中金发布研报称，2025年3月以来草甘膦价格稳步上行，且5月以来上行趋势加速，8月末价格较年内低 点已上涨约24%至2.73万元/吨。短期维度，草甘膦价格或有望于4Q25上行至3万元/吨，主要考虑：需求 端，由于北美需求旺季将于10月开始，由于跨国农化企业库存已基本消纳至正常水平，4Q25草甘膦需 求有望维持在较高水平；供给端，考虑到工程建设进度，江山股份于贵州投建的5万吨/年草甘膦产能于 2025年内投产概率较低，4Q25新增供应较少，短期供需关系有望维持相对紧平衡。 中金主要观点如下： "反内卷"催化叠加供需格局好转，3月以来草甘膦价格持续反弹 2025年3月以来草甘膦价格稳步上行，且5月以来上行趋势加速，8月末价格较年内低点已上涨约24%至 2.73万元/吨。3月-4月的价格上行主因在3月13日草甘膦行业召开反内卷会议，叠加3月17日起2025年 CAC农化展开幕，草甘膦生产企业逐步进行限产协同，价格出现低位反弹。 受益于价格向好，草甘膦企业盈利近期也出现较为明显改善，截至8月29日，中国草甘膦价格2.73万元/ 吨，测算甘氨酸法价差修复至约1.36万元/吨，较3月约9000元/吨的价差出现明显提升，若 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since May, the price of glyphosate raw materials has been continuously rising, with market expectations for a slight increase in the future [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of August 24, the domestic price for glyphosate with 95% purity is quoted at 27,500 yuan/ton, and for 97% purity at 28,000 yuan/ton, representing an approximate 20% increase since early May [1] - Weekly production of glyphosate reached 8,600 tons as of August 24, an increase of 18.71% compared to the previous week [1] - Weekly inventory of glyphosate was 27,800 tons, showing a decrease of 700 tons from the previous week, indicating a tight supply situation despite increased production [1]

Group 1 - Glyphosate raw material prices have been rising since May, with prices for 95% purity reaching 27,500 yuan/ton and 97% purity at 28,000 yuan/ton, an increase of approximately 20% since early May [1] - As of August 24, glyphosate weekly production was 8,600 tons, up 18.71% from the previous week, while inventory decreased to 27,800 tons, indicating a tight supply situation [1] - Glyphosate accounts for about 30% of the global herbicide market, with China holding a significant production capacity of 810,000 tons per year, representing nearly 70% of the global total [1] Group 2 - The market for glyphosate is expected to maintain a tight balance in the medium to long term, with limited new production capacity due to regulatory restrictions in China [2] - The demand for glyphosate is anticipated to grow as the area of genetically modified crops increases and traditional herbicides face market exit due to toxicity issues [2] - Major companies in the glyphosate industry include Xingfa Group, Fuhua Chemical, and Jiangshan Chemical, with the top five companies holding a market share of 74% [2] Group 3 - Jiangshan Chemical has a production capacity of 70,000 tons/year for glyphosate and is one of the first companies to pass environmental inspections [3] - The increase in glyphosate prices is expected to positively impact company performance, with Xingfa Group estimating that a 1,000 yuan/ton price increase could add approximately 200 million yuan to annual profits [3] - Companies like Runfeng and Jiangshan have reported significant net profit growth, with Runfeng's net profit increasing by 205.62% year-on-year [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the basic chemical industry, particularly for refrigerants and glyphosate, which are experiencing high demand and price increases [1][5]. Core Insights - The glyphosate market is showing strong demand, with prices rising to 26,699 CNY/ton, an increase of 300 CNY/ton from the previous week, while the profit margin has also improved [3][17]. - Refrigerant prices, particularly for R134a and R32, have increased due to steady demand driven by high summer temperatures and supply constraints from quota policies [4][27]. - The polyester filament and viscose staple fiber markets are witnessing slight price rebounds as manufacturers reduce production to restore profitability [4][29]. Summary by Sections (1) Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Glyphosate prices have risen to 26,699 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 300 CNY/ton, while production has decreased by 16.24% to 0.7 million tons [3][17]. - Prices for polyester filament (POY, FDY, DTY) have increased slightly, with POY averaging 6,775 CNY/ton, up 125 CNY/ton [4][29]. (2) Polyurethane: MDI and TDI Price Trends - MDI prices have decreased due to weak demand from end-users, with the average price for polymer