在资本市场上，贵州茅台代表着传统价值投资巅峰。其稳固的品牌护城河，可持续的现金流，以及可理 解的商业模式，并没有发生根本的改变。在这个意义上，茅台的"王者价位"无需被"保卫"。它早已不只 是一瓶酒，更是一种品牌价值认知。 每经品牌价值研究院 付克友 A股正在书写新历史，"股价之王"或将易主。8月22日，寒武纪股价"20cm涨停"，站上1243.2元历史新 高，距贵州茅台仅差220元，市值突破5200亿元。 一步之遥，王座撼动。一边是"芯片新贵"，一边是"白酒之王"。科技"市梦率"与消费"护城河"，正在上 演一场股价追逐的品牌对决。网络热议所谓"茅台保卫战"，风生水起。 但这不只是股价之争，更是一个深刻的时代信号。它标志着中国资本市场正用真金白银，拥抱一个由科 技创新主导的产业未来，折射出产业风向之变、价值逻辑之变。 寒武纪暴涨，源于三重推力的集中爆发。 其一，国产算力突围。自主可控AI芯片需求突飞猛进，寒武纪思元590在推理性能上，已可比肩国际巨 头。DeepSeek-V3.1等国产大模型明确支持下一代国产芯片，落地场景大开。资本市场将选票投给代表 未来生产力的硬科技，争夺国际竞争主动权。 其二，定价逻辑切换 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai reported a stable performance in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [2][6][7] Financial Performance - Moutai's revenue from Moutai liquor reached 75.590 billion yuan, growing by 10.24% year-on-year [2][6] - Daily net profit for Moutai in the first half of the year was approximately 249 million yuan [2] - The total operating income for the first half was 89.389 billion yuan, compared to 81.931 billion yuan in the same period last year, reflecting a 9.10% increase [5][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.403 billion yuan, up from 41.696 billion yuan, marking an 8.89% increase [5][10] - Cash flow from operating activities showed a significant decline of 64.18%, amounting to 13.119 billion yuan [10][12] Market Challenges - In Q2, Moutai's revenue was 38.788 billion yuan, a 7.28% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 18.555 billion yuan, up 5.25%, both below market expectations [7][8] - Series liquor sales revenue in Q2 showed a decline, with a drop of 2.81 billion yuan compared to Q1 [8] - Sales expenses increased by 24.56% to 3.26 billion yuan, indicating pressure to maintain revenue growth [9][10] Asset and Receivables Growth - As of June 30, 2025, Moutai's cash and cash equivalents totaled 142.885 billion yuan, with a significant increase in receivables: accounts receivable rose by 100.07% and notes receivable by 41.9% [7][10][11] Strategic Focus - Moutai is focusing on international market expansion and engaging younger consumers as part of its long-term strategy [15][18] - The company aims to transform its customer base, service offerings, and consumption scenarios to attract new demographics [15][16] - Moutai's overseas revenue exceeded 2.893 billion yuan, a 31.29% increase year-on-year, highlighting the potential for growth in the international market [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting fortunes of the ice cream market in China, highlighting the rapid growth of the brand "野人先生" (Mr. Wildman) amidst a general decline in high-end ice cream investments and sales, exemplified by the struggles of established brands like Häagen-Dazs and the bankruptcy of钟薛高 (Chongxuegao) [3][15][19]. Market Trends - The consumer investment landscape has been sluggish for several years, with a significant drop in the number and amount of investments in the consumer sector, particularly in ice cream [4][16]. - Data from CVSource indicates that investment activity in the consumer sector has decreased, with many investment firms in East China, South China, and Northern regions reporting only single-digit project launches in 2025 [4]. Company Performance - "野人先生" has opened 500 new stores in just five months, surpassing Häagen-Dazs' 247 stores in China, and is in the process of initiating an IPO [7][19]. - The brand's pricing strategy positions its ice cream at around 28-38 yuan, which is considered high-end, yet it has managed to maintain a gross margin exceeding 60% and a payback period of 12 months for franchise stores [12][13]. Founder Background - The founder, 崔渐为 (Cui Jianwei), has a background in finance and a personal story of transitioning from a high-paying job to entrepreneurship, driven by insights gained from his experience in the Italian ice cream market [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The overall ice cream market in China is projected to grow from 180 billion yuan in 2024 to 220 billion yuan by 2025, indicating a robust demand despite the challenges faced by premium brands [19]. - The article notes that consumer preferences are shifting towards value-for-money products, which may explain the struggles of high-end brands and the success of "野人先生" [16]. Competitive Landscape - The article contrasts "野人先生" with other high-end brands that have faced difficulties, such as the decline of茅台冰淇淋 (Moutai Ice Cream) and the bankruptcy of钟薛高, suggesting a potential shift in consumer behavior towards more affordable options [15][18]. - The success of "野人先生" is attributed to its focus on fresh ingredients and strategic store locations, primarily in indoor shopping centers, which allows for year-round sales [20].

