AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 据路透社报道，美联储似乎终于扭转了长达三年的空前亏损局面，这些亏损与新冠疫情后其实施的货币 政策密切相关。 疫情期间的购债狂潮 为稳定金融体系并提供额外经济刺激，美联储大量购买国债和抵押贷款债券以压低长期借贷成本。这使 其资产持有规模增加了一倍多，到2022年夏季达到9万亿美元的峰值。 2022年，就在美联储资产持有量触顶的同一年，挑战随之而来。飙升的通胀压力迫使美联储从2022年初 开始大幅加息，导致其收入与维持利率所需支付给银行的资金之间出现越来越大的错配。 降息在很大程度上终结了美联储的亏损——这意味着为维持联邦基金利率目标区间，其向银行支付的成 本有所降低。美联储的联邦基金利率在2023年达到5.25%至5.5%的峰值后，目前维持在3.75%至4%。鉴 于官员们对就业市场状况的担忧，美联储未来可能进一步降息。 11月5日以来，美联储所谓的递延资产（deferred asset）规模已出现缩减，从2438亿美元降至11月26日 的2432亿美元。这一变动虽小，却是长期趋势中的明确转折。 美联储观察人士尚不清楚填递延资产并再次向财政部返款需多长时间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing fluctuations against the US dollar (USD) due to policy divergence, economic fundamentals, and commodity currency characteristics, with current trading around 0.6485 after a retreat from a high of 0.6580, yet still within a rebound range since 2025 [1] Policy Divergence - The core logic driving the AUD/USD exchange rate is the policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate of 5.25%-5.5%, with October's core PCE inflation at 3.5%, leading to a strong support for the USD as market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 are pushed back [1] - In contrast, the RBA's cautious policy stance, with current rates slightly above 0.5% and October's CPI at 5.4%, reflects growing concerns over economic growth, resulting in a cooling of rate hike expectations. This divergence has widened the 10-year government bond yield spread to -130 basis points, contributing to capital outflows and suppressing the AUD [1] Economic Fundamentals - The economic fundamentals further amplify exchange rate volatility. The US economy shows resilience with a 2.9% year-on-year GDP growth in Q3 and better-than-expected durable goods orders, although manufacturing remains weak, limiting the USD's upside potential [1] - Australia faces challenges with its reliance on resource exports, which account for over 60% of its economy. The November manufacturing PMI declined, and the service sector's expansion could not fully offset industrial weakness, compounded by fluctuating demand from China, its largest trading partner, which further weakens the AUD's fundamental support [2] Technical Analysis - Technically, the AUD/USD is in a corrective phase after a rebound, having risen from the 0.6350 range to a high of 0.6580, but recently fell below the 20-day moving average support, entering a consolidation range of 0.6450-0.6520. The 14-day RSI has dropped to 48, indicating a neutral to bearish trend, while the MACD shows a reduction in bullish momentum without a clear reversal signal [3] - Key support levels are focused on the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6480 and the psychological level of 0.6450. A breach could lead to further declines towards the 0.6430-0.6450 support zone. Resistance is concentrated in the 0.6520-0.6540 range, with a breakthrough needed to alleviate the current downward pressure. Long-term, the AUD/USD remains in an upward trend initiated in 2020, with potential for a new upward cycle if it breaks the 14-year resistance trend line established since 2011 [3]