Core Viewpoint - The stock of Jiexin International Resources (03858) has seen a significant increase, driven by a strong recovery in the tungsten market post-holiday, with major companies raising long-term prices, indicating bullish market expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Jiexin International Resources' stock rose over 6% in early trading, currently up 5.12% at HKD 89.25, with a trading volume of HKD 66.1346 million [1] - The average price of black tungsten concentrate reached a record high of CNY 733,500 per standard ton on February 25, marking a year-to-date increase of 61.74% [1] - Ammonium paratungstate (APT) also saw a year-to-date increase of 61.94% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Major tungsten companies, including Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry (002378) and Xianglu Tungsten Industry (002842), have continued to raise long-term pricing, reinforcing bullish market expectations [1] - European tungsten market is experiencing a shortage in downstream inventory, contributing to a strong price increase during the holiday period, leading to a global price surge in tungsten [1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Guojin Securities noted that U.S. lawmakers proposed a "strategic resilience reserve" with a scale of USD 2.5 billion, which may elevate tungsten's priority in overseas strategic reserves [1] - China's announcement regarding strengthened export controls on dual-use items to Japan and the U.S. President's plan to increase military spending to USD 1.5 trillion for the fiscal year 2027 may support continued high inventory levels abroad, further bolstering prices [1]

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper fell by 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton [1][14] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 4.03% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons [1][14] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises is expected to drop by 28.52% to 38.36% next week due to the upcoming Spring Festival [1][14] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 5.07% to ¥23,300 per ton [2][15] - Domestic aluminum rod inventory increased by 15,000 tons week-on-week, reaching 258,500 tons [2][15] - The overall aluminum processing operating rate recorded 57.9%, a decrease of 1.5% week-on-week, indicating a significant divergence within the sector [2][15] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, while the 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 1.88% [3][16] - SPDR gold holdings decreased by 10.87 tons to 1,076.23 tons, reflecting market dynamics influenced by geopolitical risks [3][16] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve reached its steepest level in nearly four years, indicating rising concerns over inflation and fiscal deficits [3][16] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 1.20% this week, with December exports of rare earth permanent magnets showing a year-on-year increase of 7% [4][35] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is anticipated to boost future demand for rare earths [4][35] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangxi Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten price increased by 11.98% this week, driven by tight supply conditions and increased strategic reserves in the U.S. [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" by U.S. lawmakers is expected to elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - Recommended companies include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4][38] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 13.3% to ¥148,000 per ton, while lithium hydroxide fell by 11.6% to ¥150,000 per ton [4][53] - Total lithium carbonate production this week was 20,700 tons, reflecting a slight decrease [4][53] - Market sentiment remains cautious as downstream purchasing activity is expected to slow down as inventory levels stabilize [4][53] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices remained stable [5][54] - The market for cobalt intermediates is characterized by limited transactions, with prices holding steady amid geopolitical supply concerns [5][54] - Long-term structural shortages in raw materials may support future price increases [5][54]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing a decrease in prices, with LME copper down 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton and Shanghai copper down 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton. Supply-side indicators show an increase in copper inventory and a decrease in processing fees, while demand remains stable due to ongoing orders from major clients [1][14] - The aluminum market has seen LME aluminum prices drop by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, with domestic aluminum rod inventory increasing. The overall operating rate for aluminum processing has decreased, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2][15] - Gold prices have risen by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The market is showing strong volatility, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts and inflation concerns [3][16] - The rare earth sector is witnessing price increases, particularly in praseodymium and neodymium, with exports showing signs of recovery. The report suggests a positive outlook for demand and pricing in this sector [4][35] - Tungsten prices have increased significantly, supported by tight supply conditions and strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. The report indicates a bullish outlook for tungsten prices [4][38] - Lithium prices have decreased, with carbonate lithium averaging ¥148,000 per ton, reflecting a decline in production and market adjustments. The report notes a potential turning point in the lithium market [4][52] - Cobalt prices have decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with market conditions remaining stable but facing supply concerns. The report anticipates upward pressure on prices in the long term due to structural shortages [5][53] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, with an increase in domestic inventory and a decrease in processing fees. The operating rate for copper processing is expected to decline as the industry approaches the Chinese New Year [1][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price fell by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, with an increase in aluminum rod inventory. The overall operating rate for aluminum processing decreased, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2][15] Precious Metals - Gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The market is experiencing strong volatility [3][16] Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium increased, with exports showing signs of recovery. The report suggests a positive outlook for demand and pricing in this sector [4][35] Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased significantly, supported by tight supply conditions and strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. The report indicates a bullish outlook for tungsten prices [4][38] Lithium - Lithium prices decreased, with carbonate lithium averaging ¥148,000 per ton. The report notes a potential turning point in the lithium market [4][52] Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with market conditions remaining stable but facing supply concerns. The report anticipates upward pressure on prices in the long term [5][53]

