晨报 煤焦 煤焦：需求阶段性承压 价格震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 26 日 逻辑：昨日，上海发布楼市"沪七条"进一步调减住房限购政策，刺 激地产相关板块情绪走强，煤焦钢期价悉数收涨。另据 Mysteel 消息，华 北部分钢企已接到 2026 年全国重要会议期间临时自主减排通知，要求企 业在 3 月 4 日—3 月 11 日执行阶段性减排管控，高炉负荷按不低于 30% 比例自主减排，并由企业结合自身装备、生产与原料库存情况，制定专项 减排执行方案，按要求上报备案，减排消息 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Steel**: Before the Spring Festival, terminal demand for steel shrinks, trading is lackluster, inventory accumulation of rebar accelerates year - on - year, and hot - rolled coil shifts from inventory reduction to accumulation. The fundamentals are weakening. Blast furnace profits are stable, leading to stable output, while EAF output is likely to significantly reduce. Supply is relatively stronger than demand, and falling raw material prices further suppress the market, though cost and policy provide support at the bottom [3]. - **Iron Ore**: On the supply side, overseas shipments of iron ore decline seasonally, and the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere may affect Australian ore shipments. On the demand side, steel mills' restocking is nearly complete, hot - metal production is expected to rise, but it's the off - season for terminal consumption. Port inventories are accumulating above the seasonal norm, with high inventory pressure, and reduced market risk appetite is suppressing prices [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Before the festival, domestic coking coal mines reduce production, leading to a seasonal contraction in coking coal supply. Imported coal arrivals are at a low level, and there is an inverted price difference between domestic and international markets. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, improving coking profits. Coke production is expected to pick up, and steel mills'复产 is leading to a slow increase in demand. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the post - festival resumption of production rhythm is the key factor to watch [34]. - **Ferroalloys**: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron face a game between cost support and downstream terminal inventory accumulation. Manganese ore prices are firm, providing bottom - line support. Ferroalloy profits have rebounded but are still in the red, and production remains low. Steel mills'复产 may drive demand, but the off - season for downstream steel consumption limits demand growth. Silicon manganese has a large inventory base and high de - stocking pressure, while the fundamentals of silicon iron are slightly better [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken, and its price is oscillating weakly, with industrial contradictions still accumulating. If the futures price rises, there is some restocking space for mid - stream players such as futures - cash arbitrageurs, but the demand elasticity is limited. The downward price space needs to be opened up by inventory accumulation. In terms of supply - demand, with the release of new production capacities, daily soda ash output is at a high level, and the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain high. The inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, daily melting is temporarily stable, and overall rigid demand is weakening. The heavy - soda balance remains in surplus. Soda ash exports remain high, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [67]. - **Glass**: Market news indicates that due to environmental protection pressure, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe may be cold - repaired before the Spring Festival, with a total daily melting capacity of 2,700 tons. Coupled with the 1,200 - ton cold - repair of Dongtai Zhongbo last week and the expected 1,000 - ton cold - repair of Deyang Xinyi before the Spring Festival, float glass will experience concentrated cold - repair before the Spring Festival, which is slightly beyond expectations. The daily melting capacity will drop to around 146,000 - 147,000 tons. Although there are many new production lines to be ignited in Shahe, the earliest they can be implemented is after the Spring Festival, and it will take months to produce products. The pre - festival concentrated cold - repair helps relieve the inventory and spot pressure after the Spring Festival. Float glass is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the high inventory in the middle - stream is a risk point. If a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be large [91]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Price Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3132 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3054 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3103 yuan/ton. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3273 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3228 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3247 yuan/ton. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in various regions remained stable compared to the previous day [4][9][12]. - **Ratio and Spread Data**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4, and the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2. The 01 - 05 month spread of rebar was 78, and that of hot - rolled coil was 45 [4][20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of iron ore 01 contract was 733.5 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 762.5 yuan/ton, and 09 contract was 745 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 31 yuan/ton, 05 basis was 1.5 yuan/ton, and 09 basis was 19 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of February 6, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 228.58 tons, the port desilting volume of 45 ports was 341.08 tons, the apparent demand of five major steel products was 761 tons, the global shipment volume was 2535.3 tons, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 1881.1 tons, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2361.3 tons, the inventory at 45 ports was 17140.71 tons, the inventory of 247 steel mills was 10316.64 tons, and the available days for 247 steel mills were 36.55 days [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was - 173.5, the 05 - 09 spread was - 80, and the 01 - 05 spread was 253.5. The 09 - 01 spread of coke was - 90, the 05 - 09 spread was - 75, and the 01 - 05 spread was 165. