Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Overnight US soybeans closed slightly higher, and Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate; the spot market for soybeans is gradually entering the holiday mode, and the futures prices may fluctuate [1] - The soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) mostly closed higher, with the benchmark contract rising 0.2% for the third consecutive trading day, boosted by President Donald Trump's statement that China will increase soybean purchases [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4,378 yuan/ton during the day session, down 12 yuan (-0.27%), and 4,392 yuan/ton at night, up 14 yuan (+0.32%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2,735 yuan/ton during the day session, up 5 yuan (+0.18%), and 2,745 yuan/ton at night, up 7 yuan (+0.26%); CBOT soybeans 03 closed at 1,114.75 cents/bushel, up 2.5 cents (+0.22%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 303.4 dollars/short ton, up 0.2 dollars (+0.07%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal is 3,040 - 3,100 yuan/ton, with a change of -10 to +10 yuan compared to the previous day; in East China, it is 3,020 - 3,100 yuan/ton, with a change of flat to +20 yuan; in South China, it is 3,060 - 3,170 yuan/ton, with a change of flat to +30 yuan [1] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 5.9 million tons per day on the previous trading day, and the inventory was 89.95 million tons per week two trading days ago [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On February 6, CBOT soybean futures mostly closed higher, with the benchmark contract rising for the third consecutive day, driven by Trump's statement that China will increase soybean purchases to 20 million tons this year [3] - The US Department of Agriculture will release the January supply and demand report on February 10. Analysts predict that the US soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season will be 347 million bushels, 3 million bushels lower than the government's January forecast; the global soybean ending stocks are expected to be 125.3 million tons, higher than the government's January forecast of 124.41 million tons [3] - Brazilian government data shows that Brazil's soybean exports in January were 1.88 million tons, down 44.5% from December but up 75.5% from January last year [3] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that the good-to-excellent rate of Argentine soybean crops is 40%, down 9% from a week ago but still much higher than 20% in the same period last year [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In the week of January 26 - 30, 2026, US soybean futures prices fluctuated. The price increase was due to a weak US dollar and dry - hot weather in Argentina, while the decline was caused by the strong harvest pressure in Brazil, a mediocre US soybean export sales report, a rebound of the US dollar, and improved weather in Argentina. There was no report of large - scale US soybean export orders this week. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 30, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans fell 0.3% and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal fell 2.17% [1]. - In the same week, domestic soybean meal futures prices first rose and then fell, while soybean No.1 futures prices fluctuated and reached a new phased high. The price movement of soybean meal was affected by a slight increase in US soybeans (due to dry - hot weather in Argentina), a strong rebound in domestic rapeseed meal (due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade), and the sentiment of the domestic commodity market. The price movement of soybean No.1 was mainly affected by the domestic commodity market sentiment. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 30, the main m2605 contract of soybean meal rose 0.58%, and the main a2605 contract of soybean No.1 rose 0.41% [2]. - Next week (February 2 - 6, 2026), it is expected that the futures prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 will likely continue to move within a range. For soybean meal, the dry - hot weather in the Argentine production area has eased but there are still concerns, which is expected to support the soybean price. The expected harvest in Brazil will limit the price rebound space, and attention should be paid to the harvest progress. In addition, attention should also be paid to the US soybean export situation. For soybean No.1, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend. The northeast production area is expected to gradually enter the holiday mode, while the sales area still has pre - holiday stocking demand. The futures price should be monitored in terms of the overall commodity market sentiment and policy sentiment [7]. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean net sales decreased month - on - month, which is a negative factor. In the week of January 22, 2026, for 2025/26 US soybeans, the export shipment was about 1.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 89%. The cumulative export shipment was about 20.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 38%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 820,000 tons (compared to about 2.45 million tons the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 0 (compared to 900,000 tons the previous week). The total was about 820,000 tons (compared to about 2.46 million tons the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were about 230,000 tons (compared to 1.3 million tons the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 9.65 million tons [2]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased week - on - week, which is a positive factor. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for March 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - The Brazilian soybean harvest is faster than last year, and the yield is slightly increased, which is a negative factor. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 4.9%, compared to 2% the previous week and 3.9% the same period last year. The harvest in Mato Grosso is progressing smoothly, the harvest speed in Paraná has slightly increased, and the harvest work in other states is also advancing or has started. The estimated 2025/26 soybean yield in Brazil is 181 million tons, an increase of about 600,000 tons compared to the forecast on December 22 [2]. - The weather forecast for the main soybean - producing areas in South America shows that in the next two weeks (January 31 - February 13, 2026), precipitation in the main Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be uneven, with some areas having more precipitation, some less, and some being normal. In terms of temperature, most areas will be normal, but the temperature in Rio Grande do Sul will be higher. In the main Argentine soybean - producing areas, precipitation will be less (with an increase around February 6 but then a decrease), and the temperature will be high first and then low. Currently, the dry - hot weather in the Argentine production area has eased from February 7 - 9, but there are still concerns later. There are also concerns about dry - hot weather in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil, so the weather in the production areas still has some positive impacts. Attention should be paid to the persistence of adverse weather [4]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, mainly due to an increase in basis trading. