铜 有色金属日报 2025-11-17 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 铝 【行情资讯】 周五市场风险偏好走弱，铝价下探，伦铝收跌 0.64%至 2858 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 21795 元/ 吨。沪铝加权合约持仓量减少 4.4 至 78.4 万手，期货仓单持平于 6.5 万吨。国内三地铝锭库存增 加，铝棒库存亦增加，铝棒加工费震荡下滑，市场交投仍不佳。华东电解铝现货平水于期货，下游 刚需采买为主。外盘 LME 铝库存减少 0.1 至 55.2 万吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 贴水扩 ...

Report Title PTA&MEG Morning Report - November 13, 2025 [1] Core Views - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost side in the short term, with attention to device changes [5]. - MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious upside pressure [7]. Summary by Section 1. PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures closed slightly lower yesterday, with a light trading atmosphere in the spot market and fluctuating spot basis. The expected price will follow the cost side to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4592, and the basis of the 01 contract is -78, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is bearish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, which is bearish [5]. 2. MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol market price was sorted out at a low level, and the spot basis weakened. The futures price fluctuated widely at night [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3953, and the basis of the 01 contract is 62, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China has risen to around 660,000 tons, and there is still room for further accumulation in the short term, which is bearish [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is decreasing, which is bullish [7]. 3. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Weilian Chemical's 2.5 million - ton capacity reduced its load, and Ineos' 1.1 million - ton and Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton capacities stopped production [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Yisheng Dalian's 3.75 - million - ton capacity restored its load, and Zhongtai's 1.2 million - ton capacity increased its load to 70% [9]. 4. Price - **Spot Prices**: The price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton; the price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Taiwan decreased by 17 to 824 dollars/ton; the price of PTA remained unchanged at 4282 yuan/ton; the price of MEG remained unchanged at 3942 yuan/ton [12]. - **Futures Prices**: TA01 increased by 22 to 4670 yuan/ton; EG01 increased by 16 to 3891 yuan/ton [12]. 5. Inventory Analysis - **PTA**: The factory inventory available days in China are presented in a long - term data chart [40]. - **MEG**: The port inventory in East China is presented in a long - term data chart [40]. 6. Profit - **PTA Processing Fee**: It decreased by 421.295 to 18.18 yuan/ton [12]. - **MEG Profits**: The profits of various production methods such as naphtha - based MEG all decreased [12]. - **Polyester Product Profits**: The profits of POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester staple fiber showed different degrees of change [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term price is expected to follow the cost side with a strong and volatile trend. The spot market negotiation atmosphere is currently dull, mainly among traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis is running at a low level near the risk - free arbitrage, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see [5]. - For MEG, it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious resistance above. The port inventory has increased as expected, and the arrival of goods within the week is still relatively large, resulting in weak market sentiment [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level needs to be monitored when the market rebounds [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated upward yesterday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis was stable. The negotiation and transaction price in mid - and late November was around 4565 - 4640, and the mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 78 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4594, the basis of the 01 contract is - 110, and the futures price is at a premium [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The net short position has decreased [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely, and the market negotiation was average. The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased as expected, and the arrival of goods within the week is still relatively large, leading to weak market sentiment. The spot transaction was around a premium of 67 - 72 yuan/ton over the 01 contract [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4008, the basis of the 01 contract is 55, and the futures price is at a discount [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 56.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.7 tons [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: The main position has changed from short to long [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus PTA - The short - term price is expected to follow the cost side with a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the changes in the device [5]. MEG - It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious resistance above. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity has been increasing, and the supply and demand situation has changed. For example, in 2024, the supply growth rate was relatively high in some months, and the inventory also changed accordingly [8]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production and supply of ethylene glycol have changed, and the demand from the polyester industry has also affected its supply - demand balance. The port inventory has also shown different trends in different periods [9]. Price Data - On November 10, 2025, compared with November 7, 2025, the prices of some products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, and MEG have changed. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton, and the PTA processing fee decreased by 382.778 to 56.7 yuan/ton [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA futures followed the cost side and opened lower and moved lower. PTA's own device restarts and reduces loads simultaneously, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. - The ethylene glycol market was weakly sorted on Monday, with general market discussions. The intraday ethylene glycol disk was weakly running. The spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol starting from the fourth quarter, and the disk performance is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol price center will be adjusted at a low level. Follow - up attention should be paid to device and production and sales changes [7]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be noted for the disk rebound [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Hints PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures opened lower and moved lower, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was general, the spot basis was weak, and individual mainstream suppliers sold goods. The September goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 86 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was around 4490 - 4535. The mainstream spot basis on that day was 01 - 84 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4515, the basis of the 01 contract was - 71, and the disk was at a premium [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous period [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased [6]. - **Expectation**: The PTA futures disk followed the cost side to open