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions showed different degrees of change compared to the previous day and the previous week [35][37][38]. - **Profit Data**: The on - disk coking profit was - 37 yuan/ton, the main ore - coke ratio was 0.457, the main rebar - coke ratio was 1.832, and the main coke - coal ratio was 1.474 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On February 10, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 40, the 01 - 05 spread was 144, the 05 - 09 spread was - 60, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 84. The spot prices in different regions showed a slight decline compared to the previous week [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On February 11, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176, the 01 - 05 spread was 104, the 05 - 09 spread was - 42, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 62. The spot prices in various regions remained stable [50][52]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1178 yuan/ton, 09 contract was 1240 yuan/ton, and 01 contract was 1288 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 62, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 48, and the 1 - 5 month spread was 110. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions remained stable [68]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, the inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, and the rigid demand is weakening. Soda ash exports remain high [67]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1087 yuan/ton, 09 contract was 1189 yuan/ton, and 01 contract was 1226 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 102, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 37, and the 1 - 5 month spread was 139 [92]. - **Production and Sales Data**: The daily production and sales data of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed fluctuations in the recent period [92].

Report Date - The report is dated February 10, 2026 [1] Steel Report Core View - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level, while the production of electric furnaces has significantly decreased seasonally due to the Spring Festival. Terminal demand has further shrunk, with transactions showing a situation of "prices but no market". Inventory has continued to accumulate, with the accumulation rate of rebar accelerating year-on-year, and hot-rolled coils having shifted from destocking to stockpiling. The significant increase in hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts has exerted upward pressure on coil prices. Overall, finished steel products are oscillating weakly and may test the lower limit of the box-shaped oscillation [3]. Price Data - Rebar: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,133 yuan/ton, 3,052 yuan/ton, and 3,097 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Hot-rolled coils: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,263 yuan/ton, 3,220 yuan/ton, and 3,239 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Spread Data - Rebar spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 81 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was -45 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was -36 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026 [4]. - Hot-rolled coil spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 43 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was -19 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was -24 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026 [4]. Iron Ore Report Core View - The supply and demand situation is significantly weak. Overseas shipments have seasonally decreased, and attention should be paid to the impact of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere on Australian shipments. Steel mills have decent profits, and molten iron production is expected to steadily increase. Terminal steel consumption has entered the pre - holiday off - season. The accumulation rate of social inventory is slower than in previous years, and port inventory has continued to accumulate above the seasonal level, facing significant pressure. Market risk appetite is low, and prices are under pressure [21]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 732 yuan/ton, 761.5 yuan/ton, and 744 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, and 1 yuan/ton respectively, and the weekly changes were -17, -16, and -16 yuan/ton respectively [22]. Fundamental Data - On February 6, 2026, the average daily molten iron production was 228.58 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 341.08 tons, and the global shipment volume was 2,535.3 tons [26]. Coking Coal and Coke Report Core View - As the Chinese New Year approaches, domestic mines have reduced production, and the supply of coking coal has seasonally shrunk. The domestic and foreign prices of imported coal are inverted, and the arrival volume is at a low level. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and coking profits have improved. The resumption of production of blast furnace steel mills has been slow, and the short - term supply and demand are relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival. There may be a supply - demand mismatch under the background of tight seaborne coal imports [33]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was -175 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was -77.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 252.5 yuan/ton [34][36]. - On February 10, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coke was -94 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was -74.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 168.5 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy Report Core View - Cost support and the pressure of the downstream terminal steel inventory accumulation are in a game. Silicon manganese is facing its own high - inventory pressure, and the manganese ore quotation provides bottom support. Ferroalloy production is already at a low level, and it is difficult to see a significant reduction in production. The resumption of production of steel mills may drive an increase in molten iron, but the demand increase is limited due to the off - season inventory accumulation of terminal steel products. The decline in finished steel products suppresses prices, and in the short term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [48]. Price Data - For silicon iron on February 9, 2026, the basis in Ningxia was 26 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5,370 yuan/ton, 5,390 yuan/ton, 5,300 yuan/ton, 5,400 yuan/ton, and 5,400 yuan/ton respectively [49]. - For silicon manganese on February 10, 2026, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 182 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5,570 yuan/ton, 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,700 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, and 5,700 yuan/ton respectively [50][53]. Soda Ash Report Core View - There is an expectation of weakening rigid demand, and soda ash is oscillating weakly, with industrial contradictions still accumulating. If the futures price rises, there is a certain restocking space for middle - stream players such as those involved in futures - cash arbitrage, but the demand elasticity is limited due to the general demand situation. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In terms of supply and demand, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the expectation of high - level long - term supply of soda ash remains unchanged. The inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, the daily melting volume is temporarily stable, and the overall rigid demand is moderately weak. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. Soda ash exports remain at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to a certain extent [68]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash were 1,171 yuan/ton, 1,234 yuan/ton, and 1,282 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were -10 yuan/ton, -9 yuan/ton, and -4 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily decline rates were -0.85%, -0.72%, and -0.31% respectively [69]. Glass Report Core View - According to market news, due to environmental protection pressure, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe may undergo cold repair before the Spring Festival, with a total daily melting volume of 2,700 tons. There may be more definite news in the next few days. Coupled with the 1,200 - ton cold repair of Dongtai Zhongbo last week and the expectation of 1,000 - ton cold repair of Deyang Xinyi before the Spring Festival, it means that float glass will experience concentrated cold repair before the Spring Festival, slightly exceeding expectations. The daily melting volume will decline to around 146,000 - 147,000 tons. Although there are many new production lines to be ignited in the Shahe area, even the earliest ones will not be implemented until after the Spring Festival, and it will take several months to produce products. This wave of pre - Spring Festival concentrated cold repair will help relieve the inventory accumulation pressure and spot price pressure after the Spring Festival. In terms of supply and demand, float glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Regardless of how the supply expectation changes, the high inventory of the glass middle - stream is a risk point. Currently, it seems that the terminal may not be able to digest it, so once a negative feedback occurs, the spot price pressure will be significant [91]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass were 1,087 yuan/ton, 1,189 yuan/ton, and 1,224 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 23 yuan/ton, 19 yuan/ton, and -9 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily increase/decrease rates were 2.16%, 1.62%, and -0.73% respectively [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall black market is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation. Steel products show a seasonal situation of weak supply and demand, and there may still be capital outflows before the Spring Festival, leading to a decrease in market trading volume. The macro - level is calm and has little impact on prices [12]. - For iron ore, it is recommended to mainly short - allocate. The macro - level driving force has weakened, the supply - demand contradiction has continued to accumulate in the short term, and the price is restricted by the industrial chain profit. The strategy is to conduct range operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - For coal and coke, the current supply - demand contradiction in the market is general, and the inventory pressure is not large, providing some support for prices. However, due to the off - season effect, there is no continuous upward driving force, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Prudent operation is required [14]. - For ferroalloys, before the Spring Festival, the market trading is cold. The alloy fundamentals remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the prices will follow the black market and fluctuate within a narrow range before the Spring Festival [16] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Market Review - The closing prices of most futures and spot products in the black industry chain decreased from January 30 to February 6, 2026, except for the scrap steel whose price index increased by 0.61%. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2605 decreased by 1.63%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 0.92% [8] 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast Overall Market - Logic: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased, and the average daily hot - metal output also increased. The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market enters the holiday mode, showing a seasonal situation of weak supply and demand. There may be capital outflows before the festival, and the macro - level has little impact on prices [12]. - View: Low - level consolidation [12] Iron Ore - Logic: Macroscopically, the short - term inflation expectation has declined, and the employment has weakened marginally. The domestic economic recovery shows a pulsed characteristic. In terms of supply, although the external ore shipment is in the off - season, it is higher than the same period in previous years. The domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. In terms of demand, the domestic demand has slightly recovered, but the steel mill's profitability is weak, and the terminal demand is in the seasonal off - season. The steel mill's restocking is coming to an end, and the port inventory is at a high level [13]. - View: Short - allocate mainly, conduct range operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13] Coal and Coke - Logic: The coal and coke futures prices first rose and then fell due to the false rumor of production quota cuts in Indonesia. Recently, the overall trend of steel and ore has been weak, and the off - season restricts the rebound height. The domestic coal mines are starting to shut down for the holiday, and the output is expected to decline