Core Viewpoint - Both Jack Ma and Li Ka-shing suggest that potential homebuyers should "wait a little longer" rather than "buy as soon as possible" due to significant changes in the Chinese real estate market [1][6]. Market Status - As of September 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities has dropped to 14,447 yuan per square meter, continuing a decline for 29 months [3]. - From January to September 2024, the sales area of new residential properties was 70,284 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%. The sales revenue for new residential properties was 68,880 billion yuan, down 24% [3]. Government Policies - Local governments have implemented various measures to stimulate the market, including lifting purchase restrictions, reducing mortgage rates from a peak of over 5.88% to 3.2%, and lowering down payment ratios to 15% [4]. - A tax reduction policy has been introduced, imposing a uniform contract tax rate of 1% for homes not exceeding 140 square meters [4]. Market Trends - The effectiveness of these stimulus policies appears limited, as the real estate market is in a long-term adjustment phase, leading to confusion about whether to buy now or wait until 2025 [6]. - Jack Ma predicts that with the slowdown of urbanization, housing prices are unlikely to see significant increases in the next decade, instead remaining stable or declining [7]. - Li Ka-shing echoes this sentiment, emphasizing that housing is primarily for living, and has been selling properties at discounted prices, indicating a cautious outlook on the market [8]. Market Logic - The trend of real estate adjustment is difficult to reverse, as the market has experienced 23 years of price increases since the housing reform in 1998, with a high likelihood of a bubble correction [10]. - The price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities is as high as 40, and 25 in second and third-tier cities, making homeownership increasingly unattainable for average residents [10]. - Continuous price declines have eroded market confidence, shifting buyer sentiment from speculation to caution, as the expectation of rising prices has diminished [10]. Conclusion - Considering macroeconomic conditions, resident income levels, and market sentiment, waiting until 2025 may be a more prudent choice for potential homebuyers, as they are likely to encounter lower prices and reduced purchasing costs [11].

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is experiencing changes due to recent policy relaxations aimed at stimulating domestic demand and accommodating young buyers [2][5][10] Policy Changes - Major cities have relaxed purchase restrictions, with Beijing and Shanghai reducing the social security contribution period to 1-2 years for new buyers, while Shenzhen has eliminated restrictions in several areas [2][5] - These changes are designed to attract young professionals and new residents, making homeownership more accessible [2][5] Young Buyers' Perspectives - Young buyers are now more cautious, shifting from a mindset of "jump and reach" to "squat and wait," indicating a more conservative approach to purchasing homes [5][10] - Many young individuals prefer to increase their down payment to reduce mortgage pressure, reflecting a desire for financial stability [6][9] Housing Preferences - Young buyers are weighing the trade-offs between location and living conditions, often opting for properties in central areas despite potential compromises in living quality [7][9] - The price drop of older properties has made suburban options less appealing, as urban properties have become more affordable [8][9] Timing for Purchase - The timing for purchasing a home is subjective; while some believe lower prices indicate a good time to buy, others argue that housing should primarily be viewed as a living space rather than an investment [10][11] - For those who prioritize living quality over potential price drops, entering the market may be advisable [11][12] Market Trends - The demand for older properties in prime locations remains strong, as buyers recognize their current value and limited future supply [12][13] - The ongoing urban renewal projects are expected to enhance the living conditions of older neighborhoods, making them more attractive [13][14] Rental Market Insights - Renting is increasingly seen as a viable option for young individuals, especially those uncertain about their long-term plans [17][18] - The rental market is supported by improved regulations and the availability of affordable rental options, making it a practical choice for many [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has shifted since April, moving away from the recovery trend seen since October last year, leading to concerns about further price declines. However, the market has already undergone significant adjustments over the past 4-5 years, with many cities experiencing price drops exceeding 30%, and some over 50% from their peaks. The major risks in the market have largely been released, suggesting that substantial further declines are unlikely, especially in major cities [4][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since last year, the real estate market has been changing, with a potential turning point approaching. By September 2024, policies aimed at stabilizing the market have been introduced, showing significant support for the sector. Major cities are beginning to show signs of recovery due to these supportive measures [5]. - Despite a downturn since April, recent measures from cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have led to signs of market rebound, indicating that confidence among buyers is crucial for market activity [5]. Group 2: City-Specific Insights - In major cities, there is no shortage of potential buyers; the main issue is market confidence. New supportive measures can easily shift market expectations and stimulate activity [5]. - For those considering purchasing in smaller cities, the supply exceeds demand significantly, suggesting that prices may continue to decline. The decision to wait should depend on individual urgency and budget considerations [6].