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 310,000 tons, compared to about 190,000 tons the previous week [5]. - The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, affected by pre - holiday stocking. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 194,000 tons, compared to about 188,000 tons the previous week [5]. - The basis of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 349 yuan/ton, compared to about 347 yuan/ton the previous week and about 349 yuan/ton the same period last year [5]. - The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 820,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 111% [5]. - The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to increase next week. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.3 million tons (compared to 2.1 million tons the previous week and 210,000 tons the same period last year due to the Spring Festival holiday), and the operating rate was about 63% (compared to 58% the previous week and 6% the same period last year). Next week (January 31 - February 6, 2026), the soybean crushing volume in oil mills is expected to be about 2.37 million tons (compared to 470,000 tons the same period last year due to the Spring Festival holiday), and the operating rate will be 65% (compared to 13% the same period last year) [5]. Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Market - The price of soybean No.1 is stable with a slight upward trend. In the northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some areas is in the range of 4,300 - 4,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. In the inner - pass areas, the purchase price of clean soybeans is in the range of 4,980 - 5,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 - 160 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of northeast edible soybeans is in the range of 4,720 - 4,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [6]. - Farmers in the northeast production area are reluctant to sell, and the state - reserve purchase is gradually completed. The spot price in the northeast production area remains high and firm, with less remaining grain, and farmers are still reluctant to sell. The soybean auctions on various platforms have been well - traded. Some branches of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation have announced the completion of the direct purchase of soybeans from individual farmers in 2025 [6]. - The soybean market in the inner - pass areas has pre - holiday restocking demand. Traders in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan and other places have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing, mainly for rigid - demand restocking before the Spring Festival [6]. - The demand in the sales areas is still supported by the Spring Festival factor. Although the downstream market's acceptance of the rising price of northeast soybeans is average and the trading is slow, as the Spring Festival approaches, the market trading may improve [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean sales slow down, the price remains stable, and there is still a certain amount of surplus grain before the Spring Festival; the domestic imported soybeans decline, the port inventory drops, the auction is postponed; the oil - mill operating rate rebounds, the soybean meal inventory decreases, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean futures will fluctuate strongly, while soybean meal futures will remain volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The main soybean contract 2605 quickly soared to 4440 and then quickly fell back, hitting a new high in nearly a year. The spot price was relatively stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4400 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakened in a volatile manner, and the futures price was slightly at a discount. The main soybean meal contract 2605 fluctuated up and down. The spot price of soybean meal rose slightly and steadily, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 3060 yuan/ton to around 3070 yuan/ton. The basis weakened in a volatile manner, and the futures price was at a high discount [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - The sales of domestic soybeans slowed down. As of January 23, the remaining grain ratio of Heilongjiang soybeans remained at 40% month - on - month; that of Anhui soybeans dropped to 48%, a 2% month - on - month decrease; that of Henan soybeans dropped to 52%, a 3% month - on - month decrease; and that of Shandong soybeans dropped to 53%, a 3% month - on - month decrease. Due to the differentiation of grain quality, the expectation of tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans continued. Recently, the state - reserve soybean auction was suspended, and with the approaching of the Spring Festival, enterprise procurement slowed down [4]. Imported Soybean Situation - Imported soybeans continued to decline, and the port soybean inventory continued to drop. In December 2025, China imported 804300 tons of soybeans, a month - on - month decline and a 1.28% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imported soybeans in 2025 were 111818500 tons, a 6.46% year - on - year increase. There was no latest imported soybean auction announcement. The soybeans purchased from the US by China might enter the reserve rotation. The arrival of soybeans at oil mills stabilized, and the port soybean inventory continued to decline. As of January 23, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 174200 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease; the port soybean inventory was 721500 tons, a continuous month - on - month decline [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans fluctuated at a low level. The USDA January supply - demand report was bearish. The US soybean production was slightly increased, exports were slightly reduced, but the ending stocks were significantly increased. The Brazilian soybean production was increased, and