投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | 库但四季度国内豆粕供应预期仍宽松,目前11-1买船进度偏慢。明年一季度的豆粕供应仍需补充，补充来源暂不确定。需求方面，生推 | | --- | --- | | | 和禽类养殖短期预期维持高存栏。支撑饲用需求，但政策导向控生猪存栏和体重,预期影响远月生猪供应;豆粗性价比较高。提倡干 | | 41 | 高位;本周豆相下游现货成交有所改量。库存方面，国内大豆库存增至高位;油厂豆粕库存上升，但低于去年同期，预期短期仍处于累 | | 倩 | 库周期:饲料企业豆粕库存天数上升。 | | | 整体来说,目前阿根廷豆和巴西豆的GNP升贴水价差达到100美分，远高于正常年份,从昨晚贴水表现来看巴西价格较为坚挺,预期阿 | | | 根廷贴水继续大幅下跌冲击成本的空间有限。今日M01量能萎缩,暂时休隆,关注贴水变化,短期M01预期偏震荡, | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求推确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构 | | से | 成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意 ...

| 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/18 | 2910 | 2540 | 8500 | 9220 | 10210 | | 2025/09/19 | 2930 | 2600 | 8550 | 9240 | 10320 | | 2025/09/22 | 2940 | 2620 | 8580 | 9280 | 10370 | | 2025/09/23 | 2870 | 2530 | 8250 | 8980 | 10180 | | 2025/09/24 | 2880 | 2490 | 8330 | 9050 | 10120 | 蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油 脂 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/25 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 民间出口商报告向危地马拉出口销售101,400吨豆饼和豆粕 民间出口商报告向危地马拉出口101,400吨豆饼和豆粕，2025/2026市场年度付运。 分析机构对美国9月1日大豆库存的平均预估为3.23亿蒲式耳 分析机构对美国 ...

Report Summary of Agricultural Products (Soybean and Meal) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The domestic soybean purchase margin has worsened. Due to the comprehensive import cost support from the US market and premiums, the downside space of the futures market is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate within a range. The focus in the later stage should be on Sino - US policy changes [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - **Spot and Futures Basis**: On September 19th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 26 with a decrease of 1, in Tianjin it was 26 with an increase of 19, in Rizhao it was - 54 with a decrease of 21. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was - 64 with a decrease of 21, in Dongguan it was - 64 with a decrease of 11, in Zhanjiang it was - 24, and in Fangcheng it was - 64 with a decrease of 21. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 136 with a decrease of 19 [6] - **Spread**: The M1 - M5 spread was 228, the M1 - RM1 spread, the RM1 - 5 spread, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 360 with an increase of 10, and the futures spread of the main contract was 492 with a decrease of 31 [6][7] 3.2 Supply Situation - **International**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 63%. Recently, there has been less rainfall in the production areas, and the good - to - excellent rate may continue to decline. There may be room for a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit area in the future [7] - **Domestic**: In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to start to decline, but the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. Currently, the progress of soybean purchases for November is slow, and the supply of soybeans in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, but the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8] 3.3 Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry**: The expected high inventory of pig and poultry farming will support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the long - term supply of pigs. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. This week, the spot trading volume of the downstream soybean meal has increased [8] 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Soybean**: Domestic soybean stocks have increased to a high level [8] - **Soybean Meal**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased but is lower than the same period last year and is expected to be in a short - term inventory accumulation cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] 3.5 Market Outlook - The futures market of soybean meal will mainly fluctuate within a range, and the focus in the later stage should be on Sino - US policy changes [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: There is no new fundamental driver, waiting for a pullback [1] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has been suspended, undergoing a pullback and consolidation [1] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,344 yuan/ton (down 0.87% during the day, up 0.11% at night), soybean oil主力 at 8,442 yuan/ton (down 0.26% during the day, down 1.07% at night), and other futures prices also showed different changes [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures all decreased [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged, soybean oil increased by 10 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 126 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 318 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was -104 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different futures contracts of various oils showed different changes [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **USDA Drought Monitoring Report**: As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 9% the previous week and the same as last year [3] - **USDA Monthly Crushing Forecast**: The estimated soybean crushing volume in the US in July is expected to increase to 621.8 million short tons (2072 million bushels), a 5.1% increase from June and a 7.2% increase from July 2024. The estimated soybean oil inventory at the end of July is 