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黑色产业链日报-20251010
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 09:53
Report Date - The report is dated October 10, 2025 [1] Steel Industry Core View - Yesterday's upward movement in the steel futures market was a rebound driven by events and macro - optimistic sentiment, lacking fundamental support. With the core supply - demand contradiction unresolved, upward resistance is significant, and the market is expected to remain under pressure, but the impact of favorable macro - policies should be watched [3] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3103 yuan/ton, up from 3096 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3285 yuan/ton, down slightly from 3286 yuan/ton on October 9 [4] - **Spot Prices**: The aggregated rebar price in China on October 10 was 3262 yuan/ton, up from 3257 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai remained at 3350 yuan/ton [7][9] - **Spread Data**: The rebar 01 - 05 month spread on October 10 was - 56 yuan/ton, up from - 63 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month spread remained at - 7 yuan/ton [4] Iron Ore Industry Core View - With the seasonal recovery of terminal demand, marginal improvement in fundamentals, and continuous supply - side disturbances, iron ore prices are expected to show an "easily rising and hard - falling" trend in the short term [19] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 795 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan from the previous day [20] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Rizhao PB powder on October 10 was 789 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [20] Fundamental Data - The daily average pig iron output on October 10 was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons from the previous week; the 45 - port ore handling volume was 327 tons, down 9.4 tons from the previous week [23] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Core View - In the fourth quarter, domestic coking coal mine production is restricted by policies. The winter storage this year is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coking coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel [29] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: The coking coal 01 - 05 month spread on October 10 was - 98 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the coke 01 - 05 month spread was - 152.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan from the previous day [33] - **Spot Prices**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal on October 10 was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [34] Ferroalloy Industry Core View - The supply of ferroalloys is at a high level in the past five - year historical period, while demand has not improved significantly during the peak season. There is a prominent contradiction between high supply and weak demand. Cost factors and capital outflows also affect prices [43] Price Data - **Silicon Iron**: On October 10, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from the previous day [44] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on October 10 was 270 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous day [48] Soda Ash Industry Core View - Market sentiment fluctuations increase soda ash price volatility. With the second - phase ignition of Yuanxing, future supply pressure persists. The supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, although exports have alleviated some domestic pressure [57] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1332 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day [58] - **Spot Prices**: The heavy - soda market price in North China on October 10 was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [61] Glass Industry Core View - High inventory in the upstream and mid - stream and weak real - world demand limit glass prices. The supply - demand pattern in the near - term is one of strong supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to supply, cost, and inventory factors [85] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day [86] - **Spot Prices**: The basis of the glass 05 contract in Shahe on October 10 was - 99 yuan/ton, up 10.8 yuan from the previous day [86]
黑色产业链日报-20251009
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 09:46
节假日期间,五大材表需表现疲软,库存累积速度明显快于往年同期,库销比已升至近年同期最高水平。尤其热卷库存累积幅度显著,表明此前基本面相对偏强的 品种也呈现出压力。整体来看,钢材市场仍面临较大的去库压力。当前长流程钢厂尚有一定利润空间,自主减产动力不足,而需求端暂未出现明显超预期的好转。 在此背景下,高供应与需求不足之间的矛盾持续显现,负反馈减产压力逐步积累,节前原料端呈现明显补库支撑,但在钢材需求不足状态下预计节后原料补库动力 较弱。综合来看,基本面偏弱,盘面或承压运行。 | 螺纹、热卷盘面价格. | | | 螺纹、热卷月差. | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025-10-09 | 2025-09-30 | | 2025-10-09 | 2025-09-30 | | 螺纹钢01合约收盘价 | 3096 | 3072 | 螺纹01-05月差 | -63 | -56 | | 螺纹钢05合约收盘价 | 3159 | 3128 | 螺纹05-10月差 | 139 | 139 | | 螺纹钢10合约收盘价 | 3020 | 2989 | 螺纹10-01月 ...
