Core Viewpoint - Both Jack Ma and Li Ka-shing suggest that potential homebuyers should "wait a little longer" rather than "buy as soon as possible" due to significant changes in the Chinese real estate market [1][6]. Market Status - As of September 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities has dropped to 14,447 yuan per square meter, continuing a decline for 29 months [3]. - From January to September 2024, the sales area of new residential properties was 70,284 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%. The sales revenue for new residential properties was 68,880 billion yuan, down 24% [3]. Government Policies - Local governments have implemented various measures to stimulate the market, including lifting purchase restrictions, reducing mortgage rates from a peak of over 5.88% to 3.2%, and lowering down payment ratios to 15% [4]. - A tax reduction policy has been introduced, imposing a uniform contract tax rate of 1% for homes not exceeding 140 square meters [4]. Market Trends - The effectiveness of these stimulus policies appears limited, as the real estate market is in a long-term adjustment phase, leading to confusion about whether to buy now or wait until 2025 [6]. - Jack Ma predicts that with the slowdown of urbanization, housing prices are unlikely to see significant increases in the next decade, instead remaining stable or declining [7]. - Li Ka-shing echoes this sentiment, emphasizing that housing is primarily for living, and has been selling properties at discounted prices, indicating a cautious outlook on the market [8]. Market Logic - The trend of real estate adjustment is difficult to reverse, as the market has experienced 23 years of price increases since the housing reform in 1998, with a high likelihood of a bubble correction [10]. - The price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities is as high as 40, and 25 in second and third-tier cities, making homeownership increasingly unattainable for average residents [10]. - Continuous price declines have eroded market confidence, shifting buyer sentiment from speculation to caution, as the expectation of rising prices has diminished [10]. Conclusion - Considering macroeconomic conditions, resident income levels, and market sentiment, waiting until 2025 may be a more prudent choice for potential homebuyers, as they are likely to encounter lower prices and reduced purchasing costs [11].

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is experiencing changes due to recent policy relaxations aimed at stimulating domestic demand and accommodating young buyers [2][5][10] Policy Changes - Major cities have relaxed purchase restrictions, with Beijing and Shanghai reducing the social security contribution period to 1-2 years for new buyers, while Shenzhen has eliminated restrictions in several areas [2][5] - These changes are designed to attract young professionals and new residents, making homeownership more accessible [2][5] Young Buyers' Perspectives - Young buyers are now more cautious, shifting from a mindset of "jump and reach" to "squat and wait," indicating a more conservative approach to purchasing homes [5][10] - Many young individuals prefer to increase their down payment to reduce mortgage pressure, reflecting a desire for financial stability [6][9] Housing Preferences - Young buyers are weighing the trade-offs between location and living conditions, often opting for properties in central areas despite potential compromises in living quality [7][9] - The price drop of older properties has made suburban options less appealing, as urban properties have become more affordable [8][9] Timing for Purchase - The timing for purchasing a home is subjective; while some believe lower prices indicate a good time to buy, others argue that housing should primarily be viewed as a living space rather than an investment [10][11] - For those who prioritize living quality over potential price drops, entering the market may be advisable [11][12] Market Trends - The demand for older properties in prime locations remains strong, as buyers recognize their current value and limited future supply [12][13] - The ongoing urban renewal projects are expected to enhance the living conditions of older neighborhoods, making them more attractive [13][14] Rental Market Insights - Renting is increasingly seen as a viable option for young individuals, especially those uncertain about their long-term plans [17][18] - The rental market is supported by improved regulations and the availability of affordable rental options, making it a practical choice for many [17][18]

PACE 0 Q app 120 S Van 而实际上，从去年开始，房地产市场已经在发生改变，一个新的拐点可能正在来到。2024年9月底，首提要促进房地产市场止跌回稳，整体房地产市场的政 策支持力度也是非常大的，房地产市场也开始出现积极的信号。 具体到城市维度，一线城市及部分强二线城市，在各项支持措施的作用下，这类城市房地产市场已经出现明显的回暖迹象，房地产市场的发展也正在逐渐进 入一个新阶段。当然今年4月份以来，房地产市场又开启了下跌调整的态势了。但随着最近北上深相继出来了新的楼市支持措施，且从近期的市场表现来 看，楼市又有反弹的迹象了。 对于像这样的大城市来说，其实是不缺购房者的，缺的只是对市场的信心。一旦有新的支持措施注入的话，市场的预期是相对比较容易改变的，市场也就会 活跃起来。 不知道想要在几个大城市买房的人是否感觉到去年9月左右的买房时机似乎比今年更好一些？当然我也知道一些人会认为后面会有更好的时机，这个就只能 是拭目以待了。房地产市场的运行规律及目前的市场走势来看，如果想在这类大城市买房的人还想继续等着房价大跌再去抄底，估计不一定能够如愿以偿。 那么如果打算在中小城市买房，有没有必要继续等待？目 ...