来源：福能期货 （来源：福能期货） PTA:虽然成本端原油承压,但装置检修市场较预期延长,截至11月20日,PTA负荷为72. 1%。同时, 印度BIS取消提振PTA出口,PTA累库预期扭转,基差走强,加工差回升至200元/吨以上。预计震荡 运行为主。 短纤:上周短纤负荷97.5%,环比持平,库存环比+0.1天至8.7天。需求一般,工厂维稳走货为主, 终端开工基本维持,织机开工小幅降至73%,加弹开工小幅降至87%。目前短纤加工差在1020元/吨 附近,处于中性水平。短纤基本面一般,预计跟随成本运行为主。 瓶片:上周瓶片负荷81.6%,环比+2.2%,库存16.06天,环比-0.21天。虽然目前瓶片加工差维持低 位,在429元/吨附近,但高社会库存与弱需求影响下难有改善。瓶片自身基本面指引有限,短期价 格预计跟随成本震荡。 纯苯:本周纯苯开工率小幅下行,但仍处高位,同时由于炼厂利润尚可,预计未来供应依然偏高。 同时当前下游利润普遍亏损,下游己内酰胺或有集体减产动作,苯乙烯检修量处于较高水平,需求 整体偏弱。供增需减下纯苯持续累积,偏弱震荡为主。 苯乙烯:苯乙烯开工维续下降,环比-0.3%至68.95%。但下游 ...

ZHESHANG FUTURES 【L周报20251123】供需弱势难改 核心观点 【免責声明】 2025-11-23 ® 观点： 聚乙烯 震荡下行阶段，后期价格中枢有望下降 ® 合约: 12601 ® 還撮: 【处于产能投放原期中，新增装置陆续落地，存量负荷也较高，同时Q4进口有望放量，供应压力较大；需求进入旺季尾声，难以稍化高产量，在供需过剩之下，聚烯铝价格量心或持续下移。 | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 | 行为駒 | 情得向 | 现货散口 | 策略推荐 | 套保衍生品 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | | | | | | 针对待销售PE量在盘面买入看跌期权来 预防价格下跌风险 | I2601-P-6700 | 买入 | 50 | 53 | | | | 炼厂 | 库存管理 | 库存偏高，担心PE价格下跌 | 多 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 针对待销售PE量 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差略走强，远月基差抬升。贸易商商谈为主，个别主流供 应商出货，11月在01贴水70附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4590~4690附近。12月初在01贴水65~68有成交，12月下在01贴水52 附近有成交，个别偏低。今日主流现货基差在01-70。中性 5、主力持仓：净多 空翻多 偏多 6、预期：近期贸易商活跃度偏低，不过个别聚酯工厂递盘，现货基差略有走强，加工差仍处低位，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟 随成本端震荡为主，现货基差区间波动，关注装置变动情况。 2、 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，11月主流在01贴水75附近商谈成交，个别略低，价格商谈区间在4610~4660附近。12月初在01-71有成交。今 日主流现货基差在01-75。中性 2、基差：现货4637，01合约基差-63，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.97天，环比减少0.12天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA现货基差维持低位运行，贸易商活跃性降低，聚酯工厂递盘稀少，不过在成本端及印度取消BIS认证利好支撑 下，PTA现货价格整体偏强震荡，但加工差仍处低位，预计短期内跟随成本端震荡为主，现货基差区间波动，关注装置变动情 ...

