Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the market saw a decline followed by a rebound, with a mediocre trading atmosphere and strengthening spot basis. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate widely following the cost side, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the load reduction of upstream and downstream industries [5]. - For MEG, the price dropped significantly and then rebounded. Starting from early April, the arrival of goods at the main ports of ethylene glycol will drop to a low level. With exports and regional supply adjustments, the port inventory will be depleted more rapidly. The market will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the recovery progress of overseas supply and changes in polyester load [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the given content 2.每日提示 - **PTA**: Yesterday, PTA futures rebounded after a decline, with a mediocre trading atmosphere and strengthening spot basis. The spot price was in the range of 6260 - 6670, and the mainstream spot basis today is 05 - 68. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net long, changing from short to long. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate widely following the cost side [5]. - **MEG**: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price dropped significantly and then rebounded. The market trading was okay. After the news that the US had proposed a one - month cease - fire to Iran, the crude oil price plunged, and the ethylene glycol price also dropped sharply in the morning. Then it rebounded. Starting from early April, the arrival of goods at the main ports of ethylene glycol will drop to a low level, and the port inventory will be depleted more rapidly. The market will remain strong [6]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the given content 4.基本面数据 - **PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of PX from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory change, and balance [10]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly balance of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering production, import, export, consumption, and surplus [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly balance of ethylene glycol from October 2025 to September 2026, including production, import, consumption, and surplus [12]. - **Price and Profit Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, as well as their corresponding basis, futures prices, and profits [13]. 5.影响因素总结 - **Likely Positive Factors**: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 - million - ton plant started to reduce the load, William Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plant reduced the load to 90%, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 - million - ton plant shut down due to an accident. Yisheng New Materials' 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant plans to reduce the load by 30% on April 1st [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Not provided in the given content 6.当前主要逻辑和风险点 - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and when the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the market saw the futures oscillate and close lower with a moderate trading atmosphere and fluctuating spot basis. Given the recent high - amplitude fluctuations in the crude oil market, the activity of spot market traders has decreased. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will oscillate widely following the cost side. Attention should be paid to subsequent cost - side and upstream - downstream load - reduction situations [5]. - For MEG, starting from early April, the arrival of ethylene glycol at the main ports will drop to a low level. With exports and regional supply adjustments, the port inventory will be depleted more rapidly. Currently, the Middle East situation remains severe, providing strong support to the cost side. The market will continue to be in a relatively strong pattern when the import supply of ethylene glycol cannot be effectively realized. Follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of overseas supply recovery and changes in polyester load [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content. 2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: The futures oscillated and closed lower, with the spot basis fluctuating. The 3 - month - end PTA was traded around 05 - 75 with a price range of 6590 - 6880 yuan/ton. The mid - to - late April PTA was traded around 05 - 50. This week's warehouse receipts were traded around 05 - 55 to 60. The current mainstream spot basis is 05 - 75. The PTA factory inventory is 5.92 days, a decrease of 0.02 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, changing from long to short [5][6]. - **MEG**: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, with fair trading. In the morning, ethylene glycol mainly fluctuated and consolidated. Contract traders in the market sold more. This week's spot was mainly traded at a discount of 60 - 70 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the afternoon, the market tumbled, and the spot was traded as low as 5050 - 5060 yuan/ton, with moderate buying interest. The total inventory in East China is 91.7 tons, a decrease of 5.8 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [7][8]. 3. Today's Focus (Fundamental Data) - **PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents monthly supply - demand balance data from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory changes, domestic utilization rate, and balance to polyester [11]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows monthly balance data from October 2025 to September 2026, covering production, import, export, consumption, surplus, year - on - year production and consumption changes, and cumulative year - on - year changes [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides monthly balance data from October 2025 to September 2026, including production, import, consumption, surplus, year - on - year changes in production, import, supply, and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year changes [13]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot and futures prices and price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers on March 24 and 23, 2026, as well as profit data for different production methods [14]. 4. Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely Positive Factors**: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 - million - ton plant started to reduce its load, William Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plant reduced its load to 90%, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 - million - ton plant shut down due to an accident. Due to upstream raw material supply issues, Yisheng New Materials' 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant plans to reduce its load by 30% starting from April 1 [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Not provided in the content. 5. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - Short - term commodity markets are significantly affected by the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to the cost side. When the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the futures market had significant fluctuations, with the price rising to the daily limit and then falling sharply. The spot basis changed little. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate widely following the cost side, and attention should be paid to the subsequent cost side and device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center had a sharp correction. The short - term trend follows the macro - level and cost side. With the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the reduction of domestic oil - based devices will gradually be reflected, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of the devices and overseas situations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 - No information provided in the report 3.2每日提示 - **PTA**: The futures market fluctuated greatly, with the price rising to the daily limit and then falling sharply. The spot basis changed little. The current spot basis is 05 - 15, and the price negotiation range is around 5760 - 6800. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position has changed from net short to net long. The PTA factory inventory is 6.37 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 days [5]. - **MEG**: The price center had a sharp correction. The night - session price fluctuated widely. The spot mainstream transaction was around a premium of 10 - 35 yuan/ton over the 05 contract. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased. The inventory in East China is 94.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.94 tons [6]. 3.3今日关注 - **Influencing factors**: The positive factor is that Yihua's 3 million - ton device is under maintenance. The negative factors include that Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device has reached full production, Dushan's 2.5 million - ton and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton devices have restarted, and Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device has increased its load [7][8]. - **Supply - demand balance tables**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance tables of PX, PTA, and MEG from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, consumption, and surplus [9][10][11]. - **Price data**: It shows the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers on March 10 and 9, 2026, as well as the changes in basis, spreads, and processing fees [12]. 3.4基本面数据 - **Price trends**: It includes the price trends of PET bottle chips, production gross profit, operating rate, inventory, PTA and MEG spreads, basis, and spot spreads from 2022 to 2026 [14][17][19][22][25][28][31][35][38]. - **Inventory analysis**: It shows the inventory trends of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers from 2021 to 2026 [41][43][45][47][49]. - **Operating rate**: It presents the operating rate trends of polyester upstream and downstream industries from 2022 to 2026 [52][54][56]. - **Profit analysis**: It shows the profit trends of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from 2022 to 2026 [57][60][62][64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - For crude oil, the current price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short - term, the supply gap from Iran remains. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, a mid - term layout approach is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical tensions to eliminate tail risks [1][2]. - For methanol, it has fully incorporated the current geopolitical premium. With no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. - For urea, despite the positive downstream demand expectations, the supply - demand situation is in a state of both supply and demand being strong. The marginal influence is mostly about quotas, and there is little positive impact on quotas. The fundamentals of urea are expected to turn negative, so it is advisable to short at high prices [6][7]. - For rubber, the market is driven by macro and capital factors. The future trend faces a crucial test. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [9][12]. - For PVC, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a neutral level. The supply reduction is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. The overall situation is a domestic supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the short - term rebound is driven by crude oil cost sentiment [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, the spot and futures prices of both have risen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. Wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [16][17]. - For polyethylene, due to geopolitical conflicts, the spot and futures prices have increased. The PE valuation has room to decline. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand side is expected to recover seasonally [19][20]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The supply pressure will be relieved in the first half of 2026 with no new capacity plans. The downstream start - up rate has a strong seasonal rebound. In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [21][23]. - For p - xylene (PX), the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans with a low overall load. In the short - term, PX will maintain a stockpiling pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter a de - stocking cycle. Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil [25][26]. - For PTA, as the maintenance expectations decline, it is difficult for PTA to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has declined, and there is room for valuation increase in the mid - term. It is recommended to follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices [28][29]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high. Although the import is expected to decline in March, the port stockpiling pressure is still large. In the mid - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The valuation is currently moderately low year - on - year. With the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import reduction and de - stocking. It is advisable to pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low prices [30][31]. 