黑色产业链日报 2025/11/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, with prices continuing the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to reach an inflection point [2]. - For iron ore, high inventory still suppresses the price. In the short term, the rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin. In the macro vacuum period, the futures price is likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore fundamentals are weak. The short - term ore price will operate within the shock range, with the lower limit between 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is considered that looking for a callback position to do a rebound may have a higher cost - performance ratio than continuing to short. The subsequent overseas situation will be a definite situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and domestic demand - stimulating policies are still expected. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For polysilicon, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Be cautious about the authenticity of long and short news [16]. - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, and the downstream demand is average. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5166 tons to 90327 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 10693 lots to 1.857343 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 12063 tons to 107606 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8957 lots to 1.302507 million lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong and Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coils had weak demand, could not absorb the production, and the inventory showed a counter - seasonal accumulation. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (- 1.50), and the positions decreased by 7106 lots to 494,100 lots. The weighted positions were 910,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.07% [4]. - The Simandou iron ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to reach full production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrivals decreased. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production was 236.88 tons, up 2.66 tons. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with an increase in the utilization rate of some blast furnace capacities. The steel mill profitability continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the short - term rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 13, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium to the futures price of 134 yuan/ton [7]. - The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.29% at 5506 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a discount to the futures price of 6 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the macro environment entered a relative vacuum period, and the pricing of the black sector returned to the fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trading in the black sector, but it was considered a temporary shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for a callback position to do a rebound. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.54% (- 50). The weighted positions increased by 6269 lots to 418,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 205 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 195 yuan/ton [12]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 54195 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.37% (+ 735). The weighted positions increased by 2397 lots to 237,112 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 2045 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, in October, the production continued to increase. In November, the production in the southwest is expected to decline. The demand for polysilicon decreased, and the organic silicon production is expected to be stable. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [13]. - For polysilicon, in November, some production capacities started maintenance, and the production is expected to decline in the last two months. The downstream silicon wafer production is also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1056 yuan/ton, up 0 + 0.67% (+ 7). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 57,921 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 52,810 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 2.06% (+ 25). The Shahe heavy - alkali price was 1194 yuan, up 30. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), including 907,100 tons of heavy - alkali inventory, up 75,000 tons, and 800,200 tons of light - alkali inventory, down 144,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 21,477 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 16,961 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, the downstream support is insufficient, the production enterprise shipment pressure increases, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, the downstream demand is average, especially the consumption of heavy - alkali is weak. Due to the industry - wide losses, some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Overall, the finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the lower end but constrained by inventory at the upper end, expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed of steel and downstream consumption, with the risk of negative feedback due to the decline in the profitability rate of steel enterprises [3]. - Iron ore prices will continue to be weak in the short term. Macroeconomic data in the US and China are weakening, and overseas risk events are reducing market drivers. Fundamentally, supply remains high, port inventories are accumulating, and demand is weak [20]. - Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have been replenishing stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally. In the medium - to - long term, policies restricting coking coal supply and winter storage may affect prices [30]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade in a range as they return to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand after the macro - sentiment fades, but are supported by costs [45]. - Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. - Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3025 yuan/ton, down from 3044 yuan/ton on November 10. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down from 3252 yuan/ton on November 10 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3228 yuan/ton, up from 3223 yuan/ton on November 10. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, down from 3270 yuan/ton on November 10 [8][10]. - **Spreads**: On November 11, 2025, the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4, the same as on November 10; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also the same as on November 10 [17]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of 01 contract was 763 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from November 10 and 12.5 yuan from November 4 [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 tons, down 2.14 tons week - on - week and 7.32 tons month - on - month. The 45 - port inventory was 14898.83 tons, up 356.35 tons week - on - week and 874.33 tons month - on - month [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1238 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10. The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1680 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10 [34]. - **Market Situation**: Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have replenished stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally [30]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 42 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan from November 10. