1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA futures followed the cost side and opened lower and moved lower. PTA's own device restarts and reduces loads simultaneously, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. - The ethylene glycol market was weakly sorted on Monday, with general market discussions. The intraday ethylene glycol disk was weakly running. The spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol starting from the fourth quarter, and the disk performance is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol price center will be adjusted at a low level. Follow - up attention should be paid to device and production and sales changes [7]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be noted for the disk rebound [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Hints PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures opened lower and moved lower, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was general, the spot basis was weak, and individual mainstream suppliers sold goods. The September goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 86 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was around 4490 - 4535. The mainstream spot basis on that day was 01 - 84 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4515, the basis of the 01 contract was - 71, and the disk was at a premium [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous period [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased [6]. - **Expectation**: The PTA futures disk followed the cost side to open lower and move lower. PTA's own device restarts and reduces loads simultaneously, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the ethylene glycol market was weakly sorted, with general market discussions. The intraday ethylene glycol disk was weakly running, and the spot negotiation was at a premium of 88 - 97 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon, and some traders with contract gaps participated in replenishment. The focus of the ethylene glycol foreign market declined slightly [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4342, the basis of the 01 contract was 102, and the disk was at a discount [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared with the previous period [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: The port shipments before the festival were general, and the ethylene glycol port inventory increased from a low level. There will be relatively concentrated arrivals of foreign ships during the National Day holiday. Recently, the market sentiment of ethylene glycol has been mainly dragged down by the progress of new devices and the weakness of the terminal market, and the overall intention of traders to hold goods is weak. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol starting from the fourth quarter, and the disk performance is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol price center will be adjusted at a low level. Follow - up attention should be paid to device and production and sales changes [7]. 3.3. Today's Attention No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA capacity, production, imports, exports, consumption, and inventory [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December (partially incomplete) 2025, including data on ethylene glycol production, imports, consumption, and port inventory [14]. Price - **Spot Price**: The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton; the spot price of paraxylene (PX) CFR China Taiwan decreased by 17 to 824 dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of PTA domestic market decreased by 20 to 4512.5 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG domestic market decreased by 10 to 4335 yuan/ton, etc. [15]. - **Futures Price**: TA01 decreased by 18 to 4286 yuan/ton, TA05 decreased by 20 to 4628 yuan/ton, etc.; EG01 decreased by 17 to 4240 yuan/ton, EG05 decreased by 23 to 4294 yuan/ton, etc. [15]. - **Basis**: TA01 basis decreased by 22 to - 71 yuan/ton, EG01 basis increased by 7 to 102 yuan/ton [15]. - **Profit**: PTA processing fee decreased by 513.896 to - 74.42 yuan/ton; naphtha MEG domestic market profit decreased by 23.03 to - 1162.89 yuan/ton, etc. [15]. Other Data The report also provides data on bottle - chip spot prices, production gross profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, as well as various spreads, inventory analysis, and start - up rates of the polyester upstream and downstream industries from multiple years [16 - 66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, soybean meal has a short - term decline due to factors like inventory build - up and improved crop conditions of US soybeans, while rapeseed meal is affected by high inventory, high warehouse receipts, and increased production estimates of Canadian rapeseed [2][6]. - **Short - term bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are short - term bullish. Palm oil benefits from biodiesel policies and export data; soybean oil is influenced by the US EPA's renewable fuel exemption decisions; and rapeseed oil has cost support from manufacturers' price - holding and import prices [2]. - **Cautious bullish**: Cotton, jujube, and live pigs are cautiously bullish. Cotton has a supply - tight situation before new cotton listing and improving demand; jujube is expected to have a reduced production but with inventory pressure; live pigs face short - term selling pressure but long - term potential from capacity reduction [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 3045 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The national average spot price is 3073.14 yuan/ton, down 0.54%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 92.7098 yuan/ton, down 74.20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 889.8 million tons, down 2.80 million tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, up 3.86 million tons from last week [5]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term decline adjustment, with limited downward space due to Sino - US trade costs. Short - term short - selling below 3000 yuan needs caution [2][6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 2501 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The national average spot price is 2628.95 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 329.1675 yuan/ton, down 50.94 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions is 61.38 million tons, down 2.14 million tons from last week [8]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term adjustment. Caution is needed when going long, and short - term participation should wait for short - term stabilization. Attention should be paid to Sino - Australian relations and Canada's response to China's anti - dumping results [2][8]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The national average price is 9565 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The national daily trading volume is 500 units, down 44.32%. The commercial inventory is 58.21 million tons, down 3.52 million tons from last week [9]. - **Export data**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 are expected to be 933437 tons, up 36.41% from the same period last month [10]. - **Market view**: It is in a high - level consolidation. Bullish operations should be cautious this week, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation's impact on crude oil prices and Malaysia's palm oil inventory estimate this month [2][10]. Cotton - **Market data**: The main contract CF2601 closes at 14075 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The domestic spot price is 15335 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The spinning mill's operating rate is 65.8%, up 0.3%, and the weaving factory's operating rate is 37.2%, up 0.2% [11]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The US cotton's excellent - good rate is 54%, down 1%. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 393.5 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. In China, the new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory is 171.26 million tons, lower than the same period [12][13]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term. After September, the long - short rhythm should be adjusted according to demand and new cotton prices [2][14]. Jujube - **Market data**: The main contract CJ2601 closes at 11360 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 9519 tons, down 167 tons from last week [15]. - **Production situation**: The new - season jujube production in southern Xinjiang is estimated to be 50 - 58 million tons, with a reduced production but less than in 2023/24 [16]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to weather impacts on quality and subsequent stocking [2][16]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511 closes at 13745 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. The national average spot price is 13740 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The slaughter enterprise's daily operating rate is 29.52%, up 0.52% [17]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The planned August slaughter volume of sample enterprises is 1322.57 million heads, up 5.26%. The demand is expected to improve in the next 1 - 2 months [18]. - **Market view**: Do not short blindly in the short term. Consider going long on far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage around strong contracts [2][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the financial market faces risks of sharp fluctuations due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, and it is recommended to wait and see for precious metals [2]. - The supply risk related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exists. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is advisable to continue to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions, such as holding short positions for copper, waiting and seeing for aluminum, and considering specific arbitrage strategies for casting aluminum alloy [3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices continued to rise. The Brent 08 contract rose 2.85%, and the SC08 contract rose 8.82%. The supply risk persists, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The conflict has led to increased volatility in international oil prices, and the volatility of fuel - related futures is expected to increase. High - sulfur fuel oil has geopolitical premium support, while the demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is weak [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East conflict is still ongoing, and the international market is strong. The domestic market has some supply pressure, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [23]. - **Bitumen**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the price of bitumen follows the trend of crude oil. The increase in production is limited, the demand is expected to be boosted, and the inventory is declining. However, the crack spread is under pressure [22]. Metals - **Copper**: Last Friday, the volatility of LME copper increased. The short position is recommended to be held, and the trading sentiment of geopolitical risks over the weekend needs to be evaluated [3]. - **Aluminum**: The low - inventory state has led to a large Back structure in Shanghai aluminum. The upward space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price adjusted following Shanghai aluminum. Consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL if the spread expands [5]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading is scarce, the price is falling, the industry profit is repaired, and the production capacity is in an oversupply state. The futures price is in a weak and volatile state, and short - selling is the main strategy [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. However, due to the possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, short - term price increases should be vigilant, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is in a downward trend, and the short position is recommended to be held [9]. - **Tin**: The price of LME tin rose, and a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - **Manganese Ore**: The price is expected to decline further, but the willingness of mines to support the price has increased. The silicon - manganese is temporarily bullish in the short term [18]. - **Silicon - Iron**: It follows the trend of silicon - manganese. The demand is okay, the supply is decreasing, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [19]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The geopolitical risk has increased the price of oil, which has a cost - side boost. The supply and demand of polyethylene change little, while the supply of polypropylene increases, and the demand is in the off - season [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is affected by the energy price increase, but the supply and demand are weak, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. The price of caustic soda is under pressure due to the weak downstream demand [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the cost is affected. The demand is weakening, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term if the geopolitical situation eases [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is expected to decline due to the Middle East conflict. The long - position holders should pay attention to the change of the situation and consider leaving the market at high prices [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: They follow the raw materials. The short - fiber supply - demand situation is improving, while the bottle - chip inventory is rising, and the repair of the processing margin needs to be treated with caution [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal is affected by the price of domestic oils and fats and the weather in the United States. The inventory of soybean meal is increasing, and attention should be paid to the weather in June - August [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: In the short term, pay attention to the long - short game. In the long term, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for vegetable oils [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The upward momentum of the rapeseed series is weak, and the short - term strategy is neutral [37]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price is rising. The remaining grain in the market is scarce, and the price is affected by the weather and the U.S. biodiesel policy [38]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate [39]. - **Pig**: The policy aims to stabilize the price, but the supply pressure is large in the medium term, and the price may decline [40]. - **Egg**: The price may rebound, but it is not a reversal due to the release of production capacity [41]. - **Cotton**: The international and domestic cotton markets are weak due to insufficient demand. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - **Sugar**: The U.S. sugar price is in a downward trend, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The market demand is decreasing, and the trading focus is on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The supply is expected to be low, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider buying on significant pullbacks [46]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market price has increased, but the increase is lower than expected. The spot volume is good, and the 08 contract needs more substantial negative news to decline further [20]. - **Urea**: The agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. The market is expected to fluctuate and correct in the short term [24]. - **Methanol**: The supply may be affected by the situation in the Middle East. The short - term price is strong, but there is a risk of decline in the medium term [25]. - **Styrene**: The cost - side is the main driver, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable [26]. - **Glass**: The production and sales in Shahe are improving, but the overall inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with caution [32]. - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The supply is increasing, the demand is warming up, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and NR and be bullish on BR [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is accumulating, the supply is under high pressure, and the long - term strategy is to be bearish at high prices [34]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The market is in a weak and volatile state, waiting for the clarification of the Israel - Iran situation. It is recommended to allocate dividend assets and pay attention to technology - growth opportunities [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price is rising, and the short - term bullish trend is expected to continue [48].