3. Summary of Each Product Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures rose 61.30 yuan/barrel, or 12.00%, to 572.30 yuan/barrel. Chinese weekly crude oil data showed a decrease in crude oil arrival inventory by 1.43 million barrels to 199.82 million barrels, a decrease in gasoline commercial inventory by 0.42 million barrels to 94.58 million barrels, an increase in diesel commercial inventory by 9.22 million barrels to 111.99 million barrels, and an increase in total refined oil commercial inventory by 8.80 million barrels to 206.58 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: Mid - term layout is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical tensions to eliminate tail risks [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 254.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2557 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 351 yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Take profits at high prices as it has fully incorporated the geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, and Shanxi changed by 30 yuan/ton; in Hebei and Hubei by 20 yuan/ton; and in the Northeast remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at 21 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1819 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy View**: Short at high prices as the fundamentals are expected to turn negative [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities generally declined, and rubber tumbled. The future trend faces a crucial test. The long side believes in limited rubber production increase in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved Chinese demand expectations; the short side believes in uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - season demand. As of February 26, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 32.30%, and that of semi - steel tires was 38.35%. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 million tons, and as of February 24, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons [9][10]. - **Strategy View**: Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, buy the NR main contract and short the RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 71 yuan to 4939 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 259 (- 21) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 121 (+11) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 82.1%, with the calcium - carbide method at 81.7% (down 0.3% month - on - month) and the ethylene method at 83.2% (up 0.7% month - on - month). The overall downstream operating rate was 17.1% (up 17.1% month - on - month). The factory inventory was 50.4 million tons (- 0.1), and the social inventory was 135.3 million tons (+1) [14]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the short - term rebound is driven by crude oil cost sentiment [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 6620 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. The pure benzene active contract closing price was 6761 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 141 yuan/ton, narrowing by 70 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 8150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton, and the active contract closing price was 8081 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. The basis was 69 yuan/ton, strengthening by 35 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 158 yuan/ton, up 17.63 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 218.3 yuan/ton, down 58.6 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.24%, up 3.16%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 17.56 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons. The three - S weighted operating rate was 30.45%, up 2.72%, the PS operating rate was 49.40% (down 0.30%), the EPS operating rate was 12.18% (up 12.18%), and the ABS operating rate was 70.70% (up 1.80%) [16]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7200 yuan/ton, up 209 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7075 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton. The basis was - 125 yuan/ton, strengthening by 66 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 86.88%, down 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory was 57.97 million tons, an increase of 23.60 million tons, and the trader inventory was 4.69 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 18.22%, down 1.58%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 17 yuan/ton, widening by 97 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand side is expected to recover seasonally [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7223 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton. The basis was - 98 yuan/ton, strengthening by 85 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.91%, up 0.26%. The production enterprise inventory was 73.99 million tons, an increase of 34.87 million tons, the trader inventory was 24.97 million tons, an increase of 7.3 million tons, and the port inventory was 8.86 million tons, an increase of 1.57 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, up 8.49%. The LL - PP spread was - 23 yuan/ton, narrowing by 16 yuan/ton, and the PP5 - 9 spread was 54 yuan/ton, widening by 76 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Strategy View**: Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices as the supply pressure is relieved and the downstream start - up rate has a strong seasonal rebound [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 148 yuan to 7984 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 20 US dollars to 1019 US dollars. The basis was 130 yuan (- 6), and the 5 - 7 spread was 50 yuan (+16). The Chinese PX load was 92.4% (up 0.4%), and the Asian load was 84.9% (up 1.2%). A 2.5 - million - tonne unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical's maintenance plan was postponed, while an overseas plant in Kuwait restarted. The PTA load was 76.6% (up 1.8%). In February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 41.5 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of December was 465 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 295 US dollars (- 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 143 US dollars (- 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 US dollars (- 14) [25]. - **Strategy View**: Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil as it will gradually enter a de - stocking cycle [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 302 yuan to 5552 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 220 yuan to 5375 yuan. The basis was - 55 yuan (+5), and the 5 - 9 spread was 14 yuan (+40). The PTA load was 76.6% (up 1.8%). The downstream load was 79.5% (up 1.9%). On February 27, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 259.7 million tons, an increase of 9.5 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee fell 131 yuan to 145 yuan, and the on - market processing fee rose 12 yuan to 412 yuan [28]. - **Strategy View**: Follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices in the mid - term as it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle and there is room for valuation increase [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 100 yuan to 4025 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 141 yuan to 3894 yuan. The basis was - 56 yuan (+13), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 48 yuan (+59). The ethylene glycol load was 79% (up 2%), with the syngas - based production at 84% (up 4.1%) and the ethylene - based production at 76.2% (up 0.8%). Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in their operating status. The downstream load was 79.5% (up 1.9%). The import arrival forecast was 10.8 million tons, and the East China departure on March 2 was 0.37 million tons. The port inventory was 100.2 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 1451 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 832 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was - 273 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price rose to 750 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price rebounded to 670 yuan [30]. - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low prices due to the tense Iran situation and potential de - stocking [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, polyester production cuts are expanding and end - users are gradually on holiday. PTA supply and demand are likely to accumulate, with light spot market negotiations. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side before the Spring Festival, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the commodity atmosphere and upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - **MEG**: Due to the unloading of some ocean - going vessels this week, the visible inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to continue to rise at the beginning of the week. From the second half of the month, the arrival of foreign vessels will be more dispersed. Fundamentally, there is still a strong seasonal inventory accumulation expectation for ethylene glycol from January to February, but the medium - term supply - demand structure is expected to improve moderately. Overseas device restarts are postponed and new maintenance volumes emerge, and the import volume in the second quarter is expected to be revised down. The absolute price of ethylene glycol is already at a low level, with limited downside space and buying support at low levels. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will mainly maintain range consolidation [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis changed little. This week, transactions were negotiated at a discount of around 75 to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5080 - 5145. For the end of February, transactions were at a discount of 57 - 60 to the 05 contract, and for mid - March, at a discount of 43 to the 05 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 05 - 75. The spot price is 5108, the basis of the 05 contract is - 84, and the futures price is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.74 days, a 0.16 - day increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract decreased [6]. - **MEG**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol was narrowly sorted, and the market negotiation was average. During the day, the spot negotiation was around a discount of 105 - 115 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, with some contract traders participating in the purchase. The negotiation atmosphere in the market was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market fluctuated little. During the day, the arrival cargo was traded at around 433 - 435 US dollars/ton, and the cargo for the end of February was negotiated at around 445 - 450 US dollars/ton, with a transaction at around 448 US dollars/ton. Some suppliers participated in the purchase. The spot price is 3635, the basis of the 05 contract is - 104, and the futures price is at a premium. The total inventory in East China is 83.1 tons, a 4.83 - ton increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [7]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: The impact of the 700,000 - ton Gulei Petrochemical device's shutdown for maintenance from early March to around the end of April is positive. The resumption of the 1 - million - ton PTA device of Nengtou last week is negative [8][9]. - **MEG**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the futures price rebound [9]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **PX Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table shows the monthly supply - demand balance of PX from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory changes, domestic utilization rate, and the balance of PX for polyester [10]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table presents the monthly balance of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering production, import, export, total consumption, refined consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year growth rate of production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year growth rate [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table shows the monthly balance of ethylene glycol from October 2025 to September 2026, including production, import, total consumption, polyester consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year growth rate of production, import, supply, and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of supply and consumption [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PET Bottle Chip**: Data on market price, production profit, operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and inventory are presented in the form of charts, showing the trends from 2022 to 2026 [15][16][18][21]. - **PTA**: Data on inter - month spread, basis, processing fee, and factory inventory are presented in charts, covering the period from 2022 to 2026 [24][27][58][41]. - **MEG**: Data on inter - month spread, basis, profit from different production methods, and port inventory are presented in charts, showing the trends from 2022 to 2026 [30][34][59][41]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream**: Data on the operating rates of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are