日线图上，黄金本周连续三个交易日，刷新历史新高，短期表现十分强势。黄金下方支撑，可以关注亚盘金价冲高遇阻后的回落低点附近4020美 元，其次关注亚盘金价突破整数位置4000美元；黄金上方压力，关注日内高点，也是目前历史高点附近4050美元的突破情况，进一步上涨则顺势上 看，上不猜顶，上方空间可以暂时关注4100美元整数关口。5日均线与MACD指标金叉向上，RSI指标超买区金叉向上，KDJ指标超买区金叉轻微下 拐，短期技术面显示多方保持优势，黄金连续冲高处于超买状态，市场看涨情绪强烈。 Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，本周黄金继续大涨，连续突破3900美元和4000美元整数关口，继续保持上升趋势，降息预期与避险买盘，是支 撑金价冲高的重要因素。具体来看，市场对美联储进一步降息的预期持续升温，是支撑黄金价格上涨的核心动力，为金价提供了重要的底部支撑， 美联储在9月已经降息25个基点，截止10月8日，市场预期10月降息25个基点的概率是94%，12月累计降息50个基点的概率是81%；地缘政治风险， 是近期推动黄金加速大涨的新动力来源，主要事件是美国政府停摆进入第二周，市场对政府长期关门的担忧加剧，恐慌情绪 ...

来源：黄力晨 昨日周一我们认为，市场对美联储进一步降息的预期升温，对美国政府长期停摆的担忧加剧，在降息预期与避险买盘的支撑下， 黄金价格再创历史新高，走势继续保持上升趋势，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑可以关注3920和3900美元，上方压力关注3950 美元附近的突破情况，若金价进一步上涨，继续刷新历史新高，则顺势上看，上不猜顶。从之后的走势看，昨日周一欧盘盘中， 黄金在刷新历史高点3949美元后，走势震荡回落，美盘开盘后跌至3926美元企稳，在第二次回落试探3926美元支撑后，黄金震荡 上涨，继续刷新历史新高至3970美元；周二开盘，黄金继续冲高，刷新历史新高至3977美元，亚盘盘中金价三次试探这里遇阻回 落，欧盘跌至3940美元企稳，目前暂时交投于3960美元附近。总体来看，黄金回落接近我们给出的3920美元支撑企稳上涨，继续 刷新历史新高，走势维持上升趋势。Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，本周黄金再创历史新高，除了市场对美联储进一步降息的 预期升温，为黄金提供重要的底部支撑外，美国政府停摆危机与法国政治危机，加强黄金避险买盘，也为金价的上涨提供了助 力。具体来看，美联储9月降息25个基点，市场 ...

日线图上，黄金在上周突破3800美元整数关口后，本周进一步突破3900美元整数关口，表现十分强势。黄金下方支撑，可以关注 早间金价冲高遇阻位置3920美元，金价在突破这里后，回落试探3920美元企稳继续上涨，其次关注3900美元整数关口，早间金价 冲高遇阻后，回落这里企稳继续上涨；黄金上方压力，关注目前日内高点位置3950美元，这也是历史高点位置，进一步上涨则顺 势上看，上不猜顶。5日均线与MACD指标金叉向上，KDJ与RSI指标超买区金叉向上，短期技术面显示多方继续占据优势，且黄 金处于超买状态，表明市场看涨情绪强烈。 黄金日内参考：市场对美联储进一步降息的预期升温，对美国政府长期停摆的担忧加剧，这支撑黄金价格上涨，再创历史新高。 操作上建议震荡思路对待，下方支撑可以关注3920美元，其次3900美元，上方压力关注3950美元附近的突破情况，进一步上涨则 顺势上看，上不猜顶。 Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，本周一黄金开盘冲高，这是连续第八周上涨，也是连续第六周刷新历史新高，表示可以说是 十分强势，降息预期与避险买盘，仍是支撑黄金上涨的主要因素。具体来看，美联储9月降息25个基点后，市场对年内降息 ...

就业报告提振黄金和白银市场。报告支持美国货币政策鸽派阵营，有利于快速降息。 新华财经纽约10月1日电 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价1日上涨5.30美 元，收于每盎司3892.60美元，涨幅为0.14%。 因美国政府关门，避险买盘盛行，当天金价创下历史新高，白银价格大幅上涨，创14年新高。 由于医疗补贴僵局，美国政府近七年来首次停摆，除基本职能外，其他部门停摆。政府停摆将扰乱数十 万美国人的工作，中断许多公共服务，并可能造成经济影响，包括失业率飙升。预计3日发布的劳工部9 月份就业形势报告将延迟发布。 美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）1日发布的数据显示，今年9月美国私营部门就业人数减少3.2万人，远 低于增加5.2个就业岗位的市场预期。8月修正后就业人数减少3000人。 （文章来源：新华财经） 今年以来金价已飙升逾48%，有望创下1979年以来最大年度涨幅。银价正接近1980年创下的略高于50美 元的历史高点。 得益于各国央行强劲的结构性需求，以及美联储的宽松政策，高盛预测，到 2026 年中期，金价将进一 步上涨 6%，升至每盎司4000美元。 技术层面，12月黄金期货多头拥有 ...

