投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2025/11/25 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 |数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 | 指标 | | 11月24日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 79 | | 1600 | ----- 18/19 ----- 22/23 | | ===== 19/20 ----- 23/24 | == - 24/25 | | == - 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 天津 日照 张家港 | 49 -11 | | 1200 800 400 | | | | | | | | | | -11 | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 400 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 | | | 04/24 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 10/27 11/27 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the domestic soybean meal market is expected to be oscillatingly stronger, but the rebound height of the futures price is limited by the current loose supply of nearby soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the policy changes between China and the US, adjustments in the US Department of Agriculture reports, and changes in South American weather [9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents a. Basis and Spread Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract), on November 3rd, the basis in Dalian was 74 with a rise of 15; in Tianjin, it was 54 with a rise of 25; in other regions like Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, etc., specific basis and changes are also provided. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 67 with a decline of 11. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 483 with a rise of 13, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 535 with a decline of 98 [6][7]. b. Supply Situation - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/2026 season at 6.9%. The expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may be lowered, while the export forecast has room for an upward adjustment, and the supply - demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight. As of October 25th, according to CONAB data, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week, 37.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42.5%. The far - month soybean purchase and shipping progress is slow [7][8]. c. Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory, and the reduction in production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current farming profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [9]. d. Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs for the same period, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Anticipate the gradual recovery of domestic soybean meal inventory, alleviation of spot tightness, pressure on basis, and expect the futures market to fluctuate weakly, but limited decline due to import cost support. Suggest waiting for low - level long - position opportunities [5] 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Price and Basis Data - On April 25th, 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 6901, down 72; in Tianjin was 1019, down 222; in Rizhao was 628, down 112; in Zhangjiagang was 618, down 82; in Dongguan was 819, down 62; in Meijiang was 869, down 12; in Fangcheng was 819, up 128. Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 224, up 41 [3] 3.2 Spread Data - Spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal (Guangdong) was 1390, down 90; futures spread (main contract) was 347, up 13 [4] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.2342, and the futures crushing profit was 155 yuan/ton, up 5. Domestic soybean inventories reached a high level, soybean meal inventories were at a very low level and expected to gradually recover, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased to a low level [4][5] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: Spot supply is tight, customs clearance time in some areas is extended; a large amount of Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in May and June; new - crop US soybean planting area is expected to shrink; recent rainfall in US soybean - growing areas may improve soil moisture but delay sowing. Demand side: Pig supply is expected to increase steadily before September; meat poultry production is expected to remain high in the first half of the year, and egg - laying poultry inventory is expected to remain high; the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased significantly; wheat substitutes for corn in some areas, reducing protein consumption, and downstream transactions and pick - up are poor [4][5]