来源：红星新闻 2025年，中国白酒行业在消费代际更迭与宏观经济波动下加速分化。 作为市场晴雨表的53度飞天茅台，其价格走势与销售动向持续牵动行业神经。 近日，红星新闻走访了多家线下门店以及采访多地酒商发现，尽管市场环境波动，53度飞天茅台终端价格整体平 稳，与此同时，茅台的客群与场景也在发生转变。 除了价格外，库存问题也是白酒行业关注的重点。 价格与销量：价格平稳，库存相对健康 今年以来，茅台酒市场价格相关信息备受市场关注。 8月8日，红星新闻记者从成都市区多家连锁超市、酒行了解到，目前散瓶装53度飞天茅台售价比较平稳。多地酒 商也表示，价格体系呈现区域分化但整体稳中有升的特征。 记者从河南酒商处了解到，近年来，茅台持续为经销商提供丰富的市场支持，包括品鉴会、文化推广、走进企 业、圈层拓展等活动，帮助经销商和客户强化品牌认知、拓展客群。 同时，有酒商表示，当前郑州市场飞天茅台库存处于合理区间。随着中秋旺季临近，动销有望加速，库存将进一 步回归健康。 贵州酒商表示，茅台为经销商提供一系列市场活动支持，比如开展品鉴会、文化推广活动等，助力提升品牌影响 力和产品销量。就库存水平而言，目前处于相对健康状态，没有出现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ice cream industry in China is undergoing significant changes, with high-priced brands like "钟薛高" facing decline while mid-range brands like "野人先生" are experiencing growth due to shifting consumer preferences towards health and quality [5][13][21]. Market Dynamics - The ice cream market has shifted from being a luxury item to a more accessible product, with historical context showing its evolution from simple ice pops to a diverse range of offerings [6][8][9]. - The entry of foreign brands has transformed the market, leading to a competitive landscape where premium brands like Häagen-Dazs were once seen as the pinnacle of luxury [9][10]. Consumer Behavior - Recent trends indicate that consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, with a significant portion preferring ice cream priced below 15 yuan, reflecting a return to more affordable options [10][11][21]. - Health concerns are influencing consumer choices, leading to a preference for lower-sugar and healthier options, which has contributed to the decline of high-sugar ice creams [12][16]. Brand Performance - "钟薛高" has seen a decline in popularity, with its high-priced offerings failing to sustain consumer interest, while "野人先生" has capitalized on the demand for fresh, hand-crafted gelato at a more reasonable price point [13][14][20]. - "野人先生" has rapidly expanded, becoming a leading player in the gelato market with over 800 stores, focusing on fresh ingredients and innovative flavors [14][17]. Future Outlook - The ice cream industry is entering a phase where quality and price balance will be crucial, with brands needing to innovate rather than compete solely on price to avoid falling into a "low-price trap" [22][26]. - The success of brands like DQ, which have adapted their product offerings and marketing strategies, highlights the importance of continuous innovation and responsiveness to consumer preferences [24][25].

