从全年走势来看，铜价上涨趋势更为明显，截至12月30日15时40分，2025年以来LME三个月期铜、沪 铜期货主力连续合约累计涨幅分别达到42.34%、32.97%。 对于2025年铜价的整体走势，业内人士也进行了复盘。混沌天成研究院有色组分析师周蜜儿表示，2025 年铜价因宏观和矿端因素影响而波动明显，但整体呈现上升趋势，其中上半年主要受关税预期主导，下 半年市场则转向供应风险交易。 一德期货有色金属分析师王伟伟则进一步表示："2025年铜精矿供给紧张是推动铜价上行的核心原因， 而美国关税政策的冲击加剧了铜价的大幅波动，溢价导致的虹吸效应又进一步加剧了非美地区精铜库存 的紧张。" （原标题：多因素助推铜价迭创历史新高） "错过了上车金银的机会，或许买铜是一种补救方式。"近期，一则投资者的发帖在市场中引发共鸣。在 金银价格迭创历史新高之际，铜市已然接棒，开启"狂飙"模式，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜累 计涨超40%，成为2025年大宗商品市场耀眼的明星之一。 这轮铜价的强势上行，不仅带动期货市场价格屡创新高，更传导至股市相关板块，带动产业链个股走 强，全球范围内的"抢铜狂潮"就此拉开序幕。展望2026年 ...

"错过了上车金银的机会，或许买铜是一种补救方式。"近期，一则投资者的发帖在市场中引发共鸣。在 金银价格迭创历史新高之际，铜市已然接棒，开启"狂飙"模式，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜累 计涨超40%，成为2025年大宗商品市场耀眼的明星之一。 这轮铜价的强势上行，不仅带动期货市场价格屡创新高，更传导至股市相关板块，带动产业链个股走 强，全球范围内的"抢铜狂潮"就此拉开序幕。展望2026年，多位业内人士认为，宏观环境、供需格局等 因素有望支撑铜价进一步上行。 股期标的同步飙升 从2025年11月下旬开始，铜价正式开启加速上涨模式，价格迭创历史新高。数据显示，12月29日， LME三个月期铜价格盘中一度触及12960美元/吨的历史新高。与此同时，近期，沪铜期货主力合约价格 在突破10万元/吨的关键关口后进一步攀升，最高触及102660元/吨。 期货市场的亮眼表现同步传导至股市，有色金属板块成为年度热门赛道之一。数据显示，截至12月30日 收盘，申万一级有色金属行业指数2025年累计涨超92%；成分股方面，紫金矿业累计涨超125%，洛阳 钼业累计涨超202%，江西铜业累计涨超153%，多只龙头个股实现股价翻倍。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing fluctuations against the US dollar (USD) due to policy divergence, economic fundamentals, and commodity currency characteristics, with current trading around 0.6485 after a retreat from a high of 0.6580, yet still within a rebound range since 2025 [1] Policy Divergence - The core logic driving the AUD/USD exchange rate is the policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate of 5.25%-5.5%, with October's core PCE inflation at 3.5%, leading to a strong support for the USD as market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 are pushed back [1] - In contrast, the RBA's cautious policy stance, with current rates slightly above 0.5% and October's CPI at 5.4%, reflects growing concerns over economic growth, resulting in a cooling of rate hike expectations. This divergence has widened the 10-year government bond yield spread to -130 basis points, contributing to capital outflows and suppressing the AUD [1] Economic Fundamentals - The economic fundamentals further amplify exchange rate volatility. The US economy shows resilience with a 2.9% year-on-year GDP growth in Q3 and better-than-expected durable goods orders, although manufacturing remains weak, limiting the USD's upside potential [1] - Australia faces challenges with its reliance on resource exports, which account for over 60% of its economy. The November manufacturing PMI declined, and the service sector's expansion could not fully offset industrial weakness, compounded by fluctuating demand from China, its largest trading partner, which further weakens the AUD's fundamental support [2] Technical Analysis - Technically, the AUD/USD is in a corrective phase after a rebound, having risen from the 0.6350 range to a high of 0.6580, but recently fell below the 20-day moving average support, entering a consolidation range of 0.6450-0.6520. The 14-day RSI has dropped to 48, indicating a neutral to bearish trend, while the MACD shows a reduction in bullish momentum without a clear reversal signal [3] - Key support levels are focused on the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6480 and the psychological level of 0.6450. A breach could lead to further declines towards the 0.6430-0.6450 support zone. Resistance is concentrated in the 0.6520-0.6540 range, with a breakthrough needed to alleviate the current downward pressure. Long-term, the AUD/USD remains in an upward trend initiated in 2020, with potential for a new upward cycle if it breaks the 14-year resistance trend line established since 2011 [3]