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from November 10 [45]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 206 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan from November 10. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from November 10 [47]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1292 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1356 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1215 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from November 10 [55]. - **Market Situation**: Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1184 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1261 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1053 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from November 10 [81]. - **Market Situation**: Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's "rate cut + halt to balance sheet reduction" signals a major shift in post - pandemic monetary policy. A December rate cut is likely, but future policies will be more flexible and uncertain due to internal US disputes, data gaps from government shutdowns, and inflation stickiness [1][54] - The eurozone economy shows "strengthened stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." Short - term resilience depends on the service sector, while long - term growth faces challenges such as manufacturing drag, external tariff impacts, and insufficient policy coordination [2][54] - Domestically, the economy in the first three quarters met expectations, showing strong resilience and vitality. Despite pressure on consumption and investment, policies ensure stable growth. Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal stimulus in Q4 will support the economy [2][55] - The real estate market is neutral to bearish as front - end indicators are declining, and it lacks conditions for a quick recovery [6][84] - Steel exports exceeded 10 million tons in September, with plate leading the growth. Exports are expected to remain above 9 million tons per month in Q4 [7][84] - Steel inventories are higher than usual after the National Day, and if the current destocking rate continues, there will be inventory pressure in November and December, weighing on steel prices [7] - Annual crude steel production may be around 950 million tons, a reduction of 50 million tons, with a decline in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production [7] - The auto market has grown rapidly this year, especially the new - energy vehicle sector, but high - base growth will be difficult in the second half of the year [7] - The home appliance market benefited from policies in the peak season but faces a decline in year - end production scheduling and uncertain exports in Q4, with only a slight annual increase [7] - In November, steel prices are under pressure, with limited room for a sharp decline, and are likely to move lower and then consolidate at a low level [7][85] - In October, the iron ore market had a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, with macro factors driving prices up. In November, trading will return to the real - world situation as macro drivers weaken [12][114] - Iron ore supply pressure may ease in November. Demand will continue to decline, and inventory accumulation may slow down or slightly decline. Prices are expected to trade in a range [12][115] - In October, the coking coal and coke market rebounded. In November, as supply increases steadily, demand faces seasonal decline, and inventory may accumulate, the market's fundamental support may weaken [15][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Macro - Fed Cuts Rates as Expected, Domestic Demand Remains Under Pressure - **Market Operation Logic** - **US**: In October, the US economy was under pressure with manufacturing and services "double - pressured." The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and ended balance sheet reduction. Manufacturing was in long - term contraction, services growth slowed sharply, the labor market cooled, and inflation fell more than expected [21][25] - **Eurozone**: In October, the eurozone economy showed "strengthened stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." Services drove economic expansion, while manufacturing recovery was weak. The labor market was stable, and inflation was cooling overall [27][29] - **Domestic**: In Q3, China's GDP grew steadily, with the service sector driving growth. Investment declined, consumption slowed, and exports showed resilience. Price indices showed some recovery, and the PMI indicated stable production [32][50] - **Market Trend Judgment** - Overseas, the Fed's policy shift and future uncertainties will impact the global financial market. The eurozone's economic future depends on key variables. Domestically, Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal stimulus in Q4 will support the economy [54][55] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors** - Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [57] Part 2: Finished Products - Demand Suppresses Prices, Steel Prices Weakly Operate - **Market Operation Logic** - **Real Estate**: The real estate market is neutral to bearish for building materials as investment, sales, and other indicators are declining, and the market is slow to recover [59][60] - **Exports**: In September, steel exports exceeded 10 million tons again, with high - value - added plates leading. Exports are diversifying, and Q4 exports are expected to remain above 9 million tons per month [64] - **Inventory**: Steel inventories are accumulating, which will pressure prices in November and December if the current destocking rate continues [66] - **Crude Steel Production**: Crude steel production is decreasing, and annual production may be around 950 million tons, with rebar production falling and hot - rolled coil production rising [7][70] - **Automobile Market**: The automobile market is growing rapidly, especially the new - energy vehicle sector. However, high - base growth will be difficult in the second half of the year [71][74] - **Home Appliance Market**: Home appliance production scheduling is declining in November. Exports are showing differentiation, and the market may slow down in Q4 with a slight annual increase [75][82] - **Market Trend Judgment** - Steel prices in November are under pressure, with limited room for a sharp decline, and are likely to move lower and then consolidate at a low level [85] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors** - Changes in US trade policy and the introduction of unexpected domestic macro - stimulus policies [87] Part 3: Iron Ore - Macro Enters a Vacuum Period, Market Returns to Reality - **Market Operation Logic** - **Market Review**: In October, the iron ore market had a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, with macro factors driving prices up. The industry reality was weak, but macro expectations were positive [12][89] - **Supply**: In October, imports increased for four consecutive months, and domestic production declined. In November, supply pressure may ease due to Australian mine maintenance and weak prices [92][101] - **Demand**: In October, domestic demand weakened, and exports had limited