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黑色产业链日报-20251029
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 09:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly. Although there is no substantial improvement in downstream consumption, there is an expectation of crude steel production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate subsequently [3]. - The current iron ore market has a loose supply - demand balance, and prices are supported by macro - expectations. After the impact of macro events subsides, iron ore prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [23]. - Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and the spot market is tight. Coke prices may be strong in the short term, but potential negative feedback risks from the steel industry will limit the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. - Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand. There is a large de - stocking pressure, and the black negative feedback risk is increasing [52]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. With high - level supply expectations and high inventories, the upside potential is limited, but there is cost support at the bottom [62]. - After the price cut of glass, sales have improved, but the high inventory of the middle - stream is being depleted slowly. If there is no real production cut, the price of the 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, while there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures prices and spreads**: On October 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, most steel futures contract prices increased, and some spreads changed. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3133 yuan/ton, up from 3091 yuan/ton on October 28 [4]. - **Spot prices and basis**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. The basis of some contracts decreased, such as the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai, which decreased from 129 yuan/ton on October 28 to 107 yuan/ton on October 29 [9]. - **Other ratios**: Ratios such as the volume - rebar difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio remained relatively stable [16][20]. Iron Ore - **Price data**: On October 29, 2025, iron ore futures contract prices increased compared with the previous day, while the basis of some contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract closing price was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the 01 basis decreased by 3 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental data**: The average daily hot - metal production decreased slightly, the 45 - port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 14423.59 tons, and the global shipping volume increased slightly [29]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Disk prices and spreads**: Coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spreads changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread increased by 9.5 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [40]. - **Spot prices and profits**: Coking coal and coke spot prices in different regions increased, and some import and production profits changed. The immediate coking profit increased from - 55 yuan/ton on October 28 to - 10 yuan/ton on October 29 [41]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - iron data**: Silicon - iron basis, spreads, and spot prices changed. The silicon - iron basis in Ningxia decreased by 30 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [53]. - **Silicon - manganese data**: Silicon - manganese basis, spreads, and spot prices also changed. The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 62 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [55]. Soda Ash - **Disk prices and spreads**: Soda ash contract prices increased on October 29, 2025, and some spreads changed. The soda ash 01 contract increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a daily increase rate of 1.61% [63]. - **Spot prices**: Soda ash spot prices in different regions remained stable on October 29, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash varied by region [66]. Glass - **Disk prices and spreads**: Glass contract prices increased on October 29, 2025, and some spreads and basis changed. The glass 01 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a daily increase rate of 1.26% [91]. - **Sales data**: The sales in different regions showed fluctuations. For example, the sales in Shahe on October 28 were 159 [92].
黑色产业链日报-20251027
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 11:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly, and will fluctuate later due to the expected reduction in crude steel production despite the lack of substantial improvement in downstream consumption [3]. - The iron ore market faces pressure from abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand boost. Prices are expected to remain under pressure [21]. - Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and short - term coke prices may be strong, but potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the upside [34]. - Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with significant destocking pressure [50]. - Soda ash is cost - priced. With high - level supply expected in the medium - to - long - term, prices are restricted by high inventories but supported by costs [60]. - Glass sales are weak, with high intermediate inventories. Without real production cuts, the price of the 01 contract may decline, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [87]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of various steel contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3100 yuan/ton, up from 3046 yuan/ton. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils also generally increased slightly [4][9][11]. - **Market Outlook**: Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly in the short - term and then fluctuate due to the expected reduction in crude steel production and the lack of improvement in downstream consumption [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the 01 contract closed at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton. The basis of each contract changed slightly [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The average daily hot - metal output decreased, the 45 - port inventory increased, and the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased [28]. - **Market Outlook**: The iron ore market faces pressure from abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand boost. Prices are expected to remain under pressure [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the coking coal and coke basis and spreads changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 134.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was 204 yuan/ton. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed to some extent [40][41]. - **Market Outlook**: Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and short - term coke prices may be strong, but potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the upside [34]. Ferroalloys - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the basis and spreads of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese changed. For example, the ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese 01 - 05 spread was - 42 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly [51][53]. - **Market Outlook**: Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with significant destocking pressure [50]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1337 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts also changed [61]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash is cost - priced. With high - level supply expected in the medium - to - long - term, prices are restricted by high inventories but supported by costs [60]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts increased slightly compared to October 24. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1246 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [88]. - **Market Outlook**: Glass sales are weak, with high intermediate inventories. Without real production cuts, the price of the 01 contract may decline, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [87].