Report Title PTA&MEG Morning Report - November 13, 2025 [1] Core Views - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost side in the short term, with attention to device changes [5]. - MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious upside pressure [7]. Summary by Section 1. PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures closed slightly lower yesterday, with a light trading atmosphere in the spot market and fluctuating spot basis. The expected price will follow the cost side to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4592, and the basis of the 01 contract is -78, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is bearish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, which is bearish [5]. 2. MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol market price was sorted out at a low level, and the spot basis weakened. The futures price fluctuated widely at night [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3953, and the basis of the 01 contract is 62, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China has risen to around 660,000 tons, and there is still room for further accumulation in the short term, which is bearish [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is decreasing, which is bullish [7]. 3. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Weilian Chemical's 2.5 million - ton capacity reduced its load, and Ineos' 1.1 million - ton and Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton capacities stopped production [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Yisheng Dalian's 3.75 - million - ton capacity restored its load, and Zhongtai's 1.2 million - ton capacity increased its load to 70% [9]. 4. Price - **Spot Prices**: The price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton; the price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Taiwan decreased by 17 to 824 dollars/ton; the price of PTA remained unchanged at 4282 yuan/ton; the price of MEG remained unchanged at 3942 yuan/ton [12]. - **Futures Prices**: TA01 increased by 22 to 4670 yuan/ton; EG01 increased by 16 to 3891 yuan/ton [12]. 5. Inventory Analysis - **PTA**: The factory inventory available days in China are presented in a long - term data chart [40]. - **MEG**: The port inventory in East China is presented in a long - term data chart [40]. 6. Profit - **PTA Processing Fee**: It decreased by 421.295 to 18.18 yuan/ton [12]. - **MEG Profits**: The profits of various production methods such as naphtha - based MEG all decreased [12]. - **Polyester Product Profits**: The profits of POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester staple fiber showed different degrees of change [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term price is expected to follow the cost side with a strong and volatile trend. The spot market negotiation atmosphere is currently dull, mainly among traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis is running at a low level near the risk - free arbitrage, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see [5]. - For MEG, it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious resistance above. The port inventory has increased as expected, and the arrival of goods within the week is still relatively large, resulting in weak market sentiment [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level needs to be monitored when the market rebounds [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated upward yesterday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis was stable. The negotiation and transaction price in mid - and late November was around 4565 - 4640, and the mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 78 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4594, the basis of the 01 contract is - 110, and the futures price is at a premium [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The net short position has decreased [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely, and the market negotiation was average. The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased as expected, and the arrival of goods within the week is still relatively large, leading to weak market sentiment. The spot transaction was around a premium of 67 - 72 yuan/ton over the 01 contract [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4008, the basis of the 01 contract is 55, and the futures price is at a discount [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 56.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.7 tons [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: The main position has changed from short to long [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus PTA - The short - term price is expected to follow the cost side with a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the changes in the device [5]. MEG - It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious resistance above. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity has been increasing, and the supply and demand situation has changed. For example, in 2024, the supply growth rate was relatively high in some months, and the inventory also changed accordingly [8]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production and supply of ethylene glycol have changed, and the demand from the polyester industry has also affected its supply - demand balance. The port inventory has also shown different trends in different periods [9]. Price Data - On November 10, 2025, compared with November 7, 2025, the prices of some products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, and MEG have changed. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton, and the PTA processing fee decreased by 382.778 to 56.7 yuan/ton [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, supply has not yet increased significantly, so short - term bearish sentiment on oil prices should be cautious. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to test OPEC's export price - support intention [2] - For methanol, with rising domestic production and high imports, supply pressure increases. Demand is weak, leading to high enterprise and port inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and the high - inventory problem of the 01 contract may further suppress the spot price. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - For urea, prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack drivers, and supply and demand are relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, but the downside space is also limited at current low prices. It is advisable to wait and see [5] - For rubber, prices are rebounding as expected. Set stop - losses and conduct short - term long trades on pullbacks. Partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11] - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak, with poor export prospects. There is continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are falling, while styrene futures prices are rising. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short term due to high - level inventory reduction [16] - For polyethylene, the PE valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [19] - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [22] - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory increase in November, with prices mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There may be opportunities for valuation increases in the medium term [25] - For PTA, continuous inventory accumulation is expected in November, and processing fees are under pressure. There may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium term [28] - For ethylene glycol, there is expected to be continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [30] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 0.10 yuan/barrel, a 0.02% increase, at 460.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG gasoline inventory decreased by 0.56 million barrels to 12.78 million barrels, a 4.17% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.69 million barrels to 9.22 million barrels, an 8.14% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.30 million barrels to 24.48 million barrels, a 1.21% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.16 million barrels to 46.48 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease [5][6] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 17, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, and increased by 15 in southern Shandong. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 2112 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15. The 1 - 5 spread remained stable at - 101 [2] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 30, 30, and 20 respectively. The 01 contract of the futures market increased by 23 yuan to 1667 yuan, with a basis of - 67. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 16 to - 67 due to news of new export quotas [4] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating. The expected resolution of the US government shutdown and the expected easing of Fed funds are macro - bullish factors. As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week and 5.35 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.45%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 4.37 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire exports slowed down. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.6 tons, an increase of 1.7 tons or 1.6% [9][10] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 19 yuan to 4611 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 91 (+19) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 304 (-1) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.8%, up 2.5%; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 81.2%, up 3.8%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 79.7%, down 0.5%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, down 0.9%. Factory inventory was 33.5 tons (-0.3), and social inventory was 104 tons (+1.2) [11] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract was 5422 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton; the basis was - 112 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 24 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active contract was 6317 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton; the basis was 33 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 88.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 471.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spread between EB continuous 1 and continuous 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 66.94%, up 0.22%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.93 tons, a decrease of 1.37 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of PS was 53.50%, up 1.50%; the operating rate of EPS was 53.95%, down 8.30%; the operating rate of ABS was 71.60%, down 0.50% [15] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6802 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a weakening of 22 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.43%, down 0.31%. The production enterprise inventory was 49.02 tons, an increase of 7.42 tons; the trader inventory was 5.01 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.85%, down 0.52%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 79 yuan/ton, an expansion of 2 yuan/ton [18] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6464 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was 46 yuan/ton, a weakening of 13 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.94%, down 0.61%. The production enterprise inventory was 59.99 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons; the trader inventory was 22.86 tons, an increase of 1.5 tons; the port inventory was 6.46 tons, a decrease of 0.07 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.14%, up 0.52%. The LL - PP spread was 338 yuan/ton, an expansion of 4 yuan/ton [21] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6780 yuan; PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars to 823 dollars; the basis was - 61 yuan (+12); the 1 - 3 spread was 2 yuan (+6). The PX load in China was 89.8%, up 2.8%; the Asian load was 80.2%, up 2.1%. The FJDH plant in China and the FCFC plant in Taiwan restarted. The PTA load was 76.4%, down 1.2%. In October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 42.6 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, an increase of 10.8 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 250 dollars (+11), the South Korean PX - MX was 110 dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 110 dollars (-2) [24] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 4664 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton to 4575 yuan. The basis was - 78 yuan (+2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 76.4%, down 1.2%. The downstream load was 91.5%, down 0.2%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 31 was 220.7 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 53 yuan to 167 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 216 yuan [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 18 yuan to 3942 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 41 yuan to 4013 yuan. The basis was 70 yuan (-4), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan (+3). The ethylene glycol load was 72.4%, down 3.8%; the load of synthetic gas production was 71.9%, down 11.5%; the load of ethylene production was 72.7%, up 0.7%. The import arrival forecast was 18.9 tons, and the East China departure on November 6 was 1.1 tons. The port inventory was 56.2 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 825 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 649 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 628 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 740 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 540 yuan [29]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: PL01 - 02 reverse spread on rallies; - Inter - variety: None [4] 2. Core View - The supply - demand situation of propylene remains relatively loose. The supply is expected to increase due to the restart of propylene plants in North China and the resumption of maintenance units. The demand is mainly rigid, with downstream replenishment being cautious. The cost support is weakening as crude oil prices are falling with OPEC+ production increase expectations. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost side and PDH plant start - stop status [3] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main contract is 6205 yuan/ton (+93), the spot price in East China is 6060 yuan/ton (-15), and in North China is 5985 yuan/ton (-25). The basis in East China is - 145 yuan/ton (-108), and in North China is - 147 yuan/ton (-45). The operating rate is 74% (-1%), the spread between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 176 US dollars/ton (-6), the spread between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 98 US dollars/ton (-10), the import profit is - 251 yuan/ton (+136), and the in - plant inventory is 46260 tons (+4770) [2] - Propylene downstream: PP powder operating rate is 41% (+2.74%), production profit is - 5 yuan/ton (+25); epoxy propane operating rate is 68% (+0%), production profit is - 389 yuan/ton (-32); n - butanol operating rate is 86% (-4%), production profit is - 73 yuan/ton (+15); octanol operating rate is 88% (-4%), production profit is - 381 yuan/ton (+18); acrylic acid operating rate is 74% (-1%), production profit is 747 yuan/ton (+11); acrylonitrile operating rate is 79% (+0%), production profit is - 394 yuan/ton (+52); phenol - acetone operating rate is 78% (+0%), production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (+0) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: Propylene supply is expected to increase due to the restart of plants in North China, reduction of external propylene procurement in some areas, and the resumption and capacity increase of maintenance units. Some enterprises offer discounts to sell [3] - Demand side: Downstream replenishment is cautious due to the loosening of propylene prices. The overall downstream operating rate has declined. The supply of PO is stable for now, and the demand is mainly rigid. The acrylic acid plant has seen a significant decline in operating rate due to centralized maintenance, but some plants are expected to restart. The operating rate of PP powder has increased, while that of butanol and octanol has decreased significantly [3] - Cost side: Crude oil prices are falling with OPEC+ production increase expectations, and the cost support is weakening [3] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: PL01 - 02 reverse spread on rallies; - Inter - variety: None [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly following the cost in the weak supply - demand situation, and the industry should continue the strategy of hedging on rallies in the fourth - quarter inventory accumulation pattern. MEG is expected to maintain a weak pattern, and the industry should continue the strategy of hedging at high levels [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industry Chain - **Market Review**: In September, although oil prices rose and cost support was strong, PX downstream demand was sluggish, terminal inventory replenishment was cautious, and the new downstream device commissioning was postponed. The MX - PX spread remained high, and the PX absolute price declined. By September 30, the Asian PX closing price was $808.83/ton CFR China, a decrease of $39.84/ton or 4.69% from August 29 [15][17]. - **Maintenance and Restart**: In September, Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton unit and two units of Fuhai Chuang totaling 1.6 million tons restarted after maintenance, while Fujia Dahua's 1.4 million - ton unit was under maintenance. The PX operating rate in September was 89.51%, a month - on - month increase of 0.47% [20]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: By September 30, the PX - naphtha spread was $217.1/ton, a decrease of $34.21/ton from August 29. The high PX - MX spread led to high enterprise operating rates, but weak terminal demand and postponed new device commissioning reduced the PX - naphtha spread [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: In early September, with increasing crude oil production and weak upstream reality, combined with high PTA supply expectations and limited growth space for polyester demand, PTA prices declined. In the middle of the month, due to the Palestine - Israel conflict and improved Sino - US economic and trade relations, PTA prices recovered intermittently but then fell again. In late September, low processing fees and typhoon - affected device shutdowns in South China, along with weak crude oil, led to a decline in PTA prices. By September 30, the PTA spot price was 4,545 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 55 [24][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: In September, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.78%, a month - on - month increase of 2.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.52%. In October, Ineos and Hengli have maintenance plans, and the monthly PTA output may increase significantly, but attention should be paid to whether there will be unexpected production cuts in existing devices [30]. - **Processing Fees**: In September, the PTA monthly average processing fee was 156.94 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.65%. The reduction in the destocking range and lower - than - expected terminal performance limited the improvement of PTA benefits, even with PX price concessions [33]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In October, with insufficient PTA device maintenance and the restart of previously shut - down devices, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to be in a loose balance [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: In September, although the cost side was stable to strong, concerns about future supply - demand inventory accumulation led to a significant decline in MEG prices. Despite the low port inventory and the mid - month inventory reaching a five - year low, the new production affected the futures market, resulting