1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, polyester production cuts are expanding and end - users are gradually on holiday. PTA supply and demand are likely to accumulate, with light spot market negotiations. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side before the Spring Festival, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the commodity atmosphere and upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - **MEG**: Due to the unloading of some ocean - going vessels this week, the visible inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to continue to rise at the beginning of the week. From the second half of the month, the arrival of foreign vessels will be more dispersed. Fundamentally, there is still a strong seasonal inventory accumulation expectation for ethylene glycol from January to February, but the medium - term supply - demand structure is expected to improve moderately. Overseas device restarts are postponed and new maintenance volumes emerge, and the import volume in the second quarter is expected to be revised down. The absolute price of ethylene glycol is already at a low level, with limited downside space and buying support at low levels. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will mainly maintain range consolidation [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis changed little. This week, transactions were negotiated at a discount of around 75 to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5080 - 5145. For the end of February, transactions were at a discount of 57 - 60 to the 05 contract, and for mid - March, at a discount of 43 to the 05 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 05 - 75. The spot price is 5108, the basis of the 05 contract is - 84, and the futures price is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.74 days, a 0.16 - day increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract decreased [6]. - **MEG**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol was narrowly sorted, and the market negotiation was average. During the day, the spot negotiation was around a discount of 105 - 115 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, with some contract traders participating in the purchase. The negotiation atmosphere in the market was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market fluctuated little. During the day, the arrival cargo was traded at around 433 - 435 US dollars/ton, and the cargo for the end of February was negotiated at around 445 - 450 US dollars/ton, with a transaction at around 448 US dollars/ton. Some suppliers participated in the purchase. The spot price is 3635, the basis of the 05 contract is - 104, and the futures price is at a premium. The total inventory in East China is 83.1 tons, a 4.83 - ton increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [7]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: The impact of the 700,000 - ton Gulei Petrochemical device's shutdown for maintenance from early March to around the end of April is positive. The resumption of the 1 - million - ton PTA device of Nengtou last week is negative [8][9]. - **MEG**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the futures price rebound [9]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **PX Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table shows the monthly supply - demand balance of PX from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory changes, domestic utilization rate, and the balance of PX for polyester [10]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table presents the monthly balance of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering production, import, export, total consumption, refined consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year growth rate of production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year growth rate [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table shows the monthly balance of ethylene glycol from October 2025 to September 2026, including production, import, total consumption, polyester consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year growth rate of production, import, supply, and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of supply and consumption [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PET Bottle Chip**: Data on market price, production profit, operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and inventory are presented in the form of charts, showing the trends from 2022 to 2026 [15][16][18][21]. - **PTA**: Data on inter - month spread, basis, processing fee, and factory inventory are presented in charts, covering the period from 2022 to 2026 [24][27][58][41]. - **MEG**: Data on inter - month spread, basis, profit from different production methods, and port inventory are presented in charts, showing the trends from 2022 to 2026 [30][34][59][41]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream**: Data on the operating rates of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are presented in charts, covering the period from 2022 to 2026 [51][55]. - **Polyester Fiber**: Data on the production profit of polyester short - fiber and different types of polyester long - fiber are presented in charts, showing the trends from 2023 to 2026 [62][63][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions and inventory data impact prices, with cold - induced production decline providing support, but investors are advised to participate with light positions due to variable geopolitical factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is abundant, demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival, and prices are affected by geopolitical and cost factors, with follow - up pressure [2] - **Asphalt**: In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival. Prices are affected by crude oil and raw material imports [2] - **Polyester**: Macro - environment cools, crude oil prices fall, and polyester raw materials are expected to fluctuate with costs, with a first - quarter inventory build - up expected [4] - **Rubber**: The macro - environment cools, and the rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - weakness situation, with prices expected to decline and fluctuate [4] - **Methanol**: Supply may decrease in February, demand from MTO devices may decline, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range at a low level [5] - **Polyolefins**: Supply may increase slightly, inventory will increase passively during the holiday, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 3 - month contract