最近刷朋友圈、看中介动态，是不是总有种错觉——房子不是在降价，就是在降价的路上？几十万说没就没，挂了大半年连个看房电话都接不到几个。 别急着怪市场冷，有时候真不是价格问题，而是你的房子，已经悄悄掉进了"穷人房"的陷阱里。 表面看着还行，住也能将就，可一旦你想卖，就会发现：根本没人愿意接手。它就像个烫手山芋，捂在手里难受，扔出去也没人要。 本期就来聊一聊，这5类"快要成为'穷人房'的房子"，如果你手里正好有，或者正打算买，建议你耐心看完。 01、第一种：产权不明的"非常规住宅" 总价二三十万，精装修，地段还不差——这样的房子你心动吗？ 很多年轻人一看到"公寓""商住房""小产权"这类字眼，再对比高昂的住宅房价，很容易头脑一热就交了定金。 结果住进去才发现，麻烦才刚刚开始。 ■生活成本隐形翻倍： 水电商用价格，夏天开个空调，电费账单看得人心惊肉跳；没有天然气，天天用电磁炉做饭，既慢又费电。 ■落户上学是奢望：这类房子通常无法落户，以后孩子上学成了大问题，学区更是想都别想。 ■金融属性几乎为零： 银行基本不给这类房产贷款，你想买得全款，将来想卖，下家也得全款。流通性差到中介都懒得推。 ■居住体验打折：梯户比高，人员 ...

他们一般的操作手法是，以低价买入好地段老破小，只要便宜位置好，越破越好。然后廉价 装修换新，对外出租，获取名义上的高租息，通常在5%以上。出租的同时，博取拆迁预期。 可是我看到有部分专业房产投资客也在卖出高租息产品，难道这不是互道SB？ 我想到的坑点 1、未来出现大量的长租公寓或保租房，替代这种老破小，毕竟年轻人很少愿意租老破小。 2、未来有没有可能出累进制的房产税？ 3、拆迁预期落空？ 老破小租金收益率肯定是不如同地段公寓的，后者房龄短、有电梯，通常租金会更高，而房 价却更低。 就凭不能用公积金直接冲抵房租这一点，老破小在保租房面前就毫无优势，而且租金便宜也 没用，如今的大厂青年从小都是养尊处优的小皇帝，对租金根本不敏感，宁肯多花一倍钱租 崭新有青年社区氛围的保租房，看也不看便宜的老破小。 钟爱一玉 peppps 在上海，大批国企（地产集团，城投集团，陆家嘴集团，各区国企）利用划拨土地开发的低 成本公租房，保租房批量上市60万套，已经在严重冲击散客租房市场，年轻人普遍更喜欢这 种干净整洁装修新有气派大堂健身场所社区食堂咖啡厅，而且还能用公积金冲抵月租金的保 租房社区，对租金并不敏感，以新江湾城的城投宽庭为例 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of purchasing "old and dilapidated" properties has shifted, with many buyers now regretting their decisions due to various issues associated with these properties [1][11]. Group 1: Issues with "Old and Dilapidated" Properties - Many buyers of "old and dilapidated" properties are experiencing regret, as these properties have become difficult to sell and undesirable to live in [3][11]. - The environment of many "old and dilapidated" communities is poor, with inadequate security, low green coverage, and unsightly conditions such as garbage and clutter [5][6]. - The advantage of being in a good school district has diminished due to reforms in the education system, which now uses random selection for school admissions, reducing the value of these properties as school district homes [6][11]. Group 2: Financial and Structural Challenges - Buyers face difficulties in obtaining loans for "old and dilapidated" properties, as banks perceive them as high-risk due to their age and declining value [9][10]. - The likelihood of large-scale demolition of these properties is low, as high property prices have led to a preference for renovation over demolition, leaving owners stuck with properties that are hard to sell and undesirable to live in [10][11]. - The recommendation for first-time homebuyers is to consider newer properties (5-10 years old) instead of "old and dilapidated" ones, as they present fewer issues despite being more expensive [11].

