Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has fallen below 1700 yuan for the first time, raising concerns about the brand's market value and signaling a significant shift in consumer perception and market dynamics [1][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movement - The wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1690 yuan, a decrease of 25 yuan from the previous day, marking a new low since its market introduction [3]. - The price has seen a cumulative decline of over 31% from its initial prices of 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan [3]. - The price trajectory has shown a consistent downward trend since June 2025, with significant drops below key psychological thresholds of 2000 yuan, 1900 yuan, and 1800 yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai's price is attributed to a combination of market adjustments and changing consumer behaviors, reflecting a broader trend of rational consumption and economic restructuring in China [6][9]. - Moutai's previous status as a financial investment product has diminished, as the market shifts from viewing it as a luxury or collectible item to recognizing it primarily as an alcoholic beverage [6][8]. Group 3: Consumer Perception - The perception of Moutai as a "hard currency" has been challenged, with its financial attributes being diluted as consumers reassess its value based on actual consumption rather than speculative investment [8][9]. - The increasing production capacity of Moutai has led to a more stable market supply, countering the previously exaggerated notions of scarcity [9]. - Younger consumers are showing a preference for other alcoholic beverages, which further impacts Moutai's long-term growth potential [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current price of 1700 yuan may not be the final destination for Moutai, as ongoing market developments and shifts in consumer demand could lead to further price adjustments [10]. - There is speculation that Moutai could revert to its official pricing of 1499 yuan if market supply increases or consumer demand decreases [10].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has continued to decline in 2025, reflecting a weakening demand in the high-end liquor market and a shift towards a more consumer-oriented pricing structure [1][6][7]. Price Trends - As of June 25, 2025, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) has dropped to 1830 CNY per bottle from 1915 CNY, a decrease of 85 CNY [1][2]. - The retail price on e-commerce platforms has also seen significant reductions, with some listings as low as 1760 CNY for a single bottle [3]. - Year-to-date, the price of Feitian Moutai has seen a cumulative decline of 440 CNY (19.82%) for scattered bottles and 485 CNY (20.95%) for original boxes [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to increased supply and weakened demand, with production capacity reaching 65,000 tons in 2024, a 12% year-on-year increase [6][7]. - The investment and collection demand for Moutai has decreased from 35% in 2020 to 18% in 2025, indicating a shift away from viewing Moutai as a financial asset [6][7]. Impact on Company Valuation - The decline in prices has led to a decrease in the market valuation of Kweichow Moutai, with its market cap falling below 2 trillion CNY, reflecting changing investor expectations regarding future profitability [7]. - The price drop is expected to influence the entire high-end liquor sector, including brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [7][8]. Regulatory Environment - The introduction of stricter regulations on alcohol consumption in government settings has caused a short-term emotional impact on the liquor market, although the actual effect on sales is limited due to the reduced reliance on government consumption [9][10]. - The industry is facing pressures to manage inventory and control prices, with total inventory reaching 167.86 billion CNY in 2024 [10][11]. Strategic Adjustments - Companies are adapting by enhancing digital management and monitoring inventory through platforms like "i Moutai" to maintain pricing structures [10]. - There is a notable shift towards product innovation and diversification of sales channels, including international markets, to reduce dependence on domestic sales [10][11].