significantly. However, the downstream has stocked up in advance, and there is no continuous upward driving force [14]. - View: The supply - demand contradiction is general, and the inventory pressure is not large, providing support for prices. But due to the off - season, there is no continuous upward driving force, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Prudent operation is required [14] Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas, the US manufacturing PMI has entered the expansion range, but the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense. Domestically, the three major PMI indices have declined. The prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures have slightly declined. In terms of supply, the output and operating rate of ferromanganese have slightly shrunk, and those of ferrosilicon have slightly increased. In terms of demand, the demand from steel mills has weakened, and the restocking is coming to an end. In terms of inventory, the inventory of ferromanganese has increased, and that of ferrosilicon has decreased slightly. In terms of cost, the manganese ore price is expected to remain firm, and the cost of ferrosilicon is well - supported [17]. - View: Before the Spring Festival, the market trading is cold. The alloy fundamentals remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the prices will follow the black market and fluctuate within a narrow range before the Spring Festival [17] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar** - Production: The weekly output last week was 191.68 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.15 and a year - on - year increase of 7.88. The long - process output was 162.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81 and a year - on - year decrease of 18.79. The short - process output was 28.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.34 and a year - on - year increase of 26.67 [20][23]. - Apparent demand: Last week, it was 147.64 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28.76 and a year - on - year increase of 16.09 [20]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 365.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39.52 and a year - on - year decrease of 119.45. The steel mill inventory was 153.65 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52 and a year - on - year decrease of 66.36. The total inventory was 519.57 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44.04 and a year - on - year decrease of 185.81 [27]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was 62 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 and a year - on - year increase of 72; for May, it was 143 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21 and a year - on - year increase of 88; for October, it was 96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 and a year - on - year increase of 96 [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - Production: The weekly output last week was 309.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 14.97 [31]. - Apparent demand: Last week, it was 305.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.87 and a year - on - year increase of 7.11 [31]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 280.45 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.12 and a year - on - year decrease of 36.92. The steel mill inventory was 78.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.50 and a year - on - year decrease of 18.20. The total inventory was 359.20 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.62 and a year - on - year decrease of 55.12 [35]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 and a year - on - year increase of 34; for May, it was - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 and a year - on - year decrease of 4; for October, it was - 19 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 and a year - on - year increase of 18 [45] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory (45 ports): The total inventory this week was 17140.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 118.45 and a year - on - year increase of 1748.18. The Australian ore inventory was 7903.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 104.08 and a year - on - year increase of 1155.26. The Brazilian ore inventory was 5536.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47.54 and a year - on - year decrease of 427.29 [49]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory/consumption: The inventory was 10316.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 348.05 and a year - on - year increase of 821.90. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 36.55, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 and a year - on - year increase of 3.36. The daily consumption was 282.24 million tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 1.28 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.93 [60]. - 247 steel mills' operating rate/profitability: The blast furnace operating rate was 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate was 85.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The profitability rate was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 12.13 percentage points [64]. - Global shipments (19 ports): The total global shipment this week was 2535.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 559.3 and a year - on - year increase of 200.4. The shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 1881.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 585.4 and a year - on - year decrease of 17.0 [68] 3.3.3 Coal and Coke - Coke inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 976.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.53 and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7. The independent coke enterprises' inventory was 82.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7 and a year - on - year decrease of 74.0 [93]. - Coking coal inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2998.56 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 84.18 and a year - on - year increase of 80.0 [100]. - Independent coke enterprises' average profit per ton of coke: Last week, it was - 10 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 45 and a year - on - year increase of 17 [105]. - Independent coke enterprises' capacity utilization rate and daily coke output: The capacity utilization rate last week was 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8. The daily coke output was 63.