Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a strong rebound last week, recovering most of the previous week's losses, with bullish sentiment re-emerging and prices stabilizing above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating a positive outlook for future price increases [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $4,346.46 per ounce, reached a low of $4,344.06, and then surged above the $4,400 mark, ultimately hitting a weekly high of $4,516.88 before closing at $4,509.95. The weekly price fluctuation was $172.82, with a closing increase of $181.6, representing a 4.18% rise compared to the previous week's closing price of $4,328.35 [3][5]. Influencing Factors - The rise in gold prices was influenced by geopolitical risks in Venezuela, despite some resistance from the CME Group's third margin increase for precious metal futures and market expectations of negative non-farm payroll data. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and calls for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve contributed to the bullish sentiment [3][5]. - Central banks in Asia have continued to increase their gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month, further supporting the bullish outlook for gold [3]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains strong, with expectations of continued bullish momentum. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice or more later this year, which, along with rising fiscal debt, could push gold prices towards the $5,000 mark or higher [5][7]. - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices maintain their upward trajectory, there is potential for a significant bull market, with projections suggesting prices could reach between $5,500 and $6,000 [7][8]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices have shown strong performance, recovering from previous declines and reducing bearish patterns. If this trend continues, it could lead to a new bull market with over 30% gains [7]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices have stabilized above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating increased bullish potential and the possibility of reaching new historical highs [8]. - Daily charts indicate that gold is maintaining its position above short-term moving averages, with bullish signals persisting, suggesting a continued upward trend [10].

Core Viewpoint - HSBC's chief precious metals analyst, James Steel, forecasts that gold prices may reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of this year due to geopolitical risks and rising fiscal debt [1][3]. Group 1: Price Predictions - Short-term gold prices are expected to rise significantly, but the increase will moderate as the year progresses [1][3]. - HSBC anticipates that gold prices will fluctuate between $5,050 and $3,950 per ounce in 2026, with an estimated year-end price of $4,450 [4]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The current price surge is driven by safe-haven buying and risk aversion, partly due to a weak dollar and policy uncertainty [1][3]. - Fiscal concerns and a weakening dollar are expected to support gold prices and limit the extent of any potential pullback [4]. Group 3: Adjustments in Forecast - The average price forecast for 2026 has been revised down from $4,600 to $4,587 [2][5].