Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Oscillation" [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices closed down in an oscillatory manner due to the interplay of bullish and bearish factors. Short - term gold price trends will be volatile, and investors are advised to watch for buying opportunities during pullbacks [1][5] - The Middle East situation dominates the market trend. Gold prices initially rose due to避险情绪 but later fell. Future stagflation risks and fiscal deficit pressure from increased US military spending will drive gold prices up [3] Summary of Each Section 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) decreased by 56.8%, and the domestic - foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) decreased by 57.5%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory decreased by 0.0%, and the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.72%. The SPDR ETF holding volume decreased by 2.54%, and the CFTC gold speculative net long positions increased by 0.9%. The US Treasury bond yield increased by 4.5%, the US dollar index increased by 1.34%, and the SOFR decreased by 0.3%. The US 10 - year break - even inflation rate increased by 2.90%, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.0%, and the VIX volatility index increased by 48.5%. The gold cross - market arbitrage trading increased by 1.6%, and the US 10 - year real interest rate increased by 5.0% [11] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index rose 1.41%, the US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.14%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.02%, and the VIX index rebounded to 29.5. The US overnight secured financing rate was 3.66%, oil prices soared 33.1%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.35%. The real interest rate rose to 1.78%, and the gold price fell 2%. The spot commodity index closed up, and the US dollar index rose 1.41% [15][18][22] 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets all declined, with the S&P 500 falling 2.02%. Most emerging - market stock markets declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.93%. US and German bonds yields rose, with a US - Germany yield spread of 1.28%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.63%, and the Japanese bond yield was 2.17%. The euro depreciated 1.67%, the pound depreciated 0.53%, the yen depreciated 1.11%, the Swiss franc depreciated 0.87%, and the US dollar index rose 1.41% to 98.9, causing non - US currencies to depreciate [23][29][30] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative position data showed that the SPDR Gold ETF holding volume dropped to 1073 tons. The RMB stopped rising and started to depreciate, with the domestic market at a discount to the foreign market. Gold and silver prices declined, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded to 61 [36][39] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - On Monday, China's February CPI and social financing data were released; on Tuesday, China's February import and export data; on Wednesday, the US February CPI; on Thursday, the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in the afternoon, and the US February PPI and initial jobless claims were released; on Friday, the US Q4 GDP revised value was released [41]

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper fell by 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton [1][14] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 4.03% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons [1][14] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises is expected to drop by 28.52% to 38.36% next week due to the upcoming Spring Festival [1][14] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 5.07% to ¥23,300 per ton [2][15] - Domestic aluminum rod inventory increased by 15,000 tons week-on-week, reaching 258,500 tons [2][15] - The overall aluminum processing operating rate recorded 57.9%, a decrease of 1.5% week-on-week, indicating a significant divergence within the sector [2][15] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, while the 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 1.88% [3][16] - SPDR gold holdings decreased by 10.87 tons to 1,076.23 tons, reflecting market dynamics influenced by geopolitical risks [3][16] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve reached its steepest level in nearly four years, indicating rising concerns over inflation and fiscal deficits [3][16] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 1.20% this week, with December exports of rare earth permanent magnets showing a year-on-year increase of 7% [4][35] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is anticipated to boost future demand for rare earths [4][35] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangxi Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten price increased by 11.98% this week, driven by tight supply conditions and increased strategic reserves in the U.S. [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" by U.S. lawmakers is expected to elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - Recommended companies include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4][38] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 13.3% to ¥148,000 per ton, while lithium hydroxide fell by 11.6% to ¥150,000 per ton [4][53] - Total lithium carbonate production this week was 20,700 tons, reflecting a slight decrease [4][53] - Market sentiment remains cautious as downstream purchasing activity is expected to slow down as inventory levels stabilize [4][53] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices remained stable [5][54] - The market for cobalt intermediates is characterized by limited transactions, with prices holding steady amid geopolitical supply concerns [5][54] - Long-term structural shortages in raw materials may support future price increases [5][54]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing a decrease in prices, with LME copper down 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton and Shanghai copper down 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton. Supply-side indicators show an increase in copper inventory and a decrease in processing fees, while demand remains stable due to ongoing orders from major clients [1][14] - The aluminum market has seen LME aluminum prices drop by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, with domestic aluminum rod inventory increasing. The overall operating rate for aluminum processing has decreased, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2][15] - Gold prices have risen by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The market is showing strong volatility, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts and inflation concerns [3][16] - The rare earth sector is witnessing price increases, particularly in praseodymium and neodymium, with exports showing signs of recovery. The report suggests a positive outlook for demand and pricing in this sector [4][35] - Tungsten prices have increased significantly, supported by tight supply conditions and strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. The report indicates a bullish outlook for tungsten prices [4][38] - Lithium prices have decreased, with carbonate lithium averaging ¥148,000 per ton, reflecting a decline in production and market adjustments. The report notes a potential turning point in the lithium market [4][52] - Cobalt prices have decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with market conditions remaining stable but facing supply concerns. The report anticipates upward pressure on prices in the long term due to structural shortages [5][53] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, with an increase in domestic inventory and a decrease in processing fees. The operating rate for copper processing is expected to decline as the industry approaches the Chinese New Year [1][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price fell by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, with an increase in aluminum rod inventory. The overall operating rate for aluminum processing decreased, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2][15] Precious Metals - Gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The market is experiencing strong volatility [3][16] Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium increased, with exports showing signs of recovery. The report suggests a positive outlook for demand and pricing in this sector [4][35] Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased significantly, supported by tight supply conditions and strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. The report indicates a bullish outlook for tungsten prices [4][38] Lithium - Lithium prices decreased, with carbonate lithium averaging ¥148,000 per ton. The report notes a potential turning point in the lithium market [4][52] Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with market conditions remaining stable but facing supply concerns. The report anticipates upward pressure on prices in the long term [5][53]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has reached its steepest level in nearly four years, influenced by rising expectations for interest rate cuts, concerns about inflation persistence, and fiscal deficit pressures [1]. Group 1 - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds has widened to 73.7 basis points, nearing the high of 73.8 basis points reached in April 2025 [1]. - This yield spread is the highest level observed since January 2022 [1].