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.93 [109] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Spot prices: On February 6, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 36 yuan/dry ton degree, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 5. The spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 6520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 820 and a year - on - year increase of 120. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 and a year - on - year decrease of 680 [132]. - Manganese ore inventory: In the week of January 30, the total port inventory was 435.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.9 and a year - on - year increase of 42.3. The inventory in Tianjin Port was 332.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.5 and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8 [136]. - Output: The weekly output of ferromanganese was 190995 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1400 and a year - on - year decrease of 2345. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 [139][141]. - Demand: The weekly demand for ferromanganese from five major steel products was 116059 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1161 and a year - on - year increase of 2251. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 18497.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 261 and a year - on - year increase of 621 [143]. - Inventory: On February 6, the inventory of ferromanganese was 377800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3500 and a year - on - year increase of 227300. The inventory of ferrosilicon was 66860 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1040 and a year - on - year decrease of 9380 [147]

Core Viewpoint - The recognition of Sun Qiang, Chairman of Shanxi Qin New Energy Group Co., Ltd., as a national "Outstanding Entrepreneur" highlights the company's commitment to industrial transformation and high-quality development in the energy sector [3][8]. Group 1: Recognition and Awards - Sun Qiang is the only entrepreneur from Shanxi Province to receive the national "Outstanding Entrepreneur" title in the 2023-2024 selection, which included 164 entrepreneurs nationwide [3][4]. - The national "Outstanding Entrepreneur" selection is a significant recognition project approved by the State Council, aimed at promoting entrepreneurial spirit and acknowledging contributions to China's modernization [4]. Group 2: Company Achievements - Under Sun Qiang's leadership, Qin New Energy Group has focused on the development path of "relying on coal, extending coal, and surpassing coal," driving the transformation and upgrading of the traditional coal and coke industry through technological innovation [7]. - The company has been recognized for its high-quality production, with two coal selection plants awarded as "National High-Quality Efficient Coal Selection Plants" and "Top Ten Coal Selection Plants" [7]. - The special coke produced by the company has been awarded "National Manufacturing Single Champion Products" and has received multiple accolades, including the "Golden Ding Award" for foundry materials [7]. Group 3: Future Directions - Moving forward, Qin New Energy Group aims to deepen innovation-driven strategies, strengthen its core business, and expand into new materials, enhancing its core competitiveness and leadership role in the industry [8]. - The company's practices serve as a model for stimulating innovation among various market entities and contribute to the green and low-carbon transformation of the energy industry in Shanxi Province [7][8].

黑色产业链日报 2026/02/03 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a neutral fundamental situation with a range - bound trend. Supply - side blast furnace profits are stable, electric furnace profits are weakening, and short - term production may continue to increase. Demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is seasonally weakening, and inventory will continue to accumulate [3]. - The iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term, with seasonal inventory accumulation. However, due to the support from the steel market and the expected restocking by steel mills, the downside price space is limited [23]. - The coking coal market shows a pattern of "strong spot, weak futures", and the basis is at a high level. Short - term spot prices may face回调 pressure, and medium - to - long - term prices may face significant downward pressure under certain conditions [33]. - The ferroalloy market is in a range - bound pattern between the cost line and the previous pressure level. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are slightly better than those of silicomanganese [50]. - The soda ash market has an increasing excess supply expectation with new capacity coming on - stream. Although exports are high, the high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price [64]. - The glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is difficult to have a trend - based movement. The high inventory of the mid - stream needs to be digested, and the spot market is under pressure [87]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: - Rebar: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3200, 3123, and 3169 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3326, 3280, and 3301 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Spot prices: On January 28, 2026, the rebar summary price in China was 3313 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [9][12]. - **Spread Data**: - Rebar spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 spreads were 77, - 46, and - 31 respectively [4]. - Hot - rolled coil spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 spreads were 46, - 21, and - 25 respectively [4]. - Other spreads: The roll - rebar spread, basis, and other spreads also have corresponding values and changes [9][12][17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: - Futures prices: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 752.5, 783, and 764.5 yuan/ton respectively [24]. - Spot prices: On January 28, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 793 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: - On January 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 228.1 thousand tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 310.73 thousand tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 16766.53 thousand tons [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: - Coking coal spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads were - 178, - 80, and 258 respectively [36]. - Coke spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads were - 91.5, - 71, and 162.5 respectively [36]. - Other data: The basis, coking profit, and other indicators also have corresponding values and changes [36]. - **Spot Prices**: - On January 28, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1640 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton [39]. Ferroalloy - **Ferrosilicon Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the basis in Ningxia was - 32 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [51]. - **Silicomanganese Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 188 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton [52]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1198, 1259, and 1295 yuan/ton respectively [65]. - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 61, - 36, and 97 respectively [65]. - **Spot Prices**: - On January 28, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton [65]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1067, 1173, and 1227 yuan/ton respectively [88]. - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 106, - 54, and 160 respectively [88]. - **Sales and Production Data**: - On January 27, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 122%, and in Hubei was 138% [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The supply - side has stable blast furnace profits and rising disk profits, so steel mills may continue to increase production with a low probability of significant reduction. The demand - side is affected by winter cold, with seasonal weakening of rebar demand and inventory accumulation, and hot - rolled coil demand may slow down and turn to inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices will fluctuate within a range [3]. - Iron Ore: Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the downside is supported by the healthy fundamentals of steel, good profits of steel mills, and inventory replenishment expectations. Additionally, attention should be paid to the impact of rainy seasons in Australia and Brazil on shipments. It is expected that the price decline space is limited [23]. - Coal and Coke: Coking coal is in a pattern of "strong spot, weak disk" with a high basis. Without strong policy expectations to boost the disk, as winter storage enters the second half, the demand sustainability is limited, and the spot price of coking coal may face downward pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, if there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic supply recovery" and "weakening macro - sentiment", the prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [36]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. The upper limit of silicon - manganese is restricted by high inventory, and the fundamentals of silicon - iron are slightly better than those of silicon - manganese. In the short term, ferroalloys will fluctuate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [52]. - Soda Ash: The short - term commodity sentiment is warming up, which may drive some low - valued varieties. If the disk rises, there is some inventory replenishment space for middle and downstream players, but the demand is average with limited elasticity. In terms of fundamentals, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the oversupply expectation is intensifying. The export of soda ash remains high, which alleviates the domestic pressure to some extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [66]. - Glass: Although the daily melting of float glass has dropped to a certain low level, the demand reality and expectation are also weak. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines for cold - repair and ignition, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. Currently, the high inventory of the middle reaches of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists [90]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3199 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan from January 26), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3330 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The basis and month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4][10][12]. - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day. For example, 01 rebar/01 iron ore was 4, and 01 rebar/01 coke was 2 [20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 757 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan from January 26). The basis also increased, and the prices of various iron ore varieties such as Rizhao PB powder also rose [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the 45 - port desilting volume decreased, the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased, the 45 - port inventory and 247 - steel mill inventory increased, and the available days of 247 steel mills also increased [30]. Coal and Coke - **Price Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was - 178 (down 12.5 from January 26). The disk coking profit increased, and the ratios such as the main ore - coke ratio also changed [39]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions remained relatively stable on January 27, 2026, with some slight changes in the import profit of different types of coal [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - Iron**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the basis of silicon - iron in Ningxia increased, the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke and动力煤 decreased slightly, and the number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased [53]. - **Silicon - Manganese**: On January 27, 2026, the basis of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia increased, the month - spreads changed slightly, the spot prices in various regions remained stable, and the prices of some manganese ores decreased slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts increased slightly [54][56]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding changes [67]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the overall inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, restricting the price [66]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1066 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis changed [91]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the period from January 17 - 23, 2026 [92].

