北京时间10月10日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格偏强运行，今日开盘报10829.5美元/吨，现报每 吨10809美元/吨，涨幅0.30%，盘中最高触及10833.5美元/吨，最低下探10772.5美元/吨。 更新时间： LME铜期货行情回顾： 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铜 10652.0 11000.0 10591.0 10776.5 0.74% 【铜市场消息速递】 10月9日，电解铜现货沪伦比值为7.98，进口盈亏：-1166.87元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-528.49元/ 吨。 10月9日，上期所铜期货仓单29703吨，环比上个交易日增加2880吨。 10月9日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜注册仓单131050吨。注销仓单8425吨，增加300吨。铜库存 139475吨，增加275吨。 10月9日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货行情 ...

北京时间9月30日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格高位震荡，今日开盘报10430.5美元/吨，现报每吨 10365美元/吨，跌幅0.61%，盘中最高触及10440美元/吨，最低下探10352.5美元/吨。 【铜市场消息速递】 更新时间： 9月29日，电解铜现货沪伦比值为8.02，进口盈亏：-564.17元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-675.54元/吨。 LME铜期货行情回顾： 9月29日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜注册仓单134025吨。注销仓单9875吨，减少450吨。铜库存 143900吨，减少500吨。 9月29日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铜 10237.0 10450.0 10213.0 10428.5 2.19% 9月29日，上期所铜期货仓单25603吨，环比上个交易日减少954吨。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices experienced high volatility, opening at $10,300 per ton and currently at $10,302.5 per ton, with a decline of 0.17% [1] - The intraday trading range for copper futures included a high of $10,333.5 per ton and a low of $10,254 per ton [1] Group 2 - On September 24, LME copper futures opened at $9,980.0, reached a high of $10,364.0, a low of $9,927.5, and closed at $10,320.0, reflecting a 3.27% increase [2] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 8.03, with an import loss of -108.53 yuan per ton, compared to -78.71 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of September 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper futures warehouse receipts at 27,419 tons, a decrease of 308 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 133,000 tons, with 11,775 tons canceled, a reduction of 100 tons, and total copper inventory at 144,775 tons, down by 200 tons [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The Fed's September FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the median dot plot implies a total of 3 rate cuts this year and 1 next year. The TC/RC fees remain weakly stable, and the factory seasonal maintenance plan will lead to production cuts in September and October. The supply of refined copper remains tight. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved, but the realization of the peak - season expectation remains to be seen. The SHFE inventory has started to accumulate. Overall, after the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was realized, the previous gains were partly given back, but the fundamentals are still tight. The domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, which will support the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips moderately [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The previous trading of the Fed's 50bp interest - rate cut expectation led to a price increase, and after the cut of 25bp was realized, part of the gains were given back. The fundamentals are tight. The domestic copper production is expected to be significantly affected by the reduction of scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support the copper price. With the approaching of the double festivals, downstream stocking will increase, so it is advisable to buy on dips moderately [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower with a gap and fluctuated weakly, closing at 79,620 yuan/ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China and South China is 60 yuan/ton. On September 167, 2025, the LME official price was 9,963 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 69 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of September 12, the spot TC was - 41.42 dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.16 cents/pound. The 8 - month SMM China electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply [1][7] Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 32,500 tons, a decrease of 822 tons from the previous period. As of September 15, the Shanghai bonded area copper inventory is 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 148,900 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 312,800 short tons, a decrease of 26 short tons from the previous period [11]

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，近期伦铜库存呈区间波动格局，上周库存有所回落，最新库存水平为153,950吨，降至逾一个月新低。 上海期货交易所最新公布数据显示，9月12日当周，沪铜库存有所回升，周度库存增加14.91%至94,054吨，增至两个半月新高。国际铜库存增加2192吨至 14,144吨。 上周，纽铜库存继续累积，最新库存水平为310,487吨，增至2003年8月中旬以来新高。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 以下为2025年8月以来三大交易所铜库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | COMEX | LME | SHFE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/12 | 310, 487 | 153, 950 | 94, 054 | | 2025/9/11 | 309, 834 | 154, 175 | | | 2025/9/10 | 308, 706 | 155, 050 | | | 2025/9/9 | 307, 696 | 155, 275 | | | 8/6/9202 | 305, 779 | 155, ...

