Core Viewpoint - The domestic rapeseed meal market is facing significant challenges due to a strong cold wave affecting major rapeseed production areas and breakthroughs in China-Canada trade negotiations [2][5] Weather Impact - The cold wave has led to a decline in rapeseed meal futures, with prices dropping 2.37% to below 2200 yuan/ton, highlighting market sensitivity to dual variables [2][9] - Analysts indicate that the current growth stage of rapeseed varies significantly by region, with most still in the seedling stage, and only a small portion in Chongqing and Sichuan entering the sensitive bolting stage [3][10] - Historical data shows that cold weather in February 2023 caused a 3%-5% decrease in rapeseed yield in Hubei and Anhui, but the overall yield remained high in 2024 due to improved management [2][3] Trade Policy Changes - China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed to approximately 15% starting March 1, with anti-discrimination tariffs on rapeseed meal suspended until the end of the year, significantly lowering import costs [5][12] - The previous import tariffs were as high as 75.8%, and this adjustment is expected to improve the profitability of rapeseed imports, aiding in supply recovery [5][12] Market Dynamics - Current domestic rapeseed meal and oil inventories are at lower levels compared to previous years, influenced by prior import stagnation and weak demand during the aquatic feed consumption off-season [5][12] - The cold wave's impact on total production is expected to be limited, but it may increase field maintenance costs, potentially raising the breakeven price for domestic rapeseed [13] Future Outlook - If the cold wave does not lead to significant production reductions, rapeseed meal prices may lack support for a rebound, maintaining a weak market in the short term [6][13] - Analysts suggest monitoring the recovery of temperatures and precipitation patterns post-cold wave, as a decline in quality supply could lead to structural market changes [6][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - During the week of 20250901 - 0905, rapeseed meal prices showed a volatile upward trend. ICE canola futures hit a five - month low due to abundant harvest expectations and demand concerns. The market is focused on the new - season canola production forecast and export prospects in the producing areas. Rapeseed meal spot quotes rose slightly, and traders still had a price - holding mentality. However, the supply of rapeseed meal is loose, and it is expected to continue the volatile trend. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The rapeseed meal futures price showed a volatile trend during the week. As of Friday, the main contract rapeseed meal 2601 (rm2601) closed at 2550 points, with a maximum of 2556 points and a minimum of 2488 points. The position was 396,574 lots, a decrease of 17,596 lots from last week, and the trading volume was 1.6495 million lots, a decrease of 225,100 lots from last week. [3] - **Variety Market**: In the weekly rapeseed meal futures market, each contract had different price changes. The total position of the variety was 646,488 lots, and the trading volume was 2,030,963 lots. [5] - **Related Market**: Rapeseed meal options had a trading volume of 253,751 lots and a total position of 135,979 lots during the week, with an increase of 6,254 lots in the position. The total number of exercises during the week was 0 lots. [7] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: During the week, the rapeseed meal spot price showed an overall upward trend. The expected reduction in supply and the seasonal growth in demand were the main factors driving the price increase. The futures market's upward expectation also had a positive impact on the spot price. The rapeseed meal benchmark price was 2601.67 yuan/ton on September 1 and 2638.33 yuan/ton on September 5. [9] - **Basis Data**: The rapeseed meal basis showed a strengthening trend during the week, mainly affected by the strong demand in the spot market, the expected tight supply, and the upward trend in the futures market. The basis price of the rapeseed meal rm2601 contract fluctuated between 88.33 yuan/ton and 123.33 yuan/ton. [10] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, as of Friday, the total rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 6761, with a cumulative increase of 351 during the week. [11] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: The policy of the Ministry of Commerce imposing high tariffs on Canadian canola has had a profound impact on the rapeseed meal market. This policy not only restricts the import of Canadian canola but also leads to a shortage of domestic canola supply, thereby driving up the rapeseed meal price. In early September, the overall domestic rapeseed meal supply was in a loose state but there was an expectation of tightening in the long - term. On the one hand, the crushing rhythm of coastal oil mills slowed down, and the supply of canola raw materials decreased relatively. On the other hand, although the rapeseed meal inventory has recovered, the overall inventory level is still at a low level. In September, aquaculture is in the peak season, and rapeseed meal, as an important component of aquaculture feed, has a seasonal increase in demand, which supports the rapeseed meal price to a certain extent and promotes its increase. [12] - **Technical Analysis**: During the week, the rapeseed meal rm2601 contract showed an overall volatile upward trend. The K - line pattern closed with 4 positive days during the week, indicating strong long - side power in the market. The price successively broke through the 5 - day, 10 - day, and 20 - day moving averages. As of Friday, the closing price stood above the 20 - day moving average, and the short - term moving average system was in a long - side arrangement. Attention should be paid to the pressure formed by the previous price high. [13][14] 3.4 Market Outlook - Overall, the price of the rapeseed meal futures rm2601 contract showed an upward trend during the week. The K - line pattern and technical indicators both showed that the market was in a long - side trend. In the short term, market sentiment is optimistic, and capital is flowing in. The future price is expected to show a volatile and strengthening trend. Attention should be paid to the possible callback risk in the market and the impact of external factors such as the US soybean market and the domestic oil mill crushing volume on the rapeseed meal futures price. [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the short term [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2480 and 2540. The market is affected by the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, with short - term demand in the peak season and low inventory supporting the price. After the National Day, demand may enter the off - season, and there are uncertainties in China - Canada trade. The short - term trend is volatile and slightly stronger [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side has a good expectation. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% is imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has an offsetting effect on rapeseed production, and global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the addition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed, and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed. The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2560, and the basis is 59, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. The rapeseed meal futures have risen and then fallen, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium has narrowed. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has been weakly volatile [9][18][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 21,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.65% from last week's 25,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 25% compared with 28,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish. The inventory of imported rapeseed at oil mills has fallen to a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory has slightly decreased. The import volume of imported rapeseed in August was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly. The amount of rapeseed crushed by oil mills has increased slightly [9][23][25]. - **Aquaculture Data**: Aquaculture fish prices have fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable. China's aquatic product and fish production, shellfish and shrimp - crab production, and OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports are also provided in the report [35]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, which is bearish [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2480 and 2540. The short - term trend is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments [9].