值得注意的是，当前黄金与白银的牛市已经进入成熟阶段，但价格的加速上行意味着未来可能迎来阶段 性顶部的风险。从时间角度来看，市场或许在较短周期内面临回调压力，但从价格空间上看，黄金和白 银在当前阶段仍具备进一步上行潜力。FPG 财盛国际认为，投资者在布局过程中应兼顾短期避险与长 期配置价值，关注未来可能出现的高位震荡与潜在回调。 责任编辑：陈平 在外围市场表现方面，美元指数走弱，原油价格大幅下跌至每桶 63.50 美元附近，基准 10 年期美债收 益率维持在 4.15% 左右。FPG 财盛国际认为，美元的走软与能源市场的回落，为黄金和白银提供了额 外的上行动能。 技术面上，12 月黄金期货多头依旧保持强劲优势。多头的下一个目标是突破 4000 美元关口，而空头则 需将价格压低至 3700 美元以下以打开下行空间。近期阻力位位于 3875 美元和 3900 美元，支撑位则在 3800 美元以及 3785.50 美元。12 月白银期货亦显示强劲的多头趋势，上行目标指向 50.00 美元，下方关 键支撑位则在 44.00 美元。FPG 财盛国际认为，目前市场情绪与技术格局均偏向多头，金银的上涨动能 仍有延续空间。 9 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results on September 22, with the main silver contract rising over 3% and gold contracts increasing by more than 2% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1459.65 points, up 7.48 points or 0.52% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals remain the market's highlight, with silver prices continuing to rise and spot gold prices surpassing $3700 per ounce, reaching new highs [2] - The market sentiment for gold and silver is overwhelmingly bullish due to ongoing positive factors and increased safe-haven buying amid rising risks of a U.S. government shutdown [2] Group 3: Shipping and Transportation - The shipping index (European line) experienced a rebound, attributed to emotional recovery after a significant drop last week due to airline pricing adjustments during the off-season [2] - The market sentiment for shipping is stabilizing as the main contract transitions to a relatively busier season, with cautious expectations for further price declines [2] Group 4: Other Commodities - Oilseeds and oils showed an overall rebound, with prices for various soybean and oil products rising approximately 1% [3] - The main contract for polysilicon saw a significant decline of 3.63%, driven by a lack of new stimulus from policies and a still loose supply-demand balance [4] Group 5: Oil and Gas Sector - The SC crude oil main contract fell by 1.67%, with a general downturn in the oil and gas sector as demand weakens with the arrival of the off-season [4] - Despite geopolitical tensions potentially affecting oil supply, the overall market is expected to face a widening supply-demand surplus, leading to a bearish outlook for crude oil prices [4]

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced profit-taking, dropping below $3,680 after reaching a record high of $3,703 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce is considering imposing tariffs on more imported auto parts based on national security reasons, which could benefit gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - Gold prices have risen over 40% this year due to geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the global economy [2] Group 2 - Investors and analysts widely expect gold prices to continue rising, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach around $5,000 per ounce [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices may continue to rise, with a cautious approach recommended for high positions, as a correction may occur if prices do not break above $3,705 [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures contract reported a price of 782.72 CNY per gram, with a slight increase of 0.16% [1] - The London gold and silver prices rose by 0.1% and 0.11% respectively, closing at 3396.495 USD per ounce and 38.56 USD per ounce [1] - The Shanghai silver futures contract increased by 0.02%, closing at 9327 CNY per kilogram [1] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 11.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 88.7% [2] - In October, the probability of maintaining rates is 5.5%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability at 49% and a 50 basis point cut at 45.5% [2] Group 3 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was generally dovish, leading to a temporary increase in market bets for a 25 basis point cut in September [3] - The ongoing crisis regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead to higher overall inflation in the U.S. in the long term [3] - The political turmoil in France has renewed safe-haven buying for gold, suggesting that precious metals may continue to experience strong fluctuations at high levels [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 rose by $8.6 to close at $3,451.8 per ounce, marking a 0.25% increase [1] - The rise in gold prices was driven by moderate safe-haven buying amid growing concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September remain supportive for the gold market, with an 88.7% probability according to the latest CME FedWatch tool [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Consumer Data - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. personal income and spending data, as the Federal Reserve is monitoring personal income inflation data [1] - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, set to be released on Friday, is anticipated to provide further insights into the rate cut outlook [1] Group 3: Global Gold Demand - A recent CME report indicates that China and India accounted for over 50% of global gold consumption demand in 2024, driving rapid growth in the derivatives market in Asia [1] - Gold experienced a strong bull market over the past two years, with prices increasing by 12% in 2023 and 29% in 2024, supported by trade policy uncertainty, anticipated rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical risks [1] - Gold is expected to maintain strong performance in 2025, continuing to be viewed as a safe haven asset [1] Group 4: Silver Market Update - Silver prices initially dropped significantly but recovered most of the intraday losses, closing at $39.195 per ounce, down only 1.5 cents or 0.04% from the previous day [2] - During trading, silver prices hit a low of $38.675 per ounce [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising gold prices driven by moderate safe-haven demand amid increasing concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of a rate cut in September [1][2] - On August 27, 2023, the most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 rose by $8.6, closing at $3,451.8 per ounce, with a gain of 0.25% [1] - The market anticipates an 88.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which has slightly increased from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that gold has experienced a strong bull market over the past two years, with prices rising by 12% in 2023 and 29% in 2024, driven by trade policy uncertainty, expected rate cuts in the U.S., and heightened geopolitical risks [2] - Silver prices initially dropped significantly but recovered most of the intraday losses, closing at $39.195 per ounce, down only 1.5 cents or 0.04% from the previous trading day [2] - The report notes that in 2024, China and India contributed over 50% of global gold consumption demand, with significant physical gold bar demand driving rapid growth in the derivatives market in Asia [1]