1903 million pounds, a 0.5% increase from the end of June and a 5.2% decrease from July 2024 [4][6] - **Deral**: The rural economic department of Brazil's Paraná state expects the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1% to about 5.8 million hectares, and the output may increase by 4% to about 22 million tons [6] - **South Mato Grosso, Brazil**: The sowing of the 2025/26 soybean crop will start on September 16 and may last until December 31 [6] - **SAGyP**: As of the week ending August 20, Argentine farmers sold 394,200 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 118,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 29.8956 million tons and 789,600 tons respectively [7] - **Canada Statistics**: The estimated rapeseed output in Canada in 2025 will increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, with different changes in yield per acre and harvested area in different provinces [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that soybean meal may experience a rebound and oscillation, and the same goes for soybeans [1]. - The trend strength of soybean meal and soybeans is +1, indicating a relatively positive short - term trend for the main contract futures prices on the reporting day [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4141 yuan/ton during the day session, down 3 yuan (-0.07%), and 4146 yuan/ton during the night session, down 1 yuan (-0.02%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2961 yuan/ton during the day session, up 23 yuan (+0.78%), and 2965 yuan/ton during the night session, up 7 yuan (+0.24%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1027.5 cents/bushel, up 2.25 cents (+0.22%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 289.5 dollars/short ton, up 1.3 dollars (+0.45%) [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal is 2900 yuan/ton, with various basis levels for different contracts and time periods; in East China, it is 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton; in South China, it is 2860 - 2900 yuan/ton, and the basis levels also vary [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 8.17 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 25.8 million tons per day two trading days ago. The inventory was 47.12 million tons per week two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On June 30, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed, with a near - weak and far - strong trend, and the benchmark contract closed slightly higher. The USDA's latest report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the US in 2025 is 83.38 million acres, lower than the March forecast and analysts' average prediction, and 4.2% less than the previous year. The quarterly inventory report indicates that as of June 1, the total US soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than market expectations and 3.9% more than the same period last year. The soybean crop's good - to - excellent rate as of June 29 was 66%, the same as a week ago, slightly lower than the same period last year and market expectations [3].

Core Insights - The USDA quarterly inventory report indicates that as of June 1, 2025, the total old crop soybean inventory in the United States is 1.008 billion bushels, exceeding market expectations of 980 million bushels and up from 970 million bushels in the same period last year [1] Summary by Category - **Inventory Levels** - Total old crop soybean inventory stands at 1.008 billion bushels [1] - Market expectations were set at 980 million bushels [1] - Last year's inventory for the same date was 970 million bushels [1]

Group 1 - The USDA projects U.S. soybean quarterly stocks at 1.008 billion bushels, compared to analyst expectations of 0.97426 billion bushels and a previous value of 1.01 billion bushels [1] - The expected soybean planting area is 83.38 million acres, while analysts anticipated 83.523 million acres and the previous figure was 86.10 million acres [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - This week, soybean meal fluctuated. The US and the UK reached a tariff agreement, and the UK will increase imports of US agricultural products, which may have a leading effect and benefit US soybean exports. China and the US have started contact and talks, but it may be difficult to reach a consensus in the short term, with limited impact. Last week, the net sales of US soybean exports were 387,000 tons, in line with expectations, supporting the upward fluctuation of US soybeans. However, the USDA drought report showed that as of May 6, the drought - affected area of US soybeans remained stable at 15%, which was relatively low overall. Argentina raised its soybean production forecast for this year by 1.4 million tons to 50 million tons, which was negative for US soybeans. In China, as the customs clearance of imported soybeans resumes, the operating rate of oil mills has gradually increased, and the spot supply of soybean meal has changed from tight to loose, with the spot basis dropping significantly. Currently, the soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills are low, but they are about to enter the inventory - building cycle. The long - and short - term factors are intertwined, and US soybeans fluctuate. The supply of domestic soybean meal has changed from tight to loose, and the soybean supply is sufficient from May to July. The resumption of normal