areas slowed down last week, and the merchants' ordering enthusiasm decreased. The sales area market has slow digestion, and citrus fruits have an obvious impact on medium - and lower - quality apples. It is expected to remain in an off - season market in the short term, with prices mainly stable [3]. Strategy - The strategy is to be bullish with fluctuations. Considering the impact of the storage structure this season, quality issues will be the key factor affecting the long - term apple market trend. In the short - to - medium - term, the price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [4]. Group 4: Red Dates Market Summary Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract was 9,030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 530 increased by 25 compared to the previous day [5]. Recent Market Information - The acquisition progress of grey dates in Xinjiang production areas is 80% - 90%. The acquisition in the Third Division and Maigaiti areas is relatively fast, with only some low - quality and price - holding sellers remaining. The mainstream purchase prices vary by region. In the sales areas, the Hebei Cuierzhuang and Guangdong Ruyifang markets have sufficient supply. The new - season dates have a large price difference due to cost and quality. Some holders are selling at a discount, and the transaction price is weakly stable. Downstream merchants are purchasing as needed [6][7]. Market Analysis - The red dates futures price showed a downward trend yesterday. The sales areas have sufficient supply, mainly trading new - season dates with large price differences due to cost and quality. Some holders are selling at a discount, and the transaction price is weakly stable. The market is in a "new - old season transition" period. The new - season production reduction is strongly expected but the extent is undetermined, and the quality is better than last year. The acquisition enthusiasm in the sales area spot market has decreased after the continuous price decline. The inventory of 36 sample points has been accumulating, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market has a pessimistic outlook for the future [8]. Strategy - The strategy is neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - price new - season spot goods in the production area, the futures price will move closer to the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to decline. According to the 2025 red dates delivery rule modification by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the old - season red dates can still participate in delivery with lower costs than the new - season ones, so the near - month contracts may still have some room for decline [9].

Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Oscillating and Bullish [3] Core View - The apple market is in a slow - moving state with regional price differentiation. In the short - to - medium term, prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong due to the approaching Christmas and New Year's Day holidays and the tight supply of high - quality goods [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2605 contract was 9712 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, up 0.35 yuan/jin from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day [1] - The inventory of late Fuji is in light trading. In the western and Shandong production areas, merchants' procurement enthusiasm is low, and the market is mainly supplied by self - stored goods or small - quantity purchases. The sales area has a slow digestion rate, and citrus fruits have a significant impact on medium - and low - grade apple supplies [1][2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated and closed lower. The overall apple market trading is light, the production area's delivery rhythm is slow, and prices show regional differentiation. The market is in a slack season, and prices are expected to be stable, waiting for festival stocking [2] Strategy - The strategy is oscillating and bullish. Quality issues will be the key factor affecting the long - term apple market trend. In the short - to - medium term, prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong due to the approaching festivals and the tight supply of high - quality goods [3] Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating - Red dates: Neutral [7] Core View - The red date market is in a critical "new - old season transition" period. There is a strong expectation of a new - season production reduction, but the extent is undetermined. The current market has high inventory pressure and a pessimistic future outlook [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract was 9055 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] - The acquisition of gray dates in Xinjiang's main production areas is about 80% complete. The mainstream prices in different regions vary. The sales areas' markets have different trading situations, with some price differences and weak transactions [4][5] Market Analysis - The red date futures price declined yesterday. The sales area is in a state of "new - old season transition." The new - season production reduction expectation is strong, but the extent is undetermined, and the quality is better than last year. The inventory pressure is high, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, leading to a pessimistic market outlook [6] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - priced new - season spot, it will drive the futures price to approach the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to decline. Due to the changes in the delivery rules, the old - season red dates can still participate in delivery with lower costs, so the near - month contracts may still have some room for decline [7]

