Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, the concentrated release of market safe - haven buying demand may continue to push up the precious metals market. However, due to the market's prior pricing of potential conflicts, there may be a correction pressure after the action is implemented. The impact of the US - Iran war on the supply side of platinum and palladium may be limited. Operationally, it is recommended to focus on range - bound trading [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 626.50 yuan/gram, up 4.60 yuan; palladium's main contract closing price is 463.65 yuan/gram. Platinum's main contract position is 10387.00 hands, up 90.00 hands; palladium's main contract position is 3179.00 hands, and the position of platinum's main contract decreased by 277.00 hands [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (Pt9995) is 606.35 yuan/gram, down 3.64 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 431.00 yuan/gram, up 6.00 yuan. The basis of platinum's main contract is - 20.15 yuan/gram, down 16.29 yuan; the basis of palladium's main contract is - 32.65 yuan/gram, up 1.40 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.64, down 0.15; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.72%, down 0.02%. The VIX volatility index is 19.86, up 1.23 [2] Industry News - On February 28 local time, the US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran. US President Trump said the attack aimed to destroy Iran's missile industry and navy, and prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the goal was to overthrow the Iranian regime. Fed Governor Milan advocates early and significant interest - rate cuts, reiterating a need to cut rates by 100 basis points in 2026. The US January PPI rose 2.9% year - on - year, with an expected 2.6% and a previous value of 3%; it rose 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected 0.3%. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 6.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 93.6%. By April, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 22.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 76.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.2%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 43.9% [2] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Power shortages and insufficient capital expenditure in South Africa restrict production growth, Russia faces sanctions risks, and North American mine production cuts further tighten supply. Demand side: Automobile catalysts are still the largest application area. The process of platinum replacing palladium may slow down recently due to the platinum price exceeding the palladium price. China's platinum jewelry demand has reached a seven - year high due to the substitution effect of high gold prices. The hydrogen energy field, although with a small base, is growing rapidly, providing long - term support for platinum. Investment demand: Platinum ETFs had net inflows in 2025, but some profit - taking occurred due to the February correction, while physical investment demand remained strong. Palladium investment demand is continuously weak, with limited marginal impact on prices [2] Key Focus - 23:00 on March 2, US ISM Manufacturing PMI; 00:30 on March 3, Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth forecast; 18:00 on March 3, Eurozone CPI year - on - year growth rate; 21:15 on March 4, US ADP private employment report; 20:30 on March 5, US January trade balance data [2]

Core Viewpoint - Continued inflow of safe-haven funds into U.S. Treasury bonds has led to a decline in the 2-year Treasury yield, reaching a low of 3.373%, the lowest level since August 2022 [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - Short-term and medium-term U.S. Treasury yields fell by 5-6 basis points during the day [1] - The 2s10s yield spread increased by approximately 1 basis point [1] - Other maturities of Treasury yields also reached year-to-date lows, with the 5-year yield approaching 3.5%, marking the lowest level since October [1]

Group 1: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is experiencing mixed fundamentals, with industrial demand from AI and electric vehicle sectors providing support, while solar manufacturers are substituting copper for silver to reduce costs, which suppresses silver prices [1] - There is a structural supply shortage in the silver market, indicated by a 10% premium in the Chinese spot market, reflecting localized tightness [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has tightened delivery rules, limiting speculation, while a strong dollar is weakening non-dollar demand [1] Group 2: Political Developments Impacting Government Funding - White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated that President Trump will call for bipartisan agreement to restore normal operations of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) during the State of the Union address [2] - Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressed frustration over the lack of communication and substantive negotiations between the parties regarding DHS funding [2] - Trump criticized Democrats for their role in the government shutdown and called for full restoration of DHS funding support during his address [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of London Silver Prices - London silver prices are fluctuating around $86 per ounce, showing a strong consolidation pattern in the short term [3] - The price is firmly above the 20-day and 50-day moving average support levels, with the MACD indicator maintaining a bullish crossover above the zero line, indicating dominant bullish momentum [3] - Key support is identified in the $83-$84 range, with potential testing of $80 if broken; resistance is focused on the $88-$89 area, with a breakthrough possibly challenging $92 [3]

