Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. government has been in a shutdown since October 1, with significant pressure on the economy and social services, particularly affecting the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) for approximately 42 million low-income Americans, which may have run out of funding as of November 1 [1] - The Senate plans to hold a vote on funding bills on the evening of November 3, marking the 34th day of the shutdown, with both Democratic and Republican parties facing increasing political pressure to reach a compromise [1] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) reached a short-term high of 4045.0 but closed near the 4000.0 level, indicating a weak bullish trend with oscillations around the moving averages [5] - The trading strategy suggests attempting to buy on dips around the support level of 3962.0, with targets set at 4000.0 and 4035.0 [6] Market Sentiment - Three Federal Reserve officials expressed their opposition to the recent interest rate cut, indicating that further discussions on rate cuts will occur before the next monetary policy meeting on December 9-10 [2] - The market is closely monitoring the potential for further rate cuts, as the internal debate within the Federal Reserve intensifies [2] Silver (XAGUSD) - Silver prices have shown a rebound, reaching a high of 49.35, with a bullish crossover in the moving averages indicating a potential upward trend [9] - The trading strategy recommends buying on dips around the support level of 48.15, with targets at 49.15 and 49.37 [10]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The core viewpoint is that the gold market is currently supported by safe-haven demand due to ongoing risks of a U.S. government shutdown and uncertainties in fiscal and political matters, but lacks strong buying momentum to break through the $4050 resistance level [2] - Market consensus indicates that gold prices are likely to oscillate between $3900 and $4050 in the short term, with a potential breakout contingent on a sustained decline in the U.S. dollar [2][3] - Technical analysis shows that gold has established a temporary bottom around $3900, with the key resistance at $4050 determining the short-term trend direction [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The focus is on the critical support and resistance levels, with $4050 as the main resistance that needs to be breached for a confirmed short-term bullish trend [3] - If gold prices can stabilize above $4050, subsequent targets would be $4100 and $4150, indicating further potential for upward movement [3] - Conversely, if prices fall below $3980, it would signal a weakening of the rebound momentum, possibly leading to a retest of the $3900 support level [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The gold market is in a sensitive phase influenced by both policy and sentiment, with a weak rebound pattern prevailing due to the interplay of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and easing trade relations [4] - The overall market remains in a weak rebound structure, lacking clear upward momentum [4] Group 4: Trading Strategies - The trading strategy emphasizes the importance of positioning within the current oscillating market, focusing on potential short-term rebounds [5][7] - Key trading levels include a focus on the $4025-$4028 resistance zone for short-term pullback opportunities, with a stop-loss set above $4045 [8] - Downward targets are set at the $3980-$3960 range, where a stabilization signal could prompt a shift back to long positions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector, including gold, is experiencing a rebound driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing safe-haven buying, with significant gains observed in related ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold, saw a significant increase, with spot gold rising by 2% on Monday, marking a six-day streak of hitting intraday historical highs [1] - The non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) increased by over 2%, with a year-to-date gain of 74.44% [1] - The non-ferrous metals ETF has attracted a net inflow of 4.9 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days, bringing its total size to 17.317 billion yuan, making it the only non-ferrous industry ETF exceeding 10 billion yuan in size [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 20th day, causing delays in the release of key economic data [1] - Traders are currently estimating a 99% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with another cut expected in December [1] Group 3: ETF Composition - The non-ferrous metals ETF tracks the CSI Zhongshan Shunwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index, covering key sectors such as copper, aluminum, lithium, rare earths, and gold [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include leading companies in the non-ferrous sector, such as Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and China Aluminum [1]

Group 1 - Spot gold has reached a new historical high, breaking through $4,380 per ounce, with the gold ETF (159937) rising by 2.35% and over 60% increase year-to-date [1] - The gold ETF (159937) has seen continuous inflows, with a total inflow of 5.509 billion yuan in the last 10 days and a net inflow of 13.251 billion yuan year-to-date, bringing its latest scale to 39.257 billion yuan, ranking among the top in its category [1] - The rise in gold prices is primarily supported by market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing safe-haven buying, with investors closely monitoring trade developments and upcoming U.S. inflation data [1] Group 2 - Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio recently expressed views on gold, suggesting that a reasonable allocation of gold in most investors' portfolios is between 10% to 15% [2] - Gold has increasingly replaced U.S. Treasury bonds in many investment portfolios, especially among central banks and large institutional investors, becoming a "risk-free asset" [2] - Historically, gold has proven to be a currency and store of wealth with intrinsic value, remaining resilient despite the disappearance of approximately 80% of global currencies since 1750 and severe devaluation of the remaining 20% [2]

