1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profit is poor, and the internal valuation is low. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise. The market is expected to follow up on long orders to repair the crush spread, showing a volatile and upward trend. However, the current loose supply of domestic near - term soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height of the market. Attention should be paid to the driving evolution brought by subsequent Sino - US policies, adjustments in US Department of Agriculture reports, and South American weather changes [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang on October 31 was - 1, with a change of 23; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang (against the main contract) was - 1, with a change of 23. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 78, with a change of 5. The M1 - 5 spread was 208, with a change of 13 [6] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, with a change of 46; the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, with a change of 40; the main contract's disk spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 470, with a change of 22 [7] 3.2 Supply Situation - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%. The expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may have room for downward adjustment, and the export expectation has room for upward adjustment. The supply - demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight [7] - As of October 25, according to CONAB data, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week and 37.7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 42.5%. The southern part of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil is expected to be relatively dry, and attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern [7] - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose, and the far - month shipping schedule is slow [8] 3.3 Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the far - month supply [8] - Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [8] 3.4 Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8] 3.5 Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the disk crush profit (yuan/ton), and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 are also presented in the report, with the Brazilian disk crush profit at - 248.00 yuan/ton and the premium change of - 15 cents per bushel [7] - Data on domestic port soybean inventory, major oil mill soybean inventory, major oil mill soybean meal inventory, major oil mill soybean crushing volume, and major oil mill operating rate over the years are also provided [7]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with soybean meal futures experiencing a strong upward trend despite high supply and inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Soybean meal futures opened at 2887.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 2942.00 CNY/ton, with a closing increase of 2.30% [1]. - The market is characterized by a strong performance, with soybean meal showing a fluctuating upward trend [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - High supply and inventory levels are suppressing soybean meal prices, but low prices for soybean oil and meal are leading to increased support from oil mills [1]. - Domestic soybean procurement by oil mills is slow, providing a firm cost support for soybean meal, limiting downward price movement [1]. Group 3: External Influences - The Trump administration's plan to provide billions in aid to farmers is noted, alongside Brazil's soybean exports increasing to 7.34 million tons in October, up over 1 million tons year-on-year [1]. - The market is cautious due to the lack of significant external information, focusing instead on the high inventory levels of soybean meal [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, with a reference pressure level for soybean meal at 3000-3100 CNY/ton [1]. - Future attention will be on the U.S. resuming report publications, adjustments in production estimates, and outcomes of U.S.-China trade negotiations [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Data Daily [4] - Research Institution: ITG Guomao Futures [3] - Research Center: Agricultural Products Research Center [5] - Analyst: Huang Xianglan [5] - Date: September 25, 2025 [5] Report Core View - The supply of soybeans in the US may decrease due to lower excellent and good rates and less rainfall in the producing areas, while the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be loose, and the supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented. The demand for soybean meal is supported by high livestock and poultry inventories in the short term, but the policy may affect the long - term supply of pigs. The inventory of domestic soybeans and oil - mill soybean meal is increasing, and the inventory days of feed enterprises are rising. The short - term trend of M01 is expected to be volatile [7][8]. Summary by Directory Basis and Spread Data - On September 24, the basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dalian was 90, down 2; in Tianjin it was 50, down 22; in Rizhao it was 0, down 2; in Zhangjiagang it was - 30, down 22; in Dongguan it was - 30, down 2; in Fangcheng it was - 10, up 18. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 152, down 47. The M1 - 5 spread was 181, down 14 [6]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 76, down 43. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 350, and the price difference on the main contract was 535, up 54 [7]. Premium and Discount, Crushing Profit and Inventory Data - The premium and discount of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 shows different trends in different months. The dollar - to - RMB exchange rate and the crushing profit per ton are also presented. The inventory of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills in China shows an upward trend in recent years, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is rising but lower than last year. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The excellent and good rate of US soybeans has dropped to 61%, and it may continue to decline. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the supply of soybean meal in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be loose, but the purchase progress for November is slow. The supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented [7][8]. - **Demand**: The short - term high inventory of livestock and poultry breeding supports the feed demand. The policy may affect the long - term supply of pigs. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the downstream spot trading volume has improved this week [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is rising but lower than last year, and it is expected to be in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [8]. Market Outlook - The spread between the GNP premiums and discounts of Argentine and Brazilian soybeans is as high as 100 cents, and the price of Brazilian soybeans is relatively firm. The short - term trend of M01 is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the change of premiums and discounts [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The analysis agency's average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [1]. - HedgePoint predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 178 million tons, and the export volume will be 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC has lowered its export volume estimates for Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal in September [1]. - Due to increased production and weak demand, Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported the sale of 101,400 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to Guatemala for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - The average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, with a forecast range of 295 - 360 million bushels, and the USDA's previous estimate for the 2024/25 season was 330 million bushels [1]. - A survey shows that U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending September 18th are expected to increase by 60 - 160 million tons, soybean meal by 15 - 45 million tons, and soybean oil from a net decrease of 1 million tons to a net increase of 3 million tons [1]. - HedgePoint predicts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 178 million tons and export volume at 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC lowered its September soybean export volume estimate from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons and soybean meal from 2.19 million tons to 2.1 million tons [1]. - GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons, production increased by 6% month - on - month to 5.11 million tons, and exports decreased by 1.92% month - on - month to 3.54 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 18th to 24th, 2025 [2]. Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis No specific information provided [3]. Oil and Oilseed Futures Price Spreads No specific information provided [5].