Core Viewpoint - UBS predicts that gold prices will reach $6,200 per ounce in the first three quarters of the year, followed by a decline to $5,900 per ounce by the end of December. Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, forecasting a gradual increase to $5,400 per ounce by year-end [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - London gold has rebounded for four consecutive trading days, surpassing $5,200 per ounce, while London silver has shown even greater elasticity, rising approximately 14.03% [1]. - As of February 23, London gold has increased by about 3.67% during the Spring Festival holiday, with Shanghai Gold Exchange reporting a midday price of 1,147 yuan per gram, up 3.6% [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, signs of economic stagflation in the U.S., and the impact of tariff decisions on the dollar [1][2]. - The U.S. economy is showing signs of stagflation, with GDP growth in Q4 2025 significantly below expectations and the lowest annual growth rate since 2021. Additionally, the core PCE price index for December rose to 3.0%, exceeding expectations [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility in gold prices is due to ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and geopolitical issues, with some investors adopting a cautious stance [3]. - Despite the fluctuations, central banks are expected to continue accumulating gold as a hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, although they may pause purchases until price volatility stabilizes [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Adjustments - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted margin levels and price fluctuation limits for several contracts, reducing the margin for gold contracts from 21% to 18% and for silver contracts from 27% to 24% [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - UBS recommends that investors allocate a moderate single-digit percentage of their portfolios to gold as a strategic diversification tool to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks [5].

Core Viewpoints - UBS predicts that gold prices will reach $6200 per ounce in the first three quarters of the year, followed by a decline to $5900 per ounce by the end of December [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish medium-term outlook for gold, forecasting a gradual increase to $5400 per ounce by the end of the year under baseline scenarios [1] Market Dynamics - The international precious metals market has shown a rebound after a period of decline, with London gold rising above $5200 per ounce and silver showing even greater volatility, with a 14.03% increase [1] - As of February 23, London gold had accumulated a rise of approximately 3.67% during the Spring Festival holiday, while Shanghai gold T+D reported a 3.6% increase [1] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, signs of stagflation in the US economy, and the impact of tariff decisions on the US dollar [1][2] - The US Supreme Court's ruling against the Trump administration's tariff policies has heightened trade uncertainties, further boosting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates that the US economy is experiencing stagflation, with GDP growth in Q4 2025 significantly below expectations and the lowest annual growth rate since 2021 [4] - The core PCE price index for December showed a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, exceeding expectations, which suggests persistent inflationary pressures alongside low growth [4] Central Bank Behavior - Recent volatility in gold prices has led many central banks to temporarily slow down their gold purchases, although they still intend to increase holdings to hedge against geopolitical and financial risks [5] - The Cboe gold ETF implied volatility has risen sharply, indicating that gold prices remain in a high-volatility environment [5] Margin Adjustments - In response to market conditions, the Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted margin levels and price fluctuation limits for several contracts, reducing the margin for gold contracts from 21% to 18% and for silver contracts from 27% to 24% [6] Investment Recommendations - UBS suggests that investors allocate a moderate single-digit percentage of their portfolios to gold as a strategic diversification tool to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks [6] - Investors seeking returns may consider leveraging the current high price volatility for profit opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran has heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, resulting in a significant price increase for gold [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with a notable increase after hitting a low of $5122, reaching a high of $5237 [1][4]. - The market is currently focused on key support levels at $5120, $5000, and resistance levels at $5176, $5200, and a further target of $5260 [1][4]. - The recent four-day rally in gold prices is attributed to rising risk aversion due to stalled diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, with the next round of talks scheduled for February 26 in Geneva [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a strong short-term performance for gold, with key support levels identified at $5200 and $5176, and resistance levels at $5280 and $5300 [4]. - Technical indicators such as the 5-day moving average, MACD, KDJ, and RSI suggest potential for further upward movement in gold prices [4].

