Report Information - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [1] - Report Title: 2025 November Fiscal Data Review - Research Team: Fixed Income Research Team [2] - Analysts: Chen Xi, Wang Shuaizhong [3] - Event: The Ministry of Finance announced the fiscal data for November 2025 [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In 2025 H2, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly [8] - Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [8] - The bond - stock allocation continues to shift, and bond yields are expected to rise continuously [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 11 - month Fiscal Data Focus - Tax revenue continued positive growth, and the decline of non - tax revenue narrowed. In November, tax revenue increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and has maintained positive growth for 8 consecutive months. The decline of corporate income tax and individual income tax in November may be the main reason for the slowdown in tax revenue growth. The securities trading stamp tax increased by 2.3% year - on - year in November, with a slower growth rate. The importance of investing in people is highlighted, and attention should be paid to fiscal expenditures in related industries. [5] - The decline in land transfer income continued to drag down government fund revenue. From January to November, government fund revenue decreased by 4.9% year - on - year, with land transfer income down 10.7%. The real estate market is in a transition period, and the ebb of land finance may still drag down government fund revenue. [5] - Government fund expenditures turned positive year - on - year in November, reaching 2.8%, up 41 pct from October. Central government fund expenditures increased significantly to 31.5%, up 25.2 pct from the previous value. In October, the central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit. The issuance of new special bonds accelerated in November, and the issuance progress reached 101.3% by the end of November, up 11.2 pct from October. [6] General Public Budget - **Income**: In November, general public budget income decreased by 0.02% year - on - year. Central income decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, while local income increased by 4.1%. Tax revenue items such as foreign - trade enterprise export tax rebates, property tax, deed tax, land value - added tax, urban land use tax, and environmental protection tax increased compared with October. Non - tax revenue decreased by 10.8% year - on - year. [7] - **Expenditure**: In November, general public budget expenditure decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. Central expenditure increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and local expenditure decreased by 5.1%. Infrastructure expenditure items such as urban and rural community affairs and agriculture, forestry, and water affairs decreased year - on - year, and the increase in central expenditure drove the year - on - year increase in fiscal expenditure in November compared with the previous value. [7] Government Fund Budget - **Income**: In November, government fund income decreased by 15.8% year - on - year. Central income decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, and local income decreased by 16.1%. Land transfer income decreased by 26.8% year - on - year. [7] - **Expenditure**: In November, government fund expenditure increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Central expenditure increased by 31.5% year - on - year, and local expenditure increased by 1.7%. Land transfer expenditures decreased by 7.5% year - on - year. The growth rate of government fund expenditures in November increased compared with October. [7] Bond Market Viewpoint - With the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise [8]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月18日 一般公共预算收入由正转负，支出降幅收窄。11 月财政收入当月同比-0.02%，前值 3.2%，由正转负。税 收收入 2.8%，较前值下行；非税收入-10.8%，降幅在高基数下显著收窄，可能是地方加大盘活资产力度。 2025 年 11 月财政数据快评 财政力度继续下滑 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525110002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 1-11 月，全国一般公共预算收入 200516 亿元，同比增长 0.8%；其中，全国税收收入 164814 亿元，同比 增长 1.8%；非税收入 35702 亿元，同比下降 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】税收增速回落，基金性收支均回升——2025 年 11 月财政数据点评 11 月份财政数据需关注以下三点：其一，税收增速从高位回落，非税表现边际好转， 而支出端则明显加力，基建与就业相关预算支出改善幅度较大；其二，地方债务结存 限额下达并用于补充地方政府综合财力后，政府性基金收支均改善；其三，年内新增 专项债供给基本收官，有利于稳定基建投资。风险提示：政策落地不及预期，重大项 目开工不及预期。 【宏观】政府停摆扰动就业，不足以支撑 1 月降息——2025 年 11 月美国非农数据点 评 11 月美国失业率超预期上行至 4.6%，或是政府停摆带来的"技术性"扰动，停摆期 间大量联邦雇员强制休假，被计入失业人口，暂时推高失业率，随政府重新开门，失 业率有望回落。从结构看，政府部门就业走弱，私营部门仍有韧性，其中 11 月商品 生产部门新增就业 1.9 万人，为 2025 年 5 月以来的最高值。从降息角度看，尽管失 业率超预期抬升，但美联储短期内或维持谨慎降息的节奏不变。 公司研究 【互联网传媒】出海社交龙头，聚焦"灌木丛"产品矩阵 ...