Group 1: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 748,700 CNY/ton, an increase of 11.03% month-on-month [3] - The price of dysprosium oxide is 1,330,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10.74% month-on-month [3] - The price of terbium oxide is 6,100,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.98% month-on-month [3] - The processing fee for yttrium-rich europium ore has risen to 41,000 CNY/ton, indicating ongoing optimization in the smelting industry [3] - December's rare earth permanent magnet exports decreased by 3% month-on-month but increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the month [3] - The rare earth sector is expected to see valuation and performance improvements, with 2026 being a critical year for resolving industry competition [3] Group 2: Tin - The price of tin ingots is 423,600 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.17% month-on-month [4] - The upward price trend is supported by lower-than-expected supply from Indonesia and Myanmar [4] - The demand side is expected to benefit from AI advancements and the recovery of the semiconductor industry [4] - Recommended stocks include Huaxi Nonferrous Metals and others [4] Group 3: Tungsten - The price of tungsten concentrate is 600,700 CNY/ton, an increase of 19.24% month-on-month [4] - The price of ammonium paratungstate is 890,600 CNY/ton, an increase of 19.49% month-on-month [4] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may increase tungsten's priority [4] - Recommended stocks include Zhongtung High-tech and others [4] Group 4: Antimony - The price of antimony ingots is 164,100 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.26% month-on-month [5] - The price of antimony concentrate is 141,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.27% month-on-month [5] - December's antimony exports increased by 4% month-on-month but decreased by 71% year-on-year [5] - The global antimony price trend remains upward due to supply shortages and steady demand [5] Group 5: Molybdenum - The price of molybdenum concentrate is 4,010 CNY/ton, remaining stable month-on-month [6] - The price of molybdenum iron is 256,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.79% month-on-month [6] - The ongoing low inventory levels and increased defense spending may further support molybdenum prices [6] - Recommended stocks include Jinduicheng Molybdenum and Guocheng Mining [6]

Investment Ratings - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper and aluminum sectors, with expectations of stable production and demand recovery [2][3][13] Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton on LME, while domestic prices rose by 2.31% to 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints and stable production rates are noted, with a slight decrease in operating rates expected due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][14] - Aluminum prices rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton on LME, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report highlights a seasonal decline in production rates and a high operating rate in alumina plants, despite a slight increase in inventory levels [3][15] - Gold prices surged by 8.58% to $5,410.8 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The report emphasizes the impact of U.S. monetary policy on gold prices [4][16] - The rare earth sector shows a positive trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increasing by 11.30%. The report anticipates a favorable demand outlook due to easing export restrictions [5][34] - Tungsten prices rose by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. and increasing demand in military applications [5][36] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton, with domestic prices at 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints are evident, with a decrease in copper processing fees [2][14] - Operating rates for copper cable enterprises increased to 59.46%, indicating stable production driven by prior orders [2][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report notes a decrease in operating rates due to seasonal factors [3][15] - The overall aluminum processing rate recorded at 59.4%, reflecting a seasonal decline in demand [3][15] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold price reaching $5,410.8 per ounce. The report discusses the implications of U.S. monetary policy on gold market dynamics [4][16] Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 11.30%, with expectations of increased demand due to favorable export conditions [5][34] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the rare earth sector driven by supply constraints and demand recovery [5][34] Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives and military demand [5][36] - The report suggests that the tungsten sector may benefit from ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased defense spending [5][36]

Core Viewpoint - Jaxin International Resources (03858) has seen its stock price rise over 4%, reaching a new high since its listing, with a current price of 87.8 HKD and a trading volume of 35.04 million HKD [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of January 26, tungsten concentrate prices are approaching 550,000 RMB per ton, ammonium paratungstate prices have surpassed 800,000 RMB per ton, and tungsten powder prices have exceeded 1,300,000 RMB per ton [1] - The supply of tungsten remains tight due to the lack of issued indicators and a recent clearance of scrap tungsten before the holiday, which has strengthened price support [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - Recent proposals from U.S. bipartisan lawmakers to establish a "strategic resilience reserve" with a scale of 2.5 billion USD may increase the priority of tungsten in overseas strategic stockpiling [1] Group 3: Company Positioning - First Shanghai indicates that the company is a rare pure tungsten mining target in the market, with its current stock price offering high safety margins and attractiveness [1] - CICC's research report highlights the company's focus on the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan, expressing strong confidence in the company due to the expected tight global tungsten supply-demand balance and the potential for steady price increases [1] - The company is positioned to become a leading player in the mining sector in Central Asia, supported by four core competitive advantages [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - COMEX gold price increased by 2.26% to $4620.5 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks, resulting in a strong market fluctuation [4] - LME copper price rose by 1.41% to $13148.5 per ton, while Shanghai copper decreased by 0.63% to ¥100,800 per ton [2] - LME aluminum price increased by 0.71% to $3171.5 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum fell by 1.66% to ¥23,900 per ton [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper inventory in major regions increased by 17.2% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 212,800 tons [2] - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity reached 110.32 million tons per year, with an operating rate of 80.82% [3] - Rare earth exports in November increased by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the same period [5] Group 3: Price Movements - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 8.01% this week [5] - Tungsten concentrate price increased by 6.33% due to tight supply conditions [5] - Lithium carbonate price rose by 20.1% to ¥158,300 per ton, while lithium hydroxide price increased by 21.2% to ¥153,700 per ton [5] Group 4: Industry Insights - The copper wire and cable industry is expected to see a decrease in operating rates due to weak downstream consumption [2] - High aluminum prices are suppressing downstream consumption and industry operating rates [3] - The demand for enameled wire is supported by the peak season effect in the home appliance industry [2]