operation of oil mills suppresses the near - month continuous soybean meal to fluctuate weakly. However, there is a replenishment demand from downstream after the festival, which supports the short - term stability of soybean meal spot. In the long - term, the reduction of the US soybean planting area is basically certain, and the background of production reduction supports the bullish sentiment for the far - month soybean meal. At the same time, the development of China - US tariffs is positive for long - term US soybeans. It is still recommended to go long on the far - month soybean meal at low levels. The strategy is to go long on soybean meal 09 at a low level in the range of 2900 - 3000 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - The CBOT soybean closed at 1052.25 cents per bushel this week, down 6.00 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.57%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 2899 yuan per ton, down 21 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.72% [8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - **Weather and Sowing**: In the US soybean - producing areas, the rainfall is average and the temperature is gradually decreasing. As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than the market expectation of 31%, higher than 18% of the previous week, 24% of the same period last year, and the five - year average of 23% [12][21] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of May 1, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 377,000 tons, down from 428,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales for the 2025/2026 season were 10,000 tons, down from 50,000 tons in the previous week [12][24] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of May 3, the harvesting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 97.7%, up from 94.8% last week, higher than 94.3% of the same period last year and the five - year average of 96.3%. The estimated export volume in May is 12.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 870,000 tons. As Brazilian soybeans are exported in large quantities, the near - month premium of Brazilian soybeans has declined again [12][27][34] - **Argentine Soybeans**: As of May 2, the Argentine soybean harvesting rate was 23%, up from 14% last week, lower than 36.2% of the same period last year [12][30] 3.2.2 Supply - In the 18th week (April 26 - May 2), a total of 25 ships of soybeans, about 1.625 million tons, arrived at domestic full - sample oil mills [12][38] 3.2.3 Demand - In the 19th week (May 3 - May 9), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%, 103,000 tons higher than the forecast. The trading volume of soybean meal was 1.0584 million tons, and the pick - up volume was 603,900 tons [12][38][42] 3.2.4 Inventory - In the 18th week of 2025, the soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts of major domestic oil mills all increased. The soybean inventory was 4.7464 million tons, an increase of 151,600 tons from last week, a year - on - year increase of 556,300 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 82,100 tons, an increase of 7300 tons from last week, a year - on - year decrease of 443,000 tons [12][45] 3.3 Spread Tracking - No specific content provided for spread tracking other than listing the types such as the 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread [51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Anticipate the gradual recovery of domestic soybean meal inventory, alleviation of spot tightness, pressure on basis, and expect the futures market to fluctuate weakly, but limited decline due to import cost support. Suggest waiting for low - level long - position opportunities [5] 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Price and Basis Data - On April 25th, 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 6901, down 72; in Tianjin was 1019, down 222; in Rizhao was 628, down 112; in Zhangjiagang was 618, down 82; in Dongguan was 819, down 62; in Meijiang was 869, down 12; in Fangcheng was 819, up 128. Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 224, up 41 [3] 3.2 Spread Data - Spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal (Guangdong) was 1390, down 90; futures spread (main contract) was 347, up 13 [4] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.2342, and the futures crushing profit was 155 yuan/ton, up 5. Domestic soybean inventories reached a high level, soybean meal inventories were at a very low level and expected to gradually recover, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased to a low level [4][5] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: Spot supply is tight, customs clearance time in some areas is extended; a large amount of Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in May and June; new - crop US soybean planting area is expected to shrink; recent rainfall in US soybean - growing areas may improve soil moisture but delay sowing. Demand side: Pig supply is expected to increase steadily before September; meat poultry production is expected to remain high in the first half of the year, and egg - laying poultry inventory is expected to remain high; the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased significantly; wheat substitutes for corn in some areas, reducing protein consumption, and downstream transactions and pick - up are poor [4][5]