the global ending stocks were increased. Attention should be paid to the increasing production pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [5]. Oil - mill and Soybean Meal Situation - The operating rate of oil mills rebounded again, and the soybean meal inventory continued to drop. As of January 23, the operating rate of oil mills was 57.83%, a month - on - month rebound; the soybean crushing volume was 2102100 tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6589900 tons, a month - on - month decline. The soybean meal output was 1661000 tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 898600 tons, a continuous month - on - month decline; the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4061600 tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 10.21 days, a continuous month - on - month increase [5]. Feed Demand Situation - The feed demand was strong. In terms of livestock farming, the pig price rebounded, and the breeding profit increased. As of January 23, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 115.84 yuan per head, an increase in profit; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.35 yuan per head, an increase in profit. The reduction of production capacity achieved certain results. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the inventory of breeding sows and live pigs in December both decreased. From the situation of large - scale farms, the inventory of breeding sows continued to decline month - on - month in December, the culling of old pigs increased; the birth and sales volume of piglets increased month - on - month, and the replenishment sentiment improved; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time in nearly a year. However, the profit might drag down the pace of future production capacity reduction. In terms of poultry farming, the egg price rebounded, and the breeding turned from loss to profit; the culling of old chickens increased, and the inventory in December decreased slightly month - on - month. The feed demand was still strong, and feed enterprises actively stocked up [6].

Report Overview - Date: January 20, 2026 [1] - Author: Chen Chunlei from Hongye Futures Financial Research Institute [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The main contract of soybean No. 1, 2605, is stabilizing around 4330, and the spot price is stable. The basis of soybean No. 1 is slightly strengthening, and the futures price is at a discount. The main contract of soybean meal, 2605, is continuously falling, and the spot price is slightly decreasing. The basis is strengthening, and the futures price is at a high discount [4]. - It is expected that soybean No. 1 will fluctuate strongly, and soybean meal will fluctuate weakly [6]. Key Points by Category Market Conditions of Soybean No. 1 and Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean No. 1, 2605, is oscillating and stabilizing around 4330, and the spot price in Fujin is around 4400 yuan/ton. The basis is oscillating and slightly strengthening, and the futures price is at a discount [4]. - The main contract of soybean meal, 2605, is continuously falling. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang has dropped from 3080 yuan/ton to around 3060 yuan/ton. The basis is oscillating and strengthening, and the futures price is at a high discount [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - There is a regional differentiation in domestic soybeans, and the remaining grain in Northeast China is accelerating to decline. As of January 16, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang has dropped to 40%, a 4% month - on - month decrease; in Anhui, it has dropped to 50%, a 1% month - on - month decrease; in Henan and Shandong, it remains unchanged at 55% and 56% respectively. Due to the differentiation in grain quality, the expectation of tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans continues, and the inventory of Northeast soybeans may approach 30% before the Spring Festival. Recently, the state - reserve soybean auctions have been suspended [4]. Imported Soybean Situation - The auctions of imported soybeans continue, and US soybeans may enter the reserves. On January 13, Cofco auctioned 1.14 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were sold. China continues to purchase US soybeans, and due to the high procurement cost, they may be used for reserve rotation later. The arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills has stabilized, and the port soybean inventory continues to decline. As of January 16, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.755 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase, and the port soybean inventory was 7.721 million tons, a continuous month - on - month decline [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans are gradually stabilizing. The USDA's January supply - demand report is bearish. The US soybean production is slightly increased, exports are slightly decreased, but the ending inventory is significantly increased. The production of Brazilian soybeans is increased, and the global ending inventory is increased. The negative impact of the report is gradually digested, and attention should be paid to the increasing production pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [5]. Oil Mill Situation - The operating rate of oil mills has rebounded again, and the soybean meal inventory continues to decline. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market has recently declined. As of January 16, the operating rate of oil mills was 54.86%, a month - on - month increase; the soybean crushing volume was 1.9942 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6.8733 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The soybean meal production was 1.575 million tons, a month - on - month increase; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 947,200 tons, a further month - on - month decline; the unsold soybean meal contracts were 4.9848 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.94 days, a month - on - month increase [5]. Feed Demand Situation - Feed demand is relatively strong. In the livestock breeding sector, the pig price has rebounded, and the breeding has turned profitable. As of January 16, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 48.35 yuan per head, turning profitable; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 7.39 yuan per head, also turning profitable. The data on the inventory of breeding sows in November has not been released yet. From the situation of large - scale farms, the breeding capacity is continuously being reduced, the inventory in December continued to decline month - on - month, the culling of old pigs increased; the