1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The operating range of rebar may be between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil may be between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in the profit rate of steel enterprises [3] - Recently, iron ore prices have been running strongly, and the short - term trend is dominated by coking coal. The weakening of coking coal prices due to domestic supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policies and the resumption of Mongolian coal shipments provides support for iron ore prices by repairing steel mill profits. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are balanced, with high - level fluctuations in shipments and stable hot metal production. The structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, strong spot prices, and a widening basis. Macroeconomically, the expectation of a US interest rate cut has been revised, increasing the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a stock market rebound and a recovery in market risk appetite [22] - The main coking coal contract has been continuously hitting new lows recently, and the support at the lower edge of the shock range is being tested. If it is broken, the wide - range shock pattern that has lasted for a quarter may end. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are weakening. The domestic mine production is stable. The import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal also has a price advantage, resulting in a marginal relaxation of the overall coking coal supply. On the demand side, due to the high spot price and the increasing expectation of coke price cuts, downstream procurement is cautious, leading to a marginal accumulation of upstream mine inventory. In the short term, the spot price will still be under pressure. In the medium - term, the bottom support for coking coal is relatively clear. On the one hand, there is still a rigid demand for winter storage, and price corrections will stimulate restocking demand. On the other hand, the macro - policy expectations in the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the "anti - deflation" policy will build a bottom support for far - month contracts [31] - Ferroalloys are facing the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. With the impact of supply - guarantee policies on coking coal prices, the cost center may shift downwards. However, the supply side maintains a trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [47] - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is solid, the valuation lacks upward elasticity without a trend - like production cut. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, with relatively stable daily melting. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [60] - Unexpected cold repairs of glass production lines have begun to increase, and the expectation of cold repairs in December has resurfaced, but the implementation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the pricing and expectation of far - month contracts. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key is whether there is still an expectation of price cuts in Hubei. In reality, the glass spot market is weak, with continuous price cuts in Hubei and Shahe, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is under great pressure and is prone to negative feedback. Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract is at a high level, and the game may continue until near the delivery [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,154 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the 05 contract was 3,288 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The rebar 01 - 05 spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 spread was 14 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on November 28, 2025, was 3,291 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 140 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 12 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on November 28, 2025, unchanged from the previous day; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also unchanged [19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 794 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 768 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 09 contract was 743.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production on November 28, 2025, was 234.68 thousand tons, down 1.6 thousand tons from the previous week. The 45 - port desilting volume was 3.3058 million tons, up 0.66 million tons from the previous week. The global shipment volume was 3.2784 billion tons, down 238 million tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On November 28, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 154 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 223 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The盘面 coking profit was - 50 yuan/ton, down 20.422 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal on November 28, 2025, was 1,580 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan from the previous week. The spot price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The immediate coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 60 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 36 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48] - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 224 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [49] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,235 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,303 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,177 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [61] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The heavy soda ash market price in North China on November 28, 2025, was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The difference between heavy and light soda ash in North China was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [61] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,223 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,053 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [85] - **Daily Sales Data**: On November 27, 2025, the sales rate in Shahe was 229, in Hubei was 174, in East China was 110, and in South China was 103 [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly. Although there is no substantial improvement in downstream consumption, there is an expectation of crude steel production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate subsequently [3]. - The current iron ore market has a loose supply - demand balance, and prices are supported by macro - expectations. After the impact of macro events subsides, iron ore prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [23]. - Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and the spot market is tight. Coke prices may be strong in the short term, but potential negative feedback risks from the steel industry will limit the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. - Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand. There is a large de - stocking pressure, and the black negative feedback risk is increasing [52]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. With high - level supply expectations and high inventories, the upside potential is limited, but there is cost support at the bottom [62]. - After the price cut of glass, sales have improved, but the high inventory of the middle - stream is being depleted slowly. If there is no real production cut, the price of the 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, while there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures prices and spreads**: On October 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, most steel futures contract prices increased, and some spreads changed. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3133 yuan/ton, up from 3091 yuan/ton on October 28 [4]. - **Spot prices and basis**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. The basis of some contracts decreased, such as the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai, which decreased from 129 yuan/ton on October 28 to 107 yuan/ton on October 29 [9]. - **Other ratios**: Ratios such as the volume - rebar difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio remained relatively stable [16][20]. Iron Ore - **Price data**: On October 29, 2025, iron ore futures contract prices increased compared with the previous day, while the basis of some contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract closing price was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the 01 basis decreased by 3 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental data**: The average daily hot - metal production decreased slightly, the 45 - port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 14423.59 tons, and the global shipping volume increased slightly [29]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Disk prices and spreads**: Coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spreads changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread increased by 9.5 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [40]. - **Spot prices and profits**: Coking coal and coke spot prices in different regions increased, and some import and production profits changed. The immediate coking profit increased from - 55 yuan/ton on October 28 to - 10 yuan/ton on October 29 [41]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - iron data**: Silicon - iron basis, spreads, and spot prices changed. The silicon - iron basis in Ningxia decreased by 30 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [53]. - **Silicon - manganese data**: Silicon - manganese basis, spreads, and spot prices also changed. The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 62 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [55]. Soda Ash - **Disk prices and spreads**: Soda ash contract prices increased on October 29, 2025, and some spreads changed. The soda ash 01 contract increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a daily increase rate of 1.61% [63]. - **Spot prices**: Soda ash spot prices in different regions remained stable on October 29, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash varied by region [66]. Glass - **Disk prices and spreads**: Glass contract prices increased on October 29, 2025, and some spreads and basis changed. The glass 01 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a daily increase rate of 1.26% [91]. - **Sales data**: The sales in different regions showed fluctuations. For example, the sales in Shahe on October 28 were 159 [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly, and will fluctuate later due to the expected reduction in crude steel production despite the lack of substantial improvement in downstream consumption [3]. - The iron ore market faces pressure from abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand boost. Prices are expected to remain under pressure [21]. - Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and short - term coke prices may be strong, but potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the upside [34]. - Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with significant destocking pressure [50]. - Soda ash is cost - priced. With high - level supply expected in the medium - to - long - term, prices are restricted by high inventories but supported by costs [60]. - Glass sales are weak, with high intermediate inventories. Without real production cuts, the price of the 01 contract may decline, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [87]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of various steel contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3100 yuan/ton, up from 3046 yuan/ton. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils also generally increased slightly [4][9][11]. - **Market Outlook**: Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly in the short - term and then fluctuate due to the expected reduction in crude steel production and the lack of improvement in downstream consumption [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the 01 contract closed at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton. The basis of each contract changed slightly [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The average daily hot - metal output decreased, the 45 - port inventory increased, and the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased [28]. - **Market Outlook**: The iron ore market faces pressure from abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand boost. Prices are expected to remain under pressure [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the coking coal and coke basis and spreads changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 134.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was 204 yuan/ton. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed to some extent [40][41]. - **Market Outlook**: Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and short - term coke prices may be strong, but potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the upside [34]. Ferroalloys - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the basis and spreads of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese changed. For example, the ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese 01 - 05 spread was - 42 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly [51][53]. - **Market Outlook**: Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with significant destocking pressure [50]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1337 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts also changed [61]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash is cost - priced. With high - level supply expected in the medium - to - long - term, prices are restricted by high inventories but supported by costs [60]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts increased slightly compared to October 24. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1246 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [88]. - **Market Outlook**: Glass sales are weak, with high intermediate inventories. Without real production cuts, the price of the 01 contract may decline, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [87].