Group 1 - The recent poor performance of the US non-farm payroll data has increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to a decline in the US dollar and bond yields, which supports the rise in gold prices [1][3] - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising to $3382 before retreating to a low of $3349, and then rebounding to a high of $3390, indicating a stabilization and upward trend after testing the daily Bollinger band middle track [3] - The downward revision of employment data for June and May by 285,000, resulting in only 19,000 and 14,000 new jobs added respectively, suggests that the US labor market is not as robust as the Federal Reserve perceives, further fueling expectations for a rate cut [3] Group 2 - President Trump's comments regarding a potential announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair and upcoming tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors have bolstered safe-haven buying in gold, contributing to its price increase [3] - The technical analysis indicates that the support levels for gold are at $3362 and $3345, while resistance levels are at $3385 and $3400, reflecting the market's current trading range [1]

Zaner Metals副总裁兼高级金属策略师Peter Grant表示："随着8月1日关税最后期限的临近，我们看到贸 易不确定性有所上升，今日只是重新出现少量避险买盘。" 世界黄金协会将需求增长归因于市场对包括黄金ETF和金币及金条在内的投资需求强劲。 另外，市场分析人士将金价走弱、白银期价遭受强劲抛售压力部分归因于过去两天美铜期价暴跌带来的 溢出性影响。因美国总统特朗普宣布的美国进口铜关税政策将精炼铜排除在50%进口关税之外， COMEX市场铜期价前一交易日暴跌超18%，31日继续惯性下跌超4%。月线图上，COMEX基准铜期货 下跌14.38%，创下2011年9月以来的最大月度跌幅，也结束了此前连续两个月上涨的走势。 消息面上，美国商务部31日发布的数据显示，美联储最青睐的通胀指标美国个人消费支出（PCE）价格 指数6月同比上涨2.6%，高于预期的2.5%；环比上涨0.3%，符合预期。不过，黄金市场对最新的通胀数 据反应平平。 另外，在经济不确定性加剧和金价创纪录的背景下，散户投资者大举重返市场，重新点燃了全球黄金需 求。世界黄金协会在其新发布的第二季度黄金需求趋势报告中强调，尽管金价创下历史新高，但今年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing intensified bullish and bearish forces due to ongoing global trade tensions and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Tensions - The U.S. has increased tariff demands on the EU, prompting the EU to prepare for a third round of countermeasures [1]. - Thailand has introduced a strategy to exempt 90% of U.S. goods from tariffs, while Brazil's President Lula stated he would not yield to U.S. tariff pressures [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials have differing views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for a 25 basis point cut in July, while others believe a short-term cut is challenging [1][2]. - Economic data shows a rise in U.S. retail sales by 0.6% in June, which diminishes the urgency for rate cuts [1]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. government's "Big and Beautiful" bill is projected to increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio above 124% [2]. - The core CPI for June rose to 2.9% year-on-year, while the overall CPI reached 2.7%, indicating persistent inflation that may suppress rate cut expectations [2]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Silver prices have shown stronger upward momentum compared to gold, with New York silver prices surpassing $39.5 per ounce, marking a historical high [3]. - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, is expected to support silver prices, with a projected increase in silver demand of approximately 2,000 tons per year due to expanding solar installations [3]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The liquidity tightening has provided upward momentum for silver prices, with ETF holdings reaching a historical high of 1.13 billion ounces [4]. - Short-term precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, with key support levels for gold at $3,300 per ounce and for silver at $37 per ounce [4]. - Long-term trends indicate that the acceleration of de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases will systematically elevate gold price levels [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving up silver prices, with a notable increase in safe-haven buying [1][3] - As of July 17, 2025, silver ETF holdings decreased to 14,694.95 tons, down by 124.34 tons from the previous day, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2] - The recent airstrikes by Israel on Damascus have heightened concerns over geopolitical risks, which historically lead to increased silver prices as investors seek safe assets [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that if silver prices stabilize above $38 and break through the $40 mark, it would confirm a strengthening preference for inflation-hedging assets [4] - The silver price recently broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, reaching a ten-year high of $39.13, indicating a bullish market trend [4] - The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) currently provides strong short-term support at $37, while the first significant resistance level is at $40, with potential upward movement to $41.50 or $43 if broken [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Trump's tariff policies are influencing gold prices, with expectations of rising US CPI data impacting market dynamics [1][2][4] - The market anticipates that the June CPI data may show the largest monthly increase this year, which could lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, benefiting the dollar and pressuring gold prices [1][2] - Despite the pressure from rising CPI data, high inflation is also strengthening safe-haven demand for gold, providing support for its price [1][2][4] Group 2 - Gold prices faced resistance at $3365 and experienced a decline to a low of $3320, before stabilizing and trading within the range of $3320 to $3331 [1][2] - Technical indicators suggest a balanced market with potential for continued volatility, as the 5-day moving average shows a slight golden cross and other indicators reflect mixed signals [4] - The suggested trading strategy is to adopt a range-bound approach, with support levels at $3320 and $3300, and resistance levels at $3342, $3348, and $3365 [4]

