1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The plastic price is expected to show a strong - side fluctuating trend. Although the domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, the downstream shows resistance to high prices and the spot trading enthusiasm is not high. The situation in the Middle East is changeable, which affects the supply and price of plastics. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream enterprises after the festival and the development of the Middle East situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1行情分析 (Market Analysis) - On March 31, the plastic operating rate remained at around 80%, at a relatively low level. As of the week of March 27, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 2.16 percentage points to 39.75% week - on - week, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday normal level. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory has decreased and is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1]. - The conflict in the Middle East still exists, the possibility of a cease - fire agreement between the US and Iran is low, the risk of crude oil supply interruption has not been eliminated, and the crude oil price remains high. New production capacities of Basf (Guangdong) FDPE and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no new production capacity plans in the first quarter. The plastic operating rate has been declining recently [1]. - After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work in downstream factories increased, and the rigid demand was released intensively. During the spring plowing season, the prices of agricultural films in North, East, and South China continued to rise. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices, and the spot trading enthusiasm is not high. The non - navigation of the Strait of Hormuz still brings the expectation of reduced plastic supply [1]. 3.2期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market Conditions) - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract decreased in position, fluctuated, and declined. The lowest price was 8,511 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,916 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8,614 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 4.48%. The position decreased by 24,962 lots to 299,225 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 300 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 8,380 - 9,370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 10,100 - 11,510 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,400 - 9,840 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Tracking) - **Supply**: On March 31, there were little changes in the shutdown devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 80%, at a relatively low level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of March 27, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 2.16 percentage points to 39.75% week - on - week. After the fifth week of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises resumed production one after another, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday normal level, showing seasonal changes in the overall PE downstream operating rate [4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 850,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons higher than the same period in the lunar calendar last year, and currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell to $107/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by $60/ton to $1,500/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also increased by $60/ton to $1,500/ton week - on - week [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term due to geopolitical situation, increased domestic supply in March, lower - than - expected restart of downstream polyester enterprises, and decreased procurement willingness [3]. - Ethylene glycol may face direct risks of overseas supply interruption, which will break the current loose supply - demand pattern. The inventory at the main ports is expected to start de - stocking in the second half of the month, and continuous attention should be paid to overseas situations and device changes [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PTA - **Main Contract**: On March 12, the PTA main futures contract TA605 rose 4.42%, and the basis was - 14 yuan/ton, +2 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price of PTA in East China today is 7040 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil on the cost side fluctuated after reaching a high and dropped to around $96 per barrel. PTA capacity utilization decreased by 1.93% to 78.40% compared to the previous working day, and the PTA factory inventory was 5.94 days, +0.59 days compared to last week's 5.35 days [3]. - **Main Force Movements**: Short - side main forces reduced their positions [3]. - **Trend Expectation**: In the short term, the geopolitical situation dominates the phased fluctuations of the energy - chemical sector. With a significant increase in domestic supply in March, the restart of downstream polyester enterprises is less than expected, and the procurement willingness decreases due to the rapid price increase, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected that the short - term PTA price will fluctuate following the cost side [3]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Main Contract**: On March 12, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 rose 4.59%, and the basis was - 49 yuan/ton, - 24 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today is 4733 yuan/ton, up 258 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 92.7 tons, a decrease of 4.6 tons compared to the previous period [4]. - **Main Force Movements**: Long - side main forces increased their positions [4]. - **Trend Expectation**: Ethylene glycol may directly face the risk of overseas supply interruption, which will break the current loose supply - demand pattern. It is expected that the inventory at the main ports will start de - stocking in the second half of the month. Currently, the coal - to - chemical profit has been significantly repaired, and the devices are expected to restart. Continuous attention should be paid to overseas situations and device changes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PTA, methanol, urea, LNG, asphalt [27][33][38][42][46] - **Bearish**: L, PVC, MEG, glass, soda ash [15][23][30][51][55] - **Neutral**: Crude oil, LPG, PP, natural gas [1][10][19][42] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude oil**: High - level volatility due to geopolitical factors in the Middle East and potential OPEC+ production increase [1] - **LPG**: High - level volatility following the cost - side oil price, with increasing supply and demand and rising inventory [1] - **L**: Weak performance due to sufficient upstream supply and late downstream resumption [1] - **PP**: Volatility, with cost support from propane and propylene and late downstream resumption [1] - **PVC**: Weak performance due to high inventory and weak supply - demand drivers [1] - **PTA**: Bullish outlook despite slight inventory accumulation, with expected improvement in downstream demand after the holiday [27] - **MEG**: Cautiously bearish in the short - term, but expected improvement in fundamentals in March - April [30] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bearish with a weak current situation but strong expectations [33] - **Urea**: Oscillating strongly with expectations of spring fertilizer use and export opportunities [38] - **LNG**: Price adjustment due to the decline in demand - side support and cost - side support [42] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bullish, following the cost - side oil price with improving supply - demand after the Spring Festival [46] - **Glass**: Oscillating at a low level due to post - holiday inventory accumulation and weak supply - demand [51] - **Soda ash**: Oscillating at a low level with high inventory and weak demand support [55] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight, WTI decreased by 0.32%, Brent slightly increased by 0.21%, and domestic SC decreased by 0.69% [6] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitics dominates the short - term price. Supply is still in surplus, and the price is mainly driven by geopolitical factors. The IEA predicts a global oil supply increase of 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026, and demand growth of 0.85 million barrels per day [7][8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it will oscillate and adjust, with SC focusing on the range of 480 - 495 yuan/barrel [9] 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On February 25, the PG main contract closed at 4,524 yuan/ton, a 1.39% decrease [12] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - side oil price. The supply - demand is bearish with increasing inventory [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price has room for compression. In the short - term, it is affected by geopolitics, with PG focusing on the range of 4,500 - 4,600 yuan/ton [14] 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 6,668 yuan/ton, a 1.6% decrease [16] - **Basic Logic**: Upstream supply is sufficient, and downstream resumption is late, resulting in weak fundamentals [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 6,500 - 6,700 yuan/ton and the downstream resumption rhythm [18] 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 6,675 yuan/ton, a 0.7% decrease [20] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side propane and propylene are strong, and the downstream resumption is late, following the cost in the short - term [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 6,500 - 6,700 yuan/ton and the price changes of propane and propylene [22] 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4,855 yuan/ton, a 2.2% decrease [24] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the price, and the supply - demand drivers are weak [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 4,800 - 5,000 yuan/ton [26] 3.6 PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5,204 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease [27] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is high, with short - term seasonal inventory accumulation but expected improvement in downstream demand after the holiday [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions at high prices and buy on significant pullbacks, with TA05 focusing on 5,180 - 5,310 yuan/ton [29] 3.7 MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 3,678 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan decrease [30] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is low. Supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weak, but expected to improve in March - April [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about short - selling, and lightly establish long positions on dips, with EG05 focusing on 3,650 - 3,750 yuan/ton [32] 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned in a simple closing - price form - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is at a medium level. Domestic production is high, and overseas production is expected to increase. Demand is expected to improve, and inventory is expected to decrease in March [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously bearish, with MA05 focusing on the range of 2,180 - 2,245 yuan/ton [37] 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,833 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease [38] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low. Supply is increasing, and demand has strong expectations of spring fertilizer use and exports [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Expected to oscillate strongly after the holiday, with UR05 focusing on the range of 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [41] 3.10 LNG - **Market Performance**: On February 26, the NG main contract closed at 2.899 dollars/million British thermal units, a 1.13% decrease [43] - **Basic Logic**: Demand support is decreasing, and cost support exists. The price is oscillating and adjusting [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is generally weak but with cost support, with NG focusing on the range of 2.725 - 2.991 dollars/million British thermal units [45] 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On February 26, the BU main contract closed at 3,355 yuan/ton, a 0.03% decrease [48] - **Basic Logic**: The price follows the cost - side oil price, and the supply - demand fundamentals are improving after the Spring Festival [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Valuation is high. Pay attention to raw material imports, and BU focuses on the range of 3,300 - 3,400 yuan/ton [50] 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: FG05 closed at 1,058 yuan/ton, a 0.6% decrease [52] - **Basic Logic**: Post - holiday inventory accumulation, and supply needs to be further reduced to digest high inventory [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Observe the supply reduction intensity, with FG focusing on the range of 1,030 - 1,080 yuan/ton [54] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA05 closed at 1,191 yuan/ton, unchanged [56] - **Basic Logic**: High post - holiday inventory and weak demand support, with expected slight production decline [58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 1,150 - 1,200 yuan/ton and the continuity of maintenance [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Crude oil, LPG, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, asphalt [1][2][3][4][7] - **Bearish**: Glass, soda ash [7] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Natural gas [7] - **Rebound**: L, PP, PVC [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude oil**: Geopolitics dominates oil prices. Before the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is resolved, oil prices are expected to remain strong. The supply is still in surplus, and OPEC+ may continue to increase production in April. Attention should be paid to the changes in US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East [1][10]. - **LPG**: The cost side is favorable, and LPG is expected to fluctuate strongly. The cost side is affected by geopolitical disturbances in the short term, and the supply and demand are both increasing, but the inventory is bearish [1]. - **L**: It is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly after the holiday. The petrochemical inventory is at a five-year low before the holiday, but there is a high de-stocking pressure if the demand recovery is insufficient [1][20]. - **PP**: It is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly after the holiday. The PDH profit is still at a low level, and the cost has support. Attention should be paid to the demand verification and inventory accumulation after the holiday [1][24]. - **PVC**: It is expected to follow the oil price and fluctuate strongly after the holiday, but the upside is still restricted by high inventory. The chlor-alkali comprehensive profit has been repaired, but the supply side is still under pressure [1][27]. - **PTA**: The valuation is relatively reasonable, and it is expected to open higher after the holiday. The supply side has slight changes, the downstream demand is seasonally weak but the post-holiday start-up is expected to improve, and the cost side is affected by the rise in oil prices [2][29]. - **MEG**: The valuation is low, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply side is increasing, the demand side is expected to pick up after the holiday, and the inventory is high but the pressure is expected to be relieved [3][32]. - **Methanol**: The valuation is at the 50.8% quantile in the past three months, and it is cautiously bullish. The domestic methanol plant start-up is slightly declining but still at a high level, the overseas plant load is expected to increase, and the demand side is expected to improve [3][36]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low, and it is cautiously bullish. The overall start-up load is continuously rising, the demand side has weak reality but strong expectations, and there is support from the spring fertilizer use and export expectations [4][40]. - **Natural gas**: The demand side has support, and the gas price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The US temperature has dropped recently, the demand side has support, and the supply side has recovered, with an increase in export volume [7][46]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side has increased, and the asphalt price is expected to be strong after the holiday. The cost side is affected by geopolitical disturbances, the valuation is high, and the supply and demand fundamentals are improving [7][50]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level. The daily melting volume has continuously declined, and attention should be paid to the post-holiday inventory accumulation [7][55]. - **Soda ash**: Attention should be paid to the post-holiday inventory accumulation, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. The real estate demand is weak, the heavy alkali demand support is insufficient, and it is advisable to short on rallies before the maintenance intensifies [7][59]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Oil prices rose during the Spring Festival and slightly declined overnight. WTI slightly decreased by 0.26%, Brent slightly decreased by 0.87%, and the domestic SC had no quotation [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitics dominates oil prices in the short term, and the supply is still in surplus. Before the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is resolved, oil prices are expected to remain strong [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The IEA latest monthly report predicts that the global oil supply increment in 2026 will be 2.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1 million barrels per day compared with last month. The demand is expected to increase by 0.85 million barrels per day, higher than last month's prediction. The US crude oil inventory increased by 8.53 million barrels to 428.82 million barrels in the week ending February 6 [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium and long term, the supply and demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter, and attention should be paid to the production changes in non-OPEC+ regions. In the short term, it will oscillate and adjust, with increased volatility. SC should focus on the range of [480 - 500] [12]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 13, the PG main contract closed at 4,307 yuan/ton, a 0.28% increase. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,500 (+10) yuan/ton, 4,444 (-31) yuan/ton, and 4,740 (-10) yuan/ton respectively [15]. - **Basic Logic**: The price mainly depends on the cost side of oil prices. The short-term oil prices have rebounded due to geopolitical disturbances, which is favorable for the cost side. The supply and demand side is bearish as the downstream chemical demand has weakened and the inventory has increased [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium and long term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to move down. In the short term, the cost side of oil prices has increased uncertainty and is under pressure in the long term. PG should focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,300] [17]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract's basis was -204 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was -65 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: It is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly after the holiday. The petrochemical inventory was at a five-year low before the holiday, but there is a high de-stocking pressure if the demand recovery is insufficient [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: L should focus on the range of [6,650 - 6,850] [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract's basis was 47 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was -25 yuan/ton [23]. - **Basic Logic**: It is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly after the holiday. The PDH profit is still at a low level, and the cost has support. Attention should be paid to the demand verification and inventory accumulation after the holiday [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PP should focus on the range of [6,550 - 6,750] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract's basis was -155 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was -122 yuan/ton [26]. - **Basic Logic**: It is expected to follow the oil price and fluctuate strongly after the holiday, but the upside is still restricted by high inventory. The chlor-alkali comprehensive profit has been repaired, but the supply side is still under pressure [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PVC should focus on the range of [4,800 - 5,000] [27]. PTA - **Market Review**: As of February 13, the TA05 contract closed at 5,204 yuan/ton, at the 81.0% quantile in the past three months. The basis was -74 (+16) yuan/ton, and the TA5-9 spread was 32 (+10) yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has