主要经济体宏观经济展望 我们对2026年的预测反映了全球经济正在适应2025年实施的政策转变。我们预计，主要经济体中将会出 现几个关键主题，并存在一些潜在风险。 我们预计美国经济将继续保持韧性，在发达市场中保持增长领先地位，实际GDP增长2.4%。我们认 为，美国劳动力供应压力的缓解以及AI主导的商业投资加速将为经济提供支撑。劳动力市场状况将改 善，在经历三年小幅上升后，失业率到年底将降至4.0%。尽管我们预计2025年由关税引发的通胀压力 会有所缓解，但核心服务通胀将令美联储保持谨慎。在全新更偏鸽派的领导层管理下，我们预计美联储 将在2026年6月和9月各降息一次。 12月18日金融一线消息，野村发布全球宏观经济展望称，预计人工智能驱动的投资热潮以及更具支持性 的货币与财政政策将在2026年持续推动全球经济强劲增长。 全球经济在2025年的增长超出我们的预期，我们预计这一强劲势头将在2026年延续。全球经济，尤其是 美国经济，在面对关税、政策不确定性和政治分化时展现出了韧性。虽然全球合作有所减少，并且大多 数国家财政政策发力空间依然紧张，但人工智能引领的投资热潮以及更具支持性的货币与财政政策，为 2026年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Japan's first female Finance Minister, Katsuyuki Mayu, marks a significant shift in the country's political landscape, raising market concerns about future economic policies and the potential impact on the yen's value [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Katsuyuki Mayu's appointment, the yen fell to a low of 150.50 against the dollar before recovering slightly above 151, indicating market uncertainty regarding the new government's economic direction [1]. - The market's initial reaction suggested expectations of increased government spending and a cautious approach to early interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [5][13]. Group 2: Political Significance - The appointment of both Katsuyuki Mayu and Prime Minister Sanna Takashi represents a breaking of significant "glass ceilings" in Japanese politics, with both women holding key leadership roles [3][15]. - This political shift is seen as a potential reformation of Japan's political culture, traditionally dominated by men, with the new leadership symbolizing a progressive change [15]. Group 3: Economic Policy Implications - Katsuyuki Mayu is expected to advocate for expansionary fiscal policies, which may lead to increased government spending, but could also result in further volatility in the yen's exchange rate [5][14]. - The current economic environment presents challenges, including rising inflation and a weakening yen, complicating the fiscal and monetary policy landscape compared to the era of Abenomics [14][16]. Group 4: Future Challenges - The coordination between fiscal policy under Katsuyuki Mayu and monetary policy from the Bank of Japan will be crucial in addressing rising living costs and maintaining economic stability [16][17]. - The upcoming months will be critical as the government navigates pressures from both domestic economic conditions and external influences, particularly from Washington regarding interest rate policies [16][17].

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced a slight decline, reaching $3224.20 per ounce, with a decrease of 0.16% [1] - Gold opened at $3229.40 per ounce, peaked at $3232.50, and hit a low of $3204.13 during the trading session [1] Group 2 - Following President Trump's implementation of comprehensive "reciprocal tariffs," U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year yield exceeding 4.5% and the 30-year yield touching 5% [2] - The Trump administration abandoned the most severe tariffs due to concerns over potential financial panic and increased consumer interest rates [2] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has led to a return of long-term Treasury yields to previous levels, raising questions about the status of U.S. debt as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3 - Gold prices are supported above $3204.00 and face resistance below $3250.00, indicating a potential upward trend after a short-term decline [4] - If gold stabilizes above $3208.00 today, the upward target could be between $3254.00 and $3275.00 [4] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified at $3253.00 to $3254.00, with significant support at $3208.00 to $3209.00 [4]