Revenue Insights - National general public budget revenue for January to October reached 186,490 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[2] - Tax revenue accounted for 153,364 billion CNY, growing by 1.7% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.1% to 33,126 billion CNY[2] - In October alone, public budget revenue increased by 3.2% year-on-year, up from 2.6% in the previous month[3] Expenditure Trends - Total public budget expenditure from January to October was 225,825 billion CNY, reflecting a 2% year-on-year growth[2] - Central government expenditure was 34,727 billion CNY, up 6.3%, while local government expenditure grew by 1.2% to 191,098 billion CNY[2] - October's expenditure saw a significant decline of 9.8% year-on-year, contrasting sharply with the previous month's growth of 3.1%[3] Fiscal Policy and Budget Completion - To meet the budget target, expenditure growth in the last two months must reach approximately 12.7%[3] - The fiscal policy intensity index has been declining, indicating a reduction in fiscal policy effectiveness despite strong performance in major tax categories[4] - The projected shortfall in the first public account expenditure is estimated at 670.1 billion CNY, with a completion rate of 97.7% against the budget[4] Fund Budget Performance - Government fund budget revenue in October plummeted by 18.4%, primarily due to a 27.3% drop in land transfer income[23] - Fund budget expenditure also decreased significantly by 38.2%, with land-related expenditures falling by 30.8%[23] - Cumulatively, from January to October, the second public account showed a revenue decline of 2.8% and an expenditure increase of 15.4%[23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly and has entered the horizontal part of the second L-shaped curve [7] - Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [7] - There will be a continuous switch in stock - bond allocation: bond yields and the stock market are expected to rise continuously [7] Summary by Related Catalogs General Public Budget Income - In September, general public budget income increased by 2.6% year - on - year, with central income up 3.5% and local income up 2.0% [4] - Tax revenue increased by 8.7% year - on - year, maintaining positive growth for 6 consecutive months. Except for some taxes, most tax types improved compared to August [4] - Securities trading stamp duty revenue continued to soar, with a year - on - year increase of 342.4% due to active stock market trading and a low base in 2024 [4] - Enterprise income tax increased by 19.6% year - on - year, driven by market vitality and improved industrial enterprise profits [4] - Non - tax revenue decreased by 11.4% year - on - year in September [4] Expenditure - In September, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.1% year - on - year, with central expenditure up 3.2% and local expenditure up 3.1% [5] - Infrastructure expenditure items such as urban and rural community affairs and agriculture, forestry and water affairs still declined, but the decline narrowed, driving the increase in fiscal expenditure [5] Governmental Fund Budget Income - In September, governmental fund income increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with central income up 2.4% and local income up 5.9% [6] - Land transfer income decreased by 1.0% year - on - year in September, and the cumulative decline from January to September was 4.2%, reaching the peak in 2025 [6] Expenditure - In September, governmental fund expenditure increased by 0.4% year - on - year, with central expenditure up 19.7% and local expenditure down 0.3% [6] - Land transfer expenditure decreased by 3.1% year - on - year in September, and the growth rate of governmental fund expenditure slowed down compared to August [6] Market - The market was insensitive to fundamental data. On October 17, affected by the US regional bank credit fraud event, the long - term yield trended downwards during the day [7] - The bond market trading may still be affected by the performance of the equity market and the implementation of regulations on fund redemption fees [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In August 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure performance was relatively stable. Tax revenue's cumulative year - on - year growth turned positive for the first time, possibly an early sign of improved economic vitality, but land transfer revenue still had a large drag, reflecting the inertia of the "old economy." The general budget target for this year is not difficult to achieve, while the government - funded budget may face a certain gap, but policy - based financial instruments may form a certain hedge [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 General Budget Revenue - **Overall Growth and Composition**: In August, the national general budget revenue increased by 2.