birth and sales volume of piglets increased month - on - month, and the replenishment sentiment improved; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time in a year. However, the profitability may slow down the pace of capacity reduction in the later stage. In the poultry sector, the egg price has rebounded, the breeding loss has narrowed, the culling of old chickens has increased, and the inventory in December decreased slightly month - on - month. Feed demand remains strong, and feed enterprises are actively stocking up [6]. Market Outlook - The sales of domestic soybeans are differentiated, with tight inventory in the Northeast and firm prices. A large number of imported soybeans are being auctioned in China, and the purchased US soybeans may enter the reserves. The port inventory is declining, the operating rate of oil mills is increasing, the soybean meal inventory is decreasing, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean No. 1 will fluctuate strongly, and soybean meal will fluctuate weakly [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA January supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, higher than market expectations. It further reduced US soybean exports to 1.575 billion bushels and raised the global soybean ending inventory to 124.11 million tons, which is bearish. The US soybean quarterly stocks report also showed that the December quarterly inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, higher than expected and bearish. With no significant weather - driven speculation in South America in the short term, and Brazil starting harvest, the impact of January harvest selling pressure on Brazilian CNF premiums should be monitored. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly. The recent full - premium auction of imported soybeans reflects the market's expectation of a soybean shortage in March, but the large auction volume will supplement the domestic soybean supply in Q1 [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Basis Data - On January 13th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 379, up 19; the 43% soybean meal spot basis against the main contract in Rizhao was 399, up 29; in Tianjin was 439, up 29; in Dongguan was 359, up 9; in Zhanjiang was 419, up 29; in Fangcheng was 419, up 19; the rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 90; M3 - 2 was 356, up 29 [6]. 3.2 Inventory and Production - related Data - Data on China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills' soybean crushing volume, and national major oil mills' operating rate are presented in the form of historical trend charts from 2018 - 2025 [7][8]. 3.3 Spread and International Data - Spread data includes RM1 - 5, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong, and the futures spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the main contract. International data shows the 2025 Brazilian soybean CNF premium trend chart and the 2025 imported soybean futures gross margin [12].

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downturn, with soybean futures showing weak fluctuations, and the main contract reported at 3651.00 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 1.88% [1] - Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture forecasts the soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season to remain stable at 17.4 million hectares compared to the previous month [1] - In Brazil's Paraná state, soybean production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 21.96 million tons, unchanged from November's forecast, indicating a 4% increase from the previous year if realized [1] Group 2 - The USDA reported that as of November 27, net soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season were 1.106 million tons, down from 2.321 million tons the previous week, with net sales to China at 509,000 tons [1] - Brazil's national grain exporters association (ANEC) predicts soybean exports for December to reach 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 3.33 million tons [1] - New Century Futures anticipates a bearish trend for soybean futures due to concerns over slow U.S. soybean sales to China and high domestic inventories, suggesting a focus on South American weather and U.S.-China trade developments as uncertainties [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profit is poor, and the internal valuation is low. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise. The market is expected to follow up on long orders to repair the crush spread, showing a volatile and upward trend. However, the current loose supply of domestic near - term soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height of the market. Attention should be paid to the driving evolution brought by subsequent Sino - US policies, adjustments in US Department of Agriculture reports, and South American weather changes [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang on October 31 was - 1, with a change of 23; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang (against the main contract) was - 1, with a change of 23. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 78, with a change of 5. The M1 - 5 spread was 208, with a change of 13 [6] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, with a change of 46; the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, with a change of 40; the main contract's disk spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 470, with a change of 22 [7] 3.2 Supply Situation - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%. The expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may have room for downward adjustment, and the export expectation has room for upward adjustment. The supply - demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight [7] - As of October 25, according to CONAB data, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week and 37.7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 42.5%. The southern part of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil is expected to be relatively dry, and attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern [7] - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose, and the far - month shipping schedule is slow [8] 3.3 Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the far - month supply [8] - Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [8] 3.4 Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8] 3.5 Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the disk crush profit (yuan/ton), and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 are also presented in the report, with the Brazilian disk crush profit at - 248.00 yuan/ton and the premium change of - 15 cents per bushel [7] - Data on domestic port soybean inventory, major oil mill soybean inventory, major oil mill soybean meal inventory, major oil mill soybean crushing volume, and major oil mill operating rate over the years are also provided [7]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with soybean meal futures experiencing a strong upward trend despite high supply and inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Soybean meal futures opened at 2887.