交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。贸易商商谈为主，12月货在01贴水10~16附近商谈 成交，价格商谈区间在4995~5110。1月货在05贴水60~65成交。今日主流现货基差在01-13。中性 2、基差：现货5060，05合约基差-92，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.61天，环比减少0.15天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA装置变动较少，供需格局预期尚可，期货盘面则跟随成本端大幅上行 ...

Report Information - Report Title: PTA&MEG Morning Report - November 7, 2025 [1] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015557 [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PTA: Affected by the broader market and market rumors, PTA futures rose significantly. The spot market had a mediocre trading atmosphere with weak spot basis. It's expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short - term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - MEG: This week, there is a concentrated arrival of foreign - made ethylene glycol vessels. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a continuous expectation of supply surplus. It's expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will decline, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Affected by the broader market and rumors, futures rose, spot trading was mediocre, and the basis was weak. 11 - month goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with a price range of 4480 - 4605. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 80 [5]. - Basis: Spot price was 4540, 01 contract basis was - 148, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: Net short position with a reduction in short positions [5]. - Expectation: The spot market trading atmosphere is dull, mainly dominated by traders. It's expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short - term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: On Thursday, ethylene glycol had a wide - range adjustment. This week, there is a concentrated arrival of foreign - made vessels, and the supply in the month is abundant [7]. - Basis: Spot price was 3978, 01 contract basis was 54, with the futures price lower than the spot price [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 56.7 tons, an increase of 6.7 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: Net short position with a reduction in short positions [7]. - Expectation: In the medium - to - long - term, there is a continuous expectation of supply surplus. It's expected that the price center will decline, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, output, consumption, inventory, etc. For example, in January 2024, PTA production capacity was 8062, output was 591, and consumption was 572 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, port inventory, etc. For example, in January 2024, ethylene glycol production was 51, import was 128, and consumption was 211 [12]. - **Price Data**: Includes spot and futures prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products on November 6 and 5, 2025, as well as price changes, basis, and processing margins. For example, the spot price of PTA was 4540 yuan/ton on November 6, 2025, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [13]. 5. PTA Daily View - As described in the "Daily Tips" section for PTA [5] 6. MEG Daily View - As described in the "Daily Tips" section for MEG [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA futures followed the cost side and opened lower and moved lower. PTA's own device restarts and reduces loads simultaneously, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. - The ethylene glycol market was weakly sorted on Monday, with general market discussions. The intraday ethylene glycol disk was weakly running. The spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol starting from the fourth quarter, and the disk performance is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol price center will be adjusted at a low level. Follow - up attention should be paid to device and production and sales changes [7]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be noted for the disk rebound [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Hints PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures opened lower and moved lower, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was general, the spot basis was weak, and individual mainstream suppliers sold goods. The September goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 86 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was around 4490 - 4535. The mainstream spot basis on that day was 01 - 84 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4515, the basis of the 01 contract was - 71, and the disk was at a premium [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous period [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased [6]. - **Expectation**: The PTA futures disk followed the cost side to open lower and move lower. PTA's own device restarts and reduces loads simultaneously, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the ethylene glycol market was weakly sorted, with general market discussions. The intraday ethylene glycol disk was weakly running, and the spot negotiation was at a premium of 88 - 97 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon, and some traders with contract gaps participated in replenishment. The focus of the ethylene glycol foreign market declined slightly [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4342, the basis of the 01 contract was 102, and the disk was at a discount [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared with the previous period [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: The port shipments before the festival were general, and the ethylene glycol port inventory increased from a low level. There will be relatively concentrated arrivals of foreign ships during the National Day holiday. Recently, the market sentiment of ethylene glycol has been mainly dragged down by the progress of new devices and the weakness of the terminal market, and the overall intention of traders to hold goods is weak. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol starting from the fourth quarter, and the disk performance is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol price center will be adjusted at a low level. Follow - up attention should be paid to device and production and sales changes [7]. 3.3. Today's Attention No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA capacity, production, imports, exports, consumption, and inventory [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December (partially incomplete) 2025, including data on ethylene glycol production, imports, consumption, and port inventory [14]. Price - **Spot Price**: The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton; the spot price of paraxylene (PX) CFR China Taiwan decreased by 17 to 824 dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of PTA domestic market decreased by 20 to 4512.5 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG domestic market decreased by 10 to 4335 yuan/ton, etc. [15]. - **Futures Price**: TA01 decreased by 18 to 4286 yuan/ton, TA05 decreased by 20 to 4628 yuan/ton, etc.; EG01 decreased by 17 to 4240 yuan/ton, EG05 decreased by 23 to 4294 yuan/ton, etc. [15]. - **Basis**: TA01 basis decreased by 22 to - 71 yuan/ton, EG01 basis increased by 7 to 102 yuan/ton [15]. - **Profit**: PTA processing fee decreased by 513.896 to - 74.42 yuan/ton; naphtha MEG domestic market profit decreased by 23.03 to - 1162.89 yuan/ton, etc. [15]. Other Data The report also provides data on bottle - chip spot prices, production gross profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, as well as various spreads, inventory analysis, and start - up rates of the polyester upstream and downstream industries from multiple years [16 - 66].