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than July. Tax revenue increased by 3.4% (previous value 5.0%), and non - tax revenue's year - on - year decline narrowed from - 12.9% to - 3.8%. From January to August, tax revenue's cumulative year - on - year growth was 0.02%, the first positive growth this year, and non - tax revenue's cumulative year - on - year growth was 1.5% [1]. - **Total Progress and Regional Differences**: From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth of general budget revenue was 0.3%, 0.1% higher than the annual budget target, and about 67% of the annual budget was completed, slightly faster than the same period last year. In August, the year - on - year growth of central and local fiscal revenues was both 2.0%, with a slight decline from the previous value. Considering the convergence of economic data in recent months, there may still be some pressure on revenue growth in the future [2]. 3.2 Tax Structure - **High - growth Taxes**: In August, value - added tax, personal income tax, and corporate income tax continued to grow rapidly. Value - added tax increased by 4.4% year - on - year, personal income tax and corporate income tax increased by 9.7% and 33.4% respectively, mainly related to strengthened tax supervision, active capital markets, and improved corporate profitability [3]. - **Slowing - growth Taxes**: The year - on - year growth rate of consumption tax slowed down to 0.9% (previous value 5.4%). Low consumer enthusiasm and high - base pressure in the fourth quarter may affect consumption tax revenue [3]. - **Declining Taxes**: The decline of real - estate - related taxes widened, with a 11.6% year - on - year decrease in August. Real - estate policies had limited impact on sales, and investment and construction indicators continued to decline [4]. - **Increasing Taxes**: The year - on - year growth of stamp duty further increased, with the year - on - year growth of stamp duty rising from 24% in July to 154%, and the year - on - year growth of securities trading stamp duty rising from 125% to 226%, due to the strong rise of the stock market [4]. 3.3 General Budget Expenditure - **Overall Growth**: In August, general public budget expenditure increased by 0.8% year - on - year, slower than the previous value of 3.0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first eight months was 3.1%, lower than the annual budget target of 4.4% [5]. - **Expenditure Areas**: The main driving force was still people's livelihood expenditure, such as social security and employment, health, and education. Infrastructure - related expenditure was still weak, and the growth rate of generalized and narrow - sense infrastructure investment declined [5]. 3.4 Government - Funded Revenue - **Overall Growth**: In August, government - funded revenue decreased by 5.7% year - on - year, turning negative from positive. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth was - 1.4%, lower than the annual budget target of 0.7%. Land transfer revenue's cumulative year - on - year decline was 4.7% [6]. - **Completion Progress and Forecast**: By August, government - funded revenue had completed about 42% of the annual budget. Assuming the current real - estate demand trend continues, the annual revenue growth of the second - account budget is expected to be around - 5%, resulting in a revenue gap of 300 - 500 billion yuan [6]. 3.5 Government - Funded Expenditure - **Growth and Reasons**: In August, government - funded expenditure increased by 19.8% year - on - year, still maintaining high growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first eight months was 30.0%, above the annual budget target of 23.1%. The high - intensity expenditure was mainly due to the front - loaded issuance of local bonds and the injection of special treasury bonds [7]. - **Combined Fiscal Deficit**: The combined broad - fiscal deficit of the two accounts in the first eight months was 6.7 trillion yuan, nearly 2 trillion yuan higher than the same period last year. After excluding the 500 - billion - yuan special treasury bond for capital injection, the broad - fiscal deficit was 6.2 trillion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2022 [7]. 3.6 Future Fiscal Concerns - **Rhythm**: In the third quarter, replacement bonds and special treasury bonds were completed successively. In the fourth quarter, government bond supply will enter a low - season, and the fiscal support for the economy will decline year - on - year, but there is still room for the expenditure of existing funds, mainly in the general budget [9]. - **Tools**: In August, core economic indicators weakened, and the market expected pro - growth policies. However, considering the small gap in the annual target, the possibility of additional fiscal deficits in the fourth quarter is low. Policy - based financial instruments are the core focus, and attention should also be paid to whether there is incremental support for implicit debt resolution [9]. - **Investment Direction**: This year, fiscal focus is not only on infrastructure, but also on child - rearing subsidies, urban renewal, consumer loan interest subsidies, and enterprise arrears. These will still be the focus of future efforts, and attention should be paid to whether there is incremental capital support [9].