Group 1 - The market is reacting to the new round of tariff policies announced by the Trump administration and recent economic data from the U.S., leading to increased uncertainty about the economic outlook [1][2] - Concerns about slowing economic growth, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions such as U.S.-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine talks, have driven significant safe-haven buying in the precious metals market [1][2] - As a result, international gold and silver prices saw notable increases during the Asian trading session on the 23rd, with gold prices approaching the $5200 per ounce mark [1][2] Group 2 - As of 9:35 AM Beijing time on the 23rd, the London spot gold price was reported at $5156.59 per ounce, up 1.13%, while the spot silver price was $87.447 per ounce, up 3.40% [1][2] - The April gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange was reported at $5180.52 per ounce, reflecting a 1.96% increase, and the March silver futures price was $87.195 per ounce, with a 5.89% rise [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a new round of tariff policies by the Trump administration, combined with recent economic data, has led to increased uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, prompting a significant rise in safe-haven buying in the precious metals market [1] Economic Data and Tariff Policy - Investors are concerned that the new tariff policies will exacerbate the already slowing economic growth in the U.S. [1] - The backdrop of ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the Russia-Ukraine talks, adds to the market's uncertainty [1] Precious Metals Market Reaction - There has been a notable increase in safe-haven buying in the precious metals market, resulting in a significant rise in international gold and silver prices [1] - As of 9:35 AM Beijing time on the 23rd, the London spot gold price was reported at $5,156.59 per ounce, up 1.13%, while the spot silver price was $87.447 per ounce, up 3.40% [1] - The April gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange was reported at $5,180.52 per ounce, with an increase of 1.96%, and the March silver futures price was $87.195 per ounce, up 5.89% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing uncertainty in US-Iran negotiations and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve continue to attract both dip-buying and safe-haven buying, providing support for gold prices [1][2][5]. Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a rebound, reaching a high of $5086 before facing resistance, and subsequently fluctuated between $5010 and $5060, currently trading around $5050 [1][5]. - The market sentiment was influenced by the US issuing an emergency security alert regarding the evacuation from Iran, and Iran indicating the long-term nature of the negotiations, which raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence [2][6]. - The easing of tensions in the Middle East and a recovery in market risk appetite, as evidenced by rising US stock markets, have diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][6]. Technical Indicators - The daily chart indicates that gold is currently in a wide trading range, with support levels at $5010 and $4965, and resistance levels at $5100 and $5200 [3][7]. - Short-term technical indicators show a potential for a rebound, with the 5-day moving average turning upward, and MACD and KDJ indicators showing signs of bullish momentum [7].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The core viewpoint indicates that spot gold prices have declined, trading around $5035 per ounce, with a daily drop of approximately 0.4%, ending a two-day upward trend [1][5][6] - Political uncertainty has been alleviated following Japan's snap election results, and easing tensions in the Middle East have contributed to a more optimistic market sentiment, applying downward pressure on gold [1][5] - Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will implement at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by 2026, which, along with concerns about the Fed's independence, has weakened the dollar, providing support for gold [1][6] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold opened high and fluctuated, reaching a peak of $5086, closing with a bullish candle above the 10-day moving average, driven by three main factors: continuation of last Friday's bullish momentum, persistent safe-haven buying, and a decline in the dollar [2][7] - Despite the recent bullish trend, caution is advised as the upward movement has shown signs of weakness, indicating that the current strength may be a rebound from previous overselling rather than a trend reversal [2][7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on buying on dips, with resistance levels identified at $5090-$5140 and support levels at $4980-$4930 [2][7] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - WTI crude oil prices are maintaining high levels around $64 amid a backdrop of supply easing, with market sentiment still influenced by geopolitical factors [3][8] - The recent de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East has reduced some risk premiums, as the U.S. and Iran have expressed willingness to continue negotiations regarding nuclear issues [3][8] - However, the rise in oil prices is not due to fundamental improvements in supply and demand but rather emotional support from ongoing geopolitical risks, with the market facing mid-term pressure due to accumulating global inventories [3][8] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates that oil prices have ended a series of bullish closes, with a significant bearish candle forming, yet the overall trend remains bullish based on the moving average system [4][9] - The MACD indicator shows that bullish momentum is still dominant, suggesting an upward trajectory for oil prices in the medium term [4][9] - Short-term strategies recommend buying on dips, with resistance levels at $65.5-$66.5 and support levels at $63.0-$62.0 [4][9]