Core Insights - Domestic brands are rapidly rising and may redefine the ice cream market landscape [1] - The ice cream market is experiencing intense competition, with local players thriving while international giants face challenges [1][8] Company Overview - The ice cream brand "Bobby Ice" has surpassed 1,150 stores across 27 provinces and over 150 cities as of July 24 [1][3] - Bobby Ice's rapid expansion includes adding over 650 stores in the past year and a half, which is 1.3 times the total number of stores opened in the previous 13 years [3] Product Innovation - Bobby Ice's unique selling point is the use of freshly baked waffles as a base for ice cream, enhancing the product's appeal [3] - The brand offers around 30 SKUs, including ice cream desserts, waffle series, sundae ice creams, and more, with prices starting from 10 to 16 yuan [4][5] - The introduction of customizable toppings has increased product personalization and average transaction value [4] Market Trends - The overall ice cream market is projected to grow, with an estimated 44,000 ice cream stores nationwide by May 2025, reflecting an 18.97% increase from the end of 2022 [8] - New Chinese-style ice cream brands are emerging, offering affordable options compared to traditional high-end Italian Gelato [10] Competitive Landscape - Established brands like "Mr. Wildman" and "Zhongyaotang" are also expanding rapidly, with Mr. Wildman opening over 160 stores in 2024 alone [10] - Traditional brands like Häagen-Dazs are struggling, with reports of store closures and a significant reduction in total store count [12][14] - The market is witnessing a shift as some brands, such as Moutai Ice Cream, are retracting from the market after initial success [14]

Industry Overview - The ice cream market in China has shifted from a "consumption upgrade" phase characterized by high-priced premium products to a resurgence of low-priced ice creams, indicating a return to more affordable options [2][9] - The market size of China's ice cream industry has grown significantly, from 839 billion yuan in 2015 to 1835 billion yuan in 2024, with projections to exceed 2000 billion yuan by 2027 [10] Market Dynamics - High-end ice cream brands are facing challenges, with reports of store closures and declining sales, exemplified by Häagen-Dazs and Meiji, which have seen significant operational difficulties in China [3][6] - The consumer sentiment has shifted towards price sensitivity, with 54% of consumers preferring products priced below 5 yuan, while only 31% are willing to pay between 10-30 yuan for premium options [14] Competitive Landscape - The emergence of a "quality-price ratio" era is reshaping the competitive landscape, where brands must balance quality and price to attract consumers [17][19] - Brands that maintain high quality while offering reasonable prices are gaining consumer favor, as seen with innovative products like the jasmine lychee ice cream from "Raising a Cow" [17][19] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly focused on the intrinsic value of products, prioritizing quality and safety over brand prestige, leading to a decline in tolerance for high prices without corresponding quality [8][12] - The trend of nostalgia and flavor innovation is prevalent, with brands reviving classic products and introducing unique flavors to enhance consumer experience [19]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai, once considered a "myth of only rising," has experienced a significant decline, leading to substantial losses for investors and a panic sell-off in the market [1][3]. Price Movement - On July 15, 2023, the price of 2025 Flying Moutai dropped from 1940 yuan to 1930 yuan, while the price of scattered bottles fell from 1880 yuan to 1870 yuan. The 2024 Flying Moutai also saw a decline, with original box prices dropping from 1960 yuan to 1950 yuan and scattered bottle prices falling below 1850 yuan [1][8]. - The price of Moutai 1935 plummeted to 590 yuan per bottle on e-commerce platforms, only 30% of the official guide price. Compared to the peak price of over 4000 yuan in 2021, Moutai prices have shrunk by more than 30% [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to three main factors: the implementation of the strictest "ban on alcohol," a downturn in the real estate sector affecting business banquets, and an oversupply in the market with social inventory reaching 120 million bottles [3][4]. - The demand for Moutai in business settings has significantly decreased, leading to a loss of a crucial consumer base [4]. Inventory Pressure - The total inventory, including Moutai's own stock, amounts to 560 million bottles, indicating an average of nearly 2 bottles per Chinese household. Approximately 60% of unopened Moutai is being liquidated by speculators, exacerbating the market's downward pressure [4][5]. Channel Transformation - The rise of e-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo has driven down the price of Flying Moutai to the range of 