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豆粕:报告落地、美豆微涨,连粕或反弹震荡,豆一:或反弹震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 03:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that soybean meal may experience a rebound and oscillation, and the same goes for soybeans [1]. - The trend strength of soybean meal and soybeans is +1, indicating a relatively positive short - term trend for the main contract futures prices on the reporting day [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4141 yuan/ton during the day session, down 3 yuan (-0.07%), and 4146 yuan/ton during the night session, down 1 yuan (-0.02%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2961 yuan/ton during the day session, up 23 yuan (+0.78%), and 2965 yuan/ton during the night session, up 7 yuan (+0.24%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1027.5 cents/bushel, up 2.25 cents (+0.22%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 289.5 dollars/short ton, up 1.3 dollars (+0.45%) [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal is 2900 yuan/ton, with various basis levels for different contracts and time periods; in East China, it is 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton; in South China, it is 2860 - 2900 yuan/ton, and the basis levels also vary [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 8.17 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 25.8 million tons per day two trading days ago. The inventory was 47.12 million tons per week two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On June 30, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed, with a near - weak and far - strong trend, and the benchmark contract closed slightly higher. The USDA's latest report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the US in 2025 is 83.38 million acres, lower than the March forecast and analysts' average prediction, and 4.2% less than the previous year. The quarterly inventory report indicates that as of June 1, the total US soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than market expectations and 3.9% more than the same period last year. The soybean crop's good - to - excellent rate as of June 29 was 66%, the same as a week ago, slightly lower than the same period last year and market expectations [3].
USDA季度库存报告:截至2025年6月1日,美国旧作大豆库存总量为10.08亿蒲式耳,市场预期为9.8亿蒲式耳,去年同期为9.7亿蒲式耳。
news flash· 2025-06-30 16:09
Core Insights - The USDA quarterly inventory report indicates that as of June 1, 2025, the total old crop soybean inventory in the United States is 1.008 billion bushels, exceeding market expectations of 980 million bushels and up from 970 million bushels in the same period last year [1] Summary by Category - **Inventory Levels** - Total old crop soybean inventory stands at 1.008 billion bushels [1] - Market expectations were set at 980 million bushels [1] - Last year's inventory for the same date was 970 million bushels [1]
美国农业部(USDA):预计美国季度大豆库存10.08亿蒲式耳,分析师预期9.7426亿蒲式耳,前值10.10亿蒲式耳。预计大豆种植面积8338.0万(英亩),分析师预期8352.3万,前值8610万。
news flash· 2025-06-30 16:08
预计大豆种植面积8338.0万(英亩),分析师预期8352.3万,前值8610万。 美国农业部(USDA):预计美国季度大豆库存10.08亿蒲式耳,分析师预期9.7426亿蒲式耳,前值10.10 亿蒲式耳。 ...
豆粕周报:关注关税进展,连粕高位回落-20250512
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 12:41
关注关税进展,连粕高位回落 豆粕周报 20250512 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1 目录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 主要观点 本周豆粕震荡运行。 成本端,美英达成关税协议,英国将加大美农产品进口,或将形成带头效应,利好美豆出口;中美也开始 接触会谈,不过短期或难以达成共识,影响有限。上周美豆出口净销售录得38.7万吨符合预期,支撑美豆震 荡走高;不过USDA干旱报告显示,截至5月6日美豆干旱面积稳定在15%,整体偏低;而阿根廷则上调本年 度大豆产量140万吨至5000万吨,对美豆形成利空。 国内,随着进口大豆通关恢复,油厂开机率逐步增加,豆粕现货供应由紧转松,现货基差大幅回落;当前 油厂大豆及豆粕库存偏低,但即将步入累库周期。 策略:多空交织,美豆震荡运行;国内豆粕供应由紧转松,且5-7月大豆供应充足,油厂开机恢复至正常水 平,压制近月连粕震荡偏弱,不过节后下游存在补库需求,支撑豆粕现货短期偏稳;中长期来看,美豆播 种面积下调基本确定,减产背景下支撑远月豆粕看多情绪;同时中美关税发展对远期美豆存在利多,仍建 议逢低做多远月豆粕。策略上,2900-3000区间低 ...
蛋白数据日报-20250428
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 09:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Anticipate the gradual recovery of domestic soybean meal inventory, alleviation of spot tightness, pressure on basis, and expect the futures market to fluctuate weakly, but limited decline due to import cost support. Suggest waiting for low - level long - position opportunities [5] 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Price and Basis Data - On April 25th, 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 6901, down 72; in Tianjin was 1019, down 222; in Rizhao was 628, down 112; in Zhangjiagang was 618, down 82; in Dongguan was 819, down 62; in Meijiang was 869, down 12; in Fangcheng was 819, up 128. Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 224, up 41 [3] 3.2 Spread Data - Spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal (Guangdong) was 1390, down 90; futures spread (main contract) was 347, up 13 [4] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.2342, and the futures crushing profit was 155 yuan/ton, up 5. Domestic soybean inventories reached a high level, soybean meal inventories were at a very low level and expected to gradually recover, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased to a low level [4][5] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: Spot supply is tight, customs clearance time in some areas is extended; a large amount of Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in May and June; new - crop US soybean planting area is expected to shrink; recent rainfall in US soybean - growing areas may improve soil moisture but delay sowing. Demand side: Pig supply is expected to increase steadily before September; meat poultry production is expected to remain high in the first half of the year, and egg - laying poultry inventory is expected to remain high; the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased significantly; wheat substitutes for corn in some areas, reducing protein consumption, and downstream transactions and pick - up are poor [4][5]