己内酰胺市场近况与展望 20251210 摘要 行业限产政策推动己内酰胺价格上涨，自 11 月 5 日以来吉林市场价格 上涨 1,400 元/吨至 9,450 元/吨，但下游 P6 产品未能持续跟涨，整体 行业进入博弈阶段，上游涨价导致终端需求疲软。 酰胺产业链呈现"头大尾小"结构，上游装置规模远大于下游，导致供 应错配。受终端需求不振和季节性因素影响，下游企业库存压力增加， 采购意愿降低，压制上游生产。 国内己内酰胺最大开工产能达 805 万吨，实际开工率在 70%-72%之间， 但国产装置超负荷能力强，实际产量可观。限产措施预计维持 3-6 个月， 旨在减少亏损，维持供应紧张局面。 酰胺行业利润受产业链长短和原材料成本影响，硫磺价格上涨显著增加 成本。大型装置基本实现盈亏平衡，小型装置仍在亏损；自产辅料企业 竞争力更强。 下游需求对市场影响显著，中美贸易摩擦和锦纶 6 价格波动导致下游对 替代涤纶持谨慎态度。PA6 切片库存增加，主要集中在半光和消光切片 环节。 Q&A 请介绍一下近期国内酰胺行业的开工率情况及其影响因素。 近期国内酰胺行业的开工率受多方面因素影响。首先，响应国务院发布的反内 卷政策，吉林 ...

Group 1 - The China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee held a special market analysis meeting on September 25, attended by representatives from key coking enterprises across various provinces [1] - The meeting focused on analyzing the supply-demand dynamics and price trends of the coke market in the current macroeconomic environment [1] - A decision was made to increase prices for different types of coke effective from September 26, with increases of 50 yuan/ton for wet quenching coke, 55 yuan/ton for dry quenching coke, 80 yuan/ton for top-loaded wet quenching coke, and 85 yuan/ton for top-loaded dry quenching coke [1] Group 2 - The industry recommends a production cut of over 30% across the coking sector, with measures such as reducing or halting shipments to customers who do not comply [1] - Coking enterprises are advised to adhere to the principle of "no production at a loss, no sales at a loss, and no credit sales" to maintain reasonable profit levels and a healthy development order within the industry [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On June 4, polysilicon showed a volatile and upward trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 35,055 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.44%, and the open interest decreased by 3,727 lots to 67,873 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium to the main contract narrowed to 1,445 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and upward trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 7,280 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.9%, and the open interest decreased by 19,865 lots to 180,300 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 8,777 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 425 yuan/ton [2]. - The reduction of hydropower prices in the southwest region during the wet season has led to the resumption of production, and large northwest factories will not cut production as in previous years. Downstream procurement has significantly decreased. It is expected that the lower support for industrial silicon comes from the cash cost line of large Xinjiang factories, and the upper pressure stems from high inventories and increased supply pressure. The polysilicon self - discipline meeting will be held again in June. In addition to spontaneous production cuts by enterprises, under the pressure of collapsing demand, the industry is expected to clarify an expansion of production limit quotas [2]. - In the short term, the market has slightly recovered with the macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, a strategy of shorting on rallies can be maintained under marginal pressure. For polysilicon, pay attention to production cut news and be vigilant against significant volatility risks [2]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 7,075 yuan/ton on June 3 to 7,175 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The prices of most 553 and 421 silicon products decreased, with the price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropping from 7,650 yuan/ton to 7,600 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed from 575 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 887 to 61,803, and the weekly inventories in various ports and factories also decreased [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 34,360 yuan/ton on June 3 to 35,055 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 695 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N - type polysilicon, dense material, and cauliflower material remained stable. The spot premium narrowed from 2,140 yuan/ton to 1,445 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 350 to 1,920, and the weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased from 90,000 tons to 141,000 tons, while the factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [3]. - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers remained stable, while the price of M10 single - crystal battery cells decreased by 0.01 yuan/watt [3]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, weekly industrial silicon industry inventories, inventory changes, DMC weekly inventories, and polysilicon weekly inventories [19][21][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [27][30][33].