华宝期货黑色产业链周报-20250922
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **成材**: Short - term outlook is oscillating with a slight upward bias, but the upside is limited. The trading logic is mainly based on industry fundamentals, with the price of finished steel showing signs of recovery, yet the weak downstream demand may constrain the price rebound [9]. - **煤焦**: In the short - term, there is an increase in both supply and demand. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory before the National Day holiday, which supports the confidence in price support. The futures market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **铁合金**: Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon continue to face a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with pressure on inventory. However, the short - term restocking demand before the National Day holiday may support prices. It is expected that prices will be in a weak consolidation state [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most black commodity futures and spot prices increased. For example, the futures price of coke J2601 rose from 1625.5 to 1738.5, a 6.95% increase, and the spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke increased from 1390 to 1500, a 7.91% increase [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast - **成材** - **Logic**: The blast furnace utilization rate and daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased, while the average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. The finished steel rebounded last week, but the weak downstream situation remains unchanged. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set an average annual growth target of about 4% for the steel industry in the next two years [9]. - **View**: Short - term oscillation with a slight upward bias. - **Future Focus**: Macroeconomic policies and downstream demand. - **煤焦** - **Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp last week, and the futures price of coal and coke oscillated with an upward bias. On the spot side, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly, and some coke enterprises in Inner Mongolia planned to raise prices. The environmental protection policy in Tangshan affected market sentiment, but the overall rigid demand for raw materials remained strong [10]. - **View**: Short - term supply and demand both increase, and the market will maintain a wide - range oscillation. - **Future Focus**: The resumption process of coal, coke, and steel production and changes in imported coal clearance. - **铁合金** - **Logic**: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp. Domestically, the market has entered the traditional peak season, but demand is still weaker than expected. On the supply side, the output and operating rate of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while those of ferrosilicon remained stable. On the demand side, the weekly demand for silicon manganese and ferrosilicon of the five major steel types decreased for three consecutive weeks. On the inventory side, silicon manganese inventory increased significantly, while ferrosilicon inventory decreased. The cost of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon has certain support [11]. - **View**: Prices are expected to be in a weak consolidation state. - **Future Focus**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits, production, and domestic production restrictions. 03. Variety Data - **成材** - **螺纹钢**: Last week, the output was 206.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.48 tons; the apparent demand was 210.03 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.96 tons. The total inventory was 650.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.58 tons [13][20]. - **热轧**: Last week, the output was 326.49 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.35 tons; the apparent demand was 321.82 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.34 tons. The total inventory was 377.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.67 tons [24][29]. - **基差**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and delivery months showed different changes, such as the 1 - month basis of rebar in Shanghai being 88 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [32]. - **煤焦** - **焦炭**: The total inventory last week was 915.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.99 tons. The independent coke enterprise inventory was 66.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 tons [47]. - **焦煤**: The total inventory last week was 2550.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.68 tons. The independent coke enterprise inventory was 940.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.9 tons [55]. - **Other Data**: Data such as the profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises, inventory availability days, and the ratio of coke to coking coal prices also showed corresponding changes [63][67]. - **铁合金** - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon all increased last week. For example, the spot price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia (6517) increased from 5650 to 5730 yuan/ton [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of manganese ore increased. The inventory of silicon manganese increased significantly, while the inventory of ferrosilicon decreased [81][92]. - **Output and Demand**: The output of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while the output of ferrosilicon remained stable. The demand for both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon decreased for three consecutive weeks [83][89]. - **Import and Production**: In July, the import of manganese ore was 274.35 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.23%. In August, the production of silicon manganese was 90.93 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.94% [96].