Report Summary of Agricultural Products (Soybean and Meal) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The domestic soybean purchase margin has worsened. Due to the comprehensive import cost support from the US market and premiums, the downside space of the futures market is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate within a range. The focus in the later stage should be on Sino - US policy changes [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - **Spot and Futures Basis**: On September 19th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 26 with a decrease of 1, in Tianjin it was 26 with an increase of 19, in Rizhao it was - 54 with a decrease of 21. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was - 64 with a decrease of 21, in Dongguan it was - 64 with a decrease of 11, in Zhanjiang it was - 24, and in Fangcheng it was - 64 with a decrease of 21. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 136 with a decrease of 19 [6] - **Spread**: The M1 - M5 spread was 228, the M1 - RM1 spread, the RM1 - 5 spread, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 360 with an increase of 10, and the futures spread of the main contract was 492 with a decrease of 31 [6][7] 3.2 Supply Situation - **International**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 63%. Recently, there has been less rainfall in the production areas, and the good - to - excellent rate may continue to decline. There may be room for a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit area in the future [7] - **Domestic**: In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to start to decline, but the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. Currently, the progress of soybean purchases for November is slow, and the supply of soybeans in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, but the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8] 3.3 Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry**: The expected high inventory of pig and poultry farming will support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the long - term supply of pigs. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. This week, the spot trading volume of the downstream soybean meal has increased [8] 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Soybean**: Domestic soybean stocks have increased to a high level [8] - **Soybean Meal**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased but is lower than the same period last year and is expected to be in a short - term inventory accumulation cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] 3.5 Market Outlook - The futures market of soybean meal will mainly fluctuate within a range, and the focus in the later stage should be on Sino - US policy changes [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: There is no new fundamental driver, waiting for a pullback [1] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has been suspended, undergoing a pullback and consolidation [1] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,344 yuan/ton (down 0.87% during the day, up 0.11% at night), soybean oil主力 at 8,442 yuan/ton (down 0.26% during the day, down 1.07% at night), and other futures prices also showed different changes [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures all decreased [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged, soybean oil increased by 10 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 126 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 318 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was -104 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different futures contracts of various oils showed different changes [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **USDA Drought Monitoring Report**: As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 9% the previous week and the same as last year [3] - **USDA Monthly Crushing Forecast**: The estimated soybean crushing volume in the US in July is expected to increase to 621.8 million short tons (2072 million bushels), a 5.1% increase from June and a 7.2% increase from July 2024. The estimated soybean oil inventory at the end of July is 1903 million pounds, a 0.5% increase from the end of June and a 5.2% decrease from July 2024 [4][6] - **Deral**: The rural economic department of Brazil's Paraná state expects the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1% to about 5.8 million hectares, and the output may increase by 4% to about 22 million tons [6] - **South Mato Grosso, Brazil**: The sowing of the 2025/26 soybean crop will start on September 16 and may last until December 31 [6] - **SAGyP**: As of the week ending August 20, Argentine farmers sold 394,200 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 118,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 29.8956 million tons and 789,600 tons respectively [7] - **Canada Statistics**: The estimated rapeseed output in Canada in 2025 will increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, with different changes in yield per acre and harvested area in different provinces [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that soybean meal may experience a rebound and oscillation, and the same goes for soybeans [1]. - The trend strength of soybean meal and soybeans is +1, indicating a relatively positive short - term trend for the main contract futures prices on the reporting day [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4141 yuan/ton during the day session, down 3 yuan (-0.07%), and 4146 yuan/ton during the night session, down 1 yuan (-0.02%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2961 yuan/ton during the day session, up 23 yuan (+0.78%), and 2965 yuan/ton during the night session, up 7 yuan (+0.24%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1027.5 cents/bushel, up 2.25 cents (+0.22%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 289.5 dollars/short ton, up 1.3 dollars (+0.45%) [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal is 2900 yuan/ton, with various basis levels for different contracts and time periods; in East China, it is 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton; in South China, it is 2860 - 2900 yuan/ton, and the basis levels also vary [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 8.17 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 25.8 million tons per day two trading days ago. The inventory was 47.12 million tons per week two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On June 30, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed, with a near - weak and far - strong trend, and the benchmark contract closed slightly higher. The USDA's latest report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the US in 2025 is 83.38 million acres, lower than the March forecast and analysts' average prediction, and 4.2% less than the previous year. The quarterly inventory report indicates that as of June 1, the total US soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than market expectations and 3.9% more than the same period last year. The soybean crop's good - to - excellent rate as of June 29 was 66%, the same as a week ago, slightly lower than the same period last year and market expectations [3].