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 1.41% to $13,148.5 per ton, while Shanghai copper decreased by 0.63% to ¥100,800 per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 17.2% week-on-week, with total inventory up by 21,280 tons year-on-year [1] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises rose to 75.90%, with expectations of a slight decrease next week [1] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 0.71% to $3,171.5 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum fell by 1.66% to ¥23,900 per ton [2] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.2% due to pre-holiday inventory demand [2] - The total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina is 11,032 million tons/year, with an operating capacity of 8,916 million tons/year [2] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 2.26% to $4,620.5 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 10.24 tons to 1,074.8 tons [3] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market, with concerns over U.S. military actions against Iran [3] - The 10-year TIPS decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 1.88% [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 8.01%, with exports of rare earth permanent magnets reaching a historical high [4] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is anticipated to boost future demand [4] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth [4] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten concentrate price rose by 6.33%, with supply remaining tight due to pre-holiday clearances [4] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may increase tungsten's priority [4] - Companies to focus on include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4] Group 6: Tin - Tin price increased by 7.55%, with inventory levels still acceptable despite recent accumulation [4] - Supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations, supporting an upward price trend [4] - Companies to consider include Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Nonferrous [4] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate rose by 20.1% to ¥158,300 per ton, while lithium hydroxide increased by 21.2% to ¥153,700 per ton [4] - Total lithium carbonate production reached 22,600 tons, with a slight increase week-on-week [4] - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to low inventory and high demand [4] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 1.3% to ¥454,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices increased by 0.6% to $25.38 per pound [5] - The market is experiencing cautious purchasing behavior due to high cost pressures [5] - The price of cobalt salts continues to rise, providing support for electric cobalt prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - A new bipartisan bill in the U.S. aims to establish a $2.5 billion "Strategic Resilience Reserve" to stockpile critical minerals, reducing dependence on external supply chains and ensuring stable raw material supply for domestic technology and manufacturing [1] Group 1: Legislative Developments - The proposed legislation, named the "SECURE Minerals Act," will be introduced by Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Todd Young, along with Representatives John Moolenaar and Rob Wittman [1] - The bill will create a critical minerals trading center, functioning similarly to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in terms of physical storage and resembling the Federal Reserve in governance [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Several nuclear power-related stocks have seen significant gains, with Talen Energy (TLN.US) rising over 10%, Vistra Energy (VST.US) increasing by more than 7.5%, Energy Fuels (UUUU.US) up over 5%, and Constellation Energy (CEG.US) nearly 4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers is set to introduce a new bill to establish a $2.5 billion Strategic Resilience Reserve aimed at securing critical minerals and reducing dependence on external supply chains [1] Group 1: Legislative Proposal - The proposed legislation, named the SECURE Minerals Act, will be introduced by Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Todd Young, along with Representatives John Moolenaar and Rob Wittman [1] - The bill aims to create a critical minerals trading center, functioning similarly to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The reserve will be overseen by a seven-member committee appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, mirroring the governance structure of the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The initiative is designed to enhance U.S. economic resilience and support high-paying jobs in key sectors such as aerospace, automotive, and technology [2] - The initial investment of $2.5 billion may be expanded if the bill passes, similar to the funding model of the CHIPS and Science Act, which authorized approximately $280 billion for semiconductor and scientific research [2] Group 3: Strategic Goals - The Strategic Resilience Reserve aims to establish a domestic critical minerals market, enhancing U.S. production capacity and ensuring a stable long-term supply for American businesses [3] - The competition for global rare earth and other raw materials is intensifying, with the U.S. seeking to gain greater autonomy and bargaining power in this global mineral race [3]