slight changes, the downstream demand is seasonally weak but the post-holiday start-up is expected to improve, and the cost side is affected by the rise in oil prices. PTA will have a slight inventory accumulation in January - February, but the outlook is positive [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and buy on significant pullbacks for the 05 contract. TA05 should focus on the range of [5,250 - 5,500] [30]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract's basis was -103 (-10) yuan/ton, and the EG5-9 spread was -118 (-107) yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low, the supply side is increasing, the demand side is expected to pick up after the holiday, and the inventory is high but the pressure is expected to be relieved. The fundamentals are expected to improve in March - April [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. EG05 should focus on the range of [3,780 - 3,980] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol main contract was at the 50.8% quantile in the past three months, the comprehensive profit was -210.7 (-15.8) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 12 (+42) yuan/ton [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol plant start-up is slightly declining but still at a high level, the overseas plant load is expected to increase, and the demand side is expected to improve. The inventory is expected to decrease in March [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to be strong after the holiday. MA05 should focus on the range of [2,220 - 2,300] [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea main contract closed at 1,833 (-10) yuan/ton, at the 98.4% quantile in the past three months. The comprehensive profit was 126.51 (+7.6) yuan/ton, and the Shandong small particle basis was -23 (+10) yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side pressure is large, but the demand side is expected to improve. There is support from the spring fertilizer use and export expectations. The inventory is continuously decreasing [40][41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to oscillate strongly after the holiday. UR05 should focus on the range of [1,810 - 1,850] [42]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On February 20, the NG main contract closed at 3.010 US dollars per million British thermal units, a 2.07% increase. The US Henry Hub spot was 3.230 (-0.160) US dollars per million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot was 12.048 (+0.096) US dollars per million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was 3,652 (-31) yuan/ton [45]. - **Basic Logic**: The US temperature has dropped recently, the demand side has support, and the supply side has recovered, with an increase in export volume. The gas price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter, the demand side supports the gas price, but the support will gradually decline as the cold winter fades. NG should focus on the range of [2.830 - 3.051] [47]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 13, the BU main contract closed at 3,264 yuan/ton, a 1.89% decrease. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,210 (+0) yuan/ton, 3,290 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3,310 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [49]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is affected by geopolitical disturbances, the valuation is high, and the supply and demand fundamentals are improving. The demand side is expected to gradually recover after the Spring Festival [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high, and the supply side has increased uncertainty. Attention should be paid to the subsequent import of asphalt raw materials. BU should focus on the range of [3,300 - 3,400] [51]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract's basis was -11 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was -97 yuan/ton [54]. - **Basic Logic**: The daily melting volume has continuously declined, and the basis has strengthened. The supply and demand are in a weak balance. Attention should be paid to the post-holiday inventory accumulation [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should focus on the range of [1,020 - 1,070] [55]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract's basis was -45 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was -69 yuan/ton [58]. - **Basic Logic**: Attention should be paid to the post-holiday inventory accumulation. The real estate demand is weak, the heavy alkali demand support is insufficient, and it is advisable to short on rallies before the maintenance intensifies [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should focus on the range of [1,120 - 1,170] [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PTA: As the Spring Festival approaches, polyester production cuts are expanding, and the terminal is gradually on holiday. PTA supply and demand are accumulating, and the spot market negotiation is light. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side before the Spring Festival, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the commodity atmosphere and the changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - MEG: There is still a strong seasonal inventory accumulation expectation for ethylene glycol from January to February, but the medium - term supply - demand structure is moderately improving. Overseas devices have postponed restarts and new maintenance volumes, and the import volume is expected to be revised down in the second quarter. Attention should be paid to the supply stability in the Iranian region. The absolute price of ethylene glycol is at a low level, and there is buying support at the low level. It is expected that the market will maintain a low - range consolidation before the festival [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the report 2.每日提示 - PTA: Yesterday, the PTA futures fluctuated upward, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis fluctuated little. Some mainstream suppliers sold goods. The goods this week were negotiated around 05 - 60~85, with the price negotiation range at 5145~5210. The goods at the end of February were traded at a discount of 57~60 to 05, and the warehouse receipts at the end of February were traded at 05 - 50. The goods in mid - March were traded at a discount of 35 to 05. Today's mainstream spot basis is 05 - 73. The net short position increased, showing a bearish signal. The PTA factory inventory is 3.74 days, a 0.16 - day increase from the previous period, also bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [5][6]. - MEG: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol market rose slightly and then fell back, and the market negotiation was average. In the morning, driven by the news that a 900,000 - ton/year device in Lianyungang stopped for production conversion, the ethylene glycol futures rose slightly, and the on - site negotiation was okay. The mainstream spot negotiation was traded at a discount of 110 - 115 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the afternoon, the ethylene glycol futures fell back and entered a narrow - range shock trend, and the on - site negotiation was light, with the overall trading volume shrinking. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol overseas market rose slightly, and the market negotiation was light. The recent arrival vessels were negotiated and traded at around 436 - 445 US dollars/ton, the vessels arriving at the end of February and early March were negotiated at around 449 - 451 US dollars/ton, and the vessels arriving in early March were traded at around 453 US dollars/ton. The net short position decreased, but still showed a bearish signal. The inventory in East China is 853,000 tons, a 22,000 - ton increase from the previous period, bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, also bearish [7][8]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the report 4.基本面数据 - PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of PX from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory changes, and other indicators [11]. - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the monthly balance data of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering production, import, export, consumption, surplus, and year - on - year changes [12]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly balance data of ethylene glycol from October 2025 to September 2026, including production, import, consumption, surplus, and year - on - year changes [13]. 5.PTA每日观点 - The PTA market is affected by the approaching Spring Festival. With the expansion of polyester production cuts and the terminal on holiday, the supply and demand are accumulating. It is expected that the price will follow the cost side to fluctuate, and the basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the commodity atmosphere and device changes [5]. 6.MEG每日观点 - There is a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation for ethylene glycol in the short term, but the medium - term supply - demand structure is improving. The import volume is expected to decrease in the second quarter. The price is at a low level with buying support, and the market is expected to consolidate in a low range before the festival [7]. 7.影响因素总结 - **L利多因素**: The 700,000 - ton device of Gulei Petrochemical will start maintenance in early March and is expected to last until around the end of April [9]. - **利空因素**: The 1,000,000 - ton PTA device of Nengtou resumed operation last week [10]. - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upward resistance level of the futures price should be noted [10].

Group 1 - Oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI March contract closing at $65.21 per barrel, a monthly increase of 14.51%, and Brent March contract at $70.69 per barrel, up 14.64% [2][41] - The overall trend in January showed a decline followed by a rebound, driven by geopolitical factors [2][41] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remain a significant concern, with any diplomatic breakthroughs appearing unlikely [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surplus in the global oil market this year, with supply exceeding demand by 3.85 million barrels per day, approximately 4% of global demand [5] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted its forecast for 2026 demand growth down by 90,000 barrels to 1.14 million barrels per day [5] - US crude oil production has decreased to 13.7 million barrels per day, with expectations of further declines in the coming weeks [5] Group 3 - Extreme weather events have significantly impacted US oil production, causing a temporary 15% drop in output and leading to price volatility [4] - The market is sensitive to supply disruptions, with risk premiums of $3 to $8 per barrel due to potential interruptions [4] - Current US crude oil inventories stand at 838.753 million barrels, with commercial stocks at 423.754 million barrels, reflecting a 2.08% increase year-on-year [5] Group 4 - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil from Iran is expected to decrease, with January shipments estimated at 900,000 tons, down 300,000 tons month-on-month [7] - Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in China is anticipated to increase significantly, with expected imports of 100,000 tons in January and 105,000 tons in February [7] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to influence oil supply dynamics, with recent disruptions affecting shipping volumes [8] Group 5 - The overall sentiment in the oil market is mixed, with geopolitical uncertainties providing some support for prices while high inventories limit upward movement [6][8] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with short-term fluctuations driven by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [6][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to follow the market sentiment and show a strong and volatile trend in the short - term, driven by low valuation, cold weather and the geopolitical situation in Iran, but the sustainability of the PP rebound should be treated with caution due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and limited spot follow - up [1] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as plastics have new production capacity coming on - stream recently, with a higher operating rate than PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic mulch has not yet started [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 23, the downstream operating rate of PP rebounded 0.34 percentage points month - on - month to 52.87%, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped 0.56 percentage points month - on - month to 42.04%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 29, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 79%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 27.5% [1][5] - Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was depleted rapidly and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cold weather boosted the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns. Coupled with the escalating geopolitical situation in Iran, crude oil prices rose [1] - Recently, the number of maintenance devices increased slightly. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, but as the Spring Festival holiday approached, the operating rate of downstream plastic weaving continued to decline, and new orders were limited [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6780 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6898 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6870 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 1.54%. The open interest increased by 13300 lots to 556684 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions rose. Drawstring was quoted at 6400 - 6910 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 29, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 79%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 27.5% [5] - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the downstream operating rate of PP rebounded 0.34 percentage points month - on - month to 52.87%, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped 0.56 percentage points month - on - month to 42.04%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year [5] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 2.5 tons month - on - month to 47.5 tons, 8.5 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was depleted rapidly and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [5] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 03 rose above 69 US dollars per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 820 US dollars per ton month - on - month [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The heavy oil crack spread can be taken profit, and crude oil can be bought on dips in the shale oil break - even cost range [2] - The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern will improve marginally next year. Although there are still short - term negative pressures, it has the feasibility of buying on dips due to the geopolitical instability in Iran [4] - The current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference of urea has opened the import window, and with the expectation of improved start - up at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectation of urea is coming, so it should be short - allocated on rallies [5] - The chemical sector may fluctuate or decline after the rise. The seasonality of rubber is weak, and it is necessary to guard against the decline of RU. Currently, a neutral - bearish mindset is adopted, with short - term trading on the disk and quick entry and exit. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling mindset should be adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and short - selling RU2609 [10] - The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong domestic supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations, rush - to - export, and strong commodity sentiment support PVC. In the medium term, the idea of short - allocating on rallies should be maintained before substantial production cuts in the industry [14] - The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and profits can be gradually taken [17] - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and there is still room for the PE valuation to decline. In the medium term, with no further production cuts in China, the valuation is expected to be compressed [20] - In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production mismatches. It is advisable to buy on dips the spread between PP5 and PP9 [23] - Currently, PX maintains a high load, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term pattern is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil [25] - PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. In the short term, it is necessary to guard against the risk of processing fee correction, and there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Medium - term attention should be paid to buying on dips opportunities and grasping the rhythm [30] - In the industrial fundamentals of ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory - building and high start - up. The valuation is currently high compared to the same period, and in the medium term, the valuation is expected to be compressed without further production cuts in China [32] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On January 29, 2026, the main INE crude oil futures closed up 11.20 yuan/barrel, a 2.49% increase, at 460.30 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 60.00 yuan/ton, a 2.23% increase, at 2751.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 73.00 yuan/ton, a 2.31% increase, at 3232.00 yuan/ton [1] Methanol - On January 29, 2026, the regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 33 yuan/ton, 7.5 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 12.5 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract increased by 33.00 yuan/ton to 2339 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 65 yuan [3] Urea - On January 29, 2026, the regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Hebei, Hubei, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 49 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 9 yuan/ton to 1799 yuan/ton [5] Rubber - On January 29, 2026, the chemical sector oscillated downward, with butadiene rubber and natural rubber (RU) falling. The sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be due to large - scale allocation of long positions in the chemical sector by macro funds, the expected increase in the cost of naphtha and butadiene due to the expected naphtha consumption tax policy, and the expected reduction in butadiene production, as well as the increase in butadiene exports due to spot demand in South Korea. The inventory at East China ports decreased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber believes that the rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, and the seasonality usually turns upward in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. The short - side believes that the macro - expectations are uncertain, and supply is increasing while demand is in the seasonal off - season [7] PVC - On January 29, 2026, the PVC05 contract increased by 2 yuan to 4913 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4700 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 213 (- 12) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 (+5) yuan/ton. The overall PVC start - up rate was 78.7%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period. The downstream start - up rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 tons (+3.3) [12] Pure Benzene & Styrene - On January 29, 2026, the cost - side East China pure benzene price was 5960 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6130 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price remained unchanged at 7900 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7785 yuan/ton, an increase of 136 yuan/ton; the basis was 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 136 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 69.63%, a decrease of 1.23%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 tons to 9.35 tons. The weighted start - up rate of the three S products was 42.40%, an increase of 0.49%. The PS start - up rate was 57.30%, a decrease of 0.10%, the EPS start - up rate was 58.71%, an increase of 4.65%, and the ABS start - up rate was 66.80%, a decrease of 3.00% [16] Polyethylene - On January 29, 2026, the closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6967 yuan/ton, an increase of 68 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6825 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 142 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton [19] Polypropylene - On January 29, 2026, the closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6778 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6655 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton. The basis was - 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 189 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at - 36 yuan/ton [21][22] PX - On January 29, 2026, the PX03 