黑色产业链日报-20250922
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 09:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day, with limited upward and downward space. The upper limit is restricted by demand and the lack of substantial reduction in supply, while the lower limit is supported by macro - expectations and restocking [3]. - Iron ore prices are expected to move sideways. The downward space is limited by restocking and high hot - metal production, but the upward space is constrained by demand and high shipping volumes, resulting in a weak price trend [21]. - For coal and coke, downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and coke's second - round price cut has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel and high inventory will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The trading logic for the long - term is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - The supply pressure of soda ash in the long - run remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3185 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3380 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts remained relatively stable compared to September 19 [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on September 22 was 3323 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 95 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 50 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of 01 rebar/01 iron ore and 01 rebar/01 coke were both stable at 4 and 2 respectively from September 19 to September 22 [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 808.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan. The basis of the 01 contract was - 8.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of September 19, the daily average hot - metal output was 241.02 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13801.08 tons, and the global shipping volume was 3324.8 tons [28]. Coal and Coke - **Market Outlook**: Downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1144 yuan/ton, and the coking coal main - contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 74.0 yuan/ton [39]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The long - term trading logic is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - **Data for Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: For ferrosilicon on September 22, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 36 yuan, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5480 yuan/ton. For ferromanganese on September 19, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 116 yuan, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5730 yuan/ton [51][55]. Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: The long - term supply of soda ash remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1384 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 23 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.63% [64]. Glass - **Market Outlook**: Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1329 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 14 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.04% [91].
黑色产业链周报-20250915
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 13:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Viewpoint**: The report analyzes the black - chain industry, including various products such as steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys. It points out that different products have different market trends, with overall market conditions affected by factors like supply - demand relationships, production capacity utilization, and macro - policies [9][10][13]. - **Specific Product Viewpoints**: - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with steel prices expected to oscillate at a low level. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by pre - holiday restocking. The price of the main contract (2601 contract) is expected to range between 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market FE10 price of about 105 - 108 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: In the short term, the rapid resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coal - coke, especially the rapid increase in hot metal production, supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Pre - holiday restocking by downstream industries is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market has entered the traditional peak season, but the short - term demand is still not up to expectations. The market sentiment is cautious. Ferroalloys maintain a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory pressure increasing, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 5th to September 12th, 2025, the prices of various products showed different trends. For example, the price of the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased by 16 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The price of the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72%, and the spot price in Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Steel Products**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. Last week, the scale of steel mill maintenance decreased significantly, and the scale of resumption of production increased. The daily average hot metal output increased, but the downstream demand was weak, dragging down steel prices. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to increase steadily. Although the demand has increased in the short term due to pre - holiday restocking, in the medium term, the supply - demand relationship is changing from tight to balanced. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: The futures prices oscillated last week, with a slight weekly decline. The coking coal market is generally weak, but there are expectations for pre - National Day restocking. The rapid increase in hot metal production supports the demand for raw materials, and pre - holiday restocking is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The demand is not up to expectations for the time being. The supply is relatively high, and the inventory is increasing. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3.3 Product Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 211.93 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.75 tons; the apparent demand was 198.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.00 tons. The total inventory was 653.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.86 tons [15][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 325.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.90 tons; the apparent demand was 326.16 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.80 tons. The total inventory was 373.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 tons [29][33]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total import ore port inventory was 13849.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.15 tons; the port Australian ore inventory was 5806.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69.51 tons; the port Brazilian ore inventory was 5228.22 tons, a week - on - week increase of 109.26 tons [44]. - **Steel Mill Inventory and Consumption**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8993.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.18 tons; the daily consumption was 296.65 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 15.98 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - **Coke Inventory**: Last week, the total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 906.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.95 tons [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Last week, the total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) was 2483.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62.28 tons [98]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: Last week, the price of semi - carbonated manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 yuan; the spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5280 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan [121]. - **Production and Demand**: Last week, the output of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 214130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1295 tons; the demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products decreased by 1.09% week - on - week [129][133].