Core Insights - The USDA quarterly inventory report indicates that as of June 1, 2025, the total old crop soybean inventory in the United States is 1.008 billion bushels, exceeding market expectations of 980 million bushels and up from 970 million bushels in the same period last year [1] Summary by Category - **Inventory Levels** - Total old crop soybean inventory stands at 1.008 billion bushels [1] - Market expectations were set at 980 million bushels [1] - Last year's inventory for the same date was 970 million bushels [1]

Group 1 - The USDA projects U.S. soybean quarterly stocks at 1.008 billion bushels, compared to analyst expectations of 0.97426 billion bushels and a previous value of 1.01 billion bushels [1] - The expected soybean planting area is 83.38 million acres, while analysts anticipated 83.523 million acres and the previous figure was 86.10 million acres [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - This week, soybean meal fluctuated. The US and the UK reached a tariff agreement, and the UK will increase imports of US agricultural products, which may have a leading effect and benefit US soybean exports. China and the US have started contact and talks, but it may be difficult to reach a consensus in the short term, with limited impact. Last week, the net sales of US soybean exports were 387,000 tons, in line with expectations, supporting the upward fluctuation of US soybeans. However, the USDA drought report showed that as of May 6, the drought - affected area of US soybeans remained stable at 15%, which was relatively low overall. Argentina raised its soybean production forecast for this year by 1.4 million tons to 50 million tons, which was negative for US soybeans. In China, as the customs clearance of imported soybeans resumes, the operating rate of oil mills has gradually increased, and the spot supply of soybean meal has changed from tight to loose, with the spot basis dropping significantly. Currently, the soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills are low, but they are about to enter the inventory - building cycle. The long - and short - term factors are intertwined, and US soybeans fluctuate. The supply of domestic soybean meal has changed from tight to loose, and the soybean supply is sufficient from May to July. The resumption of normal operation of oil mills suppresses the near - month continuous soybean meal to fluctuate weakly. However, there is a replenishment demand from downstream after the festival, which supports the short - term stability of soybean meal spot. In the long - term, the reduction of the US soybean planting area is basically certain, and the background of production reduction supports the bullish sentiment for the far - month soybean meal. At the same time, the development of China - US tariffs is positive for long - term US soybeans. It is still recommended to go long on the far - month soybean meal at low levels. The strategy is to go long on soybean meal 09 at a low level in the range of 2900 - 3000 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - The CBOT soybean closed at 1052.25 cents per bushel this week, down 6.00 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.57%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 2899 yuan per ton, down 21 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.72% [8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - **Weather and Sowing**: In the US soybean - producing areas, the rainfall is average and the temperature is gradually decreasing. As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than the market expectation of 31%, higher than 18% of the previous week, 24% of the same period last year, and the five - year average of 23% [12][21] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of May 1, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 377,000 tons, down from 428,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales for the 2025/2026 season were 10,000 tons, down from 50,000 tons in the previous week [12][24] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of May 3, the harvesting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 97.7%, up from 94.8% last week, higher than 94.3% of the same period last year and the five - year average of 96.3%. The estimated export volume in May is 12.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 870,000 tons. As Brazilian soybeans are exported in large quantities, the near - month premium of Brazilian soybeans has declined again [12][27][34] - **Argentine Soybeans**: As of May 2, the Argentine soybean harvesting rate was 23%, up from 14% last week, lower than 36.2% of the same period last year [12][30] 3.2.2 Supply - In the 18th week (April 26 - May 2), a total of 25 ships of soybeans, about 1.625 million tons, arrived at domestic full - sample oil mills [12][38] 3.2.3 Demand - In the 19th week (May 3 - May 9), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%, 103,000 tons higher than the forecast. The trading volume of soybean meal was 1.0584 million tons, and the pick - up volume was 603,900 tons [12][38][42] 3.2.4 Inventory - In the 18th week of 2025, the soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts of major domestic oil mills all increased. The soybean inventory was 4.7464 million tons, an increase of 151,600 tons from last week, a year - on - year increase of 556,300 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 82,100 tons, an increase of 7300 tons from last week, a year - on - year decrease of 443,000 tons [12][45] 3.3 Spread Tracking - No specific content provided for spread tracking other than listing the types such as the 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread [51]