10月份在淘汰产能增加而新增产能减少的影响下，在产蛋鸡存栏量呈现跌势。11月份新开产蛋鸡与待淘 汰蛋鸡数量均呈下降趋势，预计11月在产蛋鸡存栏量或小幅增加，波动幅度较有限，供应压力仍存，将 压制蛋价继续处于低位。 据卓创资讯监测数据显示，10月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量约为13.59亿只，环比减幅0.66%，同比增幅 5.59%，在产蛋鸡存栏量虽有所下降，但仍处高位，加之气温下降后产蛋率提升，鸡蛋供应压力不减。 反映在价格上，当月主产区鸡蛋月均价2.95元／斤，环比跌幅15.47%，同比跌幅35.16%。究其原因，10 月份存栏虽降，但供应仍较充足，叠加需求进入季节性淡季，月内蛋价跌势较为明显。 从养殖利润来看，10月份受到蛋价明显下跌影响，蛋鸡养殖再次进入亏损状态。监测显示，10月份单斤 鸡蛋利润为-0.17元，环比下降0.43元，受此影响养殖单位出栏老母鸡意向逐步提升。根据卓创资讯监测 数据显示，10月底老母鸡平均出栏日龄494天，较9月底提前6天，10月份全国老母鸡总出栏量约在8900 万只左右，环比增幅超13%，老母鸡出栏量处于较高水平。 另外，10月份新开产的蛋鸡多为6月份前后补栏的鸡苗，此阶段养殖环节盈利 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall egg supply is relatively high compared to previous years. High inventory, low costs, and weak demand have pushed egg prices to their lowest levels in recent years. The recent rebound in egg prices is mainly due to pre - holiday stocking, but as the stocking ends, egg prices are starting to decline. The enthusiasm for culling laying hens decreased as egg prices rebounded [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3366, down 52 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3432, down 38; JD09 remained unchanged at 3193 [3]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 66, down 14; the 05 - 09 spread was 239, down 38; the 09 - 01 spread was - 173, up 52 [3]. - **Price Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.11, down 0.02. Other ratios also showed minor changes [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in production areas was 3.67 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin; the average price in sales areas was 3.75 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. Prices in most regions were stable, with some fluctuations in a few areas [3]. - **Culled Hen Prices**: The average price of culled hens was 4.55 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day. Prices in most regions increased [3]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2358 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the average price of bean粕 was 3012 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.55 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin [3]. - **Profits**: The profit per laying hen was 30.93 yuan, down 1.04 yuan from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Inventory**: In August, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. It is estimated that the inventory from September to December 2025 will be 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In August, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 39.81 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 8% [7]. - **Culling Volume**: In the week of September 18, the culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 17.61 million, a decrease of 6% from the previous week. The average culling age was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [7]. - **Sales Volume**: In the week of September 18, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 7685 tons, an increase of 5.2% from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory Days**: As of September 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days [8]. - **Profits**: As of September 18, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.3 yuan/jin; the expected profit per laying hen was 2.97 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/hen from the previous week [8]. 3.5 Trading Logic The current high supply, low demand, and low egg prices have led to an initial increase in culling enthusiasm. However, as egg prices rebounded, the culling willingness decreased. The recent slowdown in market sales is due to the end of pre - holiday stocking [10]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: The short - term downward space may be limited, and it is recommended to choose the right opportunity [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].