证券研究报告 南方航空(600029.SH) 投资评级： 买入（首次） ——枢纽网络优势巩固，复苏弹性有望释放 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 交通运输 | 航空机场 非金融|首次覆盖报告 证券分析师 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 29 日 投资要点： 风险提示。人民币汇率波动，油价上涨，出行需求不及预期，地缘政治风险。 | | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8.28/5.35 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 159,929 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current cooling in the energy and chemical sector is a phase adjustment rather than a trend reversal, with the core theme being "supply clearance, anti-involution policies, and weak demand recovery" for structural repair [2][3]. Group 1: Causes of Current Cooling in the Energy and Chemical Sector - Since 2026, the energy and chemical sector has seen a broad rally, with pure benzene, styrene, and PTA rising over 10%. The recent profit-taking by funds has triggered a shift in the market, leading to a divergence within the sector [3]. - The cost side has been impacted by fluctuating crude oil prices and the diminishing effects of the North American cold wave, weakening the cost support for energy and chemical products [3]. - The traditional downstream sectors have reduced their load and finished restocking, leading to weaker spot transactions and diminishing price momentum [3]. Group 2: Trend Judgement - The chemical industry is undergoing a deep structural transformation, which is reflected in the futures market through the fluctuations of products like PTA, methanol, and PP. The industry is at the bottom of a four-year down cycle, with a rebound expected in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Supply-Side Support - The core support for futures products is focused on supply contraction, anti-involution actions, and supply-side reforms. Starting in Q2 2024, capital expenditures in the industry will enter a downward phase, with new capacity growth nearly stagnating by 2026 [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's regulatory framework aims to control capacity growth and enhance industry concentration, accelerating the exit of outdated capacity [5]. Group 4: Demand Characteristics - The demand side shows three characteristics: weak recovery, structural highlights, and short-term disturbances. The period from February to March will be crucial for verifying demand strength [6]. - Traditional demand sectors are recovering moderately, while new demand from sectors like renewable energy and semiconductors is driving robust demand for related futures products [6]. Group 5: Low Inventory and Restocking Dynamics - The synergy between low inventory and the restocking cycle will be a core driver for mid-term price increases in the energy and chemical futures market, particularly for aromatic products like styrene and PTA [7]. Group 6: Price and Valuation Resonance - The price cycle and valuation are resonating, providing liquidity and emotional support for the energy and chemical futures market. The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a narrowing decline, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for the chemical sector [8]. Group 7: Industry Cycle Bottom Confirmation - The industry cycle bottom has been established, with a rebound expected in 2026. The performance of sub-sectors will reflect significant differentiation in futures products [9][10]. Group 8: Specific Futures Product Performance - The first tier includes aromatic and downstream polyester products (PTA), benefiting from supply improvements and no new capacity, showing the greatest market elasticity [10]. - The second tier consists of methanol, PP, and PE futures, with relatively mild supply-demand contradictions, primarily exhibiting range-bound fluctuations [10]. - The third tier includes soda ash and caustic soda futures, which are in a loose supply-demand situation, showing low-level wide fluctuations [10]. Group 9: Conclusion - The evolution of supply and demand in the chemical industry is moving from "severe oversupply" to "tight balance," with anti-involution actions and supply-side reforms laying a solid foundation for long-term healthy development [11].