黑色产业链日报-20250915
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 11:09
Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Steel market: The steel fundamentals are under significant pressure, with super - seasonal inventory accumulation leading to a contraction in steel mill profits and an increasing negative feedback risk, which suppresses the upside space of the market. However, expectations for peak - season demand, positive macro - expectations, and anticipated pre - National Day restocking by downstream and steel mills support the raw material end, limiting the downside space. The steel market is expected to show a volatile consolidation pattern in the near term [3] - Iron ore market: Short - term iron ore prices are strong due to tight supply and rising demand. However, weak steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits cap the upside of iron ore prices. There may also be a risk of "good news being fully priced in" [19] - Coal and coke market: Except for rebar, other steel products in the blast furnace process still have profits, so blast furnace steel mills have weak willingness to cut production. Electric furnace steel mills are suffering significant losses, with some regions having production resumptions and others cut - offs. High steel supply and inventory pressure will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" theme remains a focus, and pre - National Day inventory transfers may improve the supply - demand structure. The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [31] - Ferroalloy market: The trading logic for ferroalloys in the long - term lies in the "anti - involution" expectation. After the price decline, ferroalloys are near the cost line, limiting the downside. The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, and the supply - demand pressure may ease as production profit declines and the output in the southern silicon - manganese producing areas is expected to fall [49] - Soda ash market: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, and factors affecting supply or cost will be repeatedly traded. Soda ash demand is stable, but the supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream capping prices [64] - Glass market: High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream and weak demand limit the price increase. There are differences in opinions regarding potential supply cuts in the fourth quarter, so the glass price lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The short - term supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [89] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3136, 3205, and 3045 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3370, 3374, and 3398 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China increased from 3275 to 3284 yuan/ton [7] - The 01 - 05 and 05 - 10 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil remained unchanged from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [4] - **Ratios** - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore and 01, 05, and 09 coke remained at 4 and 2 respectively on September 15, 2025, unchanged from September 12 [16] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 796, 774.5, and 757 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 3.5, - 3, and - 59 yuan/ton respectively [20] - The 01, 05, and 09 basis values of iron ore on September 15, 2025, were - 5.5, 16.5, and - 22 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to September 12 and September 8 [20] - **Fundamentals** - As of September 12, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.55 tons, with a weekly increase of 11.71 tons and a monthly decrease of 0.11 tons [26] - The 45 - port iron ore inventory on September 12, 2025, was 13849.47 tons, with a weekly increase of 24.15 tons and a monthly increase of 30.2 tons [26] Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads were 143.5, - 46.5, and - 97 respectively, with significant changes compared to September 12 [36] - The coke 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads also showed large fluctuations from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had various changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the coking coal price of Australian Peak Downs increased by 3 yuan/ton [36] - The import profits of coking coal from different countries also changed, with the Russian K10 import profit increasing by 67 yuan/ton from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [38] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On September 15, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 18 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 40 yuan/ton [50] - The silicon - iron 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 108, 280, and - 172 respectively, with some weekly changes [50] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on September 15, 2025, was 124 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [53] - The silicon - manganese 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads also had significant changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [53] Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1383, 1412, and 1308 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 15, 249, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [65] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 234 yuan/ton [65] - **Spot Prices** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on September 15, 2025, compared to September 12, with only a few regions having small changes [68] Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the glass 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1308, 1354, and 1207 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 24, 386, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [90] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 362 yuan/ton [90] - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations from September 6 to September 12, 2025. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in the Shahe region was 73 on September 12 [91]
黑色:美联储降息在即,需求仍在恢复中
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:52