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices are experiencing a downward trend, opening at $9,972 per ton and currently trading at $9,927.5 per ton, reflecting a decline of 0.47% [1] - On September 3, LME copper futures opened at $10,018, reached a high of $10,038, and closed at $9,974, marking a decrease of 0.39% [2] - The current spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai-London is 8.06, with an import loss of -53.18 yuan per ton, a significant change from the previous day's import profit of 316.06 yuan per ton [2] Group 2 - As of September 3, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper warehouse receipts at 19,471 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts stand at 145,050 tons, with canceled receipts increasing by 450 tons to 13,525 tons; total copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 158,575 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a current price of $9,969 per ton, reflecting a slight decline of 0.12% from the opening price of $10,018 per ton [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Performance - On September 2, LME copper futures opened at $9,896 per ton, reached a high of $10,015 per ton, a low of $9,844 per ton, and closed at $10,013.5 per ton, marking a 1.40% increase [1] - The intraday trading on September 3 saw copper prices peak at $10,038 per ton and dip to $9,965 per ton [1] Group 2: Market Indicators - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 8.08, with an import profit and loss of 316.06 yuan per ton, up from 217.18 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] - The SHFE warehouse report indicated a decrease of 699 tons in copper futures warehouse receipts, bringing the total to 19,501 tons, with all reductions occurring in Guangdong warehouses, while Shanghai and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Group 3: LME Copper Inventory - As of September 2, LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 145,700 tons, with canceled receipts at 13,075 tons, reflecting a decrease of 100 tons [1] - The total copper inventory at LME was reported at 158,775 tons, also showing a reduction of 100 tons [1]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices experienced a significant increase, opening at $9,896 per ton and currently trading at $9,922.5 per ton, reflecting a rise of 0.48% [1] - The intraday trading range for copper futures saw a high of $9,942 per ton and a low of $9,888 per ton [1] - On September 1, LME copper futures closed at $9,875 per ton, down by 0.31% from the previous day [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 8.06, indicating an import profit and loss of 217.18 yuan per ton, down from 272.08 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of September 1, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper futures warehouse receipts at 20,200 tons, a decrease of 1,212 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 145,700 tons, with canceled receipts at 13,175 tons, an increase of 125 tons, while total copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 158,875 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may mainly show a volatile and slightly stronger market, with small price fluctuations and limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [4][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In August, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, ranging from 77,950 yuan/ton to 79,840 yuan/ton. The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with an operating range of about 9,575 - 9,914 US dollars/ton [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - **Fed Rate Cut Imminent**: Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut at the next monetary policy meeting on September 16 - 17, 2025, and expects further rate cuts in the next three to six months. As of August 29, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September is 86.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 13.8% [2][12][33]. - **Narrowed Decline in Profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size**: From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%, with the decline narrowing. Profits in different industries showed different trends [14]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Decrease in Refined Copper Production Month - on - Month**: As of July 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14%. As of August 22, 2025, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 4.14 cents/pound, and the smelting fee was - 41.32 US dollars/kiloton [16]. - **Reduction in the Price Difference between Refined and Scrap Copper**: As of August 29, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaom was 79,355 yuan/ton, the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 72,850 yuan/ton, and the price difference was - 780 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Month - on - Month Decline in Copper Product Output**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. As of July 2025, the cumulative monthly investment in power grid construction was 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [24]. 3.5 Inventory Side - **Continuous Inventory Accumulation of COMEX Copper**: As of August 29, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 79,748 tons, a decrease of 1,950 tons from the previous week. As of August 28, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 157,950 tons, an increase of 1,850 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 8.26%. The COMEX copper inventory was 275,226 tons, an increase of 1,459 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 83,300 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [29]. 3.6 Outlook - **Analysis of Price Trend Factors**: Key factors affecting copper prices include Chinese economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, inventory, etc. Among them, Chinese economic policies, US policies, and supply - side refined copper processing fees have a relatively large impact [32]. - **Market Outlook**: Considering various factors, copper prices may mainly show a volatile and slightly stronger market, with small price fluctuations and limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [34].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（8.25~8.29） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡上涨，沪铜主力合约下上涨0.91%，收报于79410元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价, 美国关税再起波澜，全球不稳定因素仍存。国内方面，消费将进入旺季季，目前来看下游消费意愿一 般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存158900吨，上周 变化不大，上期所铜库存较上周减1950吨至79748吨。 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | 中国 ...