本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【国内豆油出口增加，远期供需及内外价差情况受关注】2025年1 - 6月，国内豆油出口累计13.8万吨， 较去年同期增加9.8万吨，累计同比增幅240.95%。出口主要增量流向中国香港、韩国、马来西亚、朝鲜 和印度。在美国生物柴油政策支撑下，美豆油走强拉动国际豆油价格上升，而国内豆油供应宽松，出口 窗口因此打开，企业出口贸易机会增多。 短期来看，国内大豆供应宽松，豆油库存处于同期高水平。 截至8月1日，压榨厂豆油库存为111.7万吨，去年同期为112.6万吨，国内豆油最便宜可交割价基差为 - 60元/吨。7月下旬以来，豆油基差止跌，从低点震荡小幅反弹。 远期方面，由于中美关税矛盾未解 决，四季度中国大豆采购存在不确定性。若2025年四季度不采购美国大豆，需警惕2026年2 - 3月大豆供 应紧张。且四季度是豆油需求旺季，要谨慎中期市场情绪对预期的发酵。 美盘豆油中期预计震荡中性 或偏强。今年美国在生物质柴油市场公布新政策45Z和RVO，利于美豆油长期需求格局。虽小型炼厂豁 免问题未解决，会影响价格波动性和阶段需求，但长期需求受产能扩张和政策支持，美 ...

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Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of supply and demand factors, with supply pressure easing but demand data not performing well [3]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [4]. - Copper prices are currently oscillating strongly, mainly supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out, followed by a strategy of shorting on rebounds [10]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and soybean oil prices are all expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure [14][15][17][18]. - Soybean meal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. - Coking coal prices are generally bearish due to loose supply - demand and weakening demand [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, but actual production growth is less than expected. Canadian wildfires have led to a reduction in production, and US oil production is expected to decline [3]. - Demand: Market risk appetite has rebounded, but refined oil demand and inventory data are not good, and the negative impact of the global trade war on the economy has not been fully reversed [3]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate [3]. Urea - Supply: There are temporary inspections in some factories, and daily production has decreased, but the daily production is still around 200,000 tons [4]. - Demand: Market sentiment is weak, agricultural demand is not strong, and compound fertilizer factories are mainly focused on inventory reduction [4]. - Price trend: The price dropped by nearly 2% today, and the market sentiment is expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future [4]. Copper - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to losses. Other regions' copper inventories have decreased due to steel tariffs [9]. - Demand: Apparent consumption has decreased, downstream开工率has declined, and demand is the main factor restricting price increases [9]. - Price trend: Currently oscillating strongly, supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under tariff expectations [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase in June, and the fundamental situation is still one of oversupply [10]. - Demand: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the support for prices is limited [10]. - Price trend: Oscillating around 60,000 yuan, with a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out [10]. Asphalt - Supply: The starting rate has rebounded, and the scheduled production in June is expected to increase [12]. - Demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has fluctuated, and the demand for road asphalt is restricted by funds [12]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. PP - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, increasing supply [13][14]. - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, new orders are limited, and inventory pressure is high [13][14]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation [15]. - Demand: Downstream开工率is at a low level, and new orders are slow to follow up, with high inventory pressure [15]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - Supply: The starting rate has increased, and social inventory is still high [16][17]. - Demand: Downstream开工率has declined, and export is affected by policies. Demand improvement is limited [16][17]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The inventory of imported soybeans has increased, and the soybean crushing volume is at a historical high, with high inventory [18]. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and downstream stocking willingness is low [18]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [19][20]. - Demand: The weather in the United States is favorable for soybean growth, and the supply outlook is good [19]. - Price trend: Expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The customs clearance volume remains high, and the total inventory is at a high level [21]. - Demand: Steel mills' demand for coking coal has decreased, and terminal demand has weakened [21]. - Price trend: Generally bearish [21].