澳元兑美元向上试探云顶（0.6512）的走势多次被日图kijun-sen（基准线，0.6522）压制，这导致价格 下探云底（0.6474，同时也是0.6419至0.6568上涨波段的斐波那契61.8%回撤位），截至目前该位置仍抑 制着下行势头。只要价格维持在云层区间内，预计不会出现明确的方向信号，但日图上不断增强的正面 动能、即将从超卖区域走出的随机指标，以及趋于收敛的日图tenkan-sen（转换线）与kijun-sen（基准 线）试图形成金叉，都指向略微偏向多头的排列。多头情景为突破云顶和基准线，这将为冲击0.6568 （8月14日高点）打开空间，并可能进一步触及2025年高点（7月24日创下的0.6625）。相反，若持续跌 破云底，将下探0.6450（100日均线）和0.6419（8月1日低点）等支撑位。 周二（8月26日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元下跌，目前交投于0.64附近，截止北京时间11:20分，澳元/美元 报价0.6474，下跌0.06%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6478。市场预期澳大利亚央行可能在11月开启 宽松周期，并可能采取高达50个基点的降息，反映出对本国经济增长动能放缓的持续担忧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has experienced a slight decline against the US dollar (USD), primarily due to reduced market activity as the weekend approaches, leading to cautious trading behavior among investors [1]. Exchange Rate Movement - The AUD/USD exchange rate fell by 0.03% to 0.6520, retreating from a high of 0.6527 earlier in the week [1]. - The current exchange rate is slightly above the 55-day moving average of 0.6511, which provides temporary support [3]. Monetary Policy Expectations - The market is focused on the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut to address economic slowdown [3]. - Recent economic data from Australia indicates weakened domestic growth, with consumption and investment growth below expectations, and signs of cooling in the job market [3]. Potential Impacts of Rate Cuts - A rate cut by the RBA could exert downward pressure on the AUD, as lower interest rates reduce the yield on AUD assets, potentially leading to capital outflows [4]. - If the RBA's rate cut exceeds market expectations or signals a more accommodative policy, the AUD may experience further declines; conversely, if the RBA maintains rates or suggests limited future cuts, the AUD could rebound [4]. US Federal Reserve Developments - The appointment of Stephen Moore as a temporary member of the Federal Reserve Board may influence market perceptions of the Fed's policy independence and stability [5]. - If Moore advocates for policies aligned with the Trump administration's economic philosophy, it could decrease the attractiveness of the USD, indirectly supporting the AUD [5]. Factors Influencing AUD/USD Exchange Rate - The AUD/USD exchange rate is influenced by interest rate differentials, economic fundamentals, and global risk sentiment [6]. - A rate cut by the RBA, coupled with a stable or increasing rate from the Fed, could widen the interest rate differential unfavorably for the AUD [6]. - The performance of global commodity markets, particularly prices of iron ore and coal, significantly impacts the AUD, as it is a commodity currency [6].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has recently fluctuated within a narrow range, hovering around 64-65 cents, but has risen to nearly 66 cents, marking a nine-month high according to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) [1] - The AUD/USD exchange rate has recovered all losses from Monday, currently trading close to 0.66, the highest level since November 2024 [1][3] - The rise in the AUD against the USD is supported by improved risk appetite, evidenced by stock market gains and stable performance in U.S. Treasury auctions [3] Group 2 - Despite the short-term upward trend for the AUD/USD, several key events in the coming weeks could lead to significant declines, such as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in June and the expiration of the U.S. "trade truce" on August 1 and August 12 [3] - Factors that may push the USD higher in the coming days include the upcoming U.S. CPI report, which could show a greater impact of tariffs on goods inflation, delaying market expectations for a rate cut in September [3] - Following the announcement of a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada by U.S. President Trump, the AUD began to decline after reaching its highest point since November 2024, dropping 0.3% as the USD strengthened [3] Group 3 - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have significantly cooled, dropping from 116% on July 2 to 72% currently [5] - According to Westpac's morning market report, the market currently anticipates an over 80% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower the cash rate from 3.85% by 25 basis points at the next meeting on August 12, with an expectation of approximately three total rate cuts in this easing cycle [5]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar has experienced a decline of 1% against the US dollar, currently trading at 0.6387 [1]