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2026.1.26 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、煤焦、铁合金） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 成材：驱动不强 钢价整理运行 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ Ø 逻辑：上周，247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率85.51%，环比上周增加0.03个百分点 ；钢厂盈利率40.69%，环比上周增加0.86 个百分点；日均铁水产量 228.1万吨，环比上周增加0.09万吨。上周，全国94家独立电弧炉钢厂平均产能利用率57.94%，环 比下降0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the production recovery of finished products is slowing down, the apparent consumption of rebar is rising, inventory is turning to destocking but may accumulate later, and the destocking of hot-rolled coils is accelerating but the increase in warehouse receipts is significant. The fundamentals are neutral, lacking drivers, and supported by the cost side, with limited downside space [3]. - For iron ore, the current dominant factor of its price is not its fundamentals but the macro - expectations. In the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation and slow resumption of production, the fundamentals cannot support the current high valuation, and there is a lack of support for the price to continue to rise. However, after the price drops, the selling pressure is released, and steel mills have the rigid demand for replenishing inventory, so the price also has support at the bottom. Overall, it shows a wide - range shock [22]. - For coking coal and coke, the accident at a factory in Inner Mongolia over the weekend may lead to a contraction in local steel supply, which can repair the profit of steel products on the disk and support steel prices. In the follow - up, the result of the incident should be concerned. If the incident leads to stricter supervision and production restrictions in local areas, the progress of hot metal resumption may slow down, exacerbating the short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal. In the long - term, the change in macro sentiment and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines after the Spring Festival should be focused on. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected recovery of domestic supply" and "weakening of macro sentiment", the long - term prices of coking coal and coke will face greater downward pressure [32]. - For ferroalloys, the ferroalloys are supported by the cost side at the bottom. In the short - term, after the correction, they may show a bottom - shock trend [47]. - For soda ash, the previous warming of commodity sentiment drove some low - valued varieties, and the disk price increased. The middle - stream of soda ash replenished inventory, but the elasticity was limited. From the perspective of fundamentals, as the new production capacity gradually releases production, the daily output of soda ash reaches a new high, and the surplus expectation is also intensifying. At present, the expectation that the long - term supply of soda ash will remain at a high level remains unchanged. The photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate inventory, and the number of kiln blockages begins to increase. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. In November, the export of soda ash was close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continued to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle - streams restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - For glass, there are rumors that some production lines have the expectation of ignition, and the supply - demand expectation has deteriorated. Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, the actual demand and expectation are also weak. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, it is difficult to have a trend - based movement. On the supply side, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired and ignited before the Spring Festival, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. In addition, the policy disturbance to the supply cannot be excluded. At present, the high inventory of the middle - stream of glass needs to be digested, the terminal is in the off - season, and the spot pressure still exists [86]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3191 yuan/ton, down from 3215 yuan/ton on January 19; the closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3315 yuan/ton, down from 3344 yuan/ton on January 19 [4]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3329 yuan/ton, down from 3336 yuan/ton on January 19; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, down from 3280 yuan/ton on January 19 [9][11]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 89 yuan/ton, up from 75 yuan/ton on January 19; the 01 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was - 45 yuan/ton, up from - 64 yuan/ton on January 19 [9][11]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 - 05 rebar spread was 80 yuan/ton, up from 75 yuan/ton on January 19; the 01 - 05 hot - rolled coil spread was 39 yuan/ton, down from 45 yuan/ton on January 19 [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of 01 contract was 757 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from January 19 and 73 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 794 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from January 19 and 32 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 basis was 48.5 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from January 19 and 84.5 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Fundamental Data**: - The daily average hot metal output on January 16, 2026, was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week and up 1.46 tons month - on - month [27]. - The 45 - port desilting volume on January 16, 2026, was 319.89 tons, down 3.38 tons week - on - week and up 6.44 tons month - on - month [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 162, down 1.5 from January 19; the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 111.5, down 28.5 from January 19 [34]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1620 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19; the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [37]. - **Profit**: The on - the - spot coking profit on January 20, 2026, was - 57 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from January 19 and 38 yuan from January 13 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 48 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from January 19; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [48]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 124, down 66 from January 19 [48]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan from January 19; the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from January 19 [49]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was 126, up 14 from January 19 [49]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1177 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from January 19, with a daily decline of 1.26% [62]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19; the light - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [62]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the Shahe heavy - soda basis was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [62]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was - 61, unchanged from January 19 [62]. Glass - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1056 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from January 19, with a daily decline of 1.31% [87]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 contract basis (Shahe) was - 234 yuan/ton, down 1234 yuan from January 19 [87]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was - 109, up 1 from January 19 [87]. - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: On January 16, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio of Shahe was 135, the sales - to - production ratio of Hubei was 90, the sales - to - production ratio of East China was 91, and the sales - to - production ratio of South China was 105 [88].