Market Overview - Recent market activity has been characterized by significant volatility, particularly in gold, which experienced a price swing of over $100 in one day. This was preceded by a sharp decline of over $30 during the afternoon session, likely triggered by profit-taking from institutional positions near previous highs [1] - The subsequent rise in gold prices was largely driven by geopolitical tensions, specifically an Israeli attack on Iran, which spurred safe-haven buying. This was reflected in a simultaneous 7% increase in oil prices, indicating a strong correlation between geopolitical events and market movements [1] Upcoming Economic Events - The upcoming week is expected to feature major economic announcements, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the OPEC monthly report, which are critical for market participants [3][4] - The OPEC monthly report will provide insights into member countries' oil production, inventory, and export dynamics, serving as a key indicator for traders assessing future supply-demand balances in the oil market [4] Key Economic Indicators - On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will be closely monitored, as the central bank's stance on its ultra-loose monetary policy could significantly impact the yen and broader market sentiment [6] - The U.S. retail sales data, known as "the terror data," will be released on the same day, directly reflecting consumer spending strength, which is a crucial component of GDP. Stronger-than-expected results could bolster the dollar and suppress gold prices, while weaker results may heighten market concerns about economic prospects [7] Oil Market Dynamics - On Wednesday, the EIA will release its weekly oil inventory report, which will provide a clear picture of supply-demand dynamics in the U.S. energy market. A significant drop in inventory levels typically indicates rising demand or constrained supply, which is bullish for oil prices [8] - Current market focus is on Middle Eastern geopolitical developments, U.S. shale oil recovery, and the pace of global demand recovery, all of which could influence OPEC's outlook for oil prices in the second half of the year [5] Federal Reserve and Bank of England Decisions - Thursday will feature the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is anticipated to be a major market event. The accompanying dot plot and economic projections will be critical for understanding the Fed's future policy direction [10] - The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision on the same day, with potential for significant volatility in the pound if unexpected policy shifts occur [12] Trading Considerations - Traders are advised to be cautious during the upcoming week due to the anticipated volatility from major economic data releases. Proper position sizing and risk management strategies are essential to navigate the expected market fluctuations [17]

Group 1 - The overall trend of gold last week showed a pattern of rising and then falling, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties, leading to safe-haven buying [1][2] - Key resistance levels for gold are noted at $3364, $3384, and $3400, while support levels are at $3335 and $3300 [1][4] - The market reacted to various factors including Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, significant drone conflicts in the Russia-Ukraine situation, and disappointing U.S. economic data, which contributed to gold reaching a recent one-month high [2][4] Group 2 - The dollar rebounded from a one-month low, exerting short-term pressure on gold prices, particularly after better-than-expected non-farm payroll data alleviated some investor pessimism [2][4] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish sentiment in the short term, with the 5-day moving average showing a downward trend and MACD forming a death cross [4] - Investors are advised to monitor trade dynamics, geopolitical conflicts, and monetary policy changes, as these factors could significantly impact gold prices [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the bullish signals in the futures market, particularly focusing on the influx of safe-haven buying in gold, which may lead to a potential breakthrough of the $3,400 price level this week [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Technical indicators are showing bullish signals for gold, suggesting a positive outlook for prices in the near term [1] - There is a continuous influx of safe-haven buying, indicating increased investor interest in gold as a protective asset [1] Group 2: Price Levels - The key price level to watch is $3,400, with speculation on whether it will be breached within the week [1]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a high of $3304.06 per ounce due to reports of Israel preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, which provided safe-haven buying support [1] - The outlook for the global economy has worsened, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset since Monday [1] - Despite a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and the reduction of tariffs between the U.S. and China, ongoing changes in global trade dynamics and persistent policy uncertainty continue to support gold prices [1] - Upcoming votes in the U.S. House of Representatives regarding President Trump's tax reform and changing expectations around Federal Reserve policies are expected to play a crucial role in shaping short-term gold price movements [1] Technical Analysis - Gold has shown strong performance recently, breaking through the $3300 mark and reaching $3304.06, with a need to surpass the key resistance level of $3350 to open further upside potential [2] - A solid support level has formed at $3150, and if geopolitical tensions or economic data change, gold prices could challenge the $3400 mark [2] - The current environment is favorable for gold due to geopolitical risks, a weakening dollar, and technical breakouts [2] - Gold is viewed not only as a safe-haven asset but also as a strategic asset against inflation and policy uncertainty [2] Market Data - As of the latest reports, spot gold is priced around $3295 per ounce, while spot silver is at $33.10 per ounce [3] - The U.S. dollar index is currently experiencing a volatile rebound, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [3] Trend Analysis - The current trend for gold is upward, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [7] - The dollar index is showing a downward trend, with attention on the resistance level at 100.00 [7] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices are consolidating near support levels, with a strong buyer interest around $3200 [3][7]

Group 1 - Gold prices increased by over 1% to $3,299 due to uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies leading to a weaker dollar and a decline in U.S. stocks, alongside ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine attracting safe-haven buying [1] - On May 21, gold continued to rise, reaching a one-week high of $3,314.36, driven by reports of Israel preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, further supporting safe-haven demand for gold [1] - Investors are primarily focused on U.S. tax reform news, geopolitical developments, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as well as changes in international trade dynamics [1] Group 2 - In the previous trading day, gold prices dipped to $3,204 before rebounding, with recommendations to buy between $3,206 and $3,209, resulting in significant profits as gold prices surged during the European session [3] - The daily chart shows two consecutive bullish candles, with the 5-day moving average trending upwards, and KDJ indicators transitioning from overbought to a bullish crossover, while MACD indicators show a reduction in bearish momentum [3] - The hourly chart indicates a high of $3,314.3 before a pullback, currently trading around $3,294, with KDJ indicators showing a bearish crossover and MACD indicators indicating a consolidation above the zero line, suggesting a short-term bearish trend [3] Group 3 - Recommendations for trading include buying gold around $3,261 to $3,264 with a stop loss at $3,255 and a take profit target of $3,290 to $3,300 [5] - Additionally, a recommendation to sell gold around $3,317 to $3,320 with a stop loss at $3,325 and a take profit target of $3,290 is provided [5]