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 2942.00 CNY/ton, with a closing increase of 2.30% [1]. - The market is characterized by a strong performance, with soybean meal showing a fluctuating upward trend [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - High supply and inventory levels are suppressing soybean meal prices, but low prices for soybean oil and meal are leading to increased support from oil mills [1]. - Domestic soybean procurement by oil mills is slow, providing a firm cost support for soybean meal, limiting downward price movement [1]. Group 3: External Influences - The Trump administration's plan to provide billions in aid to farmers is noted, alongside Brazil's soybean exports increasing to 7.34 million tons in October, up over 1 million tons year-on-year [1]. - The market is cautious due to the lack of significant external information, focusing instead on the high inventory levels of soybean meal [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, with a reference pressure level for soybean meal at 3000-3100 CNY/ton [1]. - Future attention will be on the U.S. resuming report publications, adjustments in production estimates, and outcomes of U.S.-China trade negotiations [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Data Daily [4] - Research Institution: ITG Guomao Futures [3] - Research Center: Agricultural Products Research Center [5] - Analyst: Huang Xianglan [5] - Date: September 25, 2025 [5] Report Core View - The supply of soybeans in the US may decrease due to lower excellent and good rates and less rainfall in the producing areas, while the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be loose, and the supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented. The demand for soybean meal is supported by high livestock and poultry inventories in the short term, but the policy may affect the long - term supply of pigs. The inventory of domestic soybeans and oil - mill soybean meal is increasing, and the inventory days of feed enterprises are rising. The short - term trend of M01 is expected to be volatile [7][8]. Summary by Directory Basis and Spread Data - On September 24, the basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dalian was 90, down 2; in Tianjin it was 50, down 22; in Rizhao it was 0, down 2; in Zhangjiagang it was - 30, down 22; in Dongguan it was - 30, down 2; in Fangcheng it was - 10, up 18. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 152, down 47. The M1 - 5 spread was 181, down 14 [6]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 76, down 43. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 350, and the price difference on the main contract was 535, up 54 [7]. Premium and Discount, Crushing Profit and Inventory Data - The premium and discount of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 shows different trends in different months. The dollar - to - RMB exchange rate and the crushing profit per ton are also presented. The inventory of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills in China shows an upward trend in recent years, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is rising but lower than last year. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The excellent and good rate of US soybeans has dropped to 61%, and it may continue to decline. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the supply of soybean meal in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be loose, but the purchase progress for November is slow. The supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented [7][8]. - **Demand**: The short - term high inventory of livestock and poultry breeding supports the feed demand. The policy may affect the long - term supply of pigs. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the downstream spot trading volume has improved this week [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is rising but lower than last year, and it is expected to be in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [8]. Market Outlook - The spread between the GNP premiums and discounts of Argentine and Brazilian soybeans is as high as 100 cents, and the price of Brazilian soybeans is relatively firm. The short - term trend of M01 is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the change of premiums and discounts [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The analysis agency's average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [1]. - HedgePoint predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 178 million tons, and the export volume will be 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC has lowered its export volume estimates for Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal in September [1]. - Due to increased production and weak demand, Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported the sale of 101,400 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to Guatemala for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - The average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, with a forecast range of 295 - 360 million bushels, and the USDA's previous estimate for the 2024/25 season was 330 million bushels [1]. - A survey shows that U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending September 18th are expected to increase by 60 - 160 million tons, soybean meal by 15 - 45 million tons, and soybean oil from a net decrease of 1 million tons to a net increase of 3 million tons [1]. - HedgePoint predicts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 178 million tons and export volume at 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC lowered its September soybean export volume estimate from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons and soybean meal from 2.19 million tons to 2.1 million tons [1]. - GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons, production increased by 6% month - on - month to 5.11 million tons, and exports decreased by 1.92% month - on - month to 3.54 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 18th to 24th, 2025 [2]. Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis No specific information provided [3]. Oil and Oilseed Futures Price Spreads No specific information provided [5].