2025年岁末，全球经济仍在波动中寻找复苏节奏，而中国经济已在政策合力下展现出韧性底色。 随着中央经济工作会议敲定"稳中求进、提质增效"的2026年基调，"十五五"开局之年，中国经济如何平衡短期修复与长期转型？ 该如何实现消费的长期可持续增长？汇率稳中有升，如何看基本面支撑与风险挑战的博弈？强化"内循环"与推进"高水平对外开 放"这两大战略，又该如何协同发力？ 针对多个热点话题，北京商报记者专访了清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩。在他看来，通过 多领域、多层次政策组合拳，有望缓解居民重点领域预防性储蓄压力，稳定收入预期与消费信心，释放消费潜能，为经济高质量 发展提供动力。 北京商报：2025年，一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台，各项促消费政策也呈现出从"增量拉动"到"结构优化"的转变。您如何评价这 种政策逻辑转换的必要性与有效性？展望2026年，要真正实现消费的长期可持续增长，政策工具箱需在哪些关键机制上实现突 破？ 田轩：2025年消费政策从"增量拉动"转向"结构优化"，是中国经济从高速增长转向高质量发展在消费领域的必然要求，有现实必 要性与战略前瞻性。 从必要性看，传统增量刺激政策有 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that China's economic growth remains resilient and within a reasonable range, with structural improvements in the economy, despite global uncertainties. It is expected that policies will accelerate in the second half of the year to enhance public sentiment and stabilize expectations, leading to qualitative and quantitative economic growth [1] Group 2 - Expanding consumption subsidies and tapping into endogenous potential is a key task for policies in the second half of the year. The consumption market contributed over half to economic growth in the first half, with service consumption showing strong performance, evidenced by a 5.3% year-on-year increase in service retail sales, outpacing goods retail growth [2] - The rise of "new consumption" trends, particularly among younger demographics, is noteworthy. Preferences for cultural and tourism products are increasing, indicating a shift in consumption structure and habits, which should be supported by consumption policies [2] Group 3 - Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing growth. Increased fiscal spending is anticipated in the second half to enhance public perception of government efforts to expand domestic demand. Suggestions include executing budgets effectively for consumption subsidies and accelerating infrastructure investments [3] - Monetary policy is expected to strengthen further, with improvements in liquidity and a focus on optimizing benchmark interest rates and liquidity provisions to better support the real economy and new consumption demands [3] - The year 2025 is critical for transitioning between the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, necessitating policy designs that address both short-term fluctuations and long-term structural reforms [3]

5月12日，中美双方发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明。外部环境发生变化，A股表现相对平淡，原因 是什么？窄幅震荡的国债，后续是否会自高位回调？一起来看看机构的观点。 弘业期货股指研究员平帅表示，5月13日，上证指数高开后小幅回落，市场出现大量卖盘，导致指数下 跌，但全天行情波动较小，反映出部分高位持仓的投资者在中美经贸会谈联合声明发布后，倾向于平 仓。不过，从月内上证指数整体走势来看，运行中枢逐渐上移，目前已修复本轮中美关税争端导致的全 部回调，叠加关税下降为相关企业带来实质性利好，一段时间内做多指数的热情势必回升。 "从A股表现来看，市场已经定价关税争端缓和预期，股指反弹至4月初的水平。前期各方资金入市，稳 定市场预期的效果显著。"银河期货金融衍生品分析师孙锋解释，利多公布后，市场高开低走，是A股 近年来的常见现象，特别是2024年国庆节假期后的高开低走，使投资者情绪更加稳定，也更加平淡地看 待利多。 分板块来看，弘业期货股指研究员平帅表示，5月13日，A股一改近期交易主线，军工、船舶等板块悉 数回调，而与外贸、消费以及新能源相关的板块领涨，关税下降提振了相关企业的盈利预期及估值水 平。对指数来说，目前大盘指 ...