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal data for August 2025 indicates a slowdown in both revenue and expenditure growth, reflecting a need to boost domestic demand. Attention should be paid to the release of "quasi-fiscal" functions following the implementation of policy financial tools and the early allocation of new special bond quotas [1][3]. Revenue Summary - In the first eight months of 2025, national general public budget revenue grew by 0.3% year-on-year, with August's growth at 2%, down from 2.6% in July. The narrowing decline in PPI has alleviated the drag on tax revenue, while the income from securities transaction stamp duty has provided notable support. The internal growth momentum of the economy still needs enhancement, and macro policies require further strengthening [1]. - Corporate income tax revenue saw a significant rebound, primarily due to a low base from the previous year. Personal income tax and consumption tax revenue growth slowed, although personal income tax still performed well, while consumption tax remained at a low level. The high growth in securities transaction stamp duty revenue is linked to recent stock market activity. Additionally, vehicle purchase tax and land value-added tax revenues showed significant declines, while export tax rebate revenue growth rebounded, indicating a need to boost domestic demand [1]. Expenditure Summary - In the first eight months of 2025, national general public budget expenditure increased by 3.1% year-on-year, with August's growth at 0.8%, down from 3% in July, likely constrained by revenue. Expenditure in the livelihood sector continued to grow significantly, while infrastructure spending remained low. Social security, employment, and education expenditures maintained high growth rates, while spending on energy conservation, environmental protection, and transportation saw a substantial rebound, mainly due to a low base from the previous year. Expenditures in urban and rural communities, as well as agriculture, forestry, and water resources, experienced a widening decline [2]. Government Fund Summary - In the first eight months of 2025, national government fund budget revenue decreased by 1.4%, with August's growth at -5.7%, down from 8.9% in July. This decline is attributed to the pressure on the land market due to adjustments in the real estate market. Conversely, government fund budget expenditure grew by 30.0% year-on-year, driven by accelerated issuance and utilization of bond funds by various levels of government. In August, government fund budget expenditure increased by 19.8%, down from 42.4% in July, but still showed strong performance [2]. Policy Focus - Moving forward, it is essential for fiscal policy to continue to strengthen. The implementation of policy financial tools is expected to release "quasi-fiscal" functions, which may support the expansion of domestic demand. Additionally, the Ministry of Finance has indicated the early allocation of part of the new local government debt limit for 2026, aiming to utilize debt capacity proactively and address existing hidden debt [3].

Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal revenue in China has shown stability and growth in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting a positive economic trend, with tax revenue growth turning from negative to positive for the first time this year [2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Overview - National general public budget revenue reached 148198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [2]. - National tax revenue totaled 121085 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth in tax revenue this year [2]. - The four major tax categories (domestic VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax) all maintained growth in the first eight months [2]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic VAT, the largest tax source, generated approximately 47000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [2]. - Corporate income tax, the second-largest source, amounted to about 32000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, indicating a potential improvement in corporate profitability [2]. - Domestic consumption tax generated around 12000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [2]. - Individual income tax reached approximately 11000 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 8.9%, attributed to rising property income among certain demographics [2]. Group 3: Non-Tax Revenue and Government Fund Income - Non-tax revenue for the first eight months was 27113 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.5%, significantly lower than the previous year's growth rate of 11.7% [3]. - Government fund budget revenue, primarily from land sales, was 26449 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with land use rights transfer income at 19263 billion yuan, down 4.7% [4]. Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure and Debt Financing - National general public budget expenditure reached 179324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with a focus on social welfare and employment, education, and health care [6]. - Social security and employment expenditure exceeded 30000 billion yuan, growing by 10% year-on-year [6]. - Government bond net financing for the first eight months was 102700 billion yuan, an increase of 46300 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting a more proactive fiscal policy [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fiscal data in July continued to show a warming trend. The improvement on the tax side led to a slight acceleration in narrow - fiscal spending, while broad - fiscal spending maintained resilience supported by special bonds for bank capital injection and ultra - long - term special bonds. Based on the current progress, it is estimated that the fiscal strength in the second half of the year can achieve a smooth continuation, and the probability of supplementing fiscal funds through additional bond issuance within the year is low [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Tax Revenue Situation - In July 2025, the national general budget revenue increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with significant tax contribution. Tax revenue increased by 5.0% year - on - year, 4 percentage points higher than the previous value, while non - tax revenue decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with negative growth for three consecutive months and an expanding decline. The total general budget revenue from January to July increased by 0.1% year - on - year, reaching the annual budget target and completing about 62% of the annual budget, faster than the same period last year. In July, central fiscal revenue increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and local fiscal revenue increased by 3.1% year - on - year [1][2]. - In terms of tax structure, major tax items generally showed high year - on - year growth. Personal income tax and consumption tax increased by 13.9% and 5.4% respectively in July, with their cumulative year - on - year growth from January to July being 8.8% and 2.1%. Corporate income tax increased by 6.4% year - on - year in July. VAT increased by 4.3% year - on - year in July, showing a slight decline but overall remaining stable. Most real - estate - related taxes saw a decline in growth, while securities trading stamp duty increased significantly by 125.4% year - on - year in July [3][4]. General Budget Expenditure - In July, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.0% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points higher than the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to July was 3.4%, 1 percentage point away from the annual target. The main driving force for expenditure was on the livelihood front, such as social security and employment, health, and education, while infrastructure - related expenditure remained in the negative range, and science - related expenditure turned negative [4]. Government - Fund Revenue - In July, national government - fund revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year, with a marginal slowdown in growth. The cumulative year - on - year decline from January to July further narrowed to 0.7%, and the annual budget target is 0.7%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in state - owned land use right transfer revenue narrowed to 4.6%. The government - fund revenue in the first half of the year completed about 37% of the annual progress, significantly faster than the same period last year [6]. Government - Fund Expenditure - In July, national government - fund expenditure increased by 42.4% year - on - year, still at a high level although it declined compared to the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first half of the year was 31.7%, above the annual budget target of 23.1%. The budget completion progress of government - fund expenditure for the whole year was about 43%, faster than the same period in previous years. The combined broad - fiscal deficit of the two accounts in the first seven months reached 5.6 trillion, 1.8 trillion higher than the same period last year [7]. Overall Fiscal Outlook - The first - account target is expected to be achieved, while the second - account may have a small gap. Assuming the annual growth rate of the second - account revenue is around - 5%, there may be a revenue gap of about 300 - 50 billion by the end of the year. However, government - fund revenue and expenditure are not rigid requirements, and the expected 500 - billion - yuan policy - based financial instruments can basically offset the gap [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - In June 2025, the fiscal data continued to show a warming trend. The revenue side had highlights such as personal income tax, and land sales revenue also marginally stabilized. The expenditure side continued to reflect the characteristics of fiscal efforts. Based on the current progress, the annual general budget revenue and expenditure targets are expected to be achieved, and there may be a small gap in government - managed funds, but policy - based financial tools and local debt limit space in the second half of the year may provide some flexibility. Overall, the fiscal situation is better than last year [11]. - The broad - based fiscal deficit of the two accounts combined in the first half of the year reached 5.3 trillion, significantly higher than the same period in 2023 and 2024, and comparable to 2022. It is expected to remain active in the second half of the year. Key areas to focus on in the future include major infrastructure projects and "urban renewal" policies [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. General Budget Revenue - **Revenue Growth and Composition**: In June 2025, the national general budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, with non - tax revenue being a significant drag. Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year - on - year, while non - tax revenue decreased by 3.7% year - on - year and has been on a continuous downward trend this year. The decline in non - tax revenue is expected to continue, and tax revenue may be the focus of the revenue side this year [1]. - **Revenue Target Progress**: In the first half of the year, the cumulative year - on - year growth of general budget revenue was - 0.3%, 0.4 percentage points short of the annual target (0.1%), and it completed about 53% of the annual budget, slightly faster than the same period last year and basically in line with the average of the past five years [2]. - **Central and Local Revenue**: In June, central fiscal revenue decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, while local fiscal revenue increased by 0.6% year - on - year [2]. 2. Tax Structure - **Main Tax Items**: - **Value - Added Tax and Personal Income Tax**: In June, the year - on - year growth rates of value - added tax and personal income tax were 6.8% and 5.0% respectively, showing a slight decline from the previous values. However, from the perspective of cumulative year - on - year growth and absolute scale in the first half of the year, they were at relatively high levels in recent years. The sustainability of the year - on - year increase in personal income tax remains to be observed [3]. - **Consumption Tax and Corporate Income Tax**: In June, corporate income tax increased by 2.7% year - on - year (previous value: 0.0%), and vehicle purchase tax increased by 6.0% year - on - year. The acceleration of consumption tax (2.0%) deviated from the year - on - year decline in social retail sales, which may reflect differences in the tax collection rhythm within the year [3]. - **Real Estate - Related Taxes**: In June, the year - on - year decline of transaction - related taxes (deed tax, land value - added tax) narrowed slightly, and the year - on - year growth rates of holding - related taxes such as property tax and arable land occupation tax were 20.7% and 9.6% respectively, which may be related to the rebound in the new construction and construction area of real estate, but the investment side is still at the bottom - grinding stage [4]. - **Stamp Duty and Securities Transaction Stamp Duty**: In June, stamp duty and securities transaction stamp duty increased by 30.7% and 67.1% year - on - year respectively, mainly due to the increase in stock market trading volume and activity [5]. 3. General Budget Expenditure - **Expenditure Growth**: In June, general public budget expenditure increased by 0.4% year - on - year, down from the previous value of 2.6%. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first half of the year was 3.4%, falling below the annual target of 4.4% [6]. - **Expenditure by Category**: - **Livelihood - Related Expenditure**: In June, social security and employment and health expenditures increased by 8.2% and 5.6% year - on - year respectively, showing resilience, while education expenditure growth slowed to 2.4% (previous value: 3.5%) [6]. - **Infrastructure - Related Expenditure**: In June, expenditures on agriculture, forestry and water, transportation, and urban and rural communities decreased by 10.0%, 12.7%, and 8.1% year - on - year respectively. The year - on - year growth rate of narrow - based infrastructure investment in June was 2.0% (- 3.1 pct), showing a certain slowdown, which may be related to the infrastructure funding gap period [6]. - **Science and Technology and Debt Interest Expenditure**: In June, science and technology expenditure increased by 18.1% year - on - year, while debt interest expenditure decreased by 6.3% year - on - year. As of the end of June, the cumulative net issuance of national debt was 3.4 trillion, and the net issuance of local debt was 4.4 trillion, with a total net issuance of government bonds of 7.8 trillion, accounting for nearly 60% of the annual quota. The budget expenditure completion rate in the first half of the year was only about 48%, the same as last year, which may be restricted by the decline in non - tax revenue and the narrow - based infrastructure gap period [8]. 4. Government - Managed Fund Revenue - **Revenue Growth**: In June, national government - managed fund revenue increased by 20.8% year - on - year (previous value: - 8.2%), reaching a new monthly high since 2021. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the first half of the year narrowed to - 2.4%, approaching the annual budget target of 0.7%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in state - owned land use right transfer revenue narrowed to - 6.5% (previous value: - 11.9%) [9]. - **Revenue Progress**: In the first half of the year, government - managed fund revenue completed about 31% of the annual progress, slightly faster than the past two years. However, the real - estate recovery foundation is not solid, and the sustainability of the stabilization of land transfer revenue remains to be observed. Policy - side efforts such as urban renewal may become new directions [9]. 5. Government - Managed Fund Expenditure - **Expenditure Growth**: In June, national government - managed fund expenditure increased by 79.2% year - on - year, up 70 percentage points from the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first half of the year was 30.0%, exceeding the annual budget target of 23.1%, and the annual budget completion rate was about 37%, significantly faster than the same period last year [10]. - **Reasons for Growth**: The significant increase in government - managed fund expenditure is due to the continuous marginal improvement of land transfer revenue and the accelerated issuance and use of special bonds. In addition, the 500 - billion - yuan central financial institution capital - injection special treasury bonds for supporting large - state - owned commercial banks were issued in four installments from late April to early June, and most of them may have formed expenditures in June, supporting the year - on - year growth of central - level government - managed fund expenditure to reach 600% [10].