in a pattern of strong basis and weak prices. By September 30, the closing price of Zhangjiagang MEG was 4,275 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,410 yuan/ton [39]. - **Capacity Utilization**: In September, the domestic MEG capacity utilization rate was about 66.95%, with the non - coal - based MEG capacity utilization rate at about 66.85% and the coal - based MEG capacity utilization rate at about 67.1% [40]. - **Port Inventory**: As of October 9, the total MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 443,100 tons, an increase of 88,000 tons or 24.8% from September 29. As of October 8, 2025, the expected total arrival volume of domestic MEG in East China was 203,000 tons [45]. - **Processing Profits**: By September 25, the naphtha - based MEG profit dropped to $129/ton, reaching the lowest level of the year, and the profits of other processes also declined to varying degrees due to weak prices, limited terminal order improvement, and new device commissioning [48]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industry Chain - **Capacity Utilization**: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% due to the restart of some devices and new device commissioning. In October, after successful destocking before the festival, the polyester monthly load is expected to remain stable, but there is a risk of a decline in the second half of October as autumn and winter orders are delivered [49][51]. - **Inventory**: Before the festival, aggressive promotions led to low inventory levels, but inventory increased after the festival as downstream textile manufacturers had holidays. The overall inventory of polyester products is currently in a relatively good state [56]. - **Cash Flow**: With the decline in polymerization costs, polyester product manufacturers offered promotions, compressing local cash flows [59]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of September 25, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 63.12%, a 0.93% increase from the previous period. The average terminal weaving order days were 15.42 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. Due to the National Day holiday and factors such as tariffs and new order supplements, the overall demand is lower than in previous years [64]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: In September, rising oil prices provided strong cost support, but weak PX downstream demand, cautious terminal inventory replenishment, and postponed new device commissioning led to a decline in the PX absolute price [66]. - **Supply Side**: In September, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.78%, and the domestic MEG capacity utilization rate was about 66.95% [67]. - **Demand Side**: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, and the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 63.12%. However, overall demand is lower than in previous years due to various factors [67]. - **Inventory**: PTA supply - demand was in a tight balance before the festival and is expected to move towards a loose balance after the festival. As of October 9, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 24.8% from September 29 [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the market expected it to be bearish, with limited upside for basis and absolute prices to fluctuate with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price was expected to be sorted at a low level before the holiday. The supply - demand balance would turn to surplus in the fourth quarter, and the fundamental support was weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, September cargo was traded at 01 - 73~75, with prices negotiated around 4570 - 4605. Mid - October cargo was traded at a discount of 55 - 60 to 01, and late - October cargo at a discount of 50 to 01. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 74 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4590, 01 contract basis was - 56, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory was 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main positions**: Net short positions were decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: PTA futures rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA plants reduced or stopped production due to typhoons, and polyester sales improved. The spot basis strengthened slightly, but the market remained bearish, with limited upside for the basis [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol declined weakly. Night - session trading was weak, with spot trading at a premium of 57 - 62 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The intraday basis recovered slightly, with September futures trading at a premium of 65 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4300, 01 contract basis was 77, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main positions**: Net short positions were increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: Polyester sales improved last week, and polyester factory inventories decreased. However, the intention to hold positions before the holiday was weak. The price was expected to be sorted at a low level. The supply - demand balance would turn to surplus in the fourth quarter, and the fundamental support was weak [7]. 3. Today's Focus Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 607,000 barrels last week, contrary to analysts' expectations of an increase of 235,000 barrels. The approaching "Golden September and Silver October" season raised expectations of demand. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton plant was shut down for maintenance and was expected to restart in November [9][10][11]. - **Negative factors**: The short - term commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and resistance levels should be watched for a rebound in the market [12]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **PTA**: The report provided PTA supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on capacity, production, imports, exports, and inventory [13]. - **MEG**: The report provided ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on production, imports, and inventory [14]. 4. Fundamental Data Price - The report presented historical price data for bottle chips, production margins, and various spreads for PTA and MEG from 2020 to 2025 [17][20][27]. Inventory Analysis - It included historical inventory data for PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers from 2021 to 2025 [44][46]. Upstream and Downstream开工率 - It showed historical开工率 data for PTA, xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54][58]. Profit - It presented historical profit data for PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, and other products from 2022 to 2025 [63][64].