Apple Market Insights - The apple futures contract closed at 9712 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous day [2][12] - In the spot market, the price of late Fuji apples in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, up 0.35 yuan/jin, while in Shaanxi Luochuan, the price was 4.20 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin [2][12] - Recent market activity shows that late Fuji inventory is high, with limited trading and low enthusiasm from buyers, particularly in western production areas [3][14] Market Analysis - The apple market is experiencing slow trading and a gradual pace of inventory release, with prices showing regional differentiation [3][14] - The demand from buyers in western and Shandong production areas is low, primarily relying on sporadic replenishment or self-stored supplies [3][14] - The market is expected to remain in a weak seasonal trend, with prices stabilizing as it awaits holiday stocking [3][14] Strategy - The outlook is for a strong fluctuation, with significant price differentiation due to inventory structure and quality issues impacting future market trends [4][15] - The upcoming holiday season is anticipated to support demand, with expectations for prices to remain stable to slightly strong [4][15] Red Date Market Insights - The red date futures contract closed at 9055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton or 0.60% from the previous day [5][16] - In the spot market, the price of first-grade gray dates in Hebei was stable at 8.50 yuan/kg [5][16] - The purchasing progress in Xinjiang's gray date production areas is around 80%, with varying prices across different regions [6][17] Market Analysis - The red date market is currently in a transitional phase between new and old seasons, with a significant reduction in new season production expected [7][18] - The market is facing inventory pressure due to the overlap of new and old products, leading to a pessimistic outlook for future prices [7][18] - The demand for new products is weak, and the purchasing enthusiasm from traders is low, contributing to a decline in prices [7][18] Strategy - The outlook is neutral, with the potential for futures prices to align with new season spot prices if the market can absorb the current high prices [8][19] - Conversely, if high prices lead to continued inventory accumulation, new season prices may decline further [8][19]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Apple strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date strategy: Neutral to bearish [8] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm in the short term, and the price of ordinary goods will remain stable. The market should focus on the inventory volume in Shandong and Shanxi and the shipping speed in the western region [2][3] - Red dates: The new red dates are expected to be listed intensively, and the inventory pressure is high. The future market trend depends on the actual consumption at the consumer end [7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of Apple 2601 contract was 9438 yuan/ton, a change of - 132 yuan/ton or - 1.38% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commodity late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of Red date 2601 contract was 9270 yuan/ton, a change of + 80 yuan/ton or + 0.87% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - Western出库 work continues, with more buyers in western warehouses. Ground transactions are ending, mainly in Shanxi paper - wrapped film area and western towns of Shandong Qixia. The quality of ground goods is declining, and fruit farmers are selling at market prices [2] - The price of high - quality apples in the west is expected to remain stable and firm, and the price of ordinary goods will remain stable [2] Red dates - The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is uneven. The acquisition in Ruoqiang, Hetian and Qiemo is basically over, while that in Aksu and Alar is accelerating. The market adheres to the principle of pricing by quality [6] - The spot price in the sales area is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term [6] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The futures price showed a downward trend yesterday. The western出库 work is advancing, and the warehouse transactions in Gansu and Shaanxi are active. The ground transactions are ending, and the inventory volume is lower than last year [3] - The sales area is in the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed by citrus [3] Red dates - The futures price rose slightly yesterday. The acquisition progress in the main production areas is uneven, and the enterprises' acquisition enthusiasm is average [7] - The acquisition enthusiasm in the sales area has weakened, and the inventory is accumulating. The quality of new dates is better than last year [7] Group 6: Charts - There are multiple charts related to apple and red date prices, futures contracts, yields, consumption, inventory, and shipment volume, with data sources from Steel Union and Huatai Futures Research Institute [10]

Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral to bullish [4] Core View - The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm, and attention should be paid to the total amount and structure of apple storage this week. The commodity rate of apples this year is low, and the storage volume is lower than the same period last year [3][4] Summary by Directory - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9,207 yuan/ton, a change of - 22 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.24%. The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day [1] - **Recent Market Information**: The ground trading of late Fuji in the producing areas is coming to an end, and the western producing areas are gradually shifting to in - warehouse trading. The出库 price of the same quality is firmer than that during the purchase period. It is expected that the price of high - quality goods will remain stable and firm in the short term, and the price of general goods will remain stable. The peak of storage this week may occur [2] - **Market Analysis**: The apple futures price fell slightly yesterday. As the storage enters the later stage, the price of high - quality goods is expected to remain stable and firm. The trading atmosphere in the sales areas is still light, and the demand side is under pressure. The overall出库 price of farmers' goods is about 0.3 yuan higher than that on the ground [3] - **Strategy**: Neutral to bullish. The supply of late Fuji has increased, but the commodity rate this year is low. The storage volume is lower than the same period last year [4] Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [8] Core View - The recent decline of red date futures is obvious, and the market game has increased. The market expectation is relatively pessimistic. Attention should be paid to the changes in purchase price, jujube quality and peak - season consumption [7][8] Summary by Directory - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of Red Dates 2601 contract yesterday was 9,365 yuan/ton, a change of - 130 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.37%. The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9.00 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day [5] - **Recent Market Information**: The purchase progress in Aksu and Alar regions has accelerated, and the price has slightly loosened. The purchase enthusiasm of enterprises is average. The new - season finished products in Hebei and Guangdong markets have been listed, with a small price adjustment. The purchase enthusiasm of downstream merchants is general [6] - **Market Analysis**: The red date futures price continued to decline yesterday. The raw material purchase in the producing areas is based on quality, and the purchase enthusiasm of enterprises is average. The inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The quality of jujubes is better than that of the same period last year. The actual consumption situation in the consumption end will become another focus [7] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The red date futures have declined significantly recently, and the market expectation is pessimistic. Attention should be paid to the changes in purchase price, jujube quality and peak - season consumption [8]