rose 1.07 dollars to 63.21 dollars/barrel (1.72% increase), Brent 4 - month contract rose 1.03 dollars to 67.33 dollars/barrel (1.55% increase), and SC2603 rose 8 yuan/barrel to 457.8 yuan/barrel (1.78% increase). Geopolitical tensions and API data on inventory changes are key factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2603 fell 3.81% to 22701 yuan/ton, LU2604 fell 2.28% to 3168 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, and demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan/ton. In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 1.14% to 5150 yuan/ton, EG2605 was flat at 3767 yuan/ton. A 500,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China restarted, and there are inventory build - up expectations in the first quarter [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2605 rose 200 yuan/ton to 16180 yuan/ton, NR rose 170 yuan/ton to 13095 yuan/ton, BR rose 285 yuan/ton to 13185 yuan/ton. The macro - environment cools, and supply exceeds demand [4] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2225 yuan/ton. Supply may decrease in February, and demand from MTO devices may decline [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, East China's PP prices were between 6550 - 6750 yuan/ton. Supply may increase slightly, and inventory will increase during the holiday [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, PVC market prices in East China were stable with a slight increase. Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 4, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes [7] 3.3 Market News - Trump said on February 2 that the US and India reached a trade deal, with India potentially stopping buying Russian oil and the US reducing tariffs on Indian goods. API data showed that last week, US crude and distillate inventories decreased sharply, while gasoline inventory increased significantly [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The section presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [11][13][15][17][19][22][24][26] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The section shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [28][31][35][36][38][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The section presents the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products [41][43][46][49][51][53][55] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The section shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products [57][59][61][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The section presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products [67][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and several analysts, along with their professional backgrounds and honors [72][73][74][75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures rose and then fell yesterday, with the spot market having a general negotiation atmosphere and a strong spot basis. Some polyester factories replenished their stocks. The short - term PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price increased, but the night - session opened lower and traded weakly. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, with some buying support at low levels. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand structure will improve starting from March [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No specific content provided for a detailed summary. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures rose and then fell, spot negotiation was general, basis was strong, and some polyester factories restocked. Mainstream suppliers sold goods. The spot was traded at a discount of 40 - 55 to the 05 contract, with prices ranging from 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton. The current mainstream spot basis is 05 - 50 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 5105 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is - 39, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net long position, with long positions increasing [6]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: The price increased on Tuesday, but the night - session opened lower. The spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon, and some contract merchants replenished stocks. The overseas price also increased slightly. The recent arrival negotiation is around 444 - 446 US dollars/ton, and the end - of - January cargo is slightly at a premium [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3752 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is - 145, with the futures price higher than the spot price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Device Changes**: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart around the end of January. The 1.1 - million - ton Ineos and 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng Ningbo plants have restarted. A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has restarted, and a 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Ningbo is expected to resume operation on the 24th [10]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Price Data**: Includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and their corresponding futures prices, basis, and processing margins on December 30 and 29, 2025 [13]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Displays the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products over the years [41][43][46]. - **Operating Rates**: Covers the operating rates of polyester upstream (PTA, PX, MEG) and downstream (polyester, textile enterprises) over the years [53][55][57]. - **Profit Data**: Shows the processing margins of PTA and the production profits of MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) over the years [59][62][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, last week there were more changes in PTA plants, but the downstream polyester load also decreased. The supply - demand pattern of PTA itself changed little. The futures market followed the cost side to rise significantly. The spot basis loosened. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the changes of upstream and downstream plants [6]. - For MEG, last week the entry of ethylene glycol ships into tanks was smooth. It is expected that the visible inventory will still increase at the beginning of next week. Fundamentally, ethylene glycol has been accumulating inventory in the near - term, but the supply - demand structure will improve from March. This week, polyester plants implemented moderate production cuts, and the monthly average load was revised down. The overseas supply of ethylene glycol will be further squeezed, and it will gradually be reflected in the import volume from February. In reality, the high port inventory and the continuous accumulation situation will restrict the rebound height of ethylene glycol. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will be range - bound in the near future, and there is certain buying support at low levels [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Hints - **PTA**: - On Friday, the mainstream of December goods was traded at a discount of 65 to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5100 - 5250. January goods were traded at a discount of 60 to the 05 contract, and February goods at a discount of 50. December warehouse receipts were traded at around 05 - 73. The mainstream spot basis on that day was 05 - 65. The spot price was 5170, and the 05 contract basis was - 110, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory was 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract increased [6][7]. - **MEG**: - On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was widely adjusted, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened higher and then weakened, with weak buying sentiment. In the morning, the ethylene glycol market was narrowly sorted at a low level, and the spot was negotiated at a discount of 160 - 152 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the afternoon, the market fluctuated upward, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. At the end of the session, next - week's spot was negotiated at a discount of 146 - 148 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market fluctuated upward. In the morning, the recent shipments were negotiated at around 440 - 442 US dollars/ton, and the buyers in the market were cautious. In the afternoon, the negotiation of January shipments rebounded to around 448 - 450 US dollars/ton, and the trading was stalemate. The domestic and foreign market transaction negotiation ranges were 3632 - 3700 yuan/ton and 440 - 448 US dollars/ton respectively. The spot price was 3670, and the 05 contract basis was - 176, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The total inventory in the East China region was 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [8][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Device Changes**: - A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has stopped for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. - The 1.1 - million - ton Ineos and 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng Ningbo plants have restarted. - A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has restarted after heating up. It was shut down for maintenance at the end of November. - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Ningbo is expected to resume operation on the 24th. It was shut down for maintenance in November [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory [14]. - **Price and Profit Data**: - It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from December 25 to December 26, 2025, as well as the profit data of different production methods of PTA and MEG and polyester products [15]. - **Historical Data Charts**: There are multiple historical data charts, including the price, production profit, start - up rate, inventory, and spread data of PTA, MEG, PET bottle chips, polyester fibers, etc., covering the time range from 2020 to 2025 [18][21][24][27][28][32][35][39][42][45][47][50][52][54][57][59][61][62][63][66][68][70][71][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent changes in PTA devices are relatively small, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be acceptable. The futures market has risen significantly following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - For MEG, the second - phase device of CNOOC Shell has been successfully restarted. The changes of Huayi and Yulin Chemical devices should be noted around the end of the month. There is still room for a slight increase in the overall ethylene glycol operating rate, and the domestic supply will show a certain increase. In the long - term, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the market sentiment needs time to recover. In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol will be mainly sorted at a low level, and the impact of cost and device news should be noted [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis strengthened. The negotiation was mainly among traders. The December goods were negotiated at a discount of 10 - 16 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4995 - 5110. The January goods were traded at a discount of 60 - 65 to the 05 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 13. The spot is 5060, the basis of the 05 contract is - 92, and the futures price is higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory is 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net long, and the long position increases [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The spot negotiation of ethylene glycol was around a discount of 0 - 15 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Some contract traders in the market actively replenished their stocks, and there was little negotiation for next - week's spot. In the morning, affected by the decline in polyester load, the ethylene glycol market declined moderately, and in the afternoon, the market maintained a narrow range. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated strongly. The January shipment was negotiated and traded at around 438 - 445 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in the offer at high prices, with the overall transaction being relatively stalemate. The spot is 3635, the basis of the 05 contract is - 183, and the futures price is higher than the spot price. The total inventory in East China is 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and the short position increases [8]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand, and the port inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio [12]. - **Price and Profit Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, polyester fibers on December 25 and 24, 2025, as well as the basis, processing fees, and production profits of different products [13]. 5.影响因素总结 - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Not provided in the content - **Unfavorable Influencing Factors**: Not provided in the content - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. For the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]

Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each commodity, including cautious sell, short - term rebound, and cautious buy [1][3][6] Core Views - The overall view is that the energy and chemical industry is facing complex situations with factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, supply - demand imbalances, and cost fluctuations influencing prices. Different commodities have different trends, with some facing downward pressure and others having short - term rebound opportunities [1][3][6] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Core view: Short - term rebound due to geopolitical uncertainties in South America, but in the off - season with supply surplus, overall bearish. - Main logic: Geopolitical issues in South America and the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers boost prices in the short - term. However, there is a supply surplus in the off - season, with OPEC+ in an expansion cycle, increasing global floating storage and in - transit crude, and rising US inventories [1][9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of SC [435 - 445] [11] LPG - Core view: Cautious sell. - Main logic: The cost side is under pressure as the long - term trend of crude oil is downward. Although there is some resilience in downstream chemical demand, inventories are still a concern [1][15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [16] L (Plastic) - Core view: Short - term rebound but overall bearish. - Main logic: Market sentiment is improving, leading to a short - term rebound. However, the fundamentals are weak with a high supply and low demand situation. There is also pressure to reduce inventory [20] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of L [6300 - 6500] [20] PP - Core view: Short - term rebound but overall bearish. - Main logic: It rebounds along with the chemical sector, but there is high inventory pressure in December. PDH profit compression increases the expectation of maintenance [24] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of PP [6200 - 6400] [24] PVC - Core view: High inventory restricts the rebound space. - Main logic: Lanthanum carbonate price reduction leads to a short - term rebound. However, due to seasonal off - peak demand and high inventory, the long - term trend depends on inventory reduction [28] - Strategy: Take partial profits on long positions. Wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of V [4650 - 4800] [28] PTA - Core view: Consider buying on dips. - Main logic: Supply - side maintenance is in progress, and the short - term supply - demand balance is tight. However, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January. Downstream demand is good currently but expected to weaken [30] - Strategy: Focus on buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips. Focus on the range of TA [5060 - 5150] [31] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - Core view: Rebound but consider shorting on the rebound. - Main logic: Domestic production load is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. Although the valuation is low, there is a lack of upward drivers [33] - Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities on the rebound. Focus on the range of EG05 [2139 - 2179] [34] Methanol - Core view: Cautious about chasing long positions. - Main logic: Domestic production load is at a high level, and there is still supply pressure in December. The demand side is slightly weakening [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Look for buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips [39] Urea - Core view: Range - bound oscillation. - Main logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase in December, while the winter storage has limited positive effects. There is still an arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets [41] - Strategy: Expect a weakening oscillation. Look for buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips. Focus on the range of UR05 [1710 - 1745] [43] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - Core view: Supply is sufficient, and the price is under pressure. - Main logic: Although it is the consumption peak season, the relatively mild weather in the US reduces demand support. The supply side is relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Focus on the range of NG [3.602 - 4.054] [47] Asphalt - Core view: Short - term rebound due to South American geopolitical conflicts. - Main logic: It is mainly affected by the cost of crude oil. The short - term rebound is due to South American geopolitical uncertainties, but the supply - demand situation is weak [50] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [51] Glass - Core view: Rebound at a low level. - Main logic: Cold repair is increasing, and the daily melting volume is decreasing. High inventory restricts the short - term rebound. The real estate market is in an adjustment period [55] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of FG [1030 - 1070] [55] Soda Ash - Core view: Weak oscillation. - Main logic: Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. There is a plan to put into production a large - scale device at the end of the month, and the demand from the real estate and glass industries is weak [59] - Strategy: Take partial profit on short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [59]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Views PTA - The supply - demand pattern of PTA is expected to be acceptable in the near term, as some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, driving the continuous strengthening of the spot basis. The futures market has also risen significantly following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will show a strong - side fluctuation. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream loads [5]. MEG - Last week, the unloading of ethylene glycol at ports was smooth, and with some domestic trade goods being shipped into storage, it is expected that the visible inventory will still rise moderately early next week. Fundamentally, the medium - and long - term inventory accumulation expectation for ethylene glycol still exists, and the available spot in the market will continue to be abundant. It will take time to restore market confidence. Next week is the delivery node, so attention should be paid to the replenishment rhythm of traders in the market. In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol will mainly be sorted out at a low level, and attention should be paid to the impact of cost and device news [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No specific review content was found in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, December cargo was traded around 01 - 10 or at a 70 - point discount to 05, with individual transactions slightly higher at a 55 - point discount to 05, and the price negotiation range was 4680 - 4815. January cargo was traded around 05 - 60 to 70 or at the 01 level. Cargo for mid - to - late February was traded around 05 - 55. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 10 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4765, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 117, indicating a premium on the futures market [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.76 days, a decrease of 0.1 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net position is long, changing from short to long [5]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned in the core view [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated weakly, and the market buying sentiment was average. The ethylene glycol futures market showed a weak downward trend, and the follow - up of buyers in the market was average. The mainstream negotiation and transaction of next - week's spot were at a discount of 15 - 18 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Near the end of the session, the ethylene glycol spot price further weakened to around 3600 yuan/ton. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol external market weakened slightly, and the negotiation was rather stalemate. In the morning, the negotiation and transaction of December - end and January - shipped goods were around 430 - 435 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, as the ethylene glycol futures market weakened, the negotiation center of mid - January shipped goods fell to around 428 - 430 US dollars/ton. The negotiation ranges for domestic and external market transactions were 3600 - 3665 yuan/ton and 426 - 438 US dollars/ton respectively [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3625, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 113, indicating a premium on the futures market [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 84.4 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position is short, with a reduction in short positions [7]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned in the core view [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - The report mentions that the short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, so attention should be paid to the cost side. For a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]. 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA - The PTA supply - demand balance sheet shows data on PTA production capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. MEG - The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet shows data on ethylene glycol production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Price data for various products on December 19 and 18, 2025, including spot prices of naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as futures prices and basis, and profit data for different production methods are provided [13]. - There are also multiple charts showing historical data on prices, production margins, inventory, and operating rates of PTA, MEG, PET bottle chips, polyester fibers, etc., from 2019 - 2025 [14][17][20] etc.

Group 1: Oil and Asphalt Industry - The production of asphalt in November decreased, with a utilization rate of 24.8%, down 4.2% month-on-month, while inventory remains at historically low levels. However, demand is expected to weaken due to falling temperatures in the northern regions and limited project increments in the south, leading to a generally weak market outlook [5]. - PX production remains high at 86.8% as of November 14, but with several PTA facilities undergoing maintenance, supply is expected to decline. The PX market may face continuous inventory accumulation in November and December, although long-term supply-demand expectations for next year appear positive [5]. - PTA production is at 72.1% as of November 20, with maintenance extending longer than anticipated. The cancellation of PTA export restrictions by India has improved market conditions, leading to a stronger basis and a recovery in processing margins above 200 CNY/ton [5]. Group 2: Short Fiber and Polyester Industry - Short fiber production remains stable at 97.5%, with inventory increasing slightly to 8.7 days. Demand is moderate, with factories maintaining steady sales, while weaving and texturing operations have slightly decreased [6]. - Bottle chip production is at 81.6% with a decrease in inventory to 16.06 days. Despite low processing margins around 429 CNY/ton, high social inventory and weak demand hinder price improvements [6]. - Pure benzene production is slightly down but remains high, with downstream profits generally in the red, leading to potential production cuts in downstream products. Overall demand is weak, resulting in continued inventory accumulation and a bearish market outlook [6]. Group 3: Cotton and Yarn Market - The increase in new cotton production may not meet expectations, and with low commercial inventory, cotton prices are supported. However, as prices rise, hedging pressures will increase, and recent transactions in the pure cotton yarn market have been weak, with downstream demand primarily driven by necessity [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyethylene is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The contract is 12601. With the capacity being put into production, new devices are gradually coming into operation, and the existing production load is also high. Meanwhile, imports are expected to increase in Q4, leading to significant supply pressure. As the demand enters the end of the peak season and struggles to digest the high output, the price center of polyethylene may continue to move downward [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: Affected by the futures market, the spot price also declined. The basis strengthened overall. The basis in East China strengthened by 60 to around 180 yuan/ton, remained flat in North China at around -20 yuan/ton, and weakened by 10 to around 190 yuan/ton in South China. The non - standard basis showed a similar trend [20]. - **Spread on the Futures Market**: The 1 - 5 spread remained slightly at around -60, at a historical low. The L - PP01 spread climbed above 430 yuan/ton, and the PP - 701 spread was at a high level. Overall, PP faced greater supply pressure (high load and new production), while L had more maintenance and stronger support from agricultural film demand. The methanol market was weak, with port inventories reaching a new high under high imports. The methanol price continued to decline, and the MI0 profit improved month - on - month [28]. 