growth. In November, demand will continue to decline, and restocking demand may support prices [102] - **Inventory**: In October, port inventory accumulated due to strong supply and weak demand. In November, inventory accumulation may slow down or slightly decline [107] - **Market Trend Judgment** - As macro drivers weaken in November, the iron ore market will return to reality. Prices are expected to trade in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/ton for the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures, corresponding to about 100 - 105 US dollars/ton for the overseas market [114][116] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors** - Stability of overseas ore shipments, domestic policy increments, and the speed of steel mill profit decline [118] Part 4: Coking Coal and Coke - Prices Trade in a Range, Pay Attention to Demand Resilience - **Market Operation Logic** - **Market Review in October 2025**: In October, coking coal and coke prices rebounded due to a warm macro - environment and fundamental support [121][123] - **Coking Coal**: Coal production may increase steadily in November. Imports are rising, but demand may decline seasonally, and inventory may accumulate [124][130] - **Coke**: The coke market follows the coking coal market. The key lies in demand, and if steel mills' profits deteriorate further, it will limit price rebounds [16] - **Market Trend Judgment** - In November, the coking coal and coke market's fundamental support may weaken, and prices will trade in a range [16] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors** - Production rhythm of coking coal, coke, and steel, changes in imported coal volume, and demand negative - feedback pressure transmission [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Range operation [6] - Palm oil: Range operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range operation [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [8] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Report's Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and black prices are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, and the coal and coke market is affected by policies and supply concerns. The steel market's price stop depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market has inventory pressure and weak demand. The financial market has different trends for various indexes, and the precious metal market is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets have their own supply and demand characteristics, and the soft commodity and polyester markets also face different situations [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation." The supply has room for impulse, and the demand is weak due to the low level of real estate new construction. Follow-up attention should be paid to four main lines that may trigger price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Driven by multiple news, the price has risen. The market is concerned about demand-side policies, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel: The price is affected by the demand for steel, and the stop of the decline depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with weak demand and increasing inventory pressure. The solution depends on reducing the daily melting volume and the support of policies [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: Different indexes have different trends, and the market is short-term consolidated with increasing bullish sentiment [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Light Industry - Logs: The supply is increasing seasonally, while the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Pulp: The cost support is weakening, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: There is supply pressure, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall is expected to continue range operation [6] - Meal: Supported by trade optimism and the rise of US soybean futures, it is expected to rebound in the short term [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The trading average weight may increase slightly, and the settlement price may rise. The market is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is improving. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [10] - PX: The trade dispute risk is weakening, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand are marginally improved. The price follows the cost [10] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is worrying. The price is suppressed by the inventory pressure [10] - PR: The market may oscillate weakly [10] - PF: The market may be sorted narrowly [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebound [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Uptrend [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Weak oscillation [4] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [4] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [4] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [4] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [4] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [4] - Soybean meal: Rebound [4] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [4] - No. 2 soybeans: Rebound [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Oscillation [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The Fed's rate cut and Sino-US talks this week help boost risk appetite, with a warm macro atmosphere leading to a rebound in commodity prices at low levels [2][3][4][8] - The iron ore market remains in a pattern of loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, and the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse [2] - The coking coal and coke market focuses on whether demand-side policies will be introduced, and the core contradiction lies in the extremely low profit level of steel mills [2] - The steel market's price stop depends on the strict implementation of a production cut of over 5% in Q4 2025 and the intensity of anti-"involution" policies [2] - The glass market has a large inventory accumulation pressure, and the demand is weak overall [2] - The stock index market has a short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [3] - The Treasury bond market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3] - The gold market is affected by central bank gold purchases, debt issues in the US, and geopolitical risks, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] - The log market has a supply increase and a demand decrease, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4] - The pulp market has a weak cost support and poor demand, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [4] - The edible oil market has a sufficient supply and weak demand, and it is expected to continue range-bound operation [4] - The meal market is boosted by trade optimism and US soybean prices, and it is expected to rebound in the short term [4][6] - The live pig market has a slight increase in the average trading weight, and the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [6] - The rubber market has a decrease in inventory, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [8] - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets have different supply and demand situations and are affected by factors such as oil prices and costs, with different investment suggestions [8] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation", and the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse. Follow four main lines to monitor potential price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: The market focuses on demand-side policies, and the core contradiction is the low profit of steel mills. Coke has started the third round of price increases [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: The static valuation is low, and the core lies in steel demand. The price stop depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with high inventory accumulation pressure and weak demand. The daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the overcapacity [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The market has a short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [3] - Treasury bonds: The market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting, and it is affected by central bank purchases, debt issues, and geopolitical risks. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Light Industry - Logs: The supply increases seasonally, and the demand decreases as the downstream enters the off-season. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [4] - Pulp: The cost support is weak, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [4] - Double-offset paper: The supply pressure exists, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [4] Oils and Fats - Oils: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue range-bound operation [4] - Meals: The market is boosted by trade optimism and US soybean prices, and it is expected to rebound in the short term [4][6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight increases slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend due to factors such as demand and supply [6] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The inventory decreases, and the price is expected to oscillate widely due to factors such as production and demand [8] Polyester - PX: The supply and demand have pressure, and the price follows oil prices [8] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand marginally weaken. The price follows costs [8] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the future supply and demand are expected to be in surplus. The price is suppressed by inventory pressure [8] - PR: The cost is boosted by macro news, and the price may rise slightly [8] - PF: The market is expected to be sorted warmly due to downstream demand and policy support [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly. Although there is no substantial improvement in downstream consumption, there is an expectation of crude steel production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate subsequently [3]. - The current iron ore market has a loose supply - demand balance, and prices are supported by macro - expectations. After the impact of macro events subsides, iron ore prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [23]. - Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and the spot market is tight. Coke prices may be strong in the short term, but potential negative feedback risks from the steel industry will limit the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. - Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand. There is a large de - stocking pressure, and the black negative feedback risk is increasing [52]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. With high - level supply expectations and high inventories, the upside potential is limited, but there is cost support at the bottom [62]. - After the price cut of glass, sales have improved, but the high inventory of the middle - stream is being depleted slowly. If there is no real production cut, the price of the 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, while there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures prices and spreads**: On October 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, most steel futures contract prices increased, and some spreads changed. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3133 yuan/ton, up from 3091 yuan/ton on October 28 [4]. - **Spot prices and basis**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. The basis of some contracts decreased, such as the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai, which decreased from 129 yuan/ton on October 28 to 107 yuan/ton on October 29 [9]. - **Other ratios**: Ratios such as the volume - rebar difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio remained relatively stable [16][20]. Iron Ore - **Price data**: On October 29, 2025, iron ore futures contract prices increased compared with the previous day, while the basis of some contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract closing price was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the 01 basis decreased by 3 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental data**: The average daily hot - metal production decreased slightly, the 45 - port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 14423.59 tons, and the global shipping volume increased slightly [29]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Disk prices and spreads**: Coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spreads changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread increased by 9.5 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [40]. - **Spot prices and profits**: Coking coal and coke spot prices in different regions increased, and some import and production profits changed. The immediate coking profit increased from - 55 yuan/ton on October 28 to - 10 yuan/ton on October 29 [41]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - iron data**: Silicon - iron basis, spreads, and spot prices changed. The silicon - iron basis in Ningxia decreased by 30 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [53]. - **Silicon - manganese data**: Silicon - manganese basis, spreads, and spot prices also changed. The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 62 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [55]. Soda Ash - **Disk prices and spreads**: Soda ash contract prices increased on October 29, 2025, and some spreads changed. The soda ash 01 contract increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a daily increase rate of 1.61% [63]. - **Spot prices**: Soda ash spot prices in different regions remained stable on October 29, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash varied by region [66]. Glass - **Disk prices and spreads**: Glass contract prices increased on October 29, 2025, and some spreads and basis changed. The glass 01 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a daily increase rate of 1.26% [91]. - **Sales data**: The sales in different regions showed fluctuations. For example, the sales in Shahe on October 28 were 159 [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term upward logic of steel prices remains unchanged under the background of a gradually loosening macro - environment, but the real demand for steel is still weak in the short term and is difficult to improve substantially. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US talks and overseas macro - environment changes on market sentiment [2]. - The iron ore market is currently weak in reality, with the overall market in a tug - of - war situation, and the ore price will fluctuate [5]. - For the black sector, it is still not pessimistic. It is considered more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do rebounds rather than continue to short. The subsequent height after the rebound needs further observation [9]. - Industrial silicon is subject to real - world constraints and is likely to fluctuate with the commodity environment, with short - term consolidation [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the actual implementation of relevant news [15]. - The glass futures price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend in the short term due to the interweaving of long and short factors [18]. - The soda ash price is expected to continue the narrow - range consolidation pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in device operation and downstream procurement rhythm [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3091 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.29%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3058 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 22644 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3305 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.181%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3296 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8933 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. The output of hot - rolled coils slightly decreased, the demand improved marginally, the inventory was still at a high level, but the de - stocking process accelerated, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability of steel mills has significantly declined recently, and the molten iron output has significantly decreased, reducing the supply - side pressure [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 792.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.76% (+ 6.00), and the positions changed by - 9902 lots to 54.89 million lots. The weighted positions were 92.41 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.15 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.40% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to increase month - on - month in the latest period and was at a high level in the same period. In terms of demand, the daily average molten iron output dropped below 240,000 tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory slightly increased. Overall, the iron ore price is under pressure, and the ore price will fluctuate [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 28, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.21% at 5790 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 120 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed flat at 5564 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 86 yuan/ton [7]. Strategy Viewpoints - There are still supply - constraint expectations for ferroalloys. The current situation of steel mills is gradually becoming obvious, and there is a risk of "negative feedback". For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and its potential driving force may come from the manganese ore end [8][9]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 8955 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.11% (- 10). The weighted contract positions changed by - 1744 lots to 433,386 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 345 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was - 105 yuan/ton [11]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply - side pressure of industrial silicon continues, and the demand support weakens. The cost provides a bottom - support effect. It is easy to fluctuate with the commodity environment and will consolidate in the short term [13]. Polysilicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 54,355 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.27% (- 145). The weighted contract positions changed by + 4813 lots to 255,836 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were flat, and the basis of the main contract was - 1375 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply pressure of polysilicon may be marginally alleviated. The downstream operating rate is expected to be stable. The supply - demand pattern may improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. Pay attention to the implementation of relevant news [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: The main contract of glass closed at 1113 yuan/ton, up 1.64% (+ 18). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises increased by 233.74 million cases (+ 3.64%) week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 25,212 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 86,221 short positions [17]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The glass market is mainly trading low - price goods, the demand recovery is slow, and the raw - material soda ash price provides cost support. The glass futures price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - Market Information: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1239 yuan/ton, down 0.56% (- 7). The inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 0.16 million tons (+ 3.64%) week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 2798 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9227 short positions [19]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The supply of soda ash is stable, the cost pressure increases, and the downstream replenishment demand is mainly for low - price and rigid needs. The soda ash price is expected to consolidate narrowly in the short term [20].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Black Industry Chain Weekly Report" [1] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [2] - Report Issuer: Huabao Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - **Overall Black Market**: The black market is expected to operate at a low level with a short - term rebound. The macro - environment has improved, and steel production restrictions support price rebounds. However, attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly decreasing, but the pressure on inventory accumulation is within an acceptable range. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore is expected to be in the range of 760 - 785 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 103 - 105 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coal and Coke**: The short - term supply and demand of coal and coke fluctuate marginally, and the inventory pressure is temporarily not large. The price should be treated with cautious optimism. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the coal - coke - steel industry and changes in imported coal customs clearance [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferroalloys remains relatively loose, and the price is expected to be under pressure and decline weakly. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits, production, and domestic production restrictions [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of most black futures and spot products showed different degrees of changes last week. For example, the price of the main contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 1.44%, and the price of the main contract of coke increased by 4.86% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Logic**: The utilization rate of blast furnace iron - making capacity of 247 steel mills decreased slightly last week. The macro - environment improved, and Hebei launched a heavy - pollution weather emergency response, which is beneficial to the fundamentals of steel in the short term [9]. - **Viewpoint**: The black market is expected to operate at a low level with a short - term rebound. - **Later Attention**: Macro policies and downstream demand. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar** - **Production and Apparent Demand**: Last week, the production was 207.07 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.91 million tons; the apparent demand was 226.01 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6.26 million tons [14]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 622.11 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 18.94 million tons [21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Production and Apparent Demand**: Last week, the production was 322.46 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 million tons; the apparent demand was 326.73 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 11.18 million tons [25]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 414.92 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.27 million tons [29]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The overseas ore shipment increased slightly week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased rapidly for two consecutive weeks after reaching a new high this year [10]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand decreased week - on - week. The blast furnace operating rate increased, but the molten iron output decreased. The loss range of steel mills expanded, and the profitability rate dropped to the lowest level of the year [10]. - **Inventory**: The steel mill inventory increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [10]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 760 - 785 yuan/ton for the main contract of Dalian iron ore [10]. 3.3.3 Coal and Coke - **Supply**: Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia stopped production due to safety and mining area governance issues last week, and the coal production decreased [11]. - **Demand**: The profit of steel mills decreased, and the molten iron output decreased slightly [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly [82][89]. - **Price**: The second - round price increase of coke has not been finalized, and the price of coking coal is expected to be treated with cautious optimism [11]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Supply**: The production and operating rate of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises showed different degrees of changes, but the overall supply was still relatively loose [12]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron of five major steel types increased slightly, but the demand may weaken in the future [12]. - **Inventory**: The silicon - manganese inventory continued to increase, and the silicon - iron inventory decreased slightly [12]. - **Cost**: The cost support of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron was relatively stable [12]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to be under pressure and decline weakly [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, and rolled steel are rated as "Oscillating"; glass and soda ash are rated as "Adjusting" [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and 2-year, 5-year treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillating"; CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "Rebounding"; 10-year treasury bond is rated as "Upward"; gold and silver are rated as "High-level Oscillating" [2][3][4] - **Light Industry**: Logs are rated as "Treated Bullishly"; pulp is rated as "Bottom Consolidation"; offset paper is rated as "Weak Oscillation" [5] - **Oil and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "Wide-range Oscillation" [5] - **Feedstuffs**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1 are rated as "Rebounding" [5][6] - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Oscillating Bullishly" [6] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Oscillating"; PX, MEG, PR, and PF are rated as "On the Sidelines"; PTA is rated as "Oscillating" [7] 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The iron ore market has an oversupply situation that is difficult to reverse, and the steel market's demand is weak. The coal coke market is affected by safety inspections and low steel mill profits. The glass market is weak with increasing inventory [2] - **Financial Industry**: The stock index market is in short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and the treasury bond market has a slight upward trend. The gold market is affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [3][4] - **Light Industry**: The log market has improved demand and cost support, while the pulp market has weak demand and cost pressure [5] - **Oil and Fats**: The oil and fats market is affected by high inventory and uncertain demand, showing wide-range oscillation [5] - **Feedstuffs**: The feedstuffs market is affected by weather conditions and supply-demand relationships, with short-term rebound expectations [5][6] - **Agricultural Products**: The live pig market has sufficient supply and weak demand, with short-term weak oscillation [6] - **Soft Commodities**: The rubber market is affected by weather and demand, showing wide-range oscillation. The polyester market has supply-demand and cost uncertainties [7] 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Supply is expected to remain high, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price may hit a new low if negative feedback occurs. Four main lines should be closely monitored [2] - **Coal Coke**: The market is concerned about demand-side policies. Supply concerns have increased, and the low profit of steel mills may lead to production cuts [2] - **Rolled Steel**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the demand is weak. The price stop-falling depends on production reduction and policy implementation [2] - **Glass**: The market is weak with increasing inventory. The possibility of cold repair is increasing, and the price may continue to oscillate weakly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is in short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment. It is recommended to hold long positions [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10-year treasury bonds has increased slightly, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and it is affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3][4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The demand has improved, and the cost support has increased. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to be bullish [5] - **Pulp**: The cost support has weakened, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - **Offset Paper**: The supply is stable, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [5] Oil and Fats - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The market is affected by high inventory and uncertain demand, showing wide-range oscillation. Attention should be paid to weather and production and sales changes [5] Feedstuffs - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2, and Soybean No. 1**: The market is affected by weather conditions and supply-demand relationships, with short-term rebound expectations. Attention should be paid to weather and trade negotiations [5][6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation [6] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [7] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: The market has supply-demand and cost uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the price trends [7]