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market is experiencing a significant shift, with second-hand housing transactions surpassing new housing sales, indicating a transition from speculative investment to genuine demand for living spaces [4][16]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Many homeowners are forced to sell their properties at a loss, leading to a surge in the availability of affordable "old and broken" homes, which has attracted young buyers looking for investment opportunities [4][8]. - In major cities, second-hand housing transactions have outperformed new housing, with cities like Shanghai seeing second-hand sales at 5.3 times that of new homes [4][5]. - The adjustment in the market is viewed as a necessary clearing of the previous real estate bubble, allowing genuine demand to surface [4][16]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - As of July 2024, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities have returned to 2016 levels, with significant price drops creating a favorable environment for buyers [10]. - For instance, in Guangzhou, the average price of second-hand homes fell from 29,300 yuan per square meter to 20,900 yuan per square meter, a decrease of over 8,000 yuan per square meter [13]. - The rental yield has also improved, with the rental return rate in key cities reaching 2.08%, indicating potential investment opportunities as prices stabilize [13][15]. Group 3: Buyer Behavior - The current market conditions have led to an increase in the number of motivated sellers, providing buyers with more options and better negotiation power [15]. - The trend of "buying old and broken homes" is not limited to self-occupiers but also includes investors seeking financial opportunities [14][15]. - The shift towards second-hand homes is attributed to their clear ownership and immediate availability, contrasting with the uncertainties associated with new developments [15]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The transition in the real estate market is seen as a critical factor for broader economic stability, as real estate constitutes a significant portion of household assets in China [18][19]. - The need for policy adjustments is emphasized, suggesting a shift from suppressing housing prices to supporting price stability to stimulate overall economic demand [18]. - The ultimate goal is to ensure that housing becomes accessible to more ordinary families, which could lead to a sustainable increase in economic vitality and consumer spending [19].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a significant adjustment, with a shift from speculative buying to genuine demand for housing, leading to a surge in second-hand property transactions over new ones in major cities [2][20][25]. Group 1: Market Trends - Many homeowners are forced to sell properties at a loss, leading to a significant drop in prices for older, less desirable homes, which are now seen as more affordable options [2][5]. - In key cities, second-hand home transactions have outpaced new home sales, with cities like Shanghai and Beijing seeing second-hand sales at 5.3 times and 4.8 times the volume of new homes, respectively [2][3]. - The adjustment is viewed as a necessary clearing of the previous real estate bubble, allowing genuine buyers to find opportunities [2][20]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - As of July 2024, second-hand home prices in first-tier cities have returned to levels seen in 2016, indicating a significant price correction [7]. - In Guangzhou, the average price of second-hand homes dropped from 29,300 yuan per square meter to 20,900 yuan per square meter, a decrease of over 8,000 yuan per square meter [9]. - The rental yield for second-hand properties is increasing, with a notable example being a rental return rate of 4% for a property purchased for 1.2 million yuan in Beijing [11][12]. Group 3: Buyer Behavior - The current market conditions have attracted not only first-time homebuyers but also investors looking for financial opportunities in real estate [10][19]. - The increase in second-hand property listings has provided buyers with more options, allowing them to negotiate better deals [18]. - The trend of homeowners urgently selling their properties has created a favorable environment for buyers to find bargains [6][18]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The shift in the market from speculation to genuine demand supports the idea that future policies should focus on stabilizing housing prices rather than suppressing them [23][24]. - The current market dynamics are seen as a foundation for future economic recovery, with real estate stability being crucial for overall economic health [22][28].

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is experiencing changes due to recent policy relaxations aimed at stimulating domestic demand and accommodating young buyers [2][5][10] Policy Changes - Major cities have relaxed purchase restrictions, with Beijing and Shanghai reducing the social security contribution period to 1-2 years for new buyers, while Shenzhen has eliminated restrictions in several areas [2][5] - These changes are designed to attract young professionals and new residents, making homeownership more accessible [2][5] Young Buyers' Perspectives - Young buyers are now more cautious, shifting from a mindset of "jump and reach" to "squat and wait," indicating a more conservative approach to purchasing homes [5][10] - Many young individuals prefer to increase their down payment to reduce mortgage pressure, reflecting a desire for financial stability [6][9] Housing Preferences - Young buyers are weighing the trade-offs between location and living conditions, often opting for properties in central areas despite potential compromises in living quality [7][9] - The price drop of older properties has made suburban options less appealing, as urban properties have become more affordable [8][9] Timing for Purchase - The timing for purchasing a home is subjective; while some believe lower prices indicate a good time to buy, others argue that housing should primarily be viewed as a living space rather than an investment [10][11] - For those who prioritize living quality over potential price drops, entering the market may be advisable [11][12] Market Trends - The demand for older properties in prime locations remains strong, as buyers recognize their current value and limited future supply [12][13] - The ongoing urban renewal projects are expected to enhance the living conditions of older neighborhoods, making them more attractive [13][14] Rental Market Insights - Renting is increasingly seen as a viable option for young individuals, especially those uncertain about their long-term plans [17][18] - The rental market is supported by improved regulations and the availability of affordable rental options, making it a practical choice for many [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of buying a home that provides a sense of security and happiness, advocating for purchasing existing or slightly used properties rather than new developments that may carry risks [1] Group 1: Buying Strategy - The article suggests the strategy of "buy old, buy big, and avoid three types" to navigate the housing market effectively [3] - It highlights the advantages of purchasing existing homes or newer second-hand properties, which