MDI in South China at 15,700 CNY/ton, down 1.88% [15]. - TDI prices have also dropped, with the average price in East China at 16,250 CNY/ton, down 2.99% [15]. (3) Agricultural Chemicals: Glyphosate Price Increase - Glyphosate prices continue to rise, supported by good downstream demand and tight supply, with a current price of 26,699 CNY/ton [17]. - The profit margin for glyphosate has increased to 3,725.1 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 317.9 CNY/ton from the previous week [17]. (4) Fluorochemicals: Refrigerant Price Increases - Prices for R134a and R32 have increased due to strong seasonal demand, with R134a at 51,000 CNY/ton and R32 at 57,500 CNY/ton [27]. - The supply of refrigerants is constrained by quota policies, leading to a tight market situation [27]. (5) Tire Industry: Raw Material Price Trends - Prices for natural rubber and synthetic rubber have shown slight increases, with natural rubber at 15,017 CNY/ton, up 1.24% [29]. - The prices of accelerators and anti-aging agents have also increased, indicating a positive trend in the tire industry [29].

Core Viewpoint - The glyphosate sector is experiencing unexpected price increases during the traditional off-season, driven by strong foreign trade orders and limited supply [1] Industry Summary - As of August 20, the glyphosate sector saw an overall increase of 0.91%, with notable performances from Jiangshan Co. and *ST Hanyue, which hit the daily limit, and Xin'an Chemical and Xingfa Group, which rose by 7.26% and 5.98% respectively [1] - Analyst Yang Lin from Southwest Securities noted that July is typically a demand off-season for glyphosate in China, yet prices have shown resilience, indicating a second wave of price increases [1] - The current supply situation is tight due to a high volume of pre-sold orders and maintenance plans from some manufacturers, leading to reduced supply capacity [1] - The overall supply capability in the industry remains constrained, with expectations for continued tightness in the short term, suggesting a bullish outlook for glyphosate prices [1] Company Summary - Companies to watch in the glyphosate sector include Yangnong Chemical, Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, Xin'an Chemical, and Guangxin Co., as they are expected to benefit from the rising prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Since mid-May, the price of glyphosate has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase attributed to low market inventory, production rumors from Monsanto, and the onset of the export season [1][3] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of July 16, glyphosate raw material prices reached approximately 26,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.97% from mid-May's low of 23,400 yuan/ton and a 4.80% rise compared to the same period last year [1] - The industry gross profit margin has turned positive, reaching 2.54%, with a gross profit of 666 yuan/ton [1][5] - The price of glyphosate is expected to fluctuate between 24,500 and 26,500 yuan/ton in 2024, which is 20%-25% lower than the average price of 32,700 yuan/ton in 2023 [5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Glyphosate accounts for approximately 30% of the global herbicide market, with an estimated global production capacity of 1.183 million tons in 2024 [2] - The supply-demand balance is shifting, with increased orders from export markets, particularly in South America, and a tightening of market circulation due to production adjustments [3][6] - The export volume of glyphosate from China is projected to increase, with significant demand from Brazil and the U.S. expected to drive prices higher during the peak export season [3][6] Group 3: Industry Outlook and Profitability - The glyphosate industry is beginning to see profitability after a period of losses, with companies like Xingfa Group indicating that price increases could significantly enhance profits [4][5] - The market anticipates further price increases due to tight supply conditions and rising demand, particularly as planting areas expand and alternative herbicides exit the market [6]