【12月18日交易员称新一年货币波动性将继续减弱】交易员透露，新一年货币波动性会持续减弱，主要 央行政策路径在可预见未来已明朗。衡量十国集团货币一个月波动性的指标本周降至5.81%，为2022年 以来最低。英镑、欧元一个月波动率分别降至2014年、2024年7月以来最低。 MacroHive外汇策略师指 出，全球影响货币走势因素趋同，表明市场预期"近期风险小"。美联储准备明年进一步降息，英国央行 或效仿。瑞典、挪威和瑞士央行预计长时间维持利率不变。 日本央行可能是采取紧缩货币政策的少数 例外，欧洲央行或加入。 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 货币市场:2024年未波动降至多年低 位,明年或延续趋稳 【12月18日交易员称新一年货币波动性将继续减 弱】 交易员透露,新一年货币波动性会持续减弱, 主要央行政策路径在可预见未来已明朗。衡量十国 集团货币一个月波动性的指标本周降至5.81%,为 2022年以来最低。英镑、欧元一个月波动率分别降 至2014年、2024年7月以来最低。MacroHive外汇 策略师指出,全球影响货币走势因素趋同,表明市 场预期"近期风险小"。美联储准备明年进一步降 息,英国央 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has shown resilience recently, with a 3.4% increase in July, ending a streak of declines, despite a disappointing non-farm payroll report [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 2.7% in July, breaking a six-month downward trend [1] - Emerging market currencies, represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index, fell by 1.2% [1] - The Taiwanese dollar has appreciated approximately 9.5% this year, leading Asian currencies, while the South Korean won has risen nearly 6% [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The rebound of the dollar has led some emerging market investors to believe that the dollar will continue to rise in the coming months [1] - Barclays Bank has advised clients to avoid shorting the dollar against other Asian currencies [1] - Fidelity International noted that prolonged high US interest rates reduce the attractiveness of borrowing dollars for arbitrage trading [1] Group 3: Emerging Market Currency Dynamics - The volatility of emerging market currencies is at its lowest in a year, which diminishes demand for Asian currencies in favor of higher-yielding European and Latin American currencies [2] - The average interest rate differential for Asian currencies is negative 1.1%, indicating higher holding costs compared to potential returns from holding dollars [5] - Latin American currencies have a positive interest rate differential of 3.7%, while European and African currencies have a positive differential of 1.1% [5] Group 4: Market Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs continues to impact the attractiveness of emerging market currencies, despite some agreements reached with major trading partners [6] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a key factor influencing the dollar's trajectory [6]