lower and move lower. PTA's own device restarts and reduces loads simultaneously, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the ethylene glycol market was weakly sorted, with general market discussions. The intraday ethylene glycol disk was weakly running, and the spot negotiation was at a premium of 88 - 97 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon, and some traders with contract gaps participated in replenishment. The focus of the ethylene glycol foreign market declined slightly [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4342, the basis of the 01 contract was 102, and the disk was at a discount [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared with the previous period [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: The port shipments before the festival were general, and the ethylene glycol port inventory increased from a low level. There will be relatively concentrated arrivals of foreign ships during the National Day holiday. Recently, the market sentiment of ethylene glycol has been mainly dragged down by the progress of new devices and the weakness of the terminal market, and the overall intention of traders to hold goods is weak. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol starting from the fourth quarter, and the disk performance is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol price center will be adjusted at a low level. Follow - up attention should be paid to device and production and sales changes [7]. 3.3. Today's Attention No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA capacity, production, imports, exports, consumption, and inventory [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December (partially incomplete) 2025, including data on ethylene glycol production, imports, consumption, and port inventory [14]. Price - **Spot Price**: The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton; the spot price of paraxylene (PX) CFR China Taiwan decreased by 17 to 824 dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of PTA domestic market decreased by 20 to 4512.5 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG domestic market decreased by 10 to 4335 yuan/ton, etc. [15]. - **Futures Price**: TA01 decreased by 18 to 4286 yuan/ton, TA05 decreased by 20 to 4628 yuan/ton, etc.; EG01 decreased by 17 to 4240 yuan/ton, EG05 decreased by 23 to 4294 yuan/ton, etc. [15]. - **Basis**: TA01 basis decreased by 22 to - 71 yuan/ton, EG01 basis increased by 7 to 102 yuan/ton [15]. - **Profit**: PTA processing fee decreased by 513.896 to - 74.42 yuan/ton; naphtha MEG domestic market profit decreased by 23.03 to - 1162.89 yuan/ton, etc. [15]. Other Data The report also provides data on bottle - chip spot prices, production gross profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, as well as various spreads, inventory analysis, and start - up rates of the polyester upstream and downstream industries from multiple years [16 - 66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, soybean meal has a short - term decline due to factors like inventory build - up and improved crop conditions of US soybeans, while rapeseed meal is affected by high inventory, high warehouse receipts, and increased production estimates of Canadian rapeseed [2][6]. - **Short - term bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are short - term bullish. Palm oil benefits from biodiesel policies and export data; soybean oil is influenced by the US EPA's renewable fuel exemption decisions; and rapeseed oil has cost support from manufacturers' price - holding and import prices [2]. - **Cautious bullish**: Cotton, jujube, and live pigs are cautiously bullish. Cotton has a supply - tight situation before new cotton listing and improving demand; jujube is expected to have a reduced production but with inventory pressure; live pigs face short - term selling pressure but long - term potential from capacity reduction [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 3045 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The national average spot price is 3073.14 yuan/ton, down 0.54%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 92.7098 yuan/ton, down 74.20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 889.8 million tons, down 2.80 million tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, up 3.86 million tons from last week [5]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term decline adjustment, with limited downward space due to Sino - US trade costs. Short - term short - selling below 3000 yuan needs caution [2][6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 2501 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The national average spot price is 2628.95 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 329.1675 yuan/ton, down 50.94 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions is 61.38 million tons, down 2.14 million tons from last week [8]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term adjustment. Caution is needed when going long, and short - term participation should wait for short - term stabilization. Attention should be paid to Sino - Australian relations and Canada's response to China's anti - dumping results [2][8]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The national average price is 9565 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The national daily trading volume is 500 units, down 44.32%. The commercial inventory is 58.21 million tons, down 3.52 million tons from last week [9]. - **Export data**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 are expected to be 933437 tons, up 36.41% from the same period last month [10]. - **Market view**: It is in a high - level consolidation. Bullish operations should be cautious this week, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation's impact on crude oil prices and Malaysia's palm oil inventory estimate this month [2][10]. Cotton - **Market data**: The main contract CF2601 closes at 14075 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The domestic spot price is 15335 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The spinning mill's operating rate is 65.8%, up 0.3%, and the weaving factory's operating rate is 37.2%, up 0.2% [11]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The US cotton's excellent - good rate is 54%, down 1%. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 393.5 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. In China, the new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory is 171.26 million tons, lower than the same period [12][13]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term. After September, the long - short rhythm should be adjusted according to demand and new cotton prices [2][14]. Jujube - **Market data**: The main contract CJ2601 closes at 11360 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 9519 tons, down 167 tons from last week [15]. - **Production situation**: The new - season jujube production in southern Xinjiang is estimated to be 50 - 58 million tons, with a reduced production but less than in 2023/24 [16]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to weather impacts on quality and subsequent stocking [2][16]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511 closes at 13745 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. The national average spot price is 13740 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The slaughter enterprise's daily operating rate is 29.52%, up 0.52% [17]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The planned August slaughter volume of sample enterprises is 1322.57 million heads, up 5.26%. The demand is expected to improve in the next 1 - 2 months [18]. - **Market view**: Do not short blindly in the short term. Consider going long on far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage around strong contracts [2][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the financial market faces risks of sharp fluctuations due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, and it is recommended to wait and see for precious metals [2]. - The supply risk related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exists. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is advisable to continue to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions, such as holding short positions for copper, waiting and seeing for aluminum, and considering specific arbitrage strategies for casting aluminum alloy [3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices continued to rise. The Brent 08 contract rose 2.85%, and the SC08 contract rose 8.82%. The supply risk persists, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The conflict has led to increased volatility in international oil prices, and the volatility of fuel - related futures is expected to increase. High - sulfur fuel oil has geopolitical premium support, while the demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is weak [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East conflict is still ongoing, and the international market is strong. The domestic market has some supply pressure, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [23]. - **Bitumen**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the price of bitumen follows the trend of crude oil. The increase in production is limited, the demand is expected to be boosted, and the inventory is declining. However, the crack spread is under pressure [22]. Metals - **Copper**: Last Friday, the volatility of LME copper increased. The short position is recommended to be held, and the trading sentiment of geopolitical risks over the weekend needs to be evaluated [3]. - **Aluminum**: The low - inventory state has led to a large Back structure in Shanghai aluminum. The upward space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price adjusted following Shanghai aluminum. Consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL if the spread expands [5]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading is scarce, the price is falling, the industry profit is repaired, and the production capacity is in an oversupply state. The futures price is in a weak and volatile state, and short - selling is the main strategy [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. However, due to the possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, short - term price increases should be vigilant, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is in a downward trend, and the short position is recommended to be held [9]. - **Tin**: The price of LME tin rose, and a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - **Manganese Ore**: The price is expected to decline further, but the willingness of mines to support the price has increased. The silicon - manganese is temporarily bullish in the short term [18]. - **Silicon - Iron**: It follows the trend of silicon - manganese. The demand is okay, the supply is decreasing, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [19]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The geopolitical risk has increased the price of oil, which has a cost - side boost. The supply and demand of polyethylene change little, while the supply of polypropylene increases, and the demand is in the off - season [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is affected by the energy price increase, but the supply and demand are weak, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. The price of caustic soda is under pressure due to the weak downstream demand [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the cost is affected. The demand is weakening, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term if the geopolitical situation eases [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is expected to decline due to the Middle East conflict. The long - position holders should pay attention to the change of the situation and consider leaving the market at high prices [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: They follow the raw materials. The short - fiber supply - demand situation is improving, while the bottle - chip inventory is rising, and the repair of the processing margin needs to be treated with caution [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal is affected by the price of domestic oils and fats and the weather in the United States. The inventory of soybean meal is increasing, and attention should be paid to the weather in June - August [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: In the short term, pay attention to the long - short game. In the long term, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for vegetable oils [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The upward momentum of the rapeseed series is weak, and the short - term strategy is neutral [37]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price is rising. The remaining grain in the market is scarce, and the price is affected by the weather and the U.S. biodiesel policy [38]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate [39]. - **Pig**: The policy aims to stabilize the price, but the supply pressure is large in the medium term, and the price may decline [40]. - **Egg**: The price may rebound, but it is not a reversal due to the release of production capacity [41]. - **Cotton**: The international and domestic cotton markets are weak due to insufficient demand. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - **Sugar**: The U.S. sugar price is in a downward trend, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The market demand is decreasing, and the trading focus is on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The supply is expected to be low, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider buying on significant pullbacks [46]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market price has increased, but the increase is lower than expected. The spot volume is good, and the 08 contract needs more substantial negative news to decline further [20]. - **Urea**: The agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. The market is expected to fluctuate and correct in the short term [24]. - **Methanol**: The supply may be affected by the situation in the Middle East. The short - term price is strong, but there is a risk of decline in the medium term [25]. - **Styrene**: The cost - side is the main driver, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable [26]. - **Glass**: The production and sales in Shahe are improving, but the overall inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with caution [32]. - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The supply is increasing, the demand is warming up, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and NR and be bullish on BR [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is accumulating, the supply is under high pressure, and the long - term strategy is to be bearish at high prices [34]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The market is in a weak and volatile state, waiting for the clarification of the Israel - Iran situation. It is recommended to allocate dividend assets and pay attention to technology - growth opportunities [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price is rising, and the short - term bullish trend is expected to continue [48].