南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 哈西特成继任热门人选 哈西特被认为与特朗普的经济观点高度一致，包括认为需要进一步降低利率。他11月20日还曾扬言，如 果他担任美联储主席，他会"立即降息"，因为"数据显示我们应该这样做"。他同时还批评了美联储在新 冠疫情后未能控制通胀。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲对21世纪经济报道记者表示，作为白宫国家经济委员会主任的哈西特成为热 门人选，其背后体现出了特朗普对于美联储主席的选择偏好。从背景上来看，哈西特在特朗普首任任期 内便作为顾问参与减税法案（TCJA）和"美国制造"等政策理念的设计，其对特朗普经济理念的熟悉和 认可程度使得其相较其他候选人更具优势，而其在本届政府中依旧担任重要经济政策制定的职务也从侧 面反映了特朗普对其本人在政治层面上的信赖。 同时，哈西特作为候选人中唯一在政府任职的"白宫系"代表，也被认为在政治上更易协调财政与货币政 策，能够与特朗普合作良好并执行其降息理念。因此，综合来看，芦哲认为，哈西特成为主席热门人选 并不意外。 方德证券高级分析师廖偲琴对21世纪经济报道记者分析称，哈西特成为下任美联储主席的热门人选，是 当前市场关注的核心变量之一。哈西特政策思 ...

Political Context - On October 21, 2025, Sanna Takichi was elected as Japan's 104th Prime Minister with support from the Japan Innovation Party, despite challenges from the Komeito party's exit from the ruling coalition[2][3] - The new government is expected to maintain a loose fiscal policy, but may need to compromise on specific policies due to political capital depletion during cabinet formation[5] Economic Policy - The new ruling coalition has shifted towards more expansionary fiscal policies compared to the previous Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito coalition, focusing on inflation mitigation measures such as abolishing temporary gasoline taxes and exempting food consumption taxes for two years[4][9] - The coalition's economic strategy includes increased public investment in semiconductor, AI, energy security, and defense, aiming to support domestic demand and improve income expectations for businesses and residents[5] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to avoid raising interest rates in the early days of the new government, with expectations of maintaining a loose monetary policy stance[5][6] - Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has exceeded the 2% target for 37 consecutive months, indicating a need for reevaluation of the yen's real exchange rate[6] Market Implications - Short-term market reactions may revert to "Takichi trading," characterized by rising Japanese stocks, increasing bond yields, and yen depreciation[6] - Long-term, the real exchange rate of the yen requires reassessment, potentially through gradual appreciation or inflation-driven asset price increases[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices due to increased safe-haven buying amid the U.S. government shutdown, with gold reaching a historical high of $3892.60 per ounce and silver hitting a 14-year high [1][3] - The U.S. government shutdown, the first in nearly seven years, is expected to disrupt the jobs of hundreds of thousands of Americans and interrupt many public services, potentially leading to economic impacts such as a spike in unemployment rates [1] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs in the U.S. private sector for September, which was significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 52,000 jobs, further supporting the bullish sentiment in the gold and silver markets [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis for December gold futures shows that bulls have a strong overall recent technical advantage, with the next upward target being to break the solid resistance level of $4000 [2] - The silver futures for December delivery also saw an increase, closing at $47.41 per ounce, reflecting a rise of 1.24% [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will further increase by 6% to reach $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong structural demand from central banks and the Federal Reserve's accommodative policies [1]