Group 1 - The price of December gold futures opened higher, reaching a historical high of $4,392.0 per ounce, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and economic conditions in the U.S. [1] - The U.S. government's ongoing "shutdown" and escalating tensions between China and the U.S., along with political instability in France, are contributing to increased safe-haven buying in the gold market [1] - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicated a near-stagnation in U.S. economic activity, with a slight decline in consumer spending and rising prices, reinforcing expectations of at least two interest rate cuts in the coming months [2] Group 2 - Analysts from JPMorgan Asset Management noted a favorable supply-demand dynamic, suggesting significant upside potential in the gold market [3] - Technical analysis of December gold futures shows a strong bullish sentiment, with a key target to break through the resistance level of $4,400, while the bearish target is to breach the important support level of $4,000 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Stable demand for safe-haven assets and technical buying continue to drive gold prices higher, with commodity gold ETFs rising over 2% in early trading [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold ETFs experienced a broad increase of over 2% in early trading due to market influences [1]. - Specific gold ETF prices and their respective changes include: - Gold Fund ETF T+0: 9.451, up 0.255 (2.77%) [2] - Shanghai Gold ETF T+0: 9.878, up 0.263 (2.74%) [2] - Other notable ETFs also showed similar increases, with most around 2.6% to 2.7% [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - Analysts suggest that the ongoing U.S. government "shutdown" and political instability in France are contributing to increased safe-haven buying [2]. - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates that U.S. economic activity has remained stable, with slight declines in consumer spending and rising prices, reinforcing expectations for at least two more rate cuts in the coming months [3].

Core Insights - The December 2025 gold futures price increased by $142.7, closing at $4,344.3 per ounce, marking a 3.40% rise, driven by stable safe-haven demand and technical buying [1] - Both gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with December gold futures opening at $4,392.0 per ounce and December silver futures at $53.765 per ounce [1] - Ongoing uncertainties such as the U.S. government shutdown, escalating U.S.-China tensions, and political instability in France are fueling safe-haven buying [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent "Beige Book" indicates stable economic activity and employment levels, but a slight decline in consumer spending and rising prices, reinforcing expectations of at least two more rate cuts in the coming months [1] Market Dynamics - Analysts from JPMorgan Asset Management suggest favorable supply-demand dynamics indicate significant upside potential for the market [2] - Technically, December gold futures bulls hold a strong overall advantage, with the next upward price target being a breakthrough of the solid resistance level at $4,400, while bears aim to break below the solid support level at $4,000 [2] Silver Market - The December silver futures price rose by $2.052, closing at $53.430 per ounce, reflecting a 3.99% increase [3]

Core Insights - The December 2025 gold futures price increased by $142.7, closing at $4344.3 per ounce, marking a rise of 3.40% [1] - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs due to stable safe-haven demand and technical buying [1] - The U.S. government shutdown and escalating tensions between China and the U.S., along with political instability in France, are contributing to increased safe-haven buying [1] Market Dynamics - The December gold futures opened higher in the Asian market, reaching a new historical high of $4392.0 per ounce, while December silver futures hit $53.765 per ounce [1] - The latest Federal Reserve "Beige Book" indicates minimal changes in U.S. economic activity, stable employment levels, but a slight decline in consumer spending and rising prices, reinforcing expectations of at least two more rate cuts in the coming months [1] - Analysts from JPMorgan Asset Management suggest favorable supply-demand dynamics indicate significant upside potential for the market [1] Technical Analysis - December gold futures bulls hold a strong overall technical advantage, with the next upward price target being a breakthrough of the solid resistance level at $4400 [2] - The next downward price target for bears is to break below the solid technical support level at $4000 [2] Silver Market - The December silver futures price rose by $2.052, closing at $53.430 per ounce, with a gain of 3.99% [3]

Core Insights - International spot gold prices have recently surged, breaking historical records, primarily driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing US-China trade tensions, and political uncertainties prompting safe-haven buying [1][2] - Silver and other precious metals have also experienced significant price fluctuations amid these market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold prices have reached approximately $2,180 per ounce, with an intraday high of $2,185, marking a historical peak [1] - The recent decline in US Treasury yields has reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on economic assessments being impacted by government shutdowns and slowing job market growth have been interpreted as signals for potential monetary policy easing [2] Group 2: Trade Relations and Political Factors - Ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations continue to affect market sentiment, reinforcing gold's role as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] - The US government's "Section 232" investigation into critical minerals, including silver, platinum, and palladium, has entered its final stages, raising concerns about potential changes in trade policy [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Year-to-date, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have all recorded substantial gains, driven by central bank purchases, increased ETF holdings, and expectations of rate cuts from major central banks [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering terminating some trade relations with China, including those related to edible oils, as stated by President Trump [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at a potential 25 basis point rate cut later this month, despite the government shutdown affecting the Fed's economic assessment [2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.029%, while the real yield dropped nearly 3.5 basis points to 1.728%, which is favorable for gold prices [2] Group 2 - FPG analyst Felix believes that gold prices are likely to rise above the $4100 per ounce mark, driven by dovish comments from Powell and increased safe-haven buying due to U.S.-China trade tensions [3] - Technical indicators show that gold remains in a strong upward trend, with the 20-day simple moving average currently at $3863.90 per ounce [3] - Analyst Chad indicates that gold has room for further increases, with support levels at $4123.20, $4090.00, and $4078.10 per ounce, and resistance at $4200.00 per ounce [4] Group 3 - Current market indicators for gold show a bearish daily direction, with resistance levels at 4186, 4200, and 4210, and support levels at 4170, 4161, and 4149 [5] - The momentum for gold is strong, with a quantitative reference value greater than 67.1% [5] - The euro to dollar exchange rate shows a bearish daily direction, with resistance at 1.1628, 1.1657, and 1.1714, and support at 1.1603, 1.1577, and 1.1554 [6]