Report Information - Report Title: "Black: Fed Rate Cut Imminent, Demand Still Recovering" [1] - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jiang Yulong [1] Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - The Fed is on the verge of a rate cut, and demand is still in the process of recovery. The black sector showed a divergent trend last week. The iron ore price initially rose significantly but then declined, while coking coal and coke prices strengthened in the second half of the week, and the rebar price fell below the previous week's low. There are expectations of anti - involution policies in the steel industry, and the Fed's rate cut expectation has increased [2][3]. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector showed a divergent trend last week. The iron ore price was strong, and the coking coal and coke prices were weak. The 01 contract of iron ore reached a new high for the year due to unconfirmed news but then fell back [3][5]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The non - ferrous sector was strong, while most other sectors declined [7]. 03 Spot Price - The prices of rebar and coking coal and coke declined, while the prices of hot - rolled coils and iron ore increased [9]. 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and the valuation of rebar futures is relatively low. The rebar futures price has fallen to near the cost of valley - rate electricity for electric arc furnaces [4][11]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel production has slightly declined, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The total inventory of five major steel products and the rebar inventory are presented in the historical data comparison charts [13][14]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore shipments have suddenly decreased, and the daily average pig iron output has significantly increased. The daily average pig iron output last week rose to a high level of over 2.4 million tons [4][22]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production has rebounded from a low level, and the inventory has significantly decreased. Although the coking coal production has increased, it is still far from the high - level, and the total inventory has decreased again [4][25]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production has increased, and the total inventory has slightly accumulated. The daily production of coke from 247 steel mills and all coking plants has increased [27][28]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar's on - paper profit has decreased, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened [30]. 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan". China's central bank increased its gold reserves in August. The Fed's rate cut expectation in September has increased due to weak US non - farm employment data. Japan's Prime Minister resigned. OPEC + will increase oil production in October. China's steel exports decreased in August. There were explosions in Qatar. China's PPI and CPI data in August showed certain trends. A coal mine in Heilongjiang has stopped production [37]. Trading Strategies Steel - Buy on dips. For RB2601, pay attention to the support level in the range of [3000 - 3100] [4]. Coking Coal - Trade within the range. For JM2601, pay attention to the range of [1060 - 1230] [4]. Iron Ore - Observe or trade within the range. For I2601, pay attention to the range of [760 - 810] [4].
总营收4634亿元,山西9家民企入围2025年中国民营企业500强
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-29 04:11
Core Insights - The 2025 list of China's top 500 private enterprises was released, with a revenue threshold of 27.023 billion yuan, and the total revenue of these enterprises reached 4.305 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 180 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nine companies from Shanxi province made it to the list, including Pengfei Group, Jincheng Steel Group, and Jin Nan Steel Group, among others [1][2] - The total revenue of the nine Shanxi companies amounted to 463.446 billion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous year [3] - Pengfei Group ranked 88th nationally with a revenue of 110.406 billion yuan, marking a rise of four positions from last year, and is the only company from Shanxi to exceed the 10 billion yuan revenue mark [3][5] - Jincheng Steel Group achieved a revenue of 68.676 billion yuan, ranking 165th, and improved by 17 positions [5] - Jin Nan Steel Group reported a revenue of 65.86 billion yuan, ranking 176th, and had the fastest rise in rankings among Shanxi companies, moving up 41 positions [5] Group 2: Industry Insights - The majority of the nine listed companies are concentrated in the energy and steel sectors, with Longzhong Nanye Group being the only representative from the high-tech industry [2][3] - The 2025 list indicates that 72% of the companies belong to the secondary industry, and 66.4% are in manufacturing [7] - The private enterprises are actively investing in strategic emerging industries, with 309 companies reporting investments in 627 projects across various sectors, including new materials, new energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing [7] - The presence of Shanxi's key industry chain "chain leader" enterprises among the listed companies reflects the province's efforts in industrial transformation and upgrading [7]
宝泰隆: 宝泰隆新材料股份有限公司2025年1-6月主要经营数据的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-25 17:27
Core Viewpoint - The company, Baotailong New Materials Co., Ltd., reported significant declines in revenue and production across its main product lines for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, indicating substantial operational challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Main Operating Data - The total operating revenue for the company in the first half of 2025 was approximately 1.37 million yuan, a decrease of 99.76% from 574.45 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [1]. - The operating cost for the same period was about 1.42 million yuan, down 99.80% from 698.45 million yuan year-on-year [1]. - The production volume of coke was zero tons, representing a 100% decrease from 318,721 tons in the first half of 2024 [1]. - The sales volume of coke was 1,286.81 tons, a decline of 99.59% from 311,970.89 tons in the previous year [1]. - The inventory of coke decreased by 86.35% to 3,006.51 tons from 22,025.60 tons [1]. Group 2: Coal and Chemical Industry Performance - In the coal and coke sector, the operating revenue increased by 278.58% to approximately 80.68 million yuan, while the operating cost rose by 169.91% to about 66.39 million yuan [1]. - The production of coal was reported at 559,781 tons, with a sales volume of 220,927.10 tons [1]. - The operating revenue for the coal sector was approximately 81.78 million yuan, a significant increase of 1,821.08% from 4.26 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Price Changes and Procurement - The price of coke (including coke powder and particles) decreased by 42.12% compared to the previous year [2]. - The price of coal tar increased by 2.32%, while methanol prices rose by 5.64% [2]. - The procurement of raw coal was 559,781 tons from self-production and 169.74 tons from external purchases [2].