1700-1800 yuan, below many distributors' costs. Moutai is also increasing its direct sales through the iMoutai app, raising the direct sales ratio to 45% [5][6]. Industry Impact - Moutai's price collapse has affected the entire liquor industry, with the price range of 1000 yuan being breached. Other liquor companies, such as Wuliangye, are also under pressure to maintain their price points [6][7]. Consumer Trends - The consumption of liquor has been declining, with the industry experiencing an 8-year consecutive drop in production. The younger generation shows a decreasing interest in liquor, with only 9% of Gen Z consuming it, and 73% reducing their alcohol intake for health reasons [7][10]. - Moutai's attempts to attract younger consumers through new products have not yielded positive results, indicating a struggle to connect with this demographic [10].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has continued to decline in 2025, reflecting a weakening demand in the high-end liquor market and a shift towards a more consumer-oriented pricing structure [1][6][7]. Price Trends - As of June 25, 2025, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) has dropped to 1830 CNY per bottle from 1915 CNY, a decrease of 85 CNY [1][2]. - The retail price on e-commerce platforms has also seen significant reductions, with some listings as low as 1760 CNY for a single bottle [3]. - Year-to-date, the price of Feitian Moutai has seen a cumulative decline of 440 CNY (19.82%) for scattered bottles and 485 CNY (20.95%) for original boxes [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to increased supply and weakened demand, with production capacity reaching 65,000 tons in 2024, a 12% year-on-year increase [6][7]. - The investment and collection demand for Moutai has decreased from 35% in 2020 to 18% in 2025, indicating a shift away from viewing Moutai as a financial asset [6][7]. Impact on Company Valuation - The decline in prices has led to a decrease in the market valuation of Kweichow Moutai, with its market cap falling below 2 trillion CNY, reflecting changing investor expectations regarding future profitability [7]. - The price drop is expected to influence the entire high-end liquor sector, including brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [7][8]. Regulatory Environment - The introduction of stricter regulations on alcohol consumption in government settings has caused a short-term emotional impact on the liquor market, although the actual effect on sales is limited due to the reduced reliance on government consumption [9][10]. - The industry is facing pressures to manage inventory and control prices, with total inventory reaching 167.86 billion CNY in 2024 [10][11]. Strategic Adjustments - Companies are adapting by enhancing digital management and monitoring inventory through platforms like "i Moutai" to maintain pricing structures [10]. - There is a notable shift towards product innovation and diversification of sales channels, including international markets, to reduce dependence on domestic sales [10][11].

Core Insights - The luxury ice cream brands, particularly "Chong Xue Gao" and Häagen-Dazs, are facing significant operational challenges and declining market presence, leading to store closures and financial difficulties [1][2][12] - Consumer sentiment has shifted towards rational consumption, with a growing skepticism towards high-priced ice creams, resulting in a market correction [15][22][30] Group 1: Market Trends - The hashtag IceCreamAssassinIsBankrupt has gained 17.83 million views on Weibo, highlighting the public's awareness of the crisis in the premium ice cream sector [1] - "Chong Xue Gao" has seen its product offerings reduced to only three flavors on its Tmall flagship store, with customer service citing "operational difficulties" [2] - Häagen-Dazs has reduced its store count from over 400 to 250 in just a year and a half, indicating a significant contraction in its market presence [12] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - A survey indicated that over 60% of consumers believe that the high prices of ice creams are due to excessive marketing costs rather than quality [21] - The emergence of new beverage categories, such as new tea drinks, has diverted consumer spending away from traditional ice cream products [21] - The trend of rational consumption is reinforced by regulatory measures, such as the implementation of clear pricing regulations in major cities [22] Group 3: Brand Performance - "Chong Xue Gao" experienced a rapid rise and fall, with its revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan within 16 months of its launch, but has since faced numerous lawsuits and negative publicity [10][8] - Häagen-Dazs reported a 3.2% decline in sales in China for the fiscal year ending May 2025, with a double-digit drop in customer traffic [12] - The brand's high-end image is being challenged as consumers increasingly seek value for money, leading to a decline in its market appeal [30]