presented in charts, covering the period from 2022 to 2026 [51][55]. - **Polyester Fiber**: Data on the production profit of polyester short - fiber and different types of polyester long - fiber are presented in charts, showing the trends from 2023 to 2026 [62][63][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions and inventory data impact prices, with cold - induced production decline providing support, but investors are advised to participate with light positions due to variable geopolitical factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is abundant, demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival, and prices are affected by geopolitical and cost factors, with follow - up pressure [2] - **Asphalt**: In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival. Prices are affected by crude oil and raw material imports [2] - **Polyester**: Macro - environment cools, crude oil prices fall, and polyester raw materials are expected to fluctuate with costs, with a first - quarter inventory build - up expected [4] - **Rubber**: The macro - environment cools, and the rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - weakness situation, with prices expected to decline and fluctuate [4] - **Methanol**: Supply may decrease in February, demand from MTO devices may decline, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range at a low level [5] - **Polyolefins**: Supply may increase slightly, inventory will increase passively during the holiday, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 3 - month contract rose 1.07 dollars to 63.21 dollars/barrel (1.72% increase), Brent 4 - month contract rose 1.03 dollars to 67.33 dollars/barrel (1.55% increase), and SC2603 rose 8 yuan/barrel to 457.8 yuan/barrel (1.78% increase). Geopolitical tensions and API data on inventory changes are key factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2603 fell 3.81% to 22701 yuan/ton, LU2604 fell 2.28% to 3168 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, and demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan/ton. In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 1.14% to 5150 yuan/ton, EG2605 was flat at 3767 yuan/ton. A 500,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China restarted, and there are inventory build - up expectations in the first quarter [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2605 rose 200 yuan/ton to 16180 yuan/ton, NR rose 170 yuan/ton to 13095 yuan/ton, BR rose 285 yuan/ton to 13185 yuan/ton. The macro - environment cools, and supply exceeds demand [4] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2225 yuan/ton. Supply may decrease in February, and demand from MTO devices may decline [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, East China's PP prices were between 6550 - 6750 yuan/ton. Supply may increase slightly, and inventory will increase during the holiday [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, PVC market prices in East China were stable with a slight increase. Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 4, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes [7] 3.3 Market News - Trump said on February 2 that the US and India reached a trade deal, with India potentially stopping buying Russian oil and the US reducing tariffs on Indian goods. API data showed that last week, US crude and distillate inventories decreased sharply, while gasoline inventory increased significantly [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The section presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [11][13][15][17][19][22][24][26] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The section shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [28][31][35][36][38][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The section presents the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products [41][43][46][49][51][53][55] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The section shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products [57][59][61][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The section presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products [67][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and several analysts, along with their professional backgrounds and honors [72][73][74][75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures rose and then fell yesterday, with the spot market having a general negotiation atmosphere and a strong spot basis. Some polyester factories replenished their stocks. The short - term PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price increased, but the night - session opened lower and traded weakly. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, with some buying support at low levels. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand structure will improve starting from March [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No specific content provided for a detailed summary. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures rose and then fell, spot negotiation was general, basis was strong, and some polyester factories restocked. Mainstream suppliers sold goods. The spot was traded at a discount of 40 - 55 to the 05 contract, with prices ranging from 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton. The current mainstream spot basis is 05 - 50 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 5105 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is - 39, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net long position, with long positions increasing [6]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: The price increased on Tuesday, but the night - session opened lower. The spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon, and some contract merchants replenished stocks. The overseas price also increased slightly. The recent arrival negotiation is around 444 - 446 US dollars/ton, and the end - of - January cargo is slightly at a premium [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3752 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is - 145, with the futures price higher than the spot price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Device Changes**: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart around the end of January. The 1.1 - million - ton Ineos and 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng Ningbo plants have restarted. A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has restarted, and a 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Ningbo is expected to resume operation on the 24th [10]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Price Data**: Includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and their corresponding futures prices, basis, and processing margins on December 30 and 29, 2025 [13]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Displays the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products over the years [41][43][46]. - **Operating Rates**: Covers the operating rates of polyester upstream (PTA, PX, MEG) and downstream (polyester, textile enterprises) over the years [53][55][57]. - **Profit Data**: Shows the processing margins of PTA and the production profits of MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) over the years [59][62][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, last week there were more changes in PTA plants, but the downstream polyester load also decreased. The supply - demand pattern of PTA itself changed little. The futures market followed the cost side to rise significantly. The spot basis loosened. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the changes of upstream and downstream plants [6]. - For MEG, last week the entry of ethylene glycol ships into tanks was smooth. It is expected that the visible inventory will still increase at the beginning of next week. Fundamentally, ethylene glycol has been accumulating inventory in the near - term, but the supply - demand structure will improve from March. This week, polyester plants implemented moderate production cuts, and the monthly average load was revised down. The overseas supply of ethylene glycol will be further squeezed, and it will gradually be reflected in the import volume from February. In reality, the high port inventory and the continuous accumulation situation will restrict the rebound height of ethylene glycol. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will be range - bound in the near future, and there is certain buying support at low levels [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Hints - **PTA**: - On Friday, the mainstream of December goods was traded at a discount of 65 to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5100 - 5250. January goods were traded at a discount of 60 to the 05 contract, and February goods at a discount of 50. December warehouse receipts were traded at around 05 - 73. The mainstream spot basis on that day was 05 - 65. The spot price was 5170, and the 05 contract basis was - 110, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory was 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract increased [6][7]. - **MEG**: - On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was widely adjusted, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened higher and then weakened, with weak buying sentiment. In the morning, the ethylene glycol market was narrowly sorted at a low level, and the spot was negotiated at a discount of 160 - 152 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the afternoon, the market fluctuated upward, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. At the end of the session, next - week's spot was negotiated at a discount of 146 - 148 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market fluctuated upward. In the morning, the recent shipments were negotiated at around 440 - 442 US dollars/ton, and the buyers in the market were cautious. In the afternoon, the negotiation of January shipments rebounded to around 448 - 450 US dollars/ton, and the trading was stalemate. The domestic and foreign market transaction negotiation ranges were 3632 - 3700 yuan/ton and 440 - 448 US dollars/ton respectively. The spot price was 3670, and the 05 contract basis was - 176, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The total inventory in the East China region was 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [8][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Device Changes**: - A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has stopped for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. - The 1.1 - million - ton Ineos and 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng Ningbo plants have restarted. - A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has restarted after heating up. It was shut down for maintenance at the end of November. - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Ningbo is expected to resume operation on the 24th. It was shut down for maintenance in November [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory [14]. - **Price and Profit Data**: - It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from December 25 to December 26, 2025, as well as the profit data of different production methods of PTA and MEG and polyester products [15]. - **Historical Data Charts**: There are multiple historical data charts, including the price, production profit, start - up rate, inventory, and spread data of PTA, MEG, PET bottle chips, polyester fibers, etc., covering the time range from 2020 to 2025 [18][21][24][27][28][32][35][39][42][45][47][50][52][54][57][59][61][62][63][66][68][70][71][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent changes in PTA devices are relatively small, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be acceptable. The futures market has risen significantly following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - For MEG, the second - phase device of CNOOC Shell has been successfully restarted. The changes of Huayi and Yulin Chemical devices should be noted around the end of the month. There is still room for a slight increase in the overall ethylene glycol operating rate, and the domestic supply will show a certain increase. In the long - term, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the market sentiment needs time to recover. In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol will be mainly sorted at a low level, and the impact of cost and device news should be noted [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis strengthened. The negotiation was mainly among traders. The December goods were negotiated at a discount of 10 - 16 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4995 - 5110. The January goods were traded at a discount of 60 - 65 to the 05 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 13. The spot is 5060, the basis of the 05 contract is - 92, and the futures price is higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory is 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net long, and the long position increases [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The spot negotiation of ethylene glycol was around a discount of 0 - 15 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Some contract traders in the market actively replenished their stocks, and there was little negotiation for next - week's spot. In the morning, affected by the decline in polyester load, the ethylene glycol market declined moderately, and in the afternoon, the market maintained a narrow range. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated strongly. The January shipment was negotiated and traded at around 438 - 445 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in the offer at high prices, with the overall transaction being relatively stalemate. The spot is 3635, the basis of the 05 contract is - 183, and the futures price is higher than the spot price. The total inventory in East China is 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and the short position increases [8]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand, and the port inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio [12]. - **Price and Profit Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, polyester fibers on December 25 and 24, 2025, as well as the basis, processing fees, and production profits of different products [13]. 5.影响因素总结 - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Not provided in the content - **Unfavorable Influencing Factors**: Not provided in the content - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. For the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]

Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each commodity, including cautious sell, short - term rebound, and cautious buy [1][3][6] Core Views - The overall view is that the energy and chemical industry is facing complex situations with factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, supply - demand imbalances, and cost fluctuations influencing prices. Different commodities have different trends, with some facing downward pressure and others having short - term rebound opportunities [1][3][6] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Core view: Short - term rebound due to geopolitical uncertainties in South America, but in the off - season with supply surplus, overall bearish. - Main logic: Geopolitical issues in South America and the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers boost prices in the short - term. However, there is a supply surplus in the off - season, with OPEC+ in an expansion cycle, increasing global floating storage and in - transit crude, and rising US inventories [1][9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of SC [435 - 445] [11] LPG - Core view: Cautious sell. - Main logic: The cost side is under pressure as the long - term trend of crude oil is downward. Although there is some resilience in downstream chemical demand, inventories are still a concern [1][15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [16] L (Plastic) - Core view: Short - term rebound but overall bearish. - Main logic: Market sentiment is improving, leading to a short - term rebound. However, the fundamentals are weak with a high supply and low demand situation. There is also pressure to reduce inventory [20] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of L [6300 - 6500] [20] PP - Core view: Short - term rebound but overall bearish. - Main logic: It rebounds along with the chemical sector, but there is high inventory pressure in December. PDH profit compression increases the expectation of maintenance [24] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of PP [6200 - 6400] [24] PVC - Core view: High inventory restricts the rebound space. - Main logic: Lanthanum carbonate price reduction leads to a short - term rebound. However, due to seasonal off - peak demand and high inventory, the long - term trend depends on inventory reduction [28] - Strategy: Take partial profits on long positions. Wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of V [4650 - 4800] [28] PTA - Core view: Consider buying on dips. - Main logic: Supply - side maintenance is in progress, and the short - term supply - demand balance is tight. However, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January. Downstream demand is good currently but expected to weaken [30] - Strategy: Focus on buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips. Focus on the range of TA [5060 - 5150] [31] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - Core view: Rebound but consider shorting on the rebound. - Main logic: Domestic production load is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. Although the valuation is low, there is a lack of upward drivers [33] - Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities on the rebound. Focus on the range of EG05 [2139 - 2179] [34] Methanol - Core view: Cautious about chasing long positions. - Main logic: Domestic production load is at a high level, and there is still supply pressure in December. The demand side is slightly weakening [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Look for buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips [39] Urea - Core view: Range - bound oscillation. - Main logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase in December, while the winter storage has limited positive effects. There is still an arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets [41] - Strategy: Expect a weakening oscillation. Look for buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips. Focus on the range of UR05 [1710 - 1745] [43] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - Core view: Supply is sufficient, and the price is under pressure. - Main logic: Although it is the consumption peak season, the relatively mild weather in the US reduces demand support. The supply side is relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Focus on the range of NG [3.602 - 4.054] [47] Asphalt - Core view: Short - term rebound due to South American geopolitical conflicts. - Main logic: It is mainly affected by the cost of crude oil. The short - term rebound is due to South American geopolitical uncertainties, but the supply - demand situation is weak [50] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [51] Glass - Core view: Rebound at a low level. - Main logic: Cold repair is increasing, and the daily melting volume is decreasing. High inventory restricts the short - term rebound. The real estate market is in an adjustment period [55] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of FG [1030 - 1070] [55] Soda Ash - Core view: Weak oscillation. - Main logic: Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. There is a plan to put into production a large - scale device at the end of the month, and the demand from the real estate and glass industries is weak [59] - Strategy: Take partial profit on short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [59]