offer more reliability compared to off-plan properties [3][6] - The article warns against the risks of buying off-plan properties, which may lead to delays and uncertainties in possession [9][12] Group 2: Property Types to Avoid - It identifies three types of properties to avoid: old and dilapidated homes, apartments, and illegal constructions [24] - Old properties, particularly those over twenty years old, are prone to maintenance issues and may lack modern amenities, making them difficult to sell later [26] - Apartments are criticized for high communal costs and poor living conditions, while illegal constructions pose legal risks of demolition [28][30] Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The article stresses the importance of choosing larger homes to accommodate future family needs, thus avoiding the hassle of moving again [15][23] - It notes that larger homes tend to retain value better in fluctuating markets, making them a safer investment [20] - The article concludes by encouraging buyers to focus on the essence of properties rather than being swayed by flashy marketing [33]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a profound transformation, with significant declines in investment and sales, while new financial policies are reshaping the market landscape [1] Group 1: Old and Dilapidated Properties - The investment logic of "old and dilapidated" properties is failing as 80% of buildings over 21 years old will be upgraded rather than demolished, leading to a return to their residential value [3] - Prices for these properties are declining, with some units in Yantai dropping below 6000 yuan per square meter, and banks are increasingly reluctant to lend against them [4] - Core school district properties still maintain high prices, but recent policy changes have led to significant price drops in areas like Hangzhou, where prices fell by 15%-30% [5] Group 2: Suburban Properties - Suburban residential inventory in Shanghai has reached 121,000 units, with a long absorption period of up to 30 months, indicating a significant oversupply [8] - Many suburban areas face a lack of infrastructure and population outflow, leading to poor sales performance and increased financial risks for developers [9] - New policies aimed at stimulating suburban markets may benefit local demand but pose risks for external investors [10] Group 3: Commercial and Office Properties - The average vacancy rate for commercial properties has exceeded 20%, with some second-tier cities seeing rates above 35%, and rental prices have dropped by 15%-20% from 2020 highs [12] - High transfer taxes in cities like Shenzhen are hindering the liquidity of commercial properties, with new regulations further restricting their marketability [13] - Some cities are experimenting with converting office spaces into affordable rental housing, but the lengthy approval processes pose challenges [14] Group 4: Policy Changes and Taxation - The expansion of property tax trials and adjustments in tax rates are expected to significantly increase holding costs for multiple property owners [16] - Local variations in tax policies require investors to optimize their tax structures while being cautious of potential policy risks [17] - A nationwide decline in housing prices is observed, with some cities experiencing extreme cases of properties selling for as low as 30,000 yuan [18] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on core locations and quality properties while considering low leverage strategies [18] - The introduction of streamlined inheritance processes for real estate may provide opportunities for more efficient property transfers [19] - A systematic approach to data verification and policy tracking is recommended to avoid pitfalls in the current market [20]

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market is no longer a "one-size-fits-all" scenario, with significant differentiation between property types and locations [3][5]. Market Dynamics - In cities like Suzhou, the second-hand housing market is highly competitive, with older properties struggling to sell unless prices are significantly reduced [3]. - Conversely, high-quality new properties are in high demand, with developers investing heavily in aesthetics and functionality, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [5]. Property Categories for Sale - **Category 1**: Poor-performing assets that are unlikely to appreciate or rent out, such as old properties in undesirable locations, should be sold to avoid further depreciation [7]. - **Category 2**: Properties that can be exchanged for better opportunities, such as older buildings in prime locations being sold for newer, more desirable units, can provide stable cash flow [8]. Properties to Hold - **Category 1**: Properties in core urban areas undergoing redevelopment may benefit from government incentives and infrastructure improvements, making them valuable to hold [9]. - **Category 2**: High-quality improvement housing that meets national standards is receiving favorable policy treatment, making it wise to retain these assets [9]. - **Category 3**: Properties with rental yields above 2% are recommended for holding, especially those yielding over 3%, as they provide stable cash flow during market downturns [9]. Financial Considerations - Mortgage rates have been decreasing, reducing monthly payment burdens for homeowners, which may lead to increased affordability and potentially higher property prices in the future [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent high-level meeting has signaled a significant shift in China's real estate policy, moving away from the previous model of extensive new construction to a focus on improving existing housing quality and urban living conditions [1][6][12] Group 1: Policy Changes - The meeting did not mention any stimulus for the real estate market, indicating a departure from the past practices of using housing as a means for economic growth [1][6] - The new focus is on "internal development," emphasizing the need to repair and enhance existing infrastructure rather than building new properties [1][8] - The concept of "resilient cities" was introduced, which aims to improve urban living conditions and infrastructure rather than just increasing the number of buildings [9] Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is a significant oversupply of housing, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, with many properties remaining unoccupied [7][10] - The leverage ratio among households has increased to 63.7%, indicating that families are more indebted than before, which limits their ability to purchase new homes [7] - The demographic shift shows a declining birth rate, which raises concerns about future housing demand as fewer young people are entering the market [7][10] Group 3: Investment Implications - The era of easy profits from real estate speculation is over, and future investments must focus on property quality and livability rather than mere location [10][11] - Properties that do not meet modern living standards, such as older buildings without elevators, are likely to depreciate in value as younger buyers prefer newer, well-maintained homes [10][11] - The emphasis on "urban renewal" suggests that investments should be directed towards improving existing properties rather than expecting large-scale redevelopment [10][12]