3.2 Domestic Production Profit and Supply - **Cost Curve**: The oil - based process has the largest capacity share, with the East China oil - based cost at 7192 yuan/ton. The coal - based process is an important supplement to domestic PE production, with the Inner Mongolia coal - based cost at 5523 yuan/ton. The light - hydrocarbon process has the second - largest share, but lacks a clear cost calculation formula. The MTO process has a relatively small capacity share, and its marginal impact is limited [54][55][56]. - **Production Profit**: This week, oil prices oscillated and then declined after mid - week. The Brent crude oil price fell below 82 US dollars per barrel. The oil - based profit was at a relatively good level in recent years. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was weak, and the profit of ethylene procurement improved. Affected by supply tightening and strengthened winter - storage expectations, the price of thermal coal continued to rise, the CTO profit deteriorated but remained high, and the inland MTO profit was under pressure [57][58]. - **Domestic Capacity and Production**: As of October 2025, the new domestic PE capacity totaled 393 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10.49%. The planned new capacity in 2025 is 563 million tons, and the capacity growth rate is expected to be 14.91%. This week, the domestic PE output was 67.08 million tons, a decrease of 0.35 million tons compared to the previous week. The operating rate was 82.71%, a decrease of 0.43% compared to the previous week. The maintenance loss was 9.95 million tons, an increase of 1.05 million tons compared to the previous week. New maintenance was added to devices of Wanhua Chemical, Jilin Petrochemical, and Zhongying Petrochemical, and the maintenance devices had not restarted, resulting in a decrease in supply this week [78][79][80]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import Profit - **US Dollar Price in the International Market**: The prices in Northwest Europe were at a high level, especially for LD and HD. The US prices declined. The US dollar prices in the Chinese market showed mixed trends, the prices in Southeast Asia decreased slightly with weak demand, and the prices in South Asia remained stable with light trading [96]. - **Domestic and International Price Spread**: The spread between CFR China and the periphery recovered. The import windows for LD and some HD products were open. Recently, the inventory pressure of foreign suppliers has weakened, and the reporting of offers has slowed down [97][107]. 3.4 Downstream Operation and Profit - **Downstream Operation**: The downstream has entered the end of the peak season. The demand for greenhouse films is gradually shrinking, and the operating rate of mulch films has declined from the high level. The operating rate of packaging films increased by 0.3% month - on - month, with some rigid demand remaining. The operating rates of pipes and hollow products increased by 0.3%, while the operating rates of drawing and injection molding decreased by 1% and 0.1% respectively [122]. - **Downstream Profit**: Relevant data showed the profit trends of different types of films such as mulch films and double - protection films, but specific analysis was not provided in the report [123][132]. 3.5 Inventory - This week, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 2.59 million tons to 50.33 million tons, including a reduction of 2.5 million tons in the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies and 0.09 million tons in coal - based inventory. The social inventory decreased by 1.42 million tons to 48.59 million tons. The increase in upstream maintenance and active inventory reduction, combined with the rigid demand consumption of downstream enterprises, led to the reduction of upstream and social inventories [11][150]. 3.6 Position, Trading Volume, and Warehouse Receipts - **Position**: The positions of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of plastics showed different trends over time [165]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of plastics also showed different trends over time [167][168][169]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts of L showed a change trend over time [174].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the medium - to long - term inventory build - up pressure still exists. In the short term, the price center of gravity is expected to operate weakly, with continuous upward pressure [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review - No specific review content provided 3.2 Daily Tips - No specific tip content provided 3.3 Today's Focus - No specific focus content provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA**: The previous day's futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, the spot basis slightly strengthened, and the far - month basis increased. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 70. The PTA factory inventory is 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions have turned from net short to net long [5][6]. - **MEG**: On Wednesday, the price center of gravity of ethylene glycol was weakly adjusted, and the market trading was fair. The spot basis rebounded to a premium of 28 - 29 yuan/ton over the 01 contract at the end of the session. The total inventory in East China is 62.2 tons, an increase of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main positions are net short, and the short positions have increased [7]. 3.5 Price - The price data of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products on November 19 and 18, 2025, are given, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, and processing fees [12]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - The inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products in different periods from 2021 - 2025 are presented, such as the available days of in - factory inventory and port inventory [40][42][45]. 3.7 Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工率 - The operating rate data of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises in the polyester industry chain from 2021 - 2025 are provided [52][54][56][57]. 3.8 Profit - The profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester products from 2022 - 2025 are given, including processing fees and production gross profits [58][61][63][65][66][68]