华宝期货黑色产业链周报-20250825
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 14:16
Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Black Industry Chain [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Report Provider: Huabao Futures [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market**: The black market is facing a complex situation with various factors influencing different segments. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, macro - policies, and the approaching 9.3 parade, which may lead to production restrictions [9][10]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, influenced by macro factors. The supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight to balanced, and the price is expected to trade in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to experience increased volatility. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and domestic environmental protection policies are key influencing factors [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range, with supply increasing slightly and demand remaining resilient but not strongly driving prices [12]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Most futures and spot prices of black products declined last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3188 to 3119 yuan/ton (-2.16%), and the spot price of HRB400E Φ20 in Shanghai decreased from 3320 to 3280 yuan/ton (-1.20%) [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast Steel Products - **Logic**: The utilization rate of blast - furnace iron - making capacity increased slightly, while the profitability rate of steel mills decreased. The demand for finished steel products is weak, and the approaching parade may affect both supply and demand. The decline in coking coal and coke prices also contributed to the steel price adjustment [9]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of steel products is expected to be volatile and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. Iron Ore - **Logic**: The supply of iron ore has increased more than expected, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising. The demand is still resilient but with a weakening support. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, trading in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Concerns**: Parade - related production - restriction policies, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and supply growth rate [10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: Coking coal prices were volatile last week, affected by a coal - mine accident and Fed's dovish remarks. Coke completed the 7th round of price increase. Environmental protection policies may lead to production restrictions in steel mills [11]. - **Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to be more volatile, with short - term demand showing a downward trend [11]. - **Concerns**: Implementation of environmental protection policies, coal production, steel - mill iron - water output, and import - coal customs clearance [11]. Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have increased. The supply of ferroalloys has increased slightly, while the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased, and the cost support is different for different alloys [12]. - **Viewpoint**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range [12]. - **Concerns**: Tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel - mill profitability, and domestic production - restriction policies [12]. 03. Variety Data Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the production was 214.65 tons (down 5.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 194.8 tons (up 4.86 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 19.85 tons to 607.04 tons [14][22]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The production was 325.24 tons (up 9.65 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 321.27 tons (up 6.52 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 3.97 tons to 361.44 tons [28][32]. Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total port inventory of imported iron ore was 13845.20 tons (up 25.93 tons week - on - week), with the Australian ore inventory at 6114.03 tons (down 13.50 tons week - on - week) and the Brazilian ore inventory at 4996.89 tons (up 56.05 tons week - on - week) [45]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9065.47 tons (down 70.93 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 297.84 tons/day (down 0.68 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The total global shipment was 3406.6 tons (up 359.9 tons week - on - week), with Australian and Brazilian shipments to the world at 2669.7 tons (up 242.0 tons week - on - week) [70]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 888.62 tons (up 1.21 tons week - on - week), and the total coking coal inventory was 2610.599 tons (up 17.7 tons week - on - week) [96][103]. - **Profitability and Production**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was 23 yuan (up 3 yuan week - on - week), and the daily production of 523 coking coal mines was 77.1 tons (up 0.7 tons week - on - week) [111][112]. Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port (Mn36% semi - carbonate manganese block from South Africa) was 34 yuan/dry - ton degree (down 0.8 yuan week - on - week), the spot price of ferromanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan week - on - week) [127]. - **Production and Demand**: The weekly production of silicomanganese (187 independent enterprises) was 211190 tons (up 4130 tons week - on - week), and the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products decreased by 0.08% week - on - week [133][139]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 156000 tons (down 2800 tons week - on - week), and the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 62080 tons (down 3100 tons week - on - week) [143].