contract increased by 106 yuan to 7392 yuan, and the PX CFR increased by 21 dollars to 924 dollars. The basis was 37 yuan (+52), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 124 yuan (- 34). The PX load in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decrease from the previous period; the Asian load was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the South Korean GS device restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In January, the export of South Korean PX to China in the first and middle ten - days was 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons. The inventory at the end of November was 446 tons, a 6 - ton increase from the previous month [24] PTA - On January 29, 2026, the PTA05 contract increased by 112 yuan to 5370 yuan, and the East China spot price increased by 10 yuan to 5235 yuan. The basis was - 80 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 6 yuan (- 10). The PTA load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The downstream load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period. The terminal texturing load decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom load decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 23 was 208.3 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 94 yuan to 362 yuan, and the disk processing fee increased by 42 yuan to 521 yuan [27] Ethylene Glycol - On January 29, 2026, the EG05 contract increased by 32 yuan to 3970 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 8 yuan to 3835 yuan. The basis was - 118 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 96 yuan (- 4). The ethylene glycol load was 73%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous period. The downstream load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period. The terminal texturing load decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom load decreased by 6% to 49%. The import arrival forecast was 14.7 tons, and the East China departure was 1.51 tons on January 27. The port inventory was 85.8 tons, a 6.3 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based production profit was - 840 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 534 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 352 yuan. The ethylene price decreased to 700 dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price decreased to 530 yuan [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] - For rubber, it has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] - For ethylene glycol, the industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 4.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.89%, at 444.90 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 34.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.33%, to 2586.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil fell 15.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.48%, to 3087.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.39 million barrels to 422.45 million barrels, a 0.81% increase; SPR increased by 0.21 million barrels to 413.68 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 8.98 million barrels to 251.01 million barrels, a 3.71% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 129.24 million barrels, a 0.02% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.74 million barrels to 24.72 million barrels, a 7.55% increase; and aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.89 million barrels to 43.14 million barrels, a 2.03% decrease [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2273 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 17 yuan [5][10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 61 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 13 yuan/ton, closing at 1801 yuan/ton [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly, following macro trends. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than the previous week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 3.1 - ton increase from the previous week, a 2.5% increase. The spot prices of some rubber products also changed [12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4868 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 218 (0) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 124 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.7%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 44%, a 0.1% increase. Factory and social inventories increased [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5585 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5648 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of pure benzene widened by 59 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene rose 100 yuan/ton to 7250 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the active styrene contract fell 13 yuan/ton to 7103 yuan/ton. The basis of styrene strengthened by 113 yuan/ton to 147 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, a 0.22% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.17 tons to 10.06 tons. The weighted operating rate of the "Three S" products on the demand side was 40.90%, a 0.11% increase [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 6840 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease. The basis strengthened by 25 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread widened by 6 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6592 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The basis strengthened by 48 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread narrowed by 37 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 132 yuan to 7130 yuan, and PX CFR fell 16 dollars to 881 dollars. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 3). The 3 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX operating rate was 89.4%, a 1.5% decrease, and the Asian operating rate was 80.6%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 tons, a 0.7 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 402 tons, a 5 - ton decrease from the previous month [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 68 yuan to 5048 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 5050 yuan. The basis was - 64 yuan (+6), and the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan (- 8). The PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 200.5 tons, a 2.5 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot and futures processing fees increased [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 50 yuan to 3817 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 3696 yuan. The basis was - 140 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 yuan (+1). The overall supply - side operating rate was 74.4%, a 0.3% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The import arrival forecast was 14.8 tons, and the East China departure was 0.79 tons on January 14. The port inventory was 80